TJ after Trump takes office?

I am definitely worried about a tit-for-tat slide in US-Mex relations, that could affect crossing the border in both directions. Long lines, more searches, maybe even Mexico imposing visa fees at some point. And of course there's the doomsday scenario of Trump actually following through on "SEALING THE SOUTHERN BORDER" or mass deportations, or bombing cartels, which would all make Tijuana a nightmare.

But I think you'd be fine the weekend of Jan 27, that's only like a week after the changing of the guard. I would wager the only thing different that weekend would be there will a different pair of portraits hanging at the border crossing.

To be on the safe side, you could always fly into TJ.

You all realize Trump was in office for four years already right? Was it hard to enter TJ from 2016 - 2020? TJ and the rest of Mexico make a lot of money off of U.S. Tourist, they aren't going to stop that gravy train. It may become a little harder, the $40 or whatever is is entry fee may return, but I don't see any other changes.

Guess some people want any excuse to whine about Trump.

@rugrat: Yeah, I think there’s a good chance if the $33 FMM fee eventually returns, but otherwise I don’t see things changing much if at all - at least in the short term.

I believe the concern isn't about Trump specifically but the notice he has put on Mexico regarding imposing heavy tariffs that they don't have now requiring the Mexican President to take action to address his issues and how will Mexico react. I think the OPs concern is if the Mexican people will be upset at the Americans crossing because of that which can hurt their economy.

I am not sure Trump will move with the tariffs literally after being sworn in so I think to answer the OPs question, maybe it won't be a difference when he is there if at all even after. It is something to monitor though.

The only flight I can find from any US airport to TJ. American Eagle.

PHX
11:04 AM
TIJ
11:34 AM
1h 30m
NonstopOpens Nonstop details for PHX to TIJ, departing at 11:04 AM
AA 6449 CR7-Canadair RJ 700
Operated by SkyWest Airlines as American Eagle

Onboard amenities
Detailsfor PHX to TIJ, departing at 11:04 AM NonstopSeatsfor PHX to TIJ, departing at 11:04 AM Nonstop

Main
Round trip from
$409

Trump supposedly floated the idea of drone strikes against Mexican cartels. But he decided against it. And Trump does seem to bluff a lot as a negotiating tactic. If he reconsiders actually doing it, Marco Rubio, I'm fairly sure would strongly advise against, maybe even threaten to quit over it. But, over time, Trump has become less and less hesitant to write fellow Republicans off a RINOs when they disagree with him. If Trump did start military operations against the cartels, seem likely the cartels would start taking Americans as hostages to use as bargaining chips. Hopefully, US citizens would get ample warning to avoid being in Mexico. But Trump has a history not caring about or thinking through consequences to individuals ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_… ).

Many Mexicans have to cross the border regularly for work/business purposes. If heighten border security interfered with that, there might be violent protests at the crossings, that would make it unsafe for returning Americans.

@ilbbaicnl - why would there be protests? Are you saying the Mexican people support the cartel versus the dealing with heightened security? You may be right but all the Mexican nationals I have talked to wish the cartel were not around but there was no way to stop them. Who knows I guess, but to answer the original poster, I didn't think so this could happen during his trip.

I was planning on going back early March, I will have to monitor this a bit.

^ @ill Illinois lib has a very sore butthole about Trump, today.
Get ready for 4 years of this shit.

@justin I said they might protest not being able to cross to their jobs or business appointments in Metro San Diego. Assuming people in BC Norte are as protest-prone as in Central Mexico.

If Mexico deployed drones against US organized crime groups that smuggle guns into their country, a lot of Americans would see that as a violation of US sovereignty. Such feelings cut both ways.

I love the direct flight from PHX to TJ, much prefer it over flying into San Diego, flown it several times.
If I go down this time I’d be mixing it in with a business trip which means I’d fly into San Diego….not sure how I’d explain a TJ flight on the expense report. :)
I never had crossed the border during Trumps first term. Was anyone here a regular visitor back then?

Trump's first term was a net positive for Mexico. NAFTA was basically just renamed so Trump could claim he kept his promise to get rid of it. Trump ended the complete sellout to companies profiting from slave labor in China. Which made Mexico a more competitive place to manufacture.

Trumpy is more insane and dangerous this time around and has Mexico as a enemy , im hearing more policia shakedowns than usual in tijuana

Presumably the police are not getting payoffs from the owners of Adelita while it's closed. That seems like a more likely explanation for any increase in shakedowns.

When the US engineered the kidnapping of two Mexican drug lords last summer, that triggered a lot of violence between criminal factions. It's not like, pre-Trump, people in Mexico have been feeling the love from the US government. Hard to say how far Trump would have to go, before people in Mexico would feel extra dehumanized.

