Biden isn't going anywhere - July 12, 2024
rickdugan
Verified and Certifiable Super-Reviewer
Friday, July 12, 2024 4:21 PM
I am putting this prediction on record. Biden is not going anywhere and all the teeth gnashing and other melodramatics in the world aren't going to change that.
I've been saying this throughout this process, but a handful of you have been clutching on to wishful thinking and the absurd noise in the press. Clearly those of you who have insisted on believing that he would step down, despite his continued insistence that he would not, do not understand the dynamics of power and human nature. Once a man tastes the sheer power and glory of the Presidency, he inevitably wants to keep it. Or in Trump's case, reclaim it.
He has the pledged delegates and few if any are going to defect (which would be political suicide), so nobody can make him go. This is especially true since his press conference last night, where he put to bed the notions that he was just a vegetable requiring protection from direct questioning.
It would seem that the press is finally starting to embrace this reality. For the past two weeks, all the major news sites have been flooded with endless negative Biden articles and editorials. After last night, it has slowed down to a trickle. By the beginning of next week, I suspect that most of them will finish switching gears and return to attacks on Trump.
So Dems, at this point, the only thing left for you to do is stand by your man.
I've been saying this throughout this process, but a handful of you have been clutching on to wishful thinking and the absurd noise in the press. Clearly those of you who have insisted on believing that he would step down, despite his continued insistence that he would not, do not understand the dynamics of power and human nature. Once a man tastes the sheer power and glory of the Presidency, he inevitably wants to keep it. Or in Trump's case, reclaim it.
He has the pledged delegates and few if any are going to defect (which would be political suicide), so nobody can make him go. This is especially true since his press conference last night, where he put to bed the notions that he was just a vegetable requiring protection from direct questioning.
It would seem that the press is finally starting to embrace this reality. For the past two weeks, all the major news sites have been flooded with endless negative Biden articles and editorials. After last night, it has slowed down to a trickle. By the beginning of next week, I suspect that most of them will finish switching gears and return to attacks on Trump.
So Dems, at this point, the only thing left for you to do is stand by your man.
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169 comments
But I hope you're not.
Unless the Clintons slip cyanide into his ice cream, he runs or splits the party.
They have no good options.
To answer your question: I think Biden will not step down, even though I think he should.
Interestingly, betting markets right now (like predictit) have Kamala at higher odds of winning the Dem nomination, and the presidency than Biden. I think a savvy gambler would be dumping some money into the Biden right now, because even though I want him to step down, I don't think he's getting out.
If his family had any sense they’d put a stop to him running. Perhaps his wife is too much in love with being First Lady to give it up without a fight.
> Is there anything the party can do to stop him running, are there any mechanisms that don’t involve bumping him off?
In short, nope. Biden has already won enough pledged delegates in the primaries. Pledge delegates are legally bound to vote for him in the convention.
There's an interesting history here. It used to be that the majority of delegates to the Dem convention were "super delegates" - party leaders, members of congress, governors, etc. There were enough super delegates that the party leadership could have override the will of the primary voters, if necessary.
In 2016 during Bernie Sanders' first run at the Dem nomination, most super delegates overwhelmingly favored Clinton. She beat Bernie fair and square in the primaries, but nonetheless, the Sanders camp was raised a big ruckus about the undemocratic nature of super delegates. In 2018, the party acceded to the Sanders camp complaints and removed super-delegates from the process, unless it becomes a contested convention.
So that leaves us with only two off ramps: either Biden dies, he willingly steps down (forcing a contested convention where super delegates decide), or if neither of those happen, he'll be the nominee.
Now the super delegates only get a vote if the nominee is not selected in the first round of voting. Obviously this won't make it to round 2 given Biden's pledged delegates.
Seeing all these democrats in congress calling for Biden to step down are only doing it for one thing, they’re in a competitive race and want to garner some recognition to get votes, especially in swing states to draw independents. Once it becomes clear they’re sticking with Biden then all democrats will fall in line lock step.
So who has the leverage to push him in any direction other than his own? A handful of Congressmen? A few actors? A few editorial boards? The answer is: None of them. He holds all the cards.
The Democratic Party rules for delegates say that “All delegates to the National Convention pledged to a presidential candidate shall in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them." In theory this would provide a loophole for delegates to decide that they can't "in good conscience" vote for Biden because of his mental state. There are a few state that legally require delegates to vote for the candidate that won the party primary, but there are enough states that don't legally require it that it could work. However, since the delegates are selected by the Biden campaign, the chances of more than a small percentage turning against him are slim to none.
Another possible, but unlikely, route would be to change the party rules to either allow the delegates to change their votes or to reinstate the "super delegates" that they previously used. Given how much time and effort the Democrats have put into calling Trump a "threat to democracy," I can't imagine that they would choose to change their part rules to ignore tens of millions of votes.
The most likely scenario wouldn't technically remove him as the nominee, but it would give him a strong enough shove towards the door to basically force him to withdraw. The DNC Chair and the heads of the various Political Action Committes that are funding his campaign can meet with Pres. Biden and tell him they are cutting off their financial support. They would then use their massive financial support towards supporting senate and house candidates to try to hold onto control of the senate and retake the house in November in an effort to keep Trump from passing any legislation. The DNC could also get basically all of the surrogates that are campaigning for Biden to stop holding any events for him. Even in his current mental state Biden would realize their is no chance to win and likely drop out if that happened.
