Are you confident enough in the election results to bet on it?

I’d bet on 2 ants running down my driveway so yeah

Barely confident at all. Dems will try to cheat just like last time. Hell, they're already cheating by installing Kacklala over the voters' choice of Old Joe. Republicans a threat to democracy? Yeah, my ass. Dems don't do anything by the rules, ever. Betting on this election is really just betting whether Dems will successfully undermine it.

I'm not a gambler, I'm an investor and a Republican, but I'd play it through puts on DJT stock. I think its true value is zero whether Trump wins or loses (I don't know anyone who uses Truth Social, do you?)

Predictions on the outcome of the Presidential election and control of Congress are inherently speculative. The odds would have to be heavily skewed one way or the other to make a bet attractive, and they won’t be.

I am not a gambler either, and misterorange is also correct that one side is working overtime to rig the game. Betting on the election results is actually a side bet on whether it can be stolen by the democrat party.

voting? wouldn't that mean that one still has faith in the system? you would have to be out of your fucking mind if you think voting is going to make a drastic change.

migrants technically at this point in time are prohibited to vote. but somehow and somewhere along the way the voting ratio could be migrant 1.5-2 to your 1 in a couple of months. i've seen the migrants interviewed on ytube. overwhelming 100% for the cackler. and there's probably a subgroup of them that jerks off to her before going to sleep.

Let’s see, bets I’ve made so far today:

Max Fried - U 18.5 outs

Yoshinobu Yamamoto - U 1.5 bb

Nats vs Mets - NRFI - yes

You have to be a degenerate to bet on any of these so sure I’ll bet on the election. Can’t wait to see what the odds are.

oh yeah - betting. i gamble everyday. horses, football, baseball, etc. if i'm focused and razor sharp i can sometimes play smart and win. but for this situation the smart play is not to bet-you don't have to bet on every race or game.

ahh yamamoto. he'll allow more hr's tonight than bb's. using this as a base i'm going to try and guess who on atl is going to hit those hr's and put them into a fanduel lineup. tx sha for the inspiration.

I'd go with whatever Taylor Swift says.

I’ll go with whatever Shadowcat says
😁

So basically the resident neonazis think Harris will win.

@Icee
Every one isn’t a neo nazi some folks actually have a reason to vote for Trump, you are the same as those you’re denigrating, just because you don’t agree doesn’t mean they’re evil, you are just as un American as the folks you’re attacking
It’s long past your 15 minutes of fame, your just not as important as you think you are.

Trump will definitely win....that is until the boxes of envelopes (which I'm sure is legit as all fuck) start coming in. Then Kamala in a landslide.

'Dems don't do anything by the rules, ever. '

Huh? You mean presenting bunches of unaccountable mail in votes and allowing voters without an ID to vote isn't within the rules?
Say it aint so.

hell no

I too am a degenerate gambler. I do not require high confidence in something to place a modest wager on it. But, I do have to find it somewhat interesting. That's where the election results loose me. When I bet on the Dolphins, I enjoy watching the came. If I were to bet on the election, I would not enjoy watching the results come in. So, no, not betting on elections.

If I could sit outside the voting places and point at individuals as they came out, and bet on who they'd say they voted for, I'd do that all day. As long as there was drinks and snacks too.

Whats the reason election gambling was illegal up till now? Thats strange in itself.

@rickmactodong Apparently the government felt that placing a wager on the election could have influenced it.

I have been considering betting on the candidate I do not want to win as a hedge.

That way, if the candidate I do not want to win is elected at least I’ll win a grand to make me feel a little less bad on Election Day.

25 is not the same as all those he denigrates. Most of the patriots he attacks, like myself, want the best for our country and not always to our own personal gain. 25 only cares about himself and the little fantasy world he has spun for himself on TUSCL. The reality, the sad, pathetic reality, is that he a broken feeble old man who has ran off his whole family and wasted his life fucking over everyone around him. That is why he such a bitter, hateful, asshole. He has no room for gratitude and joy in his life. Don't waste time debating him, he is a deluded narcissist too deep in his own denial to ever come close to seeing reality for what it is.

