Biden isn't going anywhere - July 12, 2024

rickdugan
Verified and Certifiable Super-Reviewer
I am putting this prediction on record. Biden is not going anywhere and all the teeth gnashing and other melodramatics in the world aren't going to change that.

I've been saying this throughout this process, but a handful of you have been clutching on to wishful thinking and the absurd noise in the press. Clearly those of you who have insisted on believing that he would step down, despite his continued insistence that he would not, do not understand the dynamics of power and human nature. Once a man tastes the sheer power and glory of the Presidency, he inevitably wants to keep it. Or in Trump's case, reclaim it.

He has the pledged delegates and few if any are going to defect (which would be political suicide), so nobody can make him go. This is especially true since his press conference last night, where he put to bed the notions that he was just a vegetable requiring protection from direct questioning.

It would seem that the press is finally starting to embrace this reality. For the past two weeks, all the major news sites have been flooded with endless negative Biden articles and editorials. After last night, it has slowed down to a trickle. By the beginning of next week, I suspect that most of them will finish switching gears and return to attacks on Trump.

So Dems, at this point, the only thing left for you to do is stand by your man.

169 comments

Latest

  • gSteph
    4 months ago
    You may be right.

    But I hope you're not.
  • Puddy Tat
    4 months ago
    Damaged or not, Biden is still the most powerful man in the Democratic party, and his inner circle (especially Hunter and Jill), want him to run. He might have dementia but politicians have long memories for people who cross them.

    Unless the Clintons slip cyanide into his ice cream, he runs or splits the party.

    They have no good options.
  • RonJax2
    4 months ago
    I will vote for Biden's head in a glass jar if it comes to that. The threat that Trump poses to our republic is just too severe to even stomach the thought of a second term. This time, unlike his first term where at least appointed some competent administrators to his cabinet, he'll surround himself with extremists who will do real and lasting damage to our republic.

    To answer your question: I think Biden will not step down, even though I think he should.

    Interestingly, betting markets right now (like predictit) have Kamala at higher odds of winning the Dem nomination, and the presidency than Biden. I think a savvy gambler would be dumping some money into the Biden right now, because even though I want him to step down, I don't think he's getting out.
  • londonguy
    4 months ago
    Question for y’all. Is there anything the party can do to stop him running, are there any mechanisms that don’t involve bumping him off?

    If his family had any sense they’d put a stop to him running. Perhaps his wife is too much in love with being First Lady to give it up without a fight.
  • twentyfive
    4 months ago
    ^ not really the primaries have pretty much made it his choice
  • RonJax2
    4 months ago
    @londonguy

    > Is there anything the party can do to stop him running, are there any mechanisms that don’t involve bumping him off?

    In short, nope. Biden has already won enough pledged delegates in the primaries. Pledge delegates are legally bound to vote for him in the convention.

    There's an interesting history here. It used to be that the majority of delegates to the Dem convention were "super delegates" - party leaders, members of congress, governors, etc. There were enough super delegates that the party leadership could have override the will of the primary voters, if necessary.

    In 2016 during Bernie Sanders' first run at the Dem nomination, most super delegates overwhelmingly favored Clinton. She beat Bernie fair and square in the primaries, but nonetheless, the Sanders camp was raised a big ruckus about the undemocratic nature of super delegates. In 2018, the party acceded to the Sanders camp complaints and removed super-delegates from the process, unless it becomes a contested convention.

    So that leaves us with only two off ramps: either Biden dies, he willingly steps down (forcing a contested convention where super delegates decide), or if neither of those happen, he'll be the nominee.
  • rickdugan
    4 months ago
    Ron, in all fairness to Bernie, he had a point. The "super delegates" all lined up for Clinton so early in the primaries that it made his bid look hopeless from the start. He understandably argued that this may have discouraged and/or suppressed primary support for his campaign.

    Now the super delegates only get a vote if the nominee is not selected in the first round of voting. Obviously this won't make it to round 2 given Biden's pledged delegates.
  • Mate27
    4 months ago
    All this hype asking if Biden is fit to run, is working because we all need to be asking the same thing about Trump. I’m not convinced his faculties have faded considerably since he left office in Jan of 2021. The January 6th events confirm to me he’s (trump) not fit for office either.

