Are you confident enough in the election results to bet on it?
Get ready for legalized betting as soon as next week on whether Democrats will take back control of the U.S. House of Representatives in November.
Kalshi will make its congressional-control contracts available to users for trading next week and will move quickly to list other kinds of political-event contracts, said Luana Lopes Lara, one of the co-founders of Kalshi, in an interview.
“Election markets are now legal in the United States for the first time in 100 years. Americans will finally be able to trade the election on a U.S.-regulated market,” the startup’s CEO and co-founder, Tarek Mansour, said in a statement.
Friday’s ruling comes as bettors have placed hundreds of millions of dollars of wagers on the November presidential election on Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market that is off-limits to Americans since it reached a 2022 settlement with the CFTC.
https://kalshi.com/
Kalshi will make its congressional-control contracts available to users for trading next week and will move quickly to list other kinds of political-event contracts, said Luana Lopes Lara, one of the co-founders of Kalshi, in an interview.
“Election markets are now legal in the United States for the first time in 100 years. Americans will finally be able to trade the election on a U.S.-regulated market,” the startup’s CEO and co-founder, Tarek Mansour, said in a statement.
Friday’s ruling comes as bettors have placed hundreds of millions of dollars of wagers on the November presidential election on Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market that is off-limits to Americans since it reached a 2022 settlement with the CFTC.
https://kalshi.com/
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56 comments
migrants technically at this point in time are prohibited to vote. but somehow and somewhere along the way the voting ratio could be migrant 1.5-2 to your 1 in a couple of months. i've seen the migrants interviewed on ytube. overwhelming 100% for the cackler. and there's probably a subgroup of them that jerks off to her before going to sleep.
Max Fried - U 18.5 outs
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - U 1.5 bb
Nats vs Mets - NRFI - yes
You have to be a degenerate to bet on any of these so sure I’ll bet on the election. Can’t wait to see what the odds are.
😁
Every one isn’t a neo nazi some folks actually have a reason to vote for Trump, you are the same as those you’re denigrating, just because you don’t agree doesn’t mean they’re evil, you are just as un American as the folks you’re attacking
It’s long past your 15 minutes of fame, your just not as important as you think you are.
Huh? You mean presenting bunches of unaccountable mail in votes and allowing voters without an ID to vote isn't within the rules?
Say it aint so.
If I could sit outside the voting places and point at individuals as they came out, and bet on who they'd say they voted for, I'd do that all day. As long as there was drinks and snacks too.
That way, if the candidate I do not want to win is elected at least I’ll win a grand to make me feel a little less bad on Election Day.
How did Dems cheat last time ?
We learned nothing from Al Gore's cheating.
It's like betting in the preseason how many wins my NFL team will get or who will win the Superbowl. Even if I win, that money is locked up for 4 months with the sports book, and that's not baked into the lines.
I feel the same about election betting. Not worth it.
I'll let you guys in on a little secret. This election isn't just about keeping Trump out of the White House. It's also about ensuring far right wing idiocy doesn't gain more of a foothold in our country.
PS - Your soul wouldn't be worth $1,000 in monopoly money.
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
We're paying for services already rendered. We're replacing low interest rate debt with high interest rate debt. This can't hold.
Puddy, clever idea earlier with puts on Truth Social. However, you're wrong that the stock is useless either way. If Trump loses, it's worthless, I agree. If he wins, acquiring the company becomes an excellent way to bribe the president with significant sums of money.
Normally, the threat of impeachment would be enough to prevent that kind of specter of malign influence, but the Republican Party is one of sycophants and Trump knows if he gets elected he can do whatever he wants because they'll never find 10 GOP senators to vote to remove him, no matter what he does. He can even incite a mob to overrun the capital and overturn our elections, and they won't give a fuck.
Trump has enough money under any circumstances that he doesn't need a bribe operation like the Clinton Foundation or donations to the Biden Center at UPenn (or Hunter's artwork). His net worth actually decreased while in office.
I think Trump wins but I still don't think the stock has any true value.
Not sure when he'll incite a mob to overrun the capital when he told people to protest peacefully and patriotically.