@StripClubXpert - I did that $1,000 bet with a friend in 2016 (well, I wanted Trump to win but didn't think he had a chance). But on the memo line of the check I wrote "for admitting you have a small dick." Thank God for little victories.

>Dems will try to cheat just like last time.

How did Dems cheat last time ?

@wld4 - hmmm, let's see. Deep blue district where I live was neck & neck with 85% of votes counted. Suddenly they suspended counting and sent everyone home. Next day they came back to work to count the last 15% and suddenly Biden wins by a wide margin.

Any evidence of actual cheating there ? Or even that someone filed a complaint or report about it ?

Just a coincidence, I'm sure.

@Puddy Tat So how did you feel when your candidate won & you were out the grand? Was it worth it for you? Small dicks aside, lol.

^ I have a graphic of the check on both sides. I see it this way, I bought his soul for $1,000. I have certainly made use of my "purchase."

Once campaigning begins under the laws in place, any change whatsoever is cheating. That applies to every election, but only seems to have occurred during the pandemic. The pandemic was the excuse de jour for cheating being ok. No matter who won the election, the election was a fraud. That includes Trump had he won.
We learned nothing from Al Gore's cheating.

I am not a big gambler, but I've always hated handing my money over now for an event that will happen months from now as a free loan.

It's like betting in the preseason how many wins my NFL team will get or who will win the Superbowl. Even if I win, that money is locked up for 4 months with the sports book, and that's not baked into the lines.

I feel the same about election betting. Not worth it.

A couple of right wingers claiming cheating but without evidence. Another one who lost a $1,000 bet but claims it was a purchase of the winner's soul.

I'll let you guys in on a little secret. This election isn't just about keeping Trump out of the White House. It's also about ensuring far right wing idiocy doesn't gain more of a foothold in our country.

^ Another lib clamoring for his hit of victimhood. You survived Trump's first term, sugar tatas. You might have to be less of a little bitch but I'm sure you can survive a second.

PS - Your soul wouldn't be worth $1,000 in monopoly money.

^ If you’re not cheating you aren’t trying hard enough.

Liberal logic: anyone he disagrees with is a right wing idiot. But throwing away billions of dollars in Ukraine, illegal aliens, Muslim terrorists, and freebies for freeloaders (apart from the illegals) makes perfect sense. If it were a storyline in a book, it wouldn't pass the suspension of disbelief; but this is liberal policy.

^ Weirdo

I don't have time for you today, loser. Get a life.

^Pathetic Weirdo
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

The more interesting bets are related to the national debt. Will we reach a point where the Fed has to create money to buy US Treasury bonds? Trump's talking about both tax increases (tariffs) and cuts. Harris is talking about income tax increases on higher incomes, cuts (credits) and new spending. Will the Fed refuse to do that? Would the Congress then step in and force it to happen? Would there be a flight from the US Dollar into the Euro, the Yuan, or Bitcoin?

^ We can't afford Democrats' spending ambitions. There aren't enough rich to tax, probably not enough middle class either. Nor Republican tax cuts.

We're paying for services already rendered. We're replacing low interest rate debt with high interest rate debt. This can't hold.

^ We also can't afford a massive global trade war, or the largest deportation operation in American history.

Puddy, clever idea earlier with puts on Truth Social. However, you're wrong that the stock is useless either way. If Trump loses, it's worthless, I agree. If he wins, acquiring the company becomes an excellent way to bribe the president with significant sums of money.

Normally, the threat of impeachment would be enough to prevent that kind of specter of malign influence, but the Republican Party is one of sycophants and Trump knows if he gets elected he can do whatever he wants because they'll never find 10 GOP senators to vote to remove him, no matter what he does. He can even incite a mob to overrun the capital and overturn our elections, and they won't give a fuck.

@RonJax - The TDS argument didn't fly when we've had 4 years of him. Trump used the threat of tariffs as a negotiating tactic but didn't implement them. And a mass deportation is only slightly more feasible than the left's of going door to door confiscating guns.

Trump has enough money under any circumstances that he doesn't need a bribe operation like the Clinton Foundation or donations to the Biden Center at UPenn (or Hunter's artwork). His net worth actually decreased while in office.

I think Trump wins but I still don't think the stock has any true value.