    Seeing all these democrats in congress calling for Biden to step down are only doing it for one thing, they’re in a competitive race and want to garner some recognition to get votes, especially in swing states to draw independents. Once it becomes clear they’re sticking with Biden then all democrats will fall in line lock step.
  • Hank Moody
    4 months ago
    I’ll take the other side. I’m probably drinking Kool Aid but the momentum to push him to step down is building. He may not go and the dems may just destroy themselves in the down ballot elections as well, but I’m hopeful they run him out. England just managed an election in two months. France did it in a month, with two rounds of voting no less. It’s unprecedented here, but if the dems can get their heads out of their collective asses they could give us a real alternative to Trump. Yes we can?
  • rickdugan
    4 months ago
    @Hank: And how exactly are they going to "push" him? He has the pledged delegates. He's also sitting on a $220 million war chest and will inevitably raise more. He also gets all the free press he can handle by virtue of his role as sitting President.

    So who has the leverage to push him in any direction other than his own? A handful of Congressmen? A few actors? A few editorial boards? The answer is: None of them. He holds all the cards.
  • whodey
    4 months ago
    "Is there anything the party can do to stop him running, are there any mechanisms that don’t involve bumping him off?" Technically yes, but in reality no.

    The Democratic Party rules for delegates say that “All delegates to the National Convention pledged to a presidential candidate shall in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them." In theory this would provide a loophole for delegates to decide that they can't "in good conscience" vote for Biden because of his mental state. There are a few state that legally require delegates to vote for the candidate that won the party primary, but there are enough states that don't legally require it that it could work. However, since the delegates are selected by the Biden campaign, the chances of more than a small percentage turning against him are slim to none.

    Another possible, but unlikely, route would be to change the party rules to either allow the delegates to change their votes or to reinstate the "super delegates" that they previously used. Given how much time and effort the Democrats have put into calling Trump a "threat to democracy," I can't imagine that they would choose to change their part rules to ignore tens of millions of votes.

    The most likely scenario wouldn't technically remove him as the nominee, but it would give him a strong enough shove towards the door to basically force him to withdraw. The DNC Chair and the heads of the various Political Action Committes that are funding his campaign can meet with Pres. Biden and tell him they are cutting off their financial support. They would then use their massive financial support towards supporting senate and house candidates to try to hold onto control of the senate and retake the house in November in an effort to keep Trump from passing any legislation. The DNC could also get basically all of the surrogates that are campaigning for Biden to stop holding any events for him. Even in his current mental state Biden would realize their is no chance to win and likely drop out if that happened.
  • RonJax2
    4 months ago
    > Ron, in all fairness to Bernie, he had a point. The "super delegates" all lined up for Clinton so early in the primaries that it made his bid look hopeless from the start.

    @rick, I get it. I'm definitely not at all a Sanders fan, but at the time it seemed to me those changes were right.

    But now, I wish the party had those super delegates, because I don't think old Joe is going to step down on his own. I do wonder though if a call from Obama might tip the scale for him.
  • Hank Moody
    4 months ago
    @Rick - I meant push him to make the decision to withdraw. They can’t make him. There are mega donors already withholding funds at the risk he’ll stay in and they’ll take down their own ticket. It’s a high stakes game of chicken. Would he listen to the Obamas Clintons and Pelosi if they advised him? Maybe. But it’s his call. I didn’t say otherwise.
  • dickdecker
    4 months ago
    You voting for the party and their idea’s not necessarily the man. I don’t like Repub’s. They are for old rich white christian people and fuck
    The rest of the people.
  • rickmacrodong
    4 months ago
    Florida is a red state- everyone should vote with their state and not be the odd one out. Michigan will probably go to Trump thanks to Bidens horrible treatment of the Palestinians whereas Trumps daughter married a Lebanese guy…
  • rickmacrodong
    4 months ago
    The superior man will win the presidency- Trumps the superior man so it’s his time
  • gammanu95
    4 months ago
    The dems problem is that if Biden withdraws, they have to run Kamala. Proverbial rock and a hard place.
  • Hank Moody
    4 months ago
    I’m sticking with my original post. They are pushing him to drop out. Some combination of Obama Schumer and the key player, Pelosi, will tell him his party needs him. The asassination attempt on Trump slowed the momentum against Biden for a couple days but it’s picked back up. Schiff and Raskin are on record. It’s only Hunter and Dr. Jill who are supporting him at this point. I think the over/under is Biden withdraws by Monday. Definitely wishful thinking on my part but this crazy cycle may get crazier.
  • Puddy Tat
    4 months ago
    @Hank - I'm a Republican, but put that aside for a second as I'm just talking strategy.