@rick, I get it. I'm definitely not at all a Sanders fan, but at the time it seemed to me those changes were right.
But now, I wish the party had those super delegates, because I don't think old Joe is going to step down on his own. I do wonder though if a call from Obama might tip the scale for him.
The rest of the people.
If I were a Democratic powerbroker, I'd be sucking off donors and potential candidates to provide the most golden of golden parachutes. Houses, personal servants for Doctor Doctor Doctor Doctor Jill, pardons and the finest Colombian white and Russian hookers for Cokehead Hunter.
Joe says increasingly bizarre things every day, like referring to SecDef Lloyd Austin as "the black guy" and talking about his mom telling him to be Obama's VP because he's black. This is absolutely absurd. Parkinson's doesn't set in overnight, how could they have let this happen? I would have tried to edge him out before the campaign got serious, but the next best time to do that is now. If he didn't go, I'd rally the troops to 25th amendment him right fucking now. Give Kamala at least 3.5 months of incumbency.
I don't like her chances much better against Trump. She's not an electoral draw and Trump can absolutely hammer her over the border, but at least she isn't going to completely faceplant in a debate, and unlikely to contract dementia in the next 4 years.
Anyone else is going to have their weaknesses--I see Democrats trying to talk themselves into Newsom and Whitmer--but if they don't coalesce around someone and fast, the Trump Train is going to be unstoppable.
I also question the value of pressuring him to step down at this point. A certain % of Dem primary voters will not forgive the Party if this happens, at least in time for the upcoming election. It doesn't matter how much the Dems spin it or how gracious Biden might be in conceding, the damage will be done. Republicans will be able to keep the backstabbing disloyalty front and center during the election cycle.
I think Kamala got a raw deal on the border and the vice presidency generally, but that die has already been cast. She can’t change that narrative (why impeach Mayorkas if it was Kamala’s fault). They won’t put Kamala in now. She’d be term limited in 2028. Putting her in now would be shortsighted, though that’s probably the best adjective to describe the morons who run the DNC.
Whitmer and Shapiro come from hotly contested states, but the former has her handling of COVID and the latter is a Jew in a party with a virulent contingent of anti-Semites. Some talk about Beshear but he's from a local political dynasty that might not translate nationally. Maybe the race- and gender-obsessed party feels they have to choose a white man to be VP to a black woman, but wokeness is on the decline. Of those I think Shapiro might be the best shot, and gamble that the Hamas lovers will accept it, even if grudgingly.
Harris was publicly given the border. Yeah, it's a tough situation, but the administration opened that wound. Biden could have kept Trump's measures in place, or did what he did the other week 3 years ago. It looks like what it is, a naked political calculation. But what she actually did might matter less than the fact that Republicans have a formidable advantage on that issue and Trump has the clips (and the balls) to flog her with it.
Agreed.
I am seeing Mark Kelly getting some attention now... definitely a worthy candidate.
As usual with him, it’s a partial lie. He is mentally and physically diminished, but the real reason is terrible polling and the drag on other Democrat candidates.
His campaign just made that clear - yet again - just a couple of hours ago. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/19/biden-wo…
He is not going anywhere folks and it was never a serious consideration. Nobody who tastes the sweet deference and trappings of being the most powerful man in the world is going to give it up willingly. The world hangs on his every word and action. He is surrounded by people waiting to do his bidding. He is a power broker in some of the most important decisions made and actions taken around the world. You can be absolutely certain that he has no intention of leaving all of that before he must.
So now all he has to do is keep making it clear and keep campaigning. He has the delegates and the DNC needs to get the virtual nomination done by August 5th in order to avoid potential issues in the Ohio ballot process. Soon enough the noise will be over and the Dems will shut their whiny hypocritical mouths and grudgingly get back in line.
Remember, the democrat party only cares about taking and holding power. Joe Biden has become a hindrance to that consolidation of power, and so is being forced out.
Do you think they would go so far as to take him out "unwillingly"?
25th Amendment is very messy politically. But another Secret Service failure might get the job done. Hell, after last Saturday, it wouldn't be hard to believe their incompetence is systemic, and wasn't just a one-off?
Tbh I struggle to see how. Even assuming that the VP and all of those heads of executive offices found the courage to try invoke the 25th Amendment, the President can dispute it, which would then require a 2/3 majority of both houses of Congress to enact. It would never happen, for too many reasons to easily spell out.
So that leaves the delegates who are pledged to Biden. I doubt that trying to turn them would be much use either. They are political animals themselves. If it were you, which story would you prefer to go home with as you plan the next steps in your political career, that you: (a) stuck with the nominee who the voters elected because you felt like you didn't have a choice, or (b) decided to take matters in your own hands and completely ignored the nomination process that took place in your state?
So no, I just don't see a realistic path to remove him against his will.
“Yes I do - I promised my son (bullshit on top of bullshit) who died saving Audie Murphy from the Krauts.”
Time will tell.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/19/politics/…
This guy is going all the way.
