Stock Ticker RICK on the Move Today
Interesting action since last earnings: a huge pop on the day of earnings then a slow, low volume drift almost all the way back to where it started. Today we have a nice pop around +5.5% on decent volume. News was pretty minor - they are opening up another breastraunt in Houston.
I'm up to 4000 share now, and eagerly awaiting the next earnings the first week of Feb.
I'm up to 4000 share now, and eagerly awaiting the next earnings the first week of Feb.
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73 comments
For that matter, I'd feel kinda' goofy if I was one of those people who bought in at $12 - lol.
Of course, at least there is an upside for those people who will likely never see their share values recovered. Now that many other stocks are hitting all time highs, they have something that they can sell at a loss to apply against realized gains for tax purposes. Cup half full and all. :)
Anyway, looks like the next earnings report is on Feb 10. Let's see what happens between now and then and then on earnings day itself. Unlike you I think this stock is very likely to take out the all time highs. Maybe this year, or maybe in the next three who knows for sure, but is looking strong lately.
Oh then, you were also an idiot when you bought again around $10.40 after RickyBoy finally found the cojones to start talking about what trash it was again. Now it's around $11.50, so again he sure proved how little you know, didn't he?)
(Holy fuck is my logic bad. But I more than make up for it by the sheer volume and loudness of my vitriol. Yes, I guess I am a complete spazz and a fuckhead. But that's why they call me... The Jestie-Girl!)
Just fuckin' fuck everything!
Seems to be what happens to 99% of the population as they get older.
Lol. I'm not wrong.
ALSO - you'll notice how scared I got above when you said "put it to the test". At first I said I didn't think you owned any stock, not even $100 worth. Then I watered my argument down to, "oh yeah, well your not a high powered businessman (I know you never claimed that, but I doubt anyone would check, so I'll just bluff and say you did) and on top of that make $100,000's in the market". Bit of a change huh? Doesn't even $100 worth of stock to doesn't own several hundred thousand. Hope you can't tell how nervous I am.
Oh, just fuckin' fuck everything anyway!
Run, jestsie, run!
Seriously? BAC, like many bank stocks, had one long multi-year run-up and then cratered when the banking system teetered on collapse due to the mortgage meltdown. Also a shitty deal indeed for any investor who bought in near the highs, but at least understandable. Prior to that, BAC was a conservative, dividend paying stock for a very long time and, with the changes in banking regs and mortgage lending practices, it is highly unlikely that we will see a re-occurrence of that type of event again in our lifetime.
RICK is a dogshit micro-cap stock with a price that moves with almost no rhyme or reason based solely upon the trading whims of what I suspect is a small number of investors. Way too small and too easy for those with an agenda to manipulate.
As Matt Damon said in "Rounders", if you can't spot the sucker at the table in the first 30 minutes, then you are the sucker. This adage most definitely holds true for anyone who contributes to a price run-up in RICK. ;)
No, RickyBoy, the reasons are pretty obvious, which is how I called the moves ahead of time.
The fact that you don't understand why stock moves doesn't mean the reasons aren't there (e.g. a company growing >20% with projected EPS of $1.70 should be valued around where?).
Back in mid $8's the reason why it was obvious to me that this thing was going to go up, were somewhat subtle. Now they are pretty obvious:
a) Growing >20% on projected EPS of $1.70 puts a reasonable valuation where? (Hint: it more than double current stock price)
b) From the conference call and other source we know the Texas economy where most of their clubs are is growing rapidly (due to a domestic oil boom)
At this point, you and your titanic ego and not being able to admit you are wrong about things you said in the past are what makes you blind to what is obvious here.
But I have some sympathy for you dilemma, believe it, or not. Your choices are : a) Admit you were wrong and then you know I'll never leave you alone about it or b) hang in there and hope things turn around for you, but risk burying yourself deeper. Given guys with your (self-confessed) "personality damage" have trouble thinking beyond the very short term, it's not too surprising you choose the second course of action.
All too funny!
The year over year growth in sales revenues for existing units was essentially flat, which is actually kinda' concerning when you consider that the economy supposedly grew and improved over that timeframe.
Ruff ruff baby!
Ah, still wanting to think you are Gordon Gekko, huh, RickyBoy?
Couple little problems you are going to have with that:
a) You have openly confessed to being a failure in the corporate world as a consequence of your "personality damage". See
https://www.tuscl.net/postread.php?PID=2…
where SippyCup cut and pastes your article. Sorry that you just can't hack a 9:5 in the corporate world, RickyBoy. Not uncommon for people with your "personality damage". Just don't at the same time try and pretend you are Gordon Gekko
b) Gordon Gekko actually had some talent in the stock market. You, on the other hand, call something a dog and then yell "sell! sell!" as it moves 40% up on high volume. At the same time, rather than figuring out what is really going on, or, at minimum, admitting you are wrong you chalk it all up to a conspiracy theory and warn that the SEC will be on it. Nope, not exactly a Gordon Gekko move.