Not sure when he'll incite a mob to overrun the capital when he told people to protest peacefully and patriotically.

Whomever gets elected is unlikely to be able to do much. If the GOP takes the Senate they'll have the likes of Murkowski and Collins able to veto anything. My fear is that the Dems nuke the filibuster and we end up with the worst of the Harris liberal agenda and a packed Supreme Court, and everything will whipsaw the other direction and get nullified when Republicans take power. In their pursuit of short term interests, they will open the floodgates.

We can easily afford to return to the tax rates of Saint Ronald Reagan

^ Effective tax rates have been very flat over time.
https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/e….

@Puddy, you always throw out TDS to me, but it seems like you're the one suffering from some sort of derangement here.

Look at the GOP platform. Look at Agenda 47, look at Project 2025, and look at what Trump is actually talking about on the campaign trail.

Trade wars and mass deportations are the most well articulated, concrete policy positions he holds. Most of his platform is meaningless drivel (e.g. "Stop Inflation" and "Fix Healthcare") without any clearly articulated policy proposals for how to do those things.

But the trade wars, and even more dangerously his policy of Mass Deportations are well articulated. It's well documented that Trump, in office last time, was hell-bent on using the military to do immigration enforcement. And it's well documented that this time around he would fire enough generals until he was left with enough right-wing zealots to who would do what he wanted.

Media outlets have written about this with painstaking detail. Here's one example with a quote: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/…

> The president himself would often demand to send troops to block the border, according to the former officials. Aides would explain to Trump the lack of budget or legal authority to use the military for immigration, including a law against using the military for domestic law enforcement, according to former national security adviser John Bolton.

> “He couldn’t care less,” Bolton said.

Remember, this was the guy who separated parents from children as they crossed the border, he's capable of awful shit.

The only derangement I see here is your refusal to accept the basic fact that TRADE WARS and MASS DEPORTATIONS are FUNDAMENTAL to his platform. There's nothing else there. And you have to have some severe cognitive dissonance to look at these things and say "well, they're unrealistic, so they don't matter."

Because if those things don't matter to you, what does? If you think Trump's only detailed policy proposals are viable, what exactly about his campaign is compelling to you? I think there's some degree of projection and hope on your part about what a second Trump term would actually look like that is truly deranged.

We know what it would look like: MASS DEPORTATIONS, TRADE WARS, and the subsequent massive inflation, reduction in GDP, loss of jobs, and the human rights catastrophe those things would entail.

If Trump were smart, he'd align his tariff plans with those endorsed by Bernie Sanders ( https://www.sanders.senate.gov/press-rel… ). With the Biden-Harris wing of the Democrat Party, you can never be sure if they reject a particular tariff because it does net harm to US workers, or it does harm to the profits of a corporate donor to the corporatist Democrats.

"Look at the GOP platform. Look at Agenda 47, look at Project 2025,"

Trump has repeatedly disavowed Project 2025, that's a Democratic scare line.

"The president himself would often demand to send troops to block the border, according to the former officials"

If he demanded it and it didn't happen, so what? Presidents overstep bounds or try to all the time and get shot down by courts. But if you want to compare border policies that or even mass deportation (which isn't logistically possible and therefore irrelevant) I'll take Trump’s orderly border over importing 7 million voters to amnesty and make Democrats. We see across the country the strain on the community this is causing.

"And you have to have some severe cognitive dissonance to look at these things and say "well, they're unrealistic, so they don't matter.""

We DO have something to look at, it's called Trump's first time.

"We know what it would look like: MASS DEPORTATIONS, TRADE WARS, and the subsequent massive inflation, reduction in GDP, loss of jobs, and the human rights catastrophe those things would entail."

Massive inflation, you mean like WHAT THE BIDEN HARRIS ADMINISTRATION ACTUALLY GAVE US? You seem ignorant of stats the American people care about. It's wages and cost of living above all. Unemployment affects only the margins...I know libs like to tout it but if was mostly public sector or public sector adjacent jobs and these numbers are getting revised down a few months later anyways.