Maybe this could be his new campaign ad:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-quyw6ys…
He told a story at some recent NAACP meeting about someone black he knew when he was young named “Mouse”. Why? Does he think black people hear him and think “He’s one of us!”?
Really something a totally out of touch old man who’s never corrected would do.
At this point, Biden is only dropping out of the race against his will. Even if he announces on Monday that he is dropping out for health reasons, family reasons, the good of the party, duty to his nation, or anything else, we ALL know that is is not of his own choosing and against his own wishes. The time for Biden to retain dignity and do the right thing because it is the right thing to do has passed. All he can hope for now is damage control.
Even after he drops out or even if he is voted out, I hope that the Republican congress and Trump's administration continues to investigate Joe and Hunter and reveal all of their crimes and prosecute them to the fullest extent of the law. The democrat party has to be brought to heel and be given a taste of their own medicine. There is no other way they will learn the lesson.
Party leadership foolishly believes that they can message their way out of it, but it's gone on too long and been too public for that to work now. Their best bet is to get behind Biden ASAP to stem the bleeding.
I will say if they can’t convince Biden to step aside in the next few days, they will probably coalesce around Biden, and drop the whole idea, until after the election is over, and if he doesn’t get elected there will be repercussions to his legacy.
It's not gonna be Kamala, and Gavin seems to be focused on 2028.
Guess what else you need for the presidency. Sound judgment. Communication skills. Stamina. You should have scuttled him 2 years ago.
What are the clubs like in Chicago? I used to live there in the 80s, but hadn't taken the pill yet ...
But tbh I also think that the Dems made a terrible mistake by going this route. It doesn't matter how gracious Biden is about this, the reality is that they ganged up on him and pressured him out and everyone knows it. Loyalty may mean little to the hysterical ankle biting brand of Democrat found in many large coastal cities, but it still means a lot in places like the heartland and parts of the south. IMO this is going to come back to haunt them in November.
It might look like "ganging up", but the more honest characterization is that a wide spectrum on the left spoke up out of concern for their party, the election and the country. Saying they were disloyal seems like another cheap swipe to make Dems look bad. If you think some loyal Biden supporters will now seem betrayed and be an obstacle to the party uniting around a new leader, I am certain you will again be proven wrong.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-el…
What else did I say? State ballot laws prevent Joe from just dropping out.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/…
Man, I'm tired of being right.
@wld4
You nailed it (if you just scratch off the last three words).
And yes, the Dems will unite around a new candidate. ANY candidate. Because they don't know the definition of loyalty (or honor, or shame, for that matter.)
How is the power play by the Obama/Pelosi/Shumer/Hollywood elites disenfranchising the Democratic voters not a threat to Democracy?
As far as my finances go, I'm most concerned about the Trump-Vance plan to devalue the dollar, which would be hugely deflationary and devastate my own finances (as it would for most of the middle class.) https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/16/us/po…
You come at the king, you better not miss.
almost all respected economists agree his policies comtributed to the recent run up inflation, yet the laggimg affecta occured during Biden's time in office. To be fair, politicians lobe to spend $$ and Biden's inflation reductiom act added the same amount to our total debt adding fuel
to the fire of inflation. Higher taxes on all of us are coming to pay to service this massive debt, and trump thinks we can simply default on it(SMH).
> RonJax, I’m sure you meant devaluing the dollar would be inflatuonary, rather than deflationary.
YES, thank you for the correction. I typed the wrong thing, devaluing the dollar would indeed be deflationary. So would the GOP's proposed mass deportation program. Not to mention the human rights disaster it would cause, and the heartache it would cause on TUSCL when all of our favorite Cubana dancers are disappeared into the night.
> To be fair, politicians lobe to spend $$ and Biden's inflation reductiom act added the same amount to our total debt adding fuel to the fire of inflation.
The inflation reduction act reduced the deficit by $238 billion. https://www.crfb.org/blogs/cbo-scores-ir…
In the scheme of the trillions of dollars spent during the pandemic (mostly under Trump) it's a drop in the bucket. But it's better than nothing.
If we don't want to default on our debt or pay higher taxes (and I certainly don't want either of those things) someone is going to need to touch the 3rd rail of politics here and start cutting entitlements.
The democrat party has never cared about laws which inhibit their power grabs and narratives. If they cannot change them, they break them. 2020 is a prime example. I am hoping that Speaker Johnson and the current Republican leaders follow through on their vow to fight back and stop them.
How is it not disenfranchisement?
Can you only imagine if Trump’s team said “there’s no path to victory unless we wipe out every primary vote from a black voter?”
This is the same thing. The true power brokers of the Democratic Party determined that Biden cannot win so they just threw every primary vote into the trash heap so they can select another candidate (one the voters did not chose)
I don’t think they’ll (MAGA) recover from this, and the Republican Party Leadership will recalculate their position and get back to some semblance of normality.
It’s about time.
President Joe Biden made the right decision for our country and I thank him for putting the interests of our Nation ahead of his own....
https://x.com/Mike_Pence/status/18153883…
Not sure why you had to create a hypothetical with black votes. Does that make it more inflammatory? It still doesn’t work.