    If I were a Democratic powerbroker, I'd be sucking off donors and potential candidates to provide the most golden of golden parachutes. Houses, personal servants for Doctor Doctor Doctor Doctor Jill, pardons and the finest Colombian white and Russian hookers for Cokehead Hunter.

    Joe says increasingly bizarre things every day, like referring to SecDef Lloyd Austin as "the black guy" and talking about his mom telling him to be Obama's VP because he's black. This is absolutely absurd. Parkinson's doesn't set in overnight, how could they have let this happen? I would have tried to edge him out before the campaign got serious, but the next best time to do that is now. If he didn't go, I'd rally the troops to 25th amendment him right fucking now. Give Kamala at least 3.5 months of incumbency.

    I don't like her chances much better against Trump. She's not an electoral draw and Trump can absolutely hammer her over the border, but at least she isn't going to completely faceplant in a debate, and unlikely to contract dementia in the next 4 years.

    Anyone else is going to have their weaknesses--I see Democrats trying to talk themselves into Newsom and Whitmer--but if they don't coalesce around someone and fast, the Trump Train is going to be unstoppable.
  • rickdugan
    4 months ago
    I still maintain that he's not going anywhere.

    I also question the value of pressuring him to step down at this point. A certain % of Dem primary voters will not forgive the Party if this happens, at least in time for the upcoming election. It doesn't matter how much the Dems spin it or how gracious Biden might be in conceding, the damage will be done. Republicans will be able to keep the backstabbing disloyalty front and center during the election cycle.
  • Puddy Tat
    4 months ago
    Newsmax is saying Biden could drop out this weekend and not endorse Harris (brokered convention). Maybe Newsmax has a chaos agenda but if this is true, holy shit.
  • Hank Moody
    4 months ago
    You guys give voters too much credit. Most don’t go that deeply into strategy. They just see an old guy. Throw a ticket up there that includes Shapiro or Whitmer at the top and the trajectory completely changes.

    I think Kamala got a raw deal on the border and the vice presidency generally, but that die has already been cast. She can’t change that narrative (why impeach Mayorkas if it was Kamala’s fault). They won’t put Kamala in now. She’d be term limited in 2028. Putting her in now would be shortsighted, though that’s probably the best adjective to describe the morons who run the DNC.
  • Puddy Tat
    4 months ago
    @Hank - I don't think she'd be term limited. LBJ served the remainder of JFK's term and got re-elected, but could have ran again and chose not to. I thought the rule was you can only be elected twice.

    Whitmer and Shapiro come from hotly contested states, but the former has her handling of COVID and the latter is a Jew in a party with a virulent contingent of anti-Semites. Some talk about Beshear but he's from a local political dynasty that might not translate nationally. Maybe the race- and gender-obsessed party feels they have to choose a white man to be VP to a black woman, but wokeness is on the decline. Of those I think Shapiro might be the best shot, and gamble that the Hamas lovers will accept it, even if grudgingly.

    Harris was publicly given the border. Yeah, it's a tough situation, but the administration opened that wound. Biden could have kept Trump's measures in place, or did what he did the other week 3 years ago. It looks like what it is, a naked political calculation. But what she actually did might matter less than the fact that Republicans have a formidable advantage on that issue and Trump has the clips (and the balls) to flog her with it.
  • wld4tatas
    4 months ago
    > I think the over/under is Biden withdraws by Monday.

    Agreed.

    I am seeing Mark Kelly getting some attention now... definitely a worthy candidate.
  • gammanu95
    4 months ago
    Why do liberals think nationally unpopular politicians like Newson or Whitmer have a chance? Their records are massive failures and can be easily demonstrated to foretell doom for the nation. By all means, let's put a Newsom/Whitmer ballot out there. It would fail as horribly as the Biden/Harris or Harris/Shapiro ballot.
  • gammanu95
    4 months ago
    Mark Kelly - the zero accomplishment, fat, balding astronaut? Okay, LOL.
  • Studme53
    4 months ago
    My prediction is Biden will drop out due to “health reasons”.
    As usual with him, it’s a partial lie. He is mentally and physically diminished, but the real reason is terrible polling and the drag on other Democrat candidates.
  • ww
    4 months ago
    He’s not dropping out because there is no one else to “drop in” and expect a winning result.
  • rickdugan
    4 months ago
    From what I see posted in this and other threads here, some of you guys STILL aren't getting it, lol.