Whomever gets elected is unlikely to be able to do much. If the GOP takes the Senate they'll have the likes of Murkowski and Collins able to veto anything. My fear is that the Dems nuke the filibuster and we end up with the worst of the Harris liberal agenda and a packed Supreme Court, and everything will whipsaw the other direction and get nullified when Republicans take power. In their pursuit of short term interests, they will open the floodgates.
https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/e….
Look at the GOP platform. Look at Agenda 47, look at Project 2025, and look at what Trump is actually talking about on the campaign trail.
Trade wars and mass deportations are the most well articulated, concrete policy positions he holds. Most of his platform is meaningless drivel (e.g. "Stop Inflation" and "Fix Healthcare") without any clearly articulated policy proposals for how to do those things.
But the trade wars, and even more dangerously his policy of Mass Deportations are well articulated. It's well documented that Trump, in office last time, was hell-bent on using the military to do immigration enforcement. And it's well documented that this time around he would fire enough generals until he was left with enough right-wing zealots to who would do what he wanted.
Media outlets have written about this with painstaking detail. Here's one example with a quote: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/…
> The president himself would often demand to send troops to block the border, according to the former officials. Aides would explain to Trump the lack of budget or legal authority to use the military for immigration, including a law against using the military for domestic law enforcement, according to former national security adviser John Bolton.
> “He couldn’t care less,” Bolton said.
Remember, this was the guy who separated parents from children as they crossed the border, he's capable of awful shit.
The only derangement I see here is your refusal to accept the basic fact that TRADE WARS and MASS DEPORTATIONS are FUNDAMENTAL to his platform. There's nothing else there. And you have to have some severe cognitive dissonance to look at these things and say "well, they're unrealistic, so they don't matter."
Because if those things don't matter to you, what does? If you think Trump's only detailed policy proposals are viable, what exactly about his campaign is compelling to you? I think there's some degree of projection and hope on your part about what a second Trump term would actually look like that is truly deranged.
We know what it would look like: MASS DEPORTATIONS, TRADE WARS, and the subsequent massive inflation, reduction in GDP, loss of jobs, and the human rights catastrophe those things would entail.
Trump has repeatedly disavowed Project 2025, that's a Democratic scare line.
"The president himself would often demand to send troops to block the border, according to the former officials"
If he demanded it and it didn't happen, so what? Presidents overstep bounds or try to all the time and get shot down by courts. But if you want to compare border policies that or even mass deportation (which isn't logistically possible and therefore irrelevant) I'll take Trump’s orderly border over importing 7 million voters to amnesty and make Democrats. We see across the country the strain on the community this is causing.
"And you have to have some severe cognitive dissonance to look at these things and say "well, they're unrealistic, so they don't matter.""
We DO have something to look at, it's called Trump's first time.
"We know what it would look like: MASS DEPORTATIONS, TRADE WARS, and the subsequent massive inflation, reduction in GDP, loss of jobs, and the human rights catastrophe those things would entail."
Massive inflation, you mean like WHAT THE BIDEN HARRIS ADMINISTRATION ACTUALLY GAVE US? You seem ignorant of stats the American people care about. It's wages and cost of living above all. Unemployment affects only the margins...I know libs like to tout it but if was mostly public sector or public sector adjacent jobs and these numbers are getting revised down a few months later anyways.
As for a human rights catastrophe, there is no inherent right to live in America and become a citizen. Closing the border is safer for American citizens that are getting menaced by central and South American gangs, saving young families from the toll of human traffickers, and keeping out admitted terrorists. Of course Democrats DGAF because they're hoping to import their own electorate, but trust me, Ron, the rest of us REALLY don't want this collateral damage.
Here's why I'm not scared of Trump’s proposals... because more than anything he said, we have four years of them. We had inflation free growth, peace and strength around the world, and a controlled border.
Now we have none of these, and Harris trying to pick and choose what parts of the Biden record she embraces.
Her words are what we actually have to do on, and her personnel choices and policy statements when she's NOT trying to win a general election are left of left.