14 million people voted for a guy who dropped out of the race. Are you saying Dean Philips should be the nominee? That Biden should be forced to run? Republicans and Dems don’t agree on much, but 80% 90%? of the country thought Biden should with. Now he does, and you’re saying it’s the wrong thing to do? You’re in a tiny minority.
Bring back the edit button!
Facts.
Read the rules of both political parties and you’ll understand that primaries are non binding, if they’re nonbinding they can’t disenfranchise anyone
Remember it’s better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool, then to open your mouth and remove all doubt.
@wld4tatas: I'm willing to be wrong here too, but I don't think I will be. 14 million primary voters came out to select him as their nominee. To see him treated like that will inevitably piss some % of them off, which is why I couldn't believe that they would go so far so publicly that he would feel forced to step down. IMO this will definitely come home to roost in the Dem voter turnout.
Now my guess is that Obama, Pelosi & Co. understand this, but believe that the alternative is even worse. Time will tell but IMO they shot themselves in the foot on this one by under-estimating how the loyalty factor will play into the thinking of some Dems, especially older ones in more centrist swing states.
Tell us have you ever read 1984 or Animal Farm, you might learn something if do,
You’re an ass not a big swinging dick grow up child you have a lot to learn
Goober is just a glutton for punishment ain’t he. Little fool was probably home schooled by dropouts , I’m sure he never read either of those books, ignorant as he is.
Additionally supposedly there was a microsoft outage last week and that caused an issue with their AI Joe Biden. So they wont be able to keep using AI with him and thats why they need to have someone else become president soon.
What a stupid comment , still it’s exactly what we all expect from you.
Hopefully he’ll step down or at least getting fitted for a muzzle and be confined to his office like he was during Obama’s second term. Btw - Obama and Biden hate each other.
Yeah they're digging him up and reanimating him so he can talk to us one last time to follow the narrative and tell us how he's sacrificing himself and doing it for the country even though just days ago he was fighting and screaming to hold on to the job.
Lol
I'll point out number 4 specifically from that list: Unreasonable fears about the outside world that often involve evil conspiracies and persecutions
If you actually think Joe Biden is reanimated or an AI, review those other cult warning signs and do some introspection. Maybe do some consideration too for where you're getting your information from.
Biden has COVID, that's why he hasn't been public. Shit I'm half his age and it took me weeks to get over COVID. And had he actually died? That probably would've been the best thing he could have done for his legacy, what would have been the point of covering that up?
convicted felon - wrongfully convicted
rapist - Lie. never convicted of rape
tried to overthrow our government - Lie. He had nothing to do with the rioters who were already at the Capitol while he was giving a speech
There will always be the 30% - 35% dyed in wool party loyalists who will vote for their party's nominee even if it's Mickey Mouse. The 30% - 40% independent voters will be the key, especially in ~ 6 key swing states. This is a different landscape than 08 and 12, it ain't over till it's over.
@minnow my take is there is practically fucking zero undecided voters in this election. You either hate the awful things Trump has done and would never vote for him, or you don't. There are virtually no voters who haven't already formed a solid opinion on whether they prefer Trump or Kamala.
What will change this election is turnout. There are handfuls of republican leaning voters who are squicked out by Trump, but would never vote democrat, and it's a question of whether the Trump campaign can convince these voters to come out and pull the lever for Trump.
And there's a shit ton of apathetic voters who likely would vote democractic, but might also just stay home on election day. I think that's the key demographic that decides this election, and they decided it not by picking one candidate over the other, but by making the decision to vote or not.
I've been saying this for months: this election will come down to turn out. If it's a low turnout election, Trump will win it, likely by winning in the electoral college without winning the popular vote as he did in 2016. If this election is a high turnout election, it's game over for team Trump.
Lots of liberal bias here. Trump is known, Harris less so, and where she is, she's known for the wrong things. She's not a vegetable but she's left of left, not charismatic, and represents a state that people are leaving in droves. She was far from her own party's preference last cycle.
Take the polls. Note how Trump has outperformed in his two prior elections. Add a couple points for inherent GOP advantage in the electoral vote. What do you get? A lot of Dem wishful thinking.
No question: Trump over-performed and republican voters were grossly undersampled in the 2016 election. In fact, at the time that was a world wide trend. The right-wing showing in the Brexit election that preceded Trump's election by a few months was also a huge surprise to pollsters and prognosticators (and to Tory David Cameron, who lost his job over it.)
But Trump did NOT over-perform in 2020. The polls were actually pretty accurate then - within a single normal polling error accurate. And in the congressional elections of 2022, the polls grossly over-sampled republican support. Prognosticators were expecting that election to be a red tsunami and instead Republicans failed to take the Senate and were left with an unmanageable narrow majority in the house.
Another data point to throw in the mix - some recent international elections have shown that pollsters continue to underestimate leftist voters as they did in the US in 2022. I'll point to the unexpected 2-to-1 blowout for MORENA / Sheinbuam in Mexico in June and the sudden unexpected surge from the far left in France as recent examples. The French prognosticators all thought Marine Le Pen would be the next prime minister, but thanks to far left voters, Macron will hang on for another term. In both elections, pollsters completely under sampled left leaning voters, and in particular, energy from the far left.