But hey, RickyBoy, maybe you can still find some solice for yourself. Be the only guy wearing a suit in a dive club for a couple of hours and let your imagination run wild. Heck, pay the girls $125 an hour just to talk to you and play along. :-)
The reality though is that any kid who passed even Level I of the CFA exam could readily slice and dice this companies numbers up for what they are. It is all right there.
But nice attempt at noise to obscure your lack of response to the data. Hey, maybe if you cheer-lead long and loud enough, the CEO will give you a thank you ride on one of the multiple corporate jets purchased at shareholder expense.
I was particularly impressed with one of his latest examples of good decision making, which was the financing of yet a third multi-million dollar corporate plane in 2012 at an interest rate north of 8%.
An inability to spur organic growth in existing clubs and continued bad decision making on multiple fronts (debt, purchase decisions, etc.). Oh yeah, I really want to trust those people with my investment capital. :)
As for your stats and CFA crap. Have ever noticed how analysts lag the market? They will have a price target of $450 on AAPL then when it hits $650 they'll raise it to $720. Then it drops to $380 they'll lower it to $420... If your basing your invests off of them, well best of luck to you! :-)
As for your supposed small business. Let's high powered corporate exec, Gekko like in stature that you wanted to be, or, assuming you aren't full of it small time small business owner. Yep, you came up a little short of being Gordon Gekko didn't you?
And here's a hint RickyBoy - debt means something entirely different to growth stocks then it does steady large cap dividend payers. Debt can be dealt with later if growth is good. You still seem to think those buying RICK last year were obvilious to the debt situation and other problems. They knew, Rick, and bought anyway. That should tell you something.
But calling RICK a "growth" company is rather generous, no? This is not soem startup tech venture, with limiltess growth potential, or even a unique coffee or food franchise with looking to expand to untouched areas. This company has been publicly traded for almost 20 years, is not offering anything truly novel and is in a pretty damned mature (and highly regulated) industry. Sure it is buying a few things, but a "growth company" is quite a bit of a stretch.
And of course their debt matters dipshit, because it is limiting their ability to easily obtain additional capital on reasonable terms, which in turn limits their "growth" potential. I guess that the capital markets don't have as rosy a view as you about how easy it will be for them to earn their way out of the hole, which is why this firm keeps getting bent over the table for small additional loans.
But good luck and hang in there! ;)
Even to the extent - check this out - that if you really are one - which I doubt (since you seem more like the shifty salesman type) but let's suppose you are one. Well, first of all, in that case you are probably doing something dishonest. But if somehow IRL you are basically honest (highly unlikely and would be 180 from your TUSCL persona), then, even though you have at least half a dozen other strikes against you (e.g. drinking and driving, and putting your wife at risk of cervical cancer and STDs due to your reckless unprotected sex with strippers "generally" when it is available) then that would be something that would be a definite plus for you.
Heck, if true, and given all those qualifiers, it's possible that if you drop the shame you feel for your two big failures in your twenties:
a) not having become Gordon Gekko, and
b) not having been able to stayed married into the rich family as was your plan
if you could drop all your shame and guilt over that, RickyBoy, and recognize that small business owner is an accomplishment even if you never become Gordon Gekko, then someday your behavior might improve and you might turn out to be an okay human being. Since you are 43 it's still possible. While alutard and tittyfuck are so old they are past the point of no hope now, you still got a bit of time left for yourself. (And, according to research you would be about 7 years ahead of schedule for people with your specific type of "personality damage" to, maybe, come down to earth.)
Now as for analysts. I won't say I have "contempt" for them. They basically have an impossible job. They have to come out and set public price targets which will move some pretty big money, but not the real big money that is the market. It is somewhat like dropping fairly intelligent people into a poker game, but told they have to play with a rather small stack compared to the big players, and with their cards exposed, while the big players get to hide their cards.
Analysts are also up against the problem of the "reflexivity" of markets (google George Soros for more). Basically the market through it's moves, right or wrong, sets the wheels in motion to prove itself right.
Let's take RICK for example. If the market decides its going to rally it like crazy then RICK starts to have options about what to do with their debt. They can do a secondary and presto! make a bunch of that debt go away. And then they have a nicer balance sheet, and now even the CFAs can see it's a buy. And the market was proven right after all.
Conversely, if the market decides to just sell with abandon, well good luck to them offering their stock up to get money to expand. And they swirl downward and the market is proven right again.