    His campaign just made that clear - yet again - just a couple of hours ago. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/19/biden-wo…

    He is not going anywhere folks and it was never a serious consideration. Nobody who tastes the sweet deference and trappings of being the most powerful man in the world is going to give it up willingly. The world hangs on his every word and action. He is surrounded by people waiting to do his bidding. He is a power broker in some of the most important decisions made and actions taken around the world. You can be absolutely certain that he has no intention of leaving all of that before he must.

    So now all he has to do is keep making it clear and keep campaigning. He has the delegates and the DNC needs to get the virtual nomination done by August 5th in order to avoid potential issues in the Ohio ballot process. Soon enough the noise will be over and the Dems will shut their whiny hypocritical mouths and grudgingly get back in line.
  • gammanu95
    4 months ago
    It's actually the whole truth. The democrat party wants Biden out because he's fucking demented. They love his policies, they love his rhetoric, but they know that his dementia secret is out and he cannot be allowed to top the ticket.

    Remember, the democrat party only cares about taking and holding power. Joe Biden has become a hindrance to that consolidation of power, and so is being forced out.
  • misterorange
    4 months ago
    @rick - Agree, but you mentioned "willingly".
    Do you think they would go so far as to take him out "unwillingly"?

    25th Amendment is very messy politically. But another Secret Service failure might get the job done. Hell, after last Saturday, it wouldn't be hard to believe their incompetence is systemic, and wasn't just a one-off?
  • misterorange
    4 months ago
    One could even argue it would be better for Biden's legacy.
  • rickdugan
    4 months ago
    ===> "Do you think they would go so far as to take him out "unwillingly"?"

    Tbh I struggle to see how. Even assuming that the VP and all of those heads of executive offices found the courage to try invoke the 25th Amendment, the President can dispute it, which would then require a 2/3 majority of both houses of Congress to enact. It would never happen, for too many reasons to easily spell out.

    So that leaves the delegates who are pledged to Biden. I doubt that trying to turn them would be much use either. They are political animals themselves. If it were you, which story would you prefer to go home with as you plan the next steps in your political career, that you: (a) stuck with the nominee who the voters elected because you felt like you didn't have a choice, or (b) decided to take matters in your own hands and completely ignored the nomination process that took place in your state?

    So no, I just don't see a realistic path to remove him against his will.
  • Studme53
    4 months ago
    He might get black mailed by his Democrat “friends” to get out. He has a lot of skeletons I’m sure. Obama, who is in fact the person who the party affords the most deference, wants him out. In reality, Obama never wanted him to run. “Joe, you don’t have to do this”
    “Yes I do - I promised my son (bullshit on top of bullshit) who died saving Audie Murphy from the Krauts.”
  • twentyfive
    4 months ago
    I agree that Biden doesn’t get removed against his will, my opinion is he will at some point recognize that he’s acting the same as Trump did, and causing his party great harm, I doubt he want to have his legacy become, guy who overstayed and caused a Republican Party takeover of all three branches I still believe it’s inevitable that he steps aside.
    Time will tell.
  • rickdugan
    4 months ago
    Yet another very clear message communicated from his campaign co-chair just a few hours ago.

    https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/19/politics/…

    This guy is going all the way.
  • misterorange
    4 months ago
    Well, he did beat Corn Pop so what the hell. Might as well go for it.

    Maybe this could be his new campaign ad:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-quyw6ys…
  • Studme53
    4 months ago
    He’s such a blowhard. The volume he uses on that Cornpop story is ridiculous.
    He told a story at some recent NAACP meeting about someone black he knew when he was young named “Mouse”. Why? Does he think black people hear him and think “He’s one of us!”?
    Really something a totally out of touch old man who’s never corrected would do.
  • gammanu95
    4 months ago
    Biden is a racist idiot and always has been. He's only gotten worse since the onset of his dementia. If any black American supports him, it is only because that black American is stuck on the democrat party plantation.

    At this point, Biden is only dropping out of the race against his will. Even if he announces on Monday that he is dropping out for health reasons, family reasons, the good of the party, duty to his nation, or anything else, we ALL know that is is not of his own choosing and against his own wishes. The time for Biden to retain dignity and do the right thing because it is the right thing to do has passed. All he can hope for now is damage control.