I'll be the first to admit that one should be careful of extrapolating international trends to US elections. But what I do feel strongly about is that you can't count on the idea that polls will under represent republicans... the opposite could certainly be true, and in fact that looks like it could be the case from the very few tea leaves we have.
I would highly recommend subscribing to Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin if you are genuinely interested in seeing some cogent and non-partisan prognostication. He's written a lot recently about this very topic of over/under sampling.
I hope every liberal is as blinded by bias and hate as RonJax2 is. That will make this election so much easier and their meltdown so much more fun to watch.
As an ardent capitalist I am virulently opposed to socialism, which I would define as government ownership of the means of production.
I fail to see how impeaching Trump for trying to trade favors for Ukrainian aid, or impeaching him for sending a mob to storm the capital and trying through other means to overturn the election, have anything to do with the government owning the means of production.
I mean, even setting aside the treacherous mob of Jan 6th, this phone call between Trump and GA Sec'y of State Brad Raffensburger alone was both impeachable and disqualifying: https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/03/politics/…
And I have no idea what CHOP is. And further more I'm glad that most democrats condemned the violence surrounding the George Floyd protests.
And personally, I'm terrified of the race riots we might have under another Trump presidency. From Unite the Right in Charlottesville to the Floyd riots, Trump was at the center of all of this. Remember when Trump tear gassed a bunch of peaceful protestors so he could hold up a fucking bible in Lafeyette Square? https://www.npr.org/2020/06/01/867532070…
I think it's unlikely that a majority of Americans will want to go back to those days.
I mean, I just defined it in my previous comment? And I asked you to offer your definition which you continually refuse to do? I suspect that for you socialism is anything disagrees with dear leader's policies. But prove me wrong by offering your own cogent definition. Go on.
> Life in America was better under Trump
Man, I vividly remember life under Trump. The pandemic, the race riots, the bitter discord everywhere in the country. Parents separate from children. Muslims banned from entering the country. Kowtowing to foreign autocrats. He's the most divisive president we've ever had. Maybe you enjoyed the pandemic and the race riots, but not for all the tea in china would I want to relive those years.
And yeah, I guess I'm not reading the same right-wing propaganda as you. The best I can come up with from a google search is that CHOP is a mixture of weed and tobacco smoked through a bong. So maybe you can enlighten those of us that don't speak QAnon as to what CHOP is.
Maybe do some consideration too for where you're getting your information from.'
^
Wow dude you really think I was serious!
My first thought is you can't see a joke or have a laugh about it but then i recall you leftists don't understand humor and have a laugh because you're too wraped up over anyone that doesn't see things your way and can only stomp your feet cry and hand wring as a response.
'If you actually think Joe Biden is reanimated or an AI, review those other cult warning signs and do some introspection. Maybe do some consideration too for where you're getting your information from.'
^
No genius I don't think biden is reanimated, Lol
And regarding cult warning signs, introspection, and consideration of where people get information from, follow your own advice as it's obvious your talking points are based off of the MSM who shout your talking points every chance they get and until recently proclaimed as fact that biden has been effective and healthy since before the previous election whereas anyone with half a brain could see him as senile and feeble, a shell of a normal man.
I don't recall ever engaging you here in the past because I didn't feel a need to but since you directly referred to my previous comment the need arose to set things straight. Now that I've done that fire away with your rebuttals but i''m going back to not paying attention to your MSM kool aide comments.
Look at where Trump was vs the last election cycle and he's way ahead. Harris gives democrats another chance but if it were held today I think Trump decisively wins.
I admire Silver and last I recall he's 70/30 Trump. But I've predicted every election in my adult lifetime based on who has a stronger narrative. Maybe Harris comes up with some winning message and platform but she hasn't done that in the past. She's well left of Biden and doesn't have a track record of success. Right now the left's prevailing narrative isn't even TDS anymore, it's the race and gender cards. And she hasn't even faced the brunt of Trump yet.
If she wants to win she'll go center, tell the left to take a hike, and break from her past of reparations, abortion up to birth, and outlawing private insurance. If she doesn't disavow those, she's going to get creamed.
I guess I couldn't. It was hard to tell you were joking because the Trump world is full of ridiculous conspiracies. Something like 20% of the country literally believes he was anointed by God to take on the Democratic party which they believe is a cabal of pedophiles who drink the blood of children. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/QAnon
Your comment on reanimated Joe seems pretty benign when compared to the shit that some Trumpsters actually believe. Note that congresswoman Lauren Boebert has demanded repeatedly on Twitter that Biden show "proof of life". https://x.com/laurenboebert/status/18154…
> i recall you leftists don't understand humor
I'm not a leftist. But OK.
> your talking points are based off of the MSM
I read a handful of reputable newspapers daily, including one conservative leaning publication. I avoid cable news except during breaking news, and I generally eschew social media with TUSCL being the obvious exception. If you consider newspapers to be part of the "mainstream media" I guess I'm guilty as charged.
I'm curious, where do you get your own information from?
