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4 years ago
^^ It's impossible to argue with a narcissist.
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4 years ago
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gammanu95My casual drinking is your alcohol poisoning.
You could clear cookies.
In fairness, hopkins is switching to a model suggested by the WHO. That will reduce the positivity rate somewhat
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4 years ago
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gammanu95My casual drinking is your alcohol poisoning.
Dugan there's no paywall. Just look for a button that says "read more."
You've been wrong, consistently, every step of the way.
discussion comment
4 years ago
Dugan, no paywall and it's from the Sun Sentinel in your state. Look carefully for a button that says "read more." It's a good article.
My numbers on China are from the Economist.
I'm pecking this out on my phone, but I'm hoping for some compromise that doesn't involve draconian lockdowns.
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4 years ago
Lol, what a strange place this is. Is your wife home, @SkiBirther? Maybe she can change your diaper.
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4 years ago
"In the incredibly unlikely event that Biden should be elected..."
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No, Trump has about a 10% chance of winning according to all major simulations. Better be prepared. The rest of your post is nutty paranoia.
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4 years ago
*inevidable
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4 years ago
Does anyone know what @Gamma is talking about with regard to China and New Zealand?
China 175 new cases and 0 deaths past week
New Zealand 38 cases and 0 deaths
US 420,000 new cases and 5304 deaths past week
Having all but defeated the virus, China is roaring back with something like 4.9% GDP
And I'll post this again about the fudging of Florida Covid positivity rates:
"Florida puts a positive spin on COVID-19 data, misleading the public on pandemic"
https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-coronavirus-positivity-rate-florida-explainer-20201014-tfho3kvw7jaabmlv2d7gwndgii-story.html
We've handled the pandemic miserably and some kind of lockdowns may be inevidible.
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4 years ago
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gammanu95My casual drinking is your alcohol poisoning.
Lol, story about how Florida has been putting a positive spin on the calculated positivity rates. One of the Florida covid data scientists was fired in May for insubordination, claiming the state had encouraged her to fudge statistics. The article goes into the way FL, Johns Hopkins, and the WHO calculate the positivity rate. If read the article, FL's method is obvious horseshit.
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"Florida puts a positive spin on COVID-19 data, misleading the public on pandemic"
https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-coronavirus-positivity-rate-florida-explainer-20201014-tfho3kvw7jaabmlv2d7gwndgii-story.html
"The result: As coronavirus cases again threaten to rise in Florida, with schools and businesses fully open, it is becoming increasingly difficult to answer a simple question: What percentage of people tested positive for COVID-19 on any given day — and are we justified in going about our business without worry? Or did Gov. Ron DeSantis put people at risk when he allowed businesses to return to normal?
“Doing what we’re doing now, I think positivity numbers are just about useless, because it’s completely opaque who is getting tested and why,” said Thomas Hladish, a scientist at the University of Florida’s Emerging Pathogens Institute who has done pandemic modeling for the Florida Department of Health.
“It absolutely does lull people into a false sense of security,” said Rebekah Jones, a former Florida coronavirus data scientist who was fired in early May for alleged insubordination, after claiming the state had encouraged her to fudge statistics. Jones now publishes her own coronavirus statistics."
discussion comment
4 years ago
@GammaNu-
There's always the thread about buttplugs if this isn't of interest.
You have the honor of having nearly the only thread deleted by Founder: when you started a thread stating that the death of Nina's relatives was a silver lining of the pandemic.
And I did see the thread recently where you complained that four of us were ruining your experience on the board. Another thread deleted by Founder.
And all the other threads where you race-baiting other members.
If you have me on ignore, then stop being obsessed with my posts.
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4 years ago
" I'd have kept the money, invested it and had enough to be able to buy private insurance until I died."
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Absolute bullshit. The elderly would not be able to buy insurance at any cost. Under the pre-ACA system 50 million people could not buy insurance at any cost and thats for the under 65 crowd. You should thank your aging ass for Medicare.
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4 years ago
"My Mother is on Medicare, which she earned over 50 years of work "
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I didn't say she didn't earn her Medicare coverage, now did I? It's a system that protects the elderly from financial ruin from catastrophic medical costs and dying in poverty. Do you think the elderly would be able to find private insurance, at an affordable cost, without government intervention? Medicare will protect your aging ass and that of your wife as you both drift into your dotage, which is coming pretty soon.
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4 years ago
@SkiBirther-
Of course I'm sorry about your mother and sibling. But I'd like to point out that I'm the first one in this thread to say that you may be making decisions for other vulnerable people in your life. You, know, the post where you called me "a pompous, useless, asshole" out of nowhere. This illustrates the choice you make when you attend a super-spreader event like the one described by the OP.
Since you were ranting about government healthcare in another thread, it would be interesting to know if your mother and sibling are supported by Medicaire. Or maybe you're a billionaire paying their entire medical costs.