    Even after he drops out or even if he is voted out, I hope that the Republican congress and Trump's administration continues to investigate Joe and Hunter and reveal all of their crimes and prosecute them to the fullest extent of the law. The democrat party has to be brought to heel and be given a taste of their own medicine. There is no other way they will learn the lesson.
  • rickdugan
    4 months ago
    Wow, the noise is still continuing in the press, even as Biden has made it clear - over and over - that he's not going anywhere. The disloyalty shown by members of the Party is truly breathtaking. Do they really think that anything will be better if he actually succumbed to the pressure? The Party would be fractured, with residual Biden loyalists sitting out the general election out of protest.

    Party leadership foolishly believes that they can message their way out of it, but it's gone on too long and been too public for that to work now. Their best bet is to get behind Biden ASAP to stem the bleeding.
  • wld4tatas
    4 months ago
    Biden and camp will continue to say he's staying in the race, until he isn't. The dissent has started to reach the highest levels of the party, who along with Biden know the importance of the media, donors and voter enthusiasm all down the ticket. It's about pragmatism not just loyalty. Multiple reports now indicate a transition from "refusal" to "review"... we will see.
  • twentyfive
    4 months ago
    ^ your analysis is kind of flawed, not saying that Biden isn’t going to be the candidate nor that he will be, the whole point of having a political party is to win, that is their goal doesn’t matter whether there is a D or an R in front of the candidates name, it’s not disloyalty. The point is the parties exist to win and get their people in the most favorable position.
    I will say if they can’t convince Biden to step aside in the next few days, they will probably coalesce around Biden, and drop the whole idea, until after the election is over, and if he doesn’t get elected there will be repercussions to his legacy.
  • JamesSD
    4 months ago
    Biden isn't going anywhere because there's no consensus replacement. Rich donors want someone more corporate and Centrist, leftists want someone more left. Biden has always been a compromise candidate.

    It's not gonna be Kamala, and Gavin seems to be focused on 2028.
  • rickmacrodong
    4 months ago
    Like biden himself admitted weeks back, he might not be able to walk like he used to… he might not be able to talk and debate like he used to… but he speaks the damn truth. And thats what matters
  • Puddy Tat
    4 months ago
    ^ lol like he inherited 9% inflation? That's media spin. Trump lies, Biden just forgets or exaggerates or gets carried away. Well meaning old man with a poor memory, minus the well meaning.

    Guess what else you need for the presidency. Sound judgment. Communication skills. Stamina. You should have scuttled him 2 years ago.
  • misterorange
    4 months ago
    The old fuck just said he's stepping aside.
  • Hank Moody
    4 months ago
    I said Monday and missed it by a day. Shit is crazy. If Whitmer is on the ticket I’m in.
  • Book Guy
    4 months ago
    Logged in just to be the first to point out Biden's withdrawal, but two of you got here before me. Anybody want to travel with me to Chicago? Shit's gonna be interesting!

    What are the clubs like in Chicago? I used to live there in the 80s, but hadn't taken the pill yet ...
  • ww
    4 months ago
    Nobody comes to Chicago for the stripclubs
  • Hank Moody
    4 months ago
    If Whitmer or Shapiro is on the ticket and says we need to fix the border, maybe we get a centrist.
  • twentyfive
    4 months ago
    Guess I called it Rick
  • motorhead
    4 months ago
    Rick just lost his TUSCL card.
  • twentyfive
    4 months ago
    ^ 👍
  • Book Guy
    4 months ago
    @ww yeah I glanced thru the reviews you're right, "Nobody comes to Chicago for the stripclubs". LOL. What's the closest driving destination with good clubs? It can't be that you have to go all the way to Inkster / Detroit, can it?
  • rickmacrodong
    4 months ago
    Biden stepped down… i hope anyone claiming he would never stop down, admit they judged wrong and were incorrect
  • rickdugan
    4 months ago
    I'm man enough to admit that I was wrong.

    But tbh I also think that the Dems made a terrible mistake by going this route. It doesn't matter how gracious Biden is about this, the reality is that they ganged up on him and pressured him out and everyone knows it. Loyalty may mean little to the hysterical ankle biting brand of Democrat found in many large coastal cities, but it still means a lot in places like the heartland and parts of the south. IMO this is going to come back to haunt them in November.
  • wld4tatas
    4 months ago
    It wasn't a sure thing, but the tea leaves were flashing strong signals. Rickdugan you didn't see them but that's OK.