As far as Donald Trump? I have hated the motherfucker since 1989. He will always be the typical NYC douchebag democrat friend of the Clintons he used to be in my eyes. I hated his TV show, think he'd be richer if he put his inherited 41 million into a passbook savings account and is living proof of why Ivy League schools are simply bullshit. Compared to progressives, whom I have to deal with every waking moment of my life here in the people's republic, he would be my pick if I thought it meant anything.
I used to be active in politics and I majored in history, which I have loved since I learned to read 60+ years ago. My opinions are based on a belief that they are right, unlike other people who base their beliefs on what is best for themselves. Example: student loan forgiveness is nothing more than a blatant misuse of taxpayer money to buy votes. I look at it as a crime. Paying back student loans is tough, but I paid mine back, even though my subsidized interest rate was higher than mortgages are now. We are reaping the negatives of catering to the weak and the fucked up. I am almost 67 so I will miss the coming tragedy, but I will not pretend its not coming.
As far as Donald Trump? I have hated the motherfucker since 1989. He will always be the typical NYC douchebag democrat friend of the Clintons he used to be in my eyes. I hated his TV show, think he'd be richer if he put his inherited 41 million into a passbook savings account and is living proof of why Ivy League schools are simply bullshit. Compared to progressives, whom I have to deal with every waking moment of my life here in the people's republic, he would be my pick if I thought it meant anything.
I used to be active in politics and I majored in history, which I have loved since I learned to read 60+ years ago. My opinions are based on a belief that they are right, unlike other people who base their beliefs on what is best for themselves. Example: student loan forgiveness is nothing more than a blatant misuse of taxpayer money to buy votes. I look at it as a crime.
> Look at where Trump was vs the last election cycle and he's way ahead. Harris gives democrats another chance but if it were held today I think Trump decisively wins.
FWIW, I mostly agree with these statements here. Trump is in the pole position. Harris shakes things up, but she's probably an underdog *at this exact moment* . We've had some recent polls in, and they're all over the place, showing everything from an 8-point Trump lead to a 4-point Harris edge, but on average Trump is still leading.
I'd be curious as to how you define a "decisive" Trump victory. That, depending on how you define it, I don't see in the cards. I think his most likely path to victory is an EC win without even winning the popular vote as in 2016. IMHO, with his ceiling as low as it is, him winning the popular vote would be "decisive."
Anyway, Nate Silver says he won't turn his model back on until next week week. We'll know more then.
> If she wants to win she'll go center,
I think you're right about this too. Except on Roe. I've read some fascinating analysis recently about how she talks to abortion versus how Biden speaks to it. Biden was always limited because he had to caveat things with his Catholic beliefs. Kamala speaks directly to it in a different way.
If I were a democratic strategist, I'd have Kamala focus on two things, exhaustively:
1. Trump's record (criminal and presidential) and fitness for office
2. Abortion rights
On other issues, I'd expect her to track more moderately. I'd expect her to tout her record as tough on crime, even though it's serious liability for her with the far left of the party. I'd be shocked if she ever once mentions reparations or outlawing private insurance.
Cal Norton, jr (Talledega Nights)
Skidumb’s hero….
> Example: student loan forgiveness is nothing more than a blatant misuse of taxpayer money to buy votes. I look at it as a crime.
I agree with the first statement. I don't think it's crime, I think this shit happens all the time. Farm subsidies buy votes. Cutting corporate taxes buys votes (and donors). Infrastructure projects buy votes.
> As far as Donald Trump? I have hated the motherfucker since 1989.
Why does it feel like you are always riding to his defense then?
My reanimate comment was inspired by macrodong's comment regarding seeing comments that biden is already dead, and i did add a Lol after my comment as a hint of it's humor.
Contrary to what might be popular belief I don't watch fox news, listen to or watch right wing bloggers etc. but every once in awhile, like maybe once every month or two or three i run into a link where the bane of liberals, tucker carlson, says something and i read or watch it but i'm not a follower.
I mainly get my news by watching local Cleveland tv news, over 90% of it leftist, and read newspapers online, again over 90% left leaning and other random news articles online. BTW my home page and news feed is MSN microsoft edge which is the opposite of right wing and i go by my life experiences and observations of reading between the lines and just going by what i actually see and hear, not what they tell me. Life experience, my own observations, and personal insight tells me when they appear to be telling the truth or lying.
Now I hate getting into back and forth debating and trying to change others' minds so I'm going back to not responding.
I defend America against progressives who I do not consider to be Americans. If that means supporting Trump in on-line forums so be it. I don't want to have a stroke (voting Trump), but I will choose it over dying of cancer (K. Harris). Just the way it is .
I do respect your opinion and enjoy the repartee. So very unlike Mateswithanimals27 times, who is just a cunt.
> This time after watching 8 years of unfounded persecution against him by the left
It's odd to me that you see it this way, even as you've acknowledged some of his flaws.
His documents case has been thrown out (as has Biden's). He was found guilty in the hush money case, but he was on tape admitting to it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g8zrXaok…. If you followed that case, the evidence was pretty overwhelming. What part of that felt like persecution to you?
And his case in Georgia remains to be litigated, largely do the the delay tactics his team has employed. But to me, that's the most important of all the cases he faces: in that case the prosecution will attempt to prove he tried to steal the last presidential election by pressuring officials and attempting to install fake electors. And in that case, he's also on tape: https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/03/politics/…. What specific parts of that case feel like persecution?
