K all you older and wiser tuscler members I'm looking for good ideas to invest my money in that will help me bet inflasion and make me big bucks ovet the long haul......I'm already doing land, gold, copper, silver, old coins, stamps, sports cards, stocks, CDs, bonds and 401 k.....ooo yea and life insurance......any thang else that you boys can thank off ?
I'll let you in on a great opportunity. A Nigerian prince needs my help to get $100 million out of his country, and will give me half. I only need to send him $50 K. So send me $25 K and I'll give you $25 M after I receive my $50 M from the prince.
juice, you won't live another 50 years if you continue to eat all that fried fast food dreck that you claim to eat. Go to a doc once in a while for a physical. Quit the weed and other drugs if you really do that shit like you claim to do. That crap messes your brain, making you incapable of making rational investment decisions.
But, assuming that you might be a little bit serious, here is some advice from me - worth exactly what you are paying for it.
Gold, stamps, sports cards? Why? These things depend on always finding a 'greater fool' to buy them from you at a greater price than you paid. None of them have any intrinsic value.
Old coins? Again the 'greater fool' caveat with the single difference that coins maintain their face value.
CDs, bonds? Are you fucking nuts? At today's interest rates you are lucky if interest income after tax keeps up with even today's anemic inflation rates. There has been a 35 year bull market in bonds; that cannot continue. It is a pure mug's game to be buying bonds in this market. There is a zero possibility of capital gains in the bond market looking out 30 or 50 years from today's bond prices.
Copper, silver? These are industrial commodities but demand is so cyclical that they are not investment worthy for a 50 year time frame. Check silver prices in 1980 and calculate your return + inflation erosion if you are holding that same silver now, 30+ years later. If you have an infallible crystal ball you can invest in these commodities. But, I think that a guy who talks about sticking cucumbers in strippers' asses has no crystal ball to foretell the future. Even a mediocre crystal ball would tell you that cucumber move is a loser.
401k? Not an investment, just a tax planning vehicle.
Land? Unless you are talking about developed real estate with a rental income stream raw land is a risky proposition. Location, location, location, my man juice.
Life insurance? Do you have dependents? Do see the prospect of dependents in the future if you have none now? If answers to both questions are NO, then life insurance is of no use to you. It is just like setting fire to a pile of benjamins every month as you piss away all that premium money. I have not one single penny of life insurance.
Stocks? Go for it, juice. Can you read? Can you do simple arithmetic (addition, subtraction, multiplication, division)? Can you think independent of main stream cliches? Those are all the simple tools you need to be a successful stock market investor. The 'thinking' requirement is the most difficult to possess. All of my wealth apart that which is tied up in my oil and nat gas ventures is invested in common shares, trust units, and a very few pref shares. The majority is in Canada, small part is in USA, and I am just now venturing into equity investments in Europe (should have done that 18 months ago).
Mutual funds? These are for lazy dummies and morons. The MERs and all the other fees grind you down. Mutual funds exist to make money for the mutual fund companies and the mutual fund salespeople, An infinitely better investment is the common stock of the companies that peddle this mutual fund shit.
ETFs? A possibility but there are more ETFs than there are individual stocks so a learning curve is necessary. I am not prepared to venture out on that particular learning curve. Many ETFs are hopelessly complicated to understand.
There it is juice, farmerart's boring outpouring about investment instruments.
Unless you are willing to devote major time to it, don't try and beat the s&p. Just buy the SPY ETF and don't look at it or react to the news. Buy, hold, forget.
Now if you want to make it a serious hobby look into IBD at www.investors.com.
Whatever you do don't listen to that fuckhead txtittyfan. He'll tell you stuff like to short treasuries the day before they bottom. You'll lose all you money on margin calls and then he'll deny his words that are all their in black and white saying what he really meant was some collection of words that don' even make sense "sell a short futures position" and have mathematically impossible properties (beat treasuries returns yet remain risk free).
Juice my brother...start a new religion. Hard to make this work but if it does you'll be rolling in it! You've already written Juice 3:16 -- just keep going from there!
I can see Juice on the TV once Pat Robertson retires, "God has told me that a woman is being cured of the cancer...and she is growing better titties...perfect titties...in Jesus' name if you like titties donate as much as you can...$700 if you want to me a member of the 700 club...where cancer-free chicks have great titties!!!"
If you want to make money in the stock market you can take two approaches, fundamental analysis looking at the companies you are investing in and then buying and holding for the long term like Warren Buffet occassionally reviewing the fundamentals to make sure nothing drastic has changed the fundamentals or you can study technical analysis of stocks. I would stay away from highly speculative penny stocks since most of those get hyped up advertisements, rise up to entice you then slowly fade away to nothing often taking your money better than playing around in Vegas but not as much fun.
As far as technical analysis goes, elliottwave predicts price points very well but is not always that great at predicting market direction. In other words if the market goes up, technical analysis can give you good points to buy and sell. However if the market goes down, it didn't help you at all. Rather than buy and hold an SP500 based etf for eternity, you can beat the market by using technical analysis. I proved it to myself already using some stocks and their history. Some major investment companies are strictly against anyone making money this way even putting it in their prospectus that if you plan to time the market, do not buy their fund.