    It might look like "ganging up", but the more honest characterization is that a wide spectrum on the left spoke up out of concern for their party, the election and the country. Saying they were disloyal seems like another cheap swipe to make Dems look bad. If you think some loyal Biden supporters will now seem betrayed and be an obstacle to the party uniting around a new leader, I am certain you will again be proven wrong.
  • gammanu95
    4 months ago
    What did I say? When Joe drops out, they have to run with Harris.
    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-el…

    What else did I say? State ballot laws prevent Joe from just dropping out.
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/…

    Man, I'm tired of being right.
  • misterorange
    4 months ago
    "a wide spectrum on the left spoke up out of concern for their party, the election and the country."

    @wld4
    You nailed it (if you just scratch off the last three words).

    And yes, the Dems will unite around a new candidate. ANY candidate. Because they don't know the definition of loyalty (or honor, or shame, for that matter.)
  • motorhead
    4 months ago
    For 4 years all we have heard in the media was that Trump is a threat to Democracy.

    How is the power play by the Obama/Pelosi/Shumer/Hollywood elites disenfranchising the Democratic voters not a threat to Democracy?
  • misterorange
    4 months ago
    @motorhead - The Dem party leaders are no longer a "threat" to democracy. They've already followed through on the threat.
  • skibum609
    4 months ago
    Kamala Harris would be the epitome of the affirmative action appointee.
  • RonJax2
    4 months ago
    ^ Wow, it's going to suck when your senile old candidate loses to her then, isn't it.
  • funonthaside
    4 months ago
    It will suck for us all, with respect to finances and safety.
  • RonJax2
    4 months ago
    Yes, we'll have to deal with continued decreasing crime, a booming stock market, and the sustained economic growth we've enjoyed under the Biden administration.

    As far as my finances go, I'm most concerned about the Trump-Vance plan to devalue the dollar, which would be hugely deflationary and devastate my own finances (as it would for most of the middle class.) https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/16/us/po…
  • Hank Moody
    4 months ago
    It’s literally not disenfranchisement because he withdrew. If you want to make the argument that he was pushed, you know from our resident political expert that he couldn’t legally be pushed if he didn’t want to go. There was no real primary. Does anyone remember Dean Philips other than his mom? I think I heard only 14 million people voted for Biden in the primaries but that’s just a random memory. Not a true sampling of primary voters. Probably the biggest fact here is that polling has been telling us for two years that people wanted a different choice. Would’ve been great if Biden pulled out a year ago, but here we are. Better late than never.
  • Puddy Tat
    4 months ago
    "Does anyone remember Dean Philips other than his mom?"

    You come at the king, you better not miss.
  • Mate27
    4 months ago
    RonJax, I’m sure you meant devaluing the dollar would be inflatuonary, rather than deflationary. Trump would most certainly create problems just in time to run away from them, and lie and grift his issues onto someone else(the american people).

    almost all respected economists agree his policies comtributed to the recent run up inflation, yet the laggimg affecta occured during Biden's time in office. To be fair, politicians lobe to spend $$ and Biden's inflation reductiom act added the same amount to our total debt adding fuel
    to the fire of inflation. Higher taxes on all of us are coming to pay to service this massive debt, and trump thinks we can simply default on it(SMH).
  • skibum609
    4 months ago
    Boomin stock market lol. Biggest bubble in history fueling inflation and killing the people Democrats pretend to support.
  • RonJax2
    4 months ago
    @Mate27

    > RonJax, I’m sure you meant devaluing the dollar would be inflatuonary, rather than deflationary.

    YES, thank you for the correction. I typed the wrong thing, devaluing the dollar would indeed be deflationary. So would the GOP's proposed mass deportation program. Not to mention the human rights disaster it would cause, and the heartache it would cause on TUSCL when all of our favorite Cubana dancers are disappeared into the night.

    > To be fair, politicians lobe to spend $$ and Biden's inflation reductiom act added the same amount to our total debt adding fuel to the fire of inflation.

    The inflation reduction act reduced the deficit by $238 billion. https://www.crfb.org/blogs/cbo-scores-ir…

    In the scheme of the trillions of dollars spent during the pandemic (mostly under Trump) it's a drop in the bucket. But it's better than nothing.

    If we don't want to default on our debt or pay higher taxes (and I certainly don't want either of those things) someone is going to need to touch the 3rd rail of politics here and start cutting entitlements.
  • gammanu95
    4 months ago
    @Moody Hack - he was pushed to withdraw, which does disenfranchise those who voted for him in the primaries, as well as his pledged loyalist delegates.