So once you have all the CFAs lining up one way, you might get the market to move the other way "rightly" or "wrongly", and then, by reflexivity, have itself proven right.
Beyond that I do think CFAs are a bit rigid in their thinking, trying to fit everything into simplistic models, not taking into account sentiment, what other CFAs will do, and how the market is positioned, but, as I say above, even if they corrected all that, they would still, basically have an impossible job.
And here it comes back down, as utterly expected. Trading at 10.58 as I type this. Somebody was trying hard to keep the price above 11, purchasing blocks each time the price dipped under, but that has stopped for now.
"How much for that doggy in the window? Ruff! Ruff!"
I'll ask here though since I want to get you on the record: you think I should sell it here today or see if the market in general calms down and RICK gets going on earnings again?
Still didn't answer my question if I should sell today, RickyBoy. Never willing to stick your neck out on anything. Only willing to wait until the broad market sells off for a week then kibitz that RICK is also down? Lot of guts you have there, RickyBoy. :-)
You keep on buying that good stuff. The CEO needs another jet! :)
As I say you are complete and utter dipshit when it comes to stock analysis as your track record on this one proves.
Too funny!
Ruff ruff baby!
But what do you think, RickyBoy, should I dump everything now? Want to get you to say something concrete for once regarding buy or sell of the stock.
If you could dump it a 11.50 or higher I would say do it, but that is doubtful. The stock is already starting what I suspect will be a tail spin.
I took a brief look at those financials and...wow. Even worse than before. Soon they'll be back out for more financing, I expect at rates north of 9% this time.
It is obvious that they are in an all or nothing gamble to try outgrow their current predicament, but that doesn't work if you lose almost all of your revenue gains from new properties to reductions of revenues in existing properties, which is what happened last quarter. So now their debt issues compound without the additional expected revenue gains.
And all of this most certainly includes the Sword of Damocles hanging over their heads in the form of that huge patron tax liability. They are down to arguing technicalities now and eventually some court is going to tell them to pay what they owe. Their audit firm should be brought up on charges for the ridiculous lack of full disclosure regarding what happens if they lose. No doubt that they are desperate to grow cash flows to a point where that won't be a solvency killer, so in the meantime they are playing for time and expanding as rapidly as possible.
What a fucking mess. It will be a minor miracle if this company doesn't eventually end up in bankruptcy court.
Anyway, I hope it does drop to $10.50 before breaking out above $12.75. I'll go back up to 4000 down there.
It may be next year or a number of years from now, but sooner or later this company is going to find its way into a bankruptcy proceeding. I am sure of it. What was scary about last quarter's results was that it showed how vulnerable their current strategy is to failure. They have little room to maneuver now.
RickyBoy - everything you have stated (when true) is already known. Yet the stock fails to collapse. You add no insights, and just trying frantically to be "not wrong".
This is why I do not try to time the market or invest in things that require a lot of help to turn out well. RICK is an ideal example of a stock that has already fucked investors with an elephant dick and stands a likely chance of doing so again at some point in the near future. They have backed themselves in a corner and now just need too many things to go right, including (1) continued economic growth; (2) continued organic growth in their existing properties; (3) their bets to turn out right on this flurry of new construction/acquisitions; and (4) continued access to capital, since their cash flows are insufficient to cover their short-term obligations.
I doubt that any serious investors are trading RICK at this point. This is a novelty stock - nothing more. They only people making serious money off of RICK are the senior management of the company. If the board of the company was anything other than a rubber stamp, they would have ousted the existing shitheads a long time ago.
Claim RickyBoy? I've announced all my trades beforehand and it is all there to verify. Result up over 40%. Meanwhile you have been screaming stay out because the sky is falling. Your net result 0%.
RickyBoy: " Market timers/momentum traders always get fucked eventually "
Always, RickyBoy? You sure about that? How about your good buddy txtittyfan? (Ooops, looks you threw him under the bus again with that statement! But what the hell, he's a homo anyway and doesn't help you that much anyway, so what the heck?) Too funny!
Also if you do anything other than pick stocks at random (e.g. preferring value over growth stocks) you are timing the market yourself. You also do the same yourself when you said sell above $11.50 if you can. You also are timing the market when you say above it's going to all come crashing down in the next year or two. (If you are so confident though, go ahead and short it. 100% return in 2 years is nothing to sneeze at.)
RickyBoy: "I doubt that any serious investors are trading RICK at this point."
Right, which explains that big move late August/early September last year and why it now gets bought on dips.
Bottom line, RickyBoy. Your analysis is pure ass-clownery. The market fails to agree with you. So I have to decide to listen RickyBoy (who has never been right on this stock) or the market which is moving exactly opposite to his analysis.