That leaves the Election Subversion case in federal court. IMHO, the second most important case. In that case prosecutors weighed but avoided charging Trump with public insurrection, even though on that day he told his audience to "fight like hell" and that "we're never going to take back our country with weakness, you have to show strength", precipitating the Jan 6th riot. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5Qe4h7K….
It feels to me like prosecutorial negligence not to have indicted Trump on public insurrection. But with that said, I think the paperwork coup: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv… is just as serious as a crime, and deserves to be prosecuted. What part of that case is politically motivated in your opinion?
I think there's a few other cases I haven't mentioned, the full list is here: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv….
What I'm fundamentally asking I guess is, which specific cases amount to "leftist persecution"? It's easy to paint with a broad brush, but each of these cases has tons of evidence, often Trump's own words as evidence.
From my chair, I'm angered that the wheels of justice turn so slowly. I think voters deserved verdicts in all these cases before making a decision in November, or even before Republicans held their primaries. And I think the courts, including SCOTUS (whose July 1st ruling delays several of these cases until 2025) have failed the American people by letting these wheels grind so slowly.
Yes, she's an underdog at this moment. Yes, she's a fresh face. Yes, there's a lot left to be played. But things could break the other direction too. Bad economic readings. More dirt on her that isn't baked into her polls. An unexpectedly contentious nominating process.
I think you're underestimating Trump out of your own disgust with him. Like other liberal commentators have said, they aren't learning because it contradicts their worldview to think anything out of Trump’s mouth is meaningful or worthwhile. By decisive win I mean 3 points in the popular vote and 325ish in the electoral. Biden's debate performance moved the race 2 points in Trump's direction, so there's a mass of swing voters out there.
I agree that abortion is the single best issue for the Democrats. I think it's what singlehandedly drove their 2022 outperformance. But with a lot of crazy candidates on state ballots, many outright promising 6 week abortion bans, it won't be a much of a hit. Trump is shrewdly distancing himself from having nominated 3 pro life justices. "It's in the states" is constitutionally correct, and most Americans withdraw their support for elective abortion after the first trimester. I don't see the daylight between Biden and Harris on the issue. She might turn out more women but girl power didn't put Hillary over the top.
If you have a link as to why she's more compelling than Biden on abortion, I'm interested to see that.
The other 3 issues represent serious hazards. She's on the record on reparations and healthcare, and the Trump campaign can play those back ad infinitum. She'll be forced to either explicitly disavow this or piss off the left. On criminal justice, tough on crime equals putting young black men in jail on weed charges. She can't thread the needle between being "law and order" or "woke." And getting her staff to contribute to the rioter bail fund speaks to "woke." Even if she turns towards the center, she'll have to contend with her past. Can't have it both ways.
In the end you're suggesting the same playbook as they've already run. Orange Man Bad and abortion. That's what makes the most progressive quintile of the Democratic party cum in their pants, but the swing voter doesn't care about.
If I were the Harris campaign I'd run a relentlessly future focused campaign focused on this is what I will do for the American people. Stop expressing contempt for the white working class. Stop making the Democrats the party of Karens. Outline several bills on the economy. I'd make more hay out of capping insulin copays than Trump will be a dictator (he wasn't in his first term). She has a chance to take a different course than Biden. She shouldn't squander it.
AFAICT he endorsed Kamala, touted his record, thanked people for supporting him, and talked foreign policy. This is the tape: https://www.msnbc.com/deadline-white-hou…
Pretty much the same thing Joe Biden has been saying since before he dropped out. What part of that would someone want to fake?
This is all going to be moot in about an hour or two, when Biden is scheduled to speak from the White House.
Haha, Trump's was thrown out because of improper prosecution procedures. Biden's was thrown out because he's a senile old man. How do you compare those two cases?
@puddy:
> If you have a link as to why she's more compelling than Biden on abortion, I'm interested to see that.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/20…
> I agree that abortion is the single best issue for the Democrats. I think it's what single-handedly drove their 2022 outperformance.
Yep. For the record, there's 11 states in the country where abortion will literally be on the ballot in 2024: https://www.kff.org/womens-health-policy…
Importantly, that list includes swing states of NV, AZ, and PA. And there's also Florida. If Florida goes blue because abortion is on the ballot, Trump is toast in the EC.
And expect still for the issue to motivate voters in swing states without abortion ballot initiatives. Dems will be running on this issue in all 50 states.
> Trump is shrewdly distancing himself from having nominated 3 pro life justices.
I think he needs to do this but I doubt it will be effective, especially for any pro-choice voters. Roe would be intact but for his appointments.
> But with a lot of crazy candidates on state ballots, many outright promising 6 week abortion bans, it won't be a much of a hit.
We'll see. I haven't been following a lot of state and local races, there's so many going on this election. But from what I've seen there's definitely some crazies running.
Harris abortion article is paywalled.
Yeah that's 3 states but only 3, and Trump is in the lead in all of them. Florida is a pipe dream, no use speculating. If Trump was out there touting those 3 justices, he wouldn't be ahead on the polls. They're going to flog it but it's 2 more years in the rear view mirror.