What a nutcase.
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4 years ago
I'm sure there are many options. You can post video or pics to Google Drive and get an anonymous public link. If you're the nervous type, open a Google account with a throwaway username.
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4 years ago
Since you're getting to that age, @SkiBirther, do you ever intend to go on Medicaire?
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4 years ago
@SkiBirther wrote: "...no one will be going anywhere in a few months when we get a national lockdown."
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I doubt that we'll go back to the kind of lockdown that we had in March. That's a strawman being used to support fringe science like the Barrington Declaration.
Going into a crowded indoor club where nobody is wearing masks is a good way to get infected. The OP's not past the incubation period and, while it's unlikely, he may be an asymptomatic carrier.
It's easy enough to go online, using your age general health condition, to get some idea of the risk you're taking of outright dying from Covid. Then you might want to consider that the long-term risk to your heart and lungs is not well understood. It's your skin -- so do a risk-vs-reward calculation. Ask you doctor.
After that, if your not single, consider the risk you might be taking of spreading the disease to your wife and family at home. Do you visit your grandparents or do they live you at home? Are you making a decision that affects other people in your life?
I'm married and wouldn't think of going into crowded club like that, but I might have a different attitude if I were single.
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4 years ago
This came out today, an article by physician Tom Frieden who was the director of the CDC from 2009 to 2017. He uses a less optimistic assumption of 0.5% infection fatality rate and herd-immunity threshold of 60% (as I did) to come up with what he calls a best-case scenario of an *additional* half-million deaths with the herd-immunity approach.
The herd-immunity of 10%-20% assumed by Sunetra Guptra and the Barrington Declaration is on the fringes of the scientific community. Vast majority of epidemiologists have converged on a value of about 60%
"A half-million more people could die if America pursues a ‘herd immunity’ plan"
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/tom-frieden-herd-immunity-wrong-solution-coronavirus/2020/10/16/acb4ae8a-0fe6-11eb-8074-0e943a91bf08_story.html
"Less than 15 percent of Americans have been infected by the virus that causes covid-19. If immunity among those who have been infected and survived is strong and long-lasting (and it may well be neither), and if herd immunity kicks in at 60 percent infection of the population (and it might be higher), with a fatality rate of 0.5 percent among those infected, then at least another half-million Americans — in addition to the 220,000 who have already died — would have to die for the country to achieve herd immunity. And that’s the best-case scenario. The number of deaths to get there could be twice as high.
The route to herd immunity would run through graveyards filled with Americans who did not have to die, because what starts in young adults doesn’t stay in young adults. “Protecting the vulnerable,” however appealing it may sound, isn’t plausible if the virus is allowed to freely spread among younger people."
discussion comment
4 years ago
...I wonder what life is like for Kellyanne and George Conway. Must be bizarre.
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4 years ago
We discuss every topic at least 10 times and this one is no exception. The butt-plug thread is at number 9.
To first-order, agree with @Warrior that political orientation doesn't matter for something like one-night OTC and matters enormously for a spouse. A long-term SB is somewhere in between and it does matter, at least a little. For example, I'm not going to have anything to do with someone involved with QAnon and conspiracy theories.
Young people in their 20s rarely have well-defined political views. They're usually too busy in school or carving out a career to care, read, or understand the significance. That comes later in life. For sugaring, I've found that SB political views are half-formed (at best) and reflect the views of their parents. Good parenting makes for thoughtful kids.
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4 years ago
Economist simulation (with help from the MIT media lab) predicts Trump has a 9% of winning as of today:
https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president
Absent any cheating, you can expect Trump to lose.
As far as the personalities here, @SkiBirther has always been a clownish figure, like your goofy and quirky uncle Fred at Thanksgiving. He's lost his sense of humor, presumably from prostate problems and all the other diseases that afflict geriatric men.
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4 years ago
@Orange: "I just called them and they said it won't show as Accepted until after election day"
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What @Orange is going through is outrageous. My ballot signature initially failed an automated scan -- but a human judge ruled it valid yesterday. Both of our ballots have been marked "accepted."
Colorado has steel drop-boxes all over the place and our ballot-tracking website is manned with chats that are very responsive, with no waiting. We have some of the best ballot-processing in the nation.
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4 years ago
@Papi: "If Trump wins I expect the Left to go batshit crazy."
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SIince 90% of Republicans expect Trump to win and Trump has a 10% chance of winning, the right is far more likey to go batshit crazy. And violence seems likely to me.
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4 years ago
Crazyjoe, it was a joke and you should take it as seriously as the original OP.
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4 years ago
"If a girl dyes her hair blonde, does that count as banging a blonde?"
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No, and should ask her for an ancestry DNA test before bragging to your Aryan Nation bros.
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4 years ago
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IceyI put your ATF on a winning team
Of course I have a link, dipshit:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/florida/