Gee, RickyBoy, think I'm going to have to listen to the market given that choice no matter how much bluster you put up.
And one is not "timing" the market by picking good value stocks. Indeed, the whole point of a value stock is to pick a company with some resiliency. Certain energy MLPs (the infrastructure ones) and vice stocks (alcohol and tobacco) are two examples. Others also exist, but you don't need to know my whole portfolio. ;)
The point is holding things that will provide value (read: returns) over time. Now value companies take their bumps and bruises too during down markets, but their earnings are often less correlated to economic indicators and they tend to recover their value quickly when markets rebound. That is not to say that one should be married to a position, but I go in assuming the long play.
RICK, on the other hand, is a piece of shit stock from a company that is run by a maggot who is more concerned with having a fleet of jets to play with than in providing shareholder value. They also have delusions of grandeur, which has led them to squander a fuckload of money on things like their failed Las Vegas experiment. Indeed, how they have fucked this up so badly baffles me, especially in what is traditionally such a profitable business.
And now here they are, forced to try to outrun their mounting debt issues and praying that they can keep the Texas tax authorities at bay for some time to come.
But hell yes, let's give them even more money to squander. ;)
My prediction is that this company is eventually going to be in a bankruptcy proceeding. They may hold out for a few more years or so, but their current course is unsustainable, especially if we hit another recession anytime soon.
And look out: the real estate market is cooling off, new job creation is slowing dramatically (and lots of people have dropped out of the workforce altogether) and auto sales are starting to dry up, all with the backdrop of a market that is near its peak. Does this combination of events sound familiar?
You let me know when you read that the SEC is on it like you predicted, RickyBoy.
But no problem, gives me even more fodder to make of you for when it doesn't happen. It's funny that your predictive abilities are so bad that it nearly always pays to just do the opposite of what you say. You're a bit younger than him, but at this rate you are definitely on track to be the next txtittyfan.
And what does market timing an individual security have to do with determining when a recession will start? We were in the last recession for months before we even knew that it is WAS a recession and the market was well behind the slowdown in predictive pricing. Indeed, the market's move to its lows in '08 were reactive, not predictive.
Bankruptcy dude. This company just needs too many things to go right now. Trying to predict exactly when is a pointless exercise, but whether it is next year of in 4, all of this company's bad decisions are going to catch up.
And now they are getting ready to close two more clubs. That's certainly not going to help their cash flow number. It also means that the CEO might have mislead investors about the previous performance of those clubs. What a shocker. After all, only someone as gullibel as Dougster could be sold on the theory that year over year sales of existing clubs are growing when you have small gross revenue growth even while adding several units. :)
Oh yeah, all those goofy CFAs doing silly things like analyzing financial performance are real morons. ;)
Whether it is next year or a few years from now, sooner or later this company is not going to be able to finance or purchase its way out of insolvency.
There appears to be good support now in the low $9's which is about $0.50 higher than I expected.
In terms of the lawsuit, I think costs get passed along to customers and the loss was already more baked into the price than some may have thought.
In terms of the debt, I don't think that had much to with the short term drop in price. Also minor things like energy drinks are just minor.
I actually started feeling good about this stock once Rick spoke up after $2.50 drop which was exactly when is started to stabilize. I wanted to wait for oil to stabilize and see what the Fed had to say yesterday regarding rates, before I suggested covering shorts which I now am. I think it's safe to go long in this name once again. The lows this week are probably where the buybacks are which should be the new floor and limit downside risk, while make shorts the risky bet now.
Unfortunately I went out and bought 1000 each of XOM and GILD yesterday, and will be getting into some interest rate plays when the markets open today. So not much money left for other small caps. I'll see what the margin requirements are on RICK and may
pick up a couple of thousand shares of it as well - just for fun!
Earnings on Monday were good once again, and probably why the buyers came back later in the day.
Would you agree with analysis Rick?
On September 12, 2013, I said this: "I suspect that anyone who bought in at $10 or higher is going to be sorry that he did." This was while you were blowing Langran while predicting that this stock would take off to $15 and even far beyond. ;)
Well, my opinion remains the same and it is indeed trading back under $10 again, even while the market and the overall economy are pushing new highs. Ruff ruff baby! This company is a dog that I predict is going to go bankrupt long before the share price ever sees anywhere close to its historical highs.
Btw, have you had a peek at their short-term liabilities, even taking out the patron tax liability (which btw they are now starting to admit that they might actually owe), against current assets and last year's overall cash flows? They are obviously going to need more financing and soon. i suspect that Langan will be the one giving BJs in order to make that happen at anything approaching a reasonable rate, unless you are willing to do the honors on his behalf. :)
Sucker, er, buyer beware!