Crossed during the Turnip administration. Crossed during Covid. Even if the border is “closed,” American citizens cannot be denied return entry into the United States.

@ibbaicnl - what do you mean about the people in Mexico would feel extra dehumanized? Again, my sample size is limited but throughout the years in discussion with Mexican nationals both in Mexico and in large conferences they traveled to here in the US, the idea of building the wall, etc to all that I spoke to wasn't a big deal to them. Whether it was a fence, wall or extra border security, that was the US doing their thing. I guess my point, it isn't dehumanizing to those I spoke to. They too seemed to wish the cartel be dealt with to have a fresh start in MX. So I guess I'm not understanding. The more I could, the better I could analyze risk for future trips.

I do agree with PT, in an early comment any "sealing the border" was being misapplied to US citizens.

@justin I don't have a big sample size either. I haven't heard talk about being dehumanized. They see government (ours and theirs) as a scaled up version of the cops who shake them down. A revolution doesn't interest them, they been there done that. But, if you take away someone's livelihood overnight, you gotta expect they're likely to get violent. Mexican or whatever. If any, the US President you are most likely to hear them criticize is Bush Jr. They don't want to be the next Iraq, so they take a hard pass on forceful US intervention. If you ask a Mexican directly what should be done about the cartels, I think you'll get the short answer that the US needs to eliminate the demand, from within its own borders.

For those who thing it will be the same as the last Trump administration, I suppose you could be right, but I am skeptical. There are two reasons to be skeptical.

The first is related to his appointees. In 2016, Trump nominated a slew of veteran GOP administrators to his cabinet who tempered his worst instincts. As I understand it, people like Mark Milley, Kirsten Nielsen and John Bolton were paramount in persuading Trump using the military against civilians in the US. It appears that Trump he gets his nominees through the Senate, in 2024, he will have a much more extreme cabinet, who might indulge, rather than suppress his worst instincts.

The other reason I am skeptical is because in 2016, Trump didn't run on a platform at all. The 2016 GOP platform was something really basic like "Implement the president's 'America first' agenda."

In 2024, he did have a platform. And literally the first two elements of that platform are (quoting directly from GOP.com):

1. SEAL THE BORDER, AND STOP THE MIGRANT INVASION
2. CARRY OUT THE LARGEST DEPORTATION OPERATION IN AMERICAN HISTORY

If Trump takes any meaningful steps towards these platform elements, there is for sure going to be problems at the largest border crossing in the world on our border with Mexico. (The other policy worth mentioning is his campaign trail promise to put Mexican cartels on the US list of terrorist organizations, which would give him the power to bomb Culiacán or Tijuana, and would create a diplomatic nightmare with Mexico.)

I think to consequences of these policies could range from potentially very severe - like you literally can no longer go to Tijuana - to wholly inconvenient. I'm reminded of the saga of DEA Agent Kiki Cameron in the 80s, popularized by the Netflix series Narcos: Mexico. His death at the hands cartels sent US-Mex relationships plummeting. One of the things the US did in retaliation was to start searching more than half of all cars crossing at San Ysdrio, causing backups of like 12 hours on the highways leading in to San Diego.

That kind of shit, on both sides of the border, could be a regular occurrence based on what Trump does with his second term. Maybe you can still cross at PedEast, but instead of a 15 minute wait to cross there or back, it's a 5 hour wait, in which everyone is taking off their shoes and belt and paying a Visa.

It's also worth considering that Trump is a cult-of-personality. His supporters project their own hopes and dreams on him regardless of the facts, his record, or what he says. That Blue collar Trump in the factory deprived town in Western PA legitimately thinks Trump will shut down international trade with tariffs, stop immigration altogether, and magically, the town factory will reopen (and without the blistering inflation these policies will invite.)

On the flip side, the captains of industry who support Trump recognize the devastating economic effects these policies would have, and they believe Trump is all bark and no bite when it comes to tariffs, deportations and border controls.

These two types of Trump supporters can't both be right. We'll have to wait and see what he does at this point I think. I'm not tremendously hopeful about the implications for Tijuana enjoyers, but who knows, maybe my concerns are overblown. One thing I am certainly not doing is trusting in what Trump supporters think is going to happen. Because they worship Trump like a cult leader, they seem to have the least information on what Trump has actually done, and what he's promised to do. And the fact is, the promises he's made, if implemented, would be devastating for anyone wanting to visit Mexico.

The bottom line is: get to TJ while you still can!

Having safe neighborhoods, a secure southern border, and a better (than currently) managed immigration system is more important to me than the Tijuana sex trade. Your priorities may vary.