As for a human rights catastrophe, there is no inherent right to live in America and become a citizen. Closing the border is safer for American citizens that are getting menaced by central and South American gangs, saving young families from the toll of human traffickers, and keeping out admitted terrorists. Of course Democrats DGAF because they're hoping to import their own electorate, but trust me, Ron, the rest of us REALLY don't want this collateral damage.

Here's why I'm not scared of Trump’s proposals... because more than anything he said, we have four years of them. We had inflation free growth, peace and strength around the world, and a controlled border.

Now we have none of these, and Harris trying to pick and choose what parts of the Biden record she embraces.

Her words are what we actually have to do on, and her personnel choices and policy statements when she's NOT trying to win a general election are left of left.

You think inflation is bad? Just imagine if her spending policies get passed. You think the border is a human rights catastrophe? Just wait until it's open season. You think a trip to the grocery store is traumatic? Just wait until price controls on a 1.5% margin business are enacted. You think GDP will drop? Just imagine the capital flight when she taxes unrealized capital gains. You think Trump is a "dictator"? Look at who is implementing large scale censorship and saying "free speech" is passe. You think race relations are bad? Just wait until Kamala implements her promised committee on race reparations.

I'll admit I'm more anti Democrat than pro Republican. That's because I actually have an advanced business degree and have had my eyes open for the last 8 years.

I'm donating to and voting for Trump because I love this country.

I do not know whether RonJax is knowingly lying or if he is simply so easily misled by whatever Don Lemon and Rachel Maddow tell him. Most of what he repeated are disproven lies.

John Bolton said whatever he needed to say to sell a sensationalist tell-all memoir. It really seems to be the only reason he joined the administration. He probably had the title and table of contents written when he accepted the NSC post. What is true is that Biden repeatedly pushes his unlawful student loan forgivenesss program despite SCOTUS rulings that he has no authority. He pushes title IX reforms, even though SCOTUS has ruled it unlawful.

Child separation program? Started by Obama, who truly was capable of some awful shit. The pictures that CNN opened every program with? Taken during the Obama administration. However, it really was the good and smart thing to do to separate the children from the adults for their own safety. If the parents really had the childrens' welfare at heart, they never would have taken them with them on the criminal enterprise.

Biden, Obama, and Harris are hell bent and have been using federal agencies to suppress and attack American citizens - terrorists' designations for dissenting parents at school board meetings, strong-arming social media into broadcasting admin propaganda, terror watch lists for trouble making citizens like Tulsi Gabbard, the IRS denying tax exempt status for conservative non-profits, fake statements disavowing factual evidence such as the Biden laptop, secret FISA warrants based on known false statements, and the list goes on.

What is the democrat platform? Dismantle law enforcement, orange man bad, more tax and spend, MAGA bad, men in girls' locker rooms, and kill more babies? The lies, distortions, and fabrications used by the left in the attacks on Donald Trump are repugnant. If they were only being used by the shills and hacks in the spin rooms, that would be one thing; but they are being written and introduced by the WH press secretary and VP of the United States! That is lowering the bar and sullying the executive office in fashion so grotesque it is only exceeded by getting blown by a chubby intern and masturbating her with a cigar in the oval office.

I cannot understand how you can love this country and support Harris in the same sentence. These are mutually exclusive statements.

All you stupid fucks. You're going to vote who you're going to vote for, both sides are going to translate the data the way they want. Stop slapping away the reach around hand and get back into the rhythm of Melania, Boebert, AOC, and MTG (she's for Puddy and Gamm to tag team) dancing for money.

^ You're boring.

I would love to see real efforts to reduce the deficit and get our taxation and spending more in balance.

Part of this needs to be higher taxation on the wealthy. What Buffett said years ago is even more true today: “There's class warfare, all right, but it's my class, the rich class, that's making war, and we're winning.” Just check the article below. Or look at Musk on his way to becoming a trillionaire. These guys keep increasing their piece of the pie. It's mind-boggling how Republicans go along with this.