A regular brokerage account though has no problem and will just charge a commission for every trade. A simple strategy would be to look at an etf like upro and look at technical indicators like the bollinger bands and the weekly moving average and fast stochastics. When the weekly starts selling off after hitting the top bollinger band on a weekly basis, you could sell. When it touches the bottom bollinger band you could buy. A stock guru good at predicting the stock market can make it a lot easier too but you need to know a few things before you can follow someone like that.
As far as the best guru using technical analysis to predict the market, this guy is the best I found but he charges and you need to at least have a basic understanding of elliottwave. He does not give or allow trading advice on his web site plus he's starting to charge more than I care to pay. there are some good useful free sites on his site in his favorites blog section. I also like the blog for Carl Futia, not listed in his favorites but down farther below. This guy is still real good with his forecasts.
http://pugsma.wordpress.com/
Investing in some etf's for several months is a bad idea. Some lose value over time the longer you buy and hold. One example is ung, a natural gas etf. The price of natural gas could go up but if you bought and held this etf you would have lost money the past few years. You need to know what you are buying unless you like gambling or losing money.
I looked into Elliot Wave Analysis myself. It's somewhat interesting, but too "discretionary", IMO. It's often possible for many wave patterns to fit a chart, and there is no good systematic way to pick between them.
That "pugsma" does seem to be good for instance, but most Ellioticians are extremely bearish.
If the analysis is so systematic that it can't even tell you whether we are on the verge or a major bull market (I think pugsma has S&P 1900 as a target, while the world's most renowned Ellioticain, Robert Prechter, think the Dow will drop below 400 (yes, four hundred on the Dow) that is no typo), I don't see much value in it.
I think what happens is that with a wide swath of different "wave counts" to choose from, some highly bearish, some highly bullish, one falls back to make discretionary chooses among them, by project out one's own world view onto the markets. (Are you innately pessimistic? You'll probably project that out and choose a bearish count. Are you innately optimistic? You'll probably project that out and choose a bullish count.) Then once you have what you think is a decision made purely on technical analysis with your subjectivity factoring in, you can get locked into the wrong side of the market for a long period. (As seems to have been the case with Prechter most of the time since the mid-90s).
I think the preferably alternatives, are to admit there is some subjectivity to your approach, and acknowledge that means you'll have to recognize your personal biases and when the market might be playing with your emotions. Either that or go with one that is completely rules based ("systematic") and then turn off the news and let the computer do all the work.
Thus, I like IBD better than Elliot waves. They have two approaches. One is completely systematic, and the other allows for subjective decisions. (Their paper uses the later in judgment of current market trend.) A couple of weeks ago the somewhat discretionary and purely systematic approaches differed. Discretionary said we were in a correction, and the systematic approach said "nope uptrend is fine". Turned out the purely systematic approach was right.
(I should also mention that IBD combines technical analysis with fundamental, and only picks stocks which score strongly on both.)
I'm a little perplexed by Motley Fool. I haven't looked at them for about a decade, but didn't they just say "forget trying to beat the S&P" and just put your money into an index fund and forget it? If so why do they bother with fundamental analysis? Or do they know believe the S&P can be beaten?
A mosr interesting thread. I'll have to look this stuff up. Am not a professional mathematician, though...if one needs a flair for numbers to use these investment tools, I might be at a disadvantage. (Anything more than Cartesian graphing of simple equations, forget it.)
As for investing in general: The best thing to invest in is yourself. Learn how to do something profitable that there will always be a demand for. Look after your health. Having $$millions$$ in your account doesn't matter if you're physically too messed up to enjoy it.
If you have long green to invest & really don't give a damn, check out arms manufacturers, see what their earnings are like. There's always a war going on somewhere.
Invest in Green Gold, Humboldt 401k. When the shit hits the fan, all the gold n silver is worthless. Guns, ammo, & edibles are what matter. Land & location matter. I have a green thumb & a wrenching gene so I'm set. Too bad I'm short or I'd be a catch, not just a Catch 22. Seriously, talk to a Jew. No hate, just truth. Shalom.
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Lol....thanks
But, assuming that you might be a little bit serious, here is some advice from me - worth exactly what you are paying for it.
Gold, stamps, sports cards? Why? These things depend on always finding a 'greater fool' to buy them from you at a greater price than you paid. None of them have any intrinsic value.
Old coins? Again the 'greater fool' caveat with the single difference that coins maintain their face value.
CDs, bonds? Are you fucking nuts? At today's interest rates you are lucky if interest income after tax keeps up with even today's anemic inflation rates. There has been a 35 year bull market in bonds; that cannot continue. It is a pure mug's game to be buying bonds in this market. There is a zero possibility of capital gains in the bond market looking out 30 or 50 years from today's bond prices.
Copper, silver? These are industrial commodities but demand is so cyclical that they are not investment worthy for a 50 year time frame. Check silver prices in 1980 and calculate your return + inflation erosion if you are holding that same silver now, 30+ years later. If you have an infallible crystal ball you can invest in these commodities. But, I think that a guy who talks about sticking cucumbers in strippers' asses has no crystal ball to foretell the future. Even a mediocre crystal ball would tell you that cucumber move is a loser.