You think inflation is bad? Just imagine if her spending policies get passed. You think the border is a human rights catastrophe? Just wait until it's open season. You think a trip to the grocery store is traumatic? Just wait until price controls on a 1.5% margin business are enacted. You think GDP will drop? Just imagine the capital flight when she taxes unrealized capital gains. You think Trump is a "dictator"? Look at who is implementing large scale censorship and saying "free speech" is passe. You think race relations are bad? Just wait until Kamala implements her promised committee on race reparations.
I'll admit I'm more anti Democrat than pro Republican. That's because I actually have an advanced business degree and have had my eyes open for the last 8 years.
I'm donating to and voting for Trump because I love this country.
John Bolton said whatever he needed to say to sell a sensationalist tell-all memoir. It really seems to be the only reason he joined the administration. He probably had the title and table of contents written when he accepted the NSC post. What is true is that Biden repeatedly pushes his unlawful student loan forgivenesss program despite SCOTUS rulings that he has no authority. He pushes title IX reforms, even though SCOTUS has ruled it unlawful.
Child separation program? Started by Obama, who truly was capable of some awful shit. The pictures that CNN opened every program with? Taken during the Obama administration. However, it really was the good and smart thing to do to separate the children from the adults for their own safety. If the parents really had the childrens' welfare at heart, they never would have taken them with them on the criminal enterprise.
Biden, Obama, and Harris are hell bent and have been using federal agencies to suppress and attack American citizens - terrorists' designations for dissenting parents at school board meetings, strong-arming social media into broadcasting admin propaganda, terror watch lists for trouble making citizens like Tulsi Gabbard, the IRS denying tax exempt status for conservative non-profits, fake statements disavowing factual evidence such as the Biden laptop, secret FISA warrants based on known false statements, and the list goes on.
What is the democrat platform? Dismantle law enforcement, orange man bad, more tax and spend, MAGA bad, men in girls' locker rooms, and kill more babies? The lies, distortions, and fabrications used by the left in the attacks on Donald Trump are repugnant. If they were only being used by the shills and hacks in the spin rooms, that would be one thing; but they are being written and introduced by the WH press secretary and VP of the United States! That is lowering the bar and sullying the executive office in fashion so grotesque it is only exceeded by getting blown by a chubby intern and masturbating her with a cigar in the oval office.
I cannot understand how you can love this country and support Harris in the same sentence. These are mutually exclusive statements.
Part of this needs to be higher taxation on the wealthy. What Buffett said years ago is even more true today: “There's class warfare, all right, but it's my class, the rich class, that's making war, and we're winning.” Just check the article below. Or look at Musk on his way to becoming a trillionaire. These guys keep increasing their piece of the pie. It's mind-boggling how Republicans go along with this.
Richest 1% bag nearly twice as much wealth as the rest of the world put together over the past two years
https://www.oxfam.org/en/press-releases/…
Income tax, there aren't enough rich out there. Any income tax would cut into the middle class. And saying you're only going to tax the top X% doesn't work, because those taxes (like the Alternative Minimum Tax) always creep down.
What we need to do are take away the mechanisms the super rich use to hide their income. All the deductions. Big companies love complexity, because they have the resources needed to navigate it. Imagine if we could figure out Amazon's taxes on a 3x5 index card. There's no question how much they owe, and no loopholes to skate.
And that also means reining in on government grants, which always seem to flow to the rich and well-connected, like we saw during COVID. Amazon and Wal-Mart flourished, mom-and-pop stores took it in the ass.
This is a win win, except for all the accountants and lawyers and bureaucrats whose job it's always been to make it harder for Americans to do their jobs.
A good society maximizes median disposable wealth, while providing for everyone's basic needs. There's nothing inherently moral or beneficial about taxing rich people. But, it's blatantly idiotic to increase taxes on people other than those who can most afford to pay them. And, it's blatantly idiotic to say we can control the deficit with spending cuts only, without pointing to a specific list of cuts. And not controlling the defecit runs a big risk of us ending up like Argentina or Zimabwe.
"About
Advisory Board
A broad coalition of over 100 conservative organizations has come together to form the project pillars.
Project 2025, organized by The Heritage Foundation, is a movement-wide effort guided by the conservative cause to address and reform the failings of big government and an undemocratic administrative state. The opinions of Project 2025 and The Heritage Foundation do not necessarily represent the opinions of every one of its advisory board partners."