Richest 1% bag nearly twice as much wealth as the rest of the world put together over the past two years
https://www.oxfam.org/en/press-releases/…

^ Believe it or not I largely agree with you. But Harris' proposals are exactly the wrong way to do it. Extreme wealth is mobile. A mark-to-market tax will drive the rich--and the investment capital--out of the country so fast it'll blow your hair back. It'll also crash the stock market as Elon Musk, Warren Buffett, and Bill Gates have to sell stocks just to pay the tax bill. Price controls create shortages, we've seen this in the 70s, in the USSR, in rent control. But I guess that's "equity" for you, everyone equally miserable.

Income tax, there aren't enough rich out there. Any income tax would cut into the middle class. And saying you're only going to tax the top X% doesn't work, because those taxes (like the Alternative Minimum Tax) always creep down.

What we need to do are take away the mechanisms the super rich use to hide their income. All the deductions. Big companies love complexity, because they have the resources needed to navigate it. Imagine if we could figure out Amazon's taxes on a 3x5 index card. There's no question how much they owe, and no loopholes to skate.

And that also means reining in on government grants, which always seem to flow to the rich and well-connected, like we saw during COVID. Amazon and Wal-Mart flourished, mom-and-pop stores took it in the ass.

This is a win win, except for all the accountants and lawyers and bureaucrats whose job it's always been to make it harder for Americans to do their jobs.

^ It won't be a complete solution, but it can and should be part of the solution, if we do it in a smart and effective manner (to your point).

Immigrants coming into the country are a good thing, as theyll be willing to do all kinds of jobs the american public are too snobby to do. Their willingness to work for lower rates is even a benefit in the sex worker, escort, stripper industry. Even if some of them are criminal- you can increase police funding to counteract that. Of course you cant just give them free housing and free income- that defeats the purpose of letting them come here.

Yup, Antifa, a bunch of trust fund brats, is deeply tied to the Democrat Party. But Project 2025, which counts former Trump cabinet members among its leaders, is totally dissociated from Trump. Because remember, you can disavow what someone you hired says or does, after they no longer work for you. You can't expect a competent leader to use good judgement in who they hire, that would be unrealistic.

A good society maximizes median disposable wealth, while providing for everyone's basic needs. There's nothing inherently moral or beneficial about taxing rich people. But, it's blatantly idiotic to increase taxes on people other than those who can most afford to pay them. And, it's blatantly idiotic to say we can control the deficit with spending cuts only, without pointing to a specific list of cuts. And not controlling the defecit runs a big risk of us ending up like Argentina or Zimabwe.

https://www.project2025.org/about/adviso…

"About

Advisory Board

A broad coalition of over 100 conservative organizations has come together to form the project pillars.

Project 2025, organized by The Heritage Foundation, is a movement-wide effort guided by the conservative cause to address and reform the failings of big government and an undemocratic administrative state. The opinions of Project 2025 and The Heritage Foundation do not necessarily represent the opinions of every one of its advisory board partners."

@PuddyTat "What we need to do are take away the mechanisms the super rich use to hide their income. All the deductions. Big companies love complexity, because they have the resources needed to navigate it. Imagine if we could figure out Amazon's taxes on a 3x5 index card. There's no question how much they owe, and no loopholes to skate."

I agree with you but I don't think it is going to happen: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/OjLSTv2hV…

^ Unfortunately I agree with you. Big business has bought out everyone, and the country is run by lawyers who make bank on complexity.

Seems like half of government's job is to make it harder for average Americans to do their job. We need to pull a Javier Milei and cut, cut, cut. We'll see how unnecessary most of these people are.

Seems like replacing corporate and income taxes with a comprehensive value added tax is the way to go. Greatly expand (and simplify) Earned Income Credit to be fair to low income households. Property taxes should be on the value of land only, high, but with a big deductible for each person residing at the property. Instead of cutting taxes on high income people in hopes they'll invest it, a VAT only gives them a tax break if they actually do invest it (rather than consuming more).

^ I'd want to see the numbers but I'm intrigued by that.

@ibbaicnl I would be all for a Consumption tax to REPLACE the income tax. It sounds like it would be more fair because even people in organized crime, etc would have to pay taxes when they consume something (unless the buy it on the black market of course). But they would have to get rid of the Income Tax first. Otherwise we will just end up with more taxes like in Europe where they have Income Tax PLUS the VAT. "Value Added Tax" is a laughable name being that it adds no value.