401k? Not an investment, just a tax planning vehicle.
Land? Unless you are talking about developed real estate with a rental income stream raw land is a risky proposition. Location, location, location, my man juice.
Life insurance? Do you have dependents? Do see the prospect of dependents in the future if you have none now? If answers to both questions are NO, then life insurance is of no use to you. It is just like setting fire to a pile of benjamins every month as you piss away all that premium money. I have not one single penny of life insurance.
Stocks? Go for it, juice. Can you read? Can you do simple arithmetic (addition, subtraction, multiplication, division)? Can you think independent of main stream cliches? Those are all the simple tools you need to be a successful stock market investor. The 'thinking' requirement is the most difficult to possess. All of my wealth apart that which is tied up in my oil and nat gas ventures is invested in common shares, trust units, and a very few pref shares. The majority is in Canada, small part is in USA, and I am just now venturing into equity investments in Europe (should have done that 18 months ago).
Mutual funds? These are for lazy dummies and morons. The MERs and all the other fees grind you down. Mutual funds exist to make money for the mutual fund companies and the mutual fund salespeople, An infinitely better investment is the common stock of the companies that peddle this mutual fund shit.
ETFs? A possibility but there are more ETFs than there are individual stocks so a learning curve is necessary. I am not prepared to venture out on that particular learning curve. Many ETFs are hopelessly complicated to understand.
There it is juice, farmerart's boring outpouring about investment instruments.
As I said earlier in this rant:
Worth exactly what you paid for it.
Now if you want to make it a serious hobby look into IBD at www.investors.com.
Whatever you do don't listen to that fuckhead txtittyfan. He'll tell you stuff like to short treasuries the day before they bottom. You'll lose all you money on margin calls and then he'll deny his words that are all their in black and white saying what he really meant was some collection of words that don' even make sense "sell a short futures position" and have mathematically impossible properties (beat treasuries returns yet remain risk free).
I can see Juice on the TV once Pat Robertson retires, "God has told me that a woman is being cured of the cancer...and she is growing better titties...perfect titties...in Jesus' name if you like titties donate as much as you can...$700 if you want to me a member of the 700 club...where cancer-free chicks have great titties!!!"
It could work....
As far as technical analysis goes, elliottwave predicts price points very well but is not always that great at predicting market direction. In other words if the market goes up, technical analysis can give you good points to buy and sell. However if the market goes down, it didn't help you at all. Rather than buy and hold an SP500 based etf for eternity, you can beat the market by using technical analysis. I proved it to myself already using some stocks and their history. Some major investment companies are strictly against anyone making money this way even putting it in their prospectus that if you plan to time the market, do not buy their fund.
A regular brokerage account though has no problem and will just charge a commission for every trade. A simple strategy would be to look at an etf like upro and look at technical indicators like the bollinger bands and the weekly moving average and fast stochastics. When the weekly starts selling off after hitting the top bollinger band on a weekly basis, you could sell. When it touches the bottom bollinger band you could buy. A stock guru good at predicting the stock market can make it a lot easier too but you need to know a few things before you can follow someone like that.
http://www.fool.com/
http://pugsma.wordpress.com/
That "pugsma" does seem to be good for instance, but most Ellioticians are extremely bearish.
If the analysis is so systematic that it can't even tell you whether we are on the verge or a major bull market (I think pugsma has S&P 1900 as a target, while the world's most renowned Ellioticain, Robert Prechter, think the Dow will drop below 400 (yes, four hundred on the Dow) that is no typo), I don't see much value in it.
I think what happens is that with a wide swath of different "wave counts" to choose from, some highly bearish, some highly bullish, one falls back to make discretionary chooses among them, by project out one's own world view onto the markets. (Are you innately pessimistic? You'll probably project that out and choose a bearish count. Are you innately optimistic? You'll probably project that out and choose a bullish count.) Then once you have what you think is a decision made purely on technical analysis with your subjectivity factoring in, you can get locked into the wrong side of the market for a long period. (As seems to have been the case with Prechter most of the time since the mid-90s).
I think the preferably alternatives, are to admit there is some subjectivity to your approach, and acknowledge that means you'll have to recognize your personal biases and when the market might be playing with your emotions. Either that or go with one that is completely rules based ("systematic") and then turn off the news and let the computer do all the work.
Thus, I like IBD better than Elliot waves. They have two approaches. One is completely systematic, and the other allows for subjective decisions. (Their paper uses the later in judgment of current market trend.) A couple of weeks ago the somewhat discretionary and purely systematic approaches differed. Discretionary said we were in a correction, and the systematic approach said "nope uptrend is fine". Turned out the purely systematic approach was right.
(I should also mention that IBD combines technical analysis with fundamental, and only picks stocks which score strongly on both.)
As for investing in general: The best thing to invest in is yourself. Learn how to do something profitable that there will always be a demand for. Look after your health. Having $$millions$$ in your account doesn't matter if you're physically too messed up to enjoy it.
If you have long green to invest & really don't give a damn, check out arms manufacturers, see what their earnings are like. There's always a war going on somewhere.