    The democrat party has never cared about laws which inhibit their power grabs and narratives. If they cannot change them, they break them. 2020 is a prime example. I am hoping that Speaker Johnson and the current Republican leaders follow through on their vow to fight back and stop them.
  • RonJax2
    4 months ago
    ^ Dammit and I typed it wrong twice now. DEVALUING THE DOLLAR WOULD BE INFLATIONARY is what I meant.
  • rickmacrodong
    4 months ago
    Yeah whether Trump or someone else, im hoping they don’t restrict Cubans or Colombians from coming in- or at least let the women come through. Even from the middle eastern countries- at least let the women come through. Legalize prostitution on top of it so the government can tax their income and make a ton of money. Imagine how many customers these immigrant women would have with fully legalized prostitution to the point you can solicit anyone in public places
  • motorhead
    4 months ago
    Hank,

    How is it not disenfranchisement?

    Can you only imagine if Trump’s team said “there’s no path to victory unless we wipe out every primary vote from a black voter?”

    This is the same thing. The true power brokers of the Democratic Party determined that Biden cannot win so they just threw every primary vote into the trash heap so they can select another candidate (one the voters did not chose)
  • twentyfive
    4 months ago
    MAGA World has lost their collective minds, to the realization that what they thought would be an electoral landslide,? is about to become their fourth consecutive election loss.
    I don’t think they’ll (MAGA) recover from this, and the Republican Party Leadership will recalculate their position and get back to some semblance of normality.
    It’s about time.
  • skibum609
    4 months ago
    ^Try reading some of the stupid polls you lefties love which show Harris behind in every swing state. Semblance of normalcy? For fucktards, but we have a president too demented to run again and not one Democrat thinks he shouldn't be in charge of the country. Orwell knew that nazis were socialists and saw socialist Democrats coming when he wrote 1948. Democrats saving our democracy by cheating the voters.
  • wld4tatas
    4 months ago
    Nice tweet from Republican Mike Pence on Biden stepping down:

    President Joe Biden made the right decision for our country and I thank him for putting the interests of our Nation ahead of his own....
    https://x.com/Mike_Pence/status/18153883…
  • Hank Moody
    4 months ago
    @motorhead

    Not sure why you had to create a hypothetical with black votes. Does that make it more inflammatory? It still doesn’t work.

    14 million people voted for a guy who dropped out of the race. Are you saying Dean Philips should be the nominee? That Biden should be forced to run? Republicans and Dems don’t agree on much, but 80% 90%? of the country thought Biden should with. Now he does, and you’re saying it’s the wrong thing to do? You’re in a tiny minority.
  • Hank Moody
    4 months ago
    Should withDRAW

    Bring back the edit button!
  • Mate27
    3 months ago
    Omg, skidumb is so old he thought George Orwell titles his book after WWII instead of 1984. Lmfao! His only characteristic in common with the two guys that were running for President, old (and senile)!
  • gammanu95
    3 months ago
    @Moody Hack - quit making up numbers. The high tide of Americans wanting Biden to drop out was 67%. Also, 34% of democrat party useful idiots wanted him to stay in. We can guarantee that that same 34% voted for him in the primaries. That means that 34% of the democrat party primary voters have been disenfranchised, along with whatever liberal RINOs like yourself may have voted for him in an open primary state.

    Facts.
  • twentyfive
    3 months ago
    ^ you don’t know what disenfranchised means, dumb fucking idiot
    Read the rules of both political parties and you’ll understand that primaries are non binding, if they’re nonbinding they can’t disenfranchise anyone
  • gammanu95
    3 months ago
    ^Small dick energy. Get a life, old man. Touch grass.
  • twentyfive
    3 months ago
    ^ as opposed to an idiot that uses words he doesn’t understand, I guess you’re no dick energy, loser.
  • skibum609
    3 months ago
    MATESwithlittelboys27 times is about as fucking stupid as an animal could be. Orwell wrote the fucking book in 1948 stupid: right after WW2. The last 2 numbers are reversed, hence the title: 1984. Do the world a favor and kill yourself loser.
  • gammanu95
    3 months ago
    Orwell's predictions for thought crimes and think police in 1984 were stunningly prescient. The democrat party of the United States of America has adopted woke ideologues as their Big Brother and the cult of wokeness as their personality. They now claim the mantle of centrists, republicans, conservatives, but it is not true. They are leftist zealots who are afraid of dissenting thought, personal responsibility, and individual agency.
  • twentyfive
    3 months ago
    ^ It’s amazing and amusing how you opine on things that you have less than zero knowledge, I’d bet you’ve never read either book, 1984 or Animal Farm, but go on keep bloviating.
    Remember it’s better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool, then to open your mouth and remove all doubt.
  • gammanu95
    3 months ago
    ^It's amazing and amusing how your entire one-man feud revolves around attacking me personally and never addressing my opinions and arguments. This is your small dick energy. This is you following my big swinging dick with jealousy and rage. You respond to anything and everything I post with the same weak, thoughtless, drivel. I own you, mind and soul, and I don't hang onto things which have no value. Go away, now.
  • rickdugan
    3 months ago
    ===> "If you think some loyal Biden supporters will now seem betrayed and be an obstacle to the party uniting around a new leader, I am certain you will again be proven wrong."