Being an ex Catholic I know plenty of crazy pro life activists. They're willing to make the Republicans the minority for a generation in order to ban abortion for a day. Trump could have a Sister Souljah moment if he stood up to them.
Trump hasn't put the likes of Herschel Walker, Mehmet Oz, and Kari Lake on ballots. Their Senate candidates might be a bit more populist like the guy in Ohio but they're sane.
Yeah but Kamala has only been wielding the Roe cannon for a day. We'll see if those leads hold. She was in NC today and abortion was definitely a topic, check out this bit from 5:00-5:30ish: https://youtu.be/Y3O75ZfcBOg?si=qXXrrO8z…
I think we'll see some movement in the polls.
> Trump hasn't put the likes of Herschel Walker, Mehmet Oz, and Kari Lake on ballots.
I don't believe shes been nominated yet, but Kari Lake will be on the ballot. She'll be running against Ruben Gallego for AZ Senate.
https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten?ref_…
I can't figure out the source of your +12 poll from the link, it just goes to Harry Enten's home page for me and he's currently posting about cats.
But if we're going to cherry pick polls, let's look at this one from Reuters/Ipsos: https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/file…
It's the most recent national poll with N>1,000, post Biden drop out. And it shows Kamala leading among all, registered and independent voters.
Still I think it's too early to look at polls. I will hold my breath on Nate Silver turning his model back on next week.
I am interested in a couple of other tea leaves though:
Massive surge in new voter registration post Biden drop out: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/47…. (Part of that was driven by Taylor Swift.)
Single biggest fundraising 24 hour period for any party ever: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/47…
I am no expert on the spectrum of voters on either side. I suppose some small % of Dems could buy into this latest right wing crock that a few prominent Dems ganged up on Biden and essentially forced his decision. But look at the long list of people who spoke up following the debate: 32 House members, 5 Senators, various celebrities and media outlets. Are we supposed to believe Obama and Pelosi orchestrated all that ? Puhleez. Further, it was all done with great respect to Biden, acknowledging his tremendous career of service. Biden will continue to reinforce his support for Harris and the importance of this election with the same message he gave tonight, right up to election day. Anyone still thinking Biden got shafted is going to hear Biden's message many times. Very hard to envision any scenario where a significant number of these voters still stay at home and don't vote, at the risk of electing Trump. It would be a complete contradiction to the outcome they know Biden cares deeply about.
@RD the Republicans are doing their own version of the good soldier act, look at all of these folks that spoke out against Trump falling in line, even wearing Trump’s trademark oversized jacket along with a too long red tie and red MAGA hat.
Uh, Trump’s ahead, dude.
"They are lamenting the record breaking fundraising, all the new voter registrations, and the week full of dominating the headlines almost exclusively."
Today the party tomorrow the hangover. Initial enthusiasm always fades.
Sorry buddy I was a fan of Ronald Reagan, and Donald J. Trump isn’t half the man Ronald Reagan was.
https://www.socratic-method.com/quote-me…
You live by Mark Twains quote of speaking and removing all doubt that you are a fool, PT Barnums actual quote of a sucker born every minute, and the second half of Abe's quote you're a person fooled all of the time. You are so fucking dumb it makes me physically ill. You are everything wrong with liberals today!
Don't cross swords with me. You always lose.
You are spending your retirement as my cockholster. How did that make you feel?
I know you've been PMing members asking for their help attacking me, and they turned you down. Trying to drag third parties into a stupid little online flame war? They are the ones who named you "small-dick energy".
You are such a pathetic old loser.
All you ever do is look for a fight, since you’ve been here you’ve made comments about my service record, my children my deceased spouse. If you don’t like my opinions I don’t care not one bit, and one thing I know for sure is that you’d never say out loud any of this nonsense you keep spouting off to my face because when it comes to being a cowardly cunt, you are the most cowardly cunt on this board. That’s a well known fact and you’ve proven that and continue to remind everyone here how little of a person you really are.
You are the most combative and disagreeable poster on this board
You attack me for being a college grad and not enlisting
You've attacked my parents and my wife
You insult everyone who disagrees with you even your buddies like Skibum
You've already threatened to charge assault & battery with senior kicker if I ever did catch you in person
Everyone sees you for the small dick loser you are. Are you mad because you peaked in 1961? As I told you, it was the people you tried to recruit who labeled you tiny dick syndrome and snubbed you!
The best thing you can do for yourself and this board is to shut the fuck up and let it go. Learn to disagree without being disagreeable. Attack political arguments with facts and data. Do not misname Ulaanbaatar, misframe the Budapest Memorandum, misquote Abe Lincoln and PT Barnum, promulgated lies and fake news, or misrepresent your elderly social justice warrior liberal democrat self as any thing else.
You love to quote Mark Twain on being mute and thought a fool than speaking and removing all doubt, but that is you every damn day! How can you not see this? I happily call you out on it all the time, so I know you do. Just learn to settle down and have good time here. Better yet, log off and touch grass.
Adios loser
You should bid me Adios. Ignore me, cease posting to my threads, cease attacking me on other threads, and I will reciprocate. You will be free to post bullshit about anyone but me. Or don't, and I will continue to call out your bullshit every time. The choice is yours.