Having said that, the situation in Mexico is very different than it was in 2020. They also have an entirely new government and their security situation has also changed. I would think that a smart monger would wait and see before travelling to Mexico for sex tourism.

Every stat you can find says that crime is lower in the last 4 years than it was in the previous 4 before that.
And share as having no platform in the first term remember the wall and who was paying for it? Also Obamacare would be replaced day one.
Should I remind you what the idiot did and didn’t do?

Most likely, Trump will just stop or drastically reduce admission of asylum seekers. I'd assume most of the Mexicans crossing into the US from TJ on foot have multiple entry visas. Those visas are hard to get, you have to go to the US Embassy or a consulate, and show property deeds and/or bank statements. I've never heard any claims that significant numbers of Mexicans with those visas use them to work/stay in the US illegally. I've never heard of any Republican saying they want to cancel those visas. Maybe the agents who normally handle asylum seekers would be freed up, so the lines for everyone else will move faster, if anything.

My ATF applied for a Visa during Trump's first term. As you point out @ilb, they are difficult to get. Multiple trips to the embassy, bank statements, tax forms, and all kinds of documentation to prove you're not at risk of overstaying. And the cost is high too, like $200 which is not a trivial amount to an average Mexican.

In her case, she forked that over, had multiple appointments, and then just got denied. No explanation. I think you're right, the GOP isn't proposing changing this visa system, but the executives in charge of it starting in January could definitely crack down again, as they did last time. It will certainly be aggravating for Mexican tourists wanting to come the US, the real question is, how would Mexico retaliate?

It's probably worth noting that most undocumented immigrants who are crossing our southern border aren't Mexican nationals. More commonly they're Venezuelan, Nicaraguan, Honduran, or El Salvadorian. One nightmare scenario that's quite conceivable is that Trump doubles down on Biden's misguided "remain in Mexico" policy for asylum seekers from these countries.

That would make Tijuana a mess, as the city does not have the infrastructure to house huge numbers of immigrants waiting to have their asylum claims processed. I think in general the Mexican government is wholly unprepared to handle the immigration backups that will happen once Trump is back.

@gammanu hit the nail on the head with this.

"Having safe neighborhoods, a secure southern border, and a better (than currently) managed immigration system is more important to me than the Tijuana sex trade. Your priorities may vary."

^ I mean, I get it. You guys don't give a fuck whose lives get interrupted or ruined.

The thing is, neither tariffs nor deportations will not make your neighborhoods one iota safer. They're just going to cause a human rights catastrophe and massive inflation.

I would further note: you're saying this on a forum for Tijuana mongers, where all of us will feel the brunt of Trump's brutish actions, and where people have a legitimate cause for concern. I don't think people here will find your callousness compelling. Might I kindly suggest you fuck of back to Political Discussions, neither one of you guys has shit to offer on Tijuana, that's for sure.

^ This whole thread is politics, incel dumbass. You might have to find an American stripper, or, God forbid, go on a DATE.

Its going to depend on what measures trump takes against Mexico and Mexicans in the US. A fluid border benefits everyone

Definitely got more political thank I intended.

No disrespect to the TJ guys, I'd love to go there but I don't see it happening but bottom line this 'woe is me, i might not be able to get laid on the cheap' BS is comical. There's beautiful women all over that want to hook up, even for free, get some game!

In my experience with hundreds of visits to Tijuana it was absolutely no problem with going to Tijuana duringTrump's first four years.
I don't think any problem will arise from his second four years either.

and like puta tester said about crossing during COVID... no issues either.

the biggest problem about going to Tijuana IS the bandits with badges.

Mexico has a long history of very poor rural people migrating to the cities, which is at a bigger scale than non-Mexican migrants. Migrants aren't allowed to make much use of the infrastructure, so they don't strain it. It's not like the total number of migrants is doubling or anything, despite what Fox News would have you believe. I've heard Mexicans complain about it's getting harder to find maids and jornaleros. So, they might not see it as all bad, if the refugees get stuck in Mexico.

The general question is whether, this time around, Trump is going to walk the batshit walk, as well as talk the batshit talk. If yes, it's not like anyone will be sitting pretty by not being in TJ. You might just be glad you got some last arribas in before the Trumpocalypse.

I am planning to go back in February for Super Bowl weekend, so we’ll see what happens then. For me, it’s a wait and see approach. Would I anticipate paying the FMM fee for entry into Mexico (which is something I have yet to do BTW)? Probably. But honestly I don’t see anything changing right away.

“ The general question is whether, this time around, Trump is going to walk the batshit walk, as well as talk the batshit talk”

Yes, this is the country crushing real question. Last time he did virtually nothing, this time he has a clown cabinet so I guess we’ll see.