    @wld4tatas: I'm willing to be wrong here too, but I don't think I will be. 14 million primary voters came out to select him as their nominee. To see him treated like that will inevitably piss some % of them off, which is why I couldn't believe that they would go so far so publicly that he would feel forced to step down. IMO this will definitely come home to roost in the Dem voter turnout.

    Now my guess is that Obama, Pelosi & Co. understand this, but believe that the alternative is even worse. Time will tell but IMO they shot themselves in the foot on this one by under-estimating how the loyalty factor will play into the thinking of some Dems, especially older ones in more centrist swing states.
  • Hank Moody
    3 months ago
    Biden was going to lose. Kamala has a shot, and probably has a better shot of not pulling down the congressional races as Biden would’ve. But you’re right, we’ll know once we see the election turnout. As in 2020, Trump is a massive turnout driver. On both sides.
  • gammanu95
    3 months ago
    The media coverage of Kamala's pep rally yesterday has been repulsively fawning. PMSNBC ladyboys were talking about getting butterflies in their stomachs while she spoke. It reminded me very, very much of Obama's fellating media coverage to become the "anointed one" candidate, even as Hillary had spent 2-3 years as heir apparent for the 2008 DNC nom. I expect, particularly given how abysmal her professional performance has been, that her ads will highlight her personal diversity and attack Trump. They have literally nothing else with this woman, just as Obama had no professional achievements to speak of.
  • rickdugan
    3 months ago
    @wld4tatas: Just to add, not all of the Dems out there fit the profile of those you are routinely surrounded by in NJ, many of whom sadly have little loyalty to, or belief in, anything but themselves. Dems in places like western PA, OH and WI, by way of a few examples, are a different breed. The tend to be older and much more centrist. Some of them are most definitely going to believe that Ol' Scranton Joe got shafted and be pissed off about it. And it certainly won't salve their anger to see a far left whack job like Kamala take his place.
  • twentyfive
    3 months ago
    Gamnuts
    Tell us have you ever read 1984 or Animal Farm, you might learn something if do,
    You’re an ass not a big swinging dick grow up child you have a lot to learn
  • gammanu95
    3 months ago
    ^tell me you have a small penis without telling me you have a small penis
  • twentyfive
    3 months ago
    Tell the world your a moron without saying you are a dumbass
  • gammanu95
    3 months ago
    ^It's amazing and amusing how your entire one-man feud revolves around attacking me personally and never addressing my opinions and arguments. This is your small dick energy. This is you following my big swinging dick with jealousy and rage. You respond to anything and everything I post with the same weak, thoughtless, drivel. I own you, mind and soul, and I don't hang onto things which have no value. Go away, now.
  • twentyfive
    3 months ago
    ^ yet you respond to every single post I make whether I reference you or not, dance monkey dance
  • gammanu95
    3 months ago
    ^It's amazing and amusing how your entire one-man feud revolves around attacking me personally and never addressing my opinions and arguments. This is your small dick energy. This is you following my big swinging dick with jealousy and rage. You respond to anything and everything I post with the same weak, thoughtless, drivel. I own you, mind and soul, and I don't hang onto things which have no value. Go away, now.
  • gammanu95
    3 months ago
    No last word for you, you demented old loser
  • Mate27
    3 months ago
    Both books were mandatory reading growing up, unless you were raised under an me of those book bannings. (Cough, cough)
  • twentyfive
    3 months ago
    ^ LOL
    Goober is just a glutton for punishment ain’t he. Little fool was probably home schooled by dropouts , I’m sure he never read either of those books, ignorant as he is.
  • gammanu95
    3 months ago
    You once said you never start shit, but you've been spamming people all day. Give it a rest. You need to get a life, what little you have left.
  • rickmacrodong
    3 months ago
    @rickdugan and others some people online are saying Biden has already passed away? The phone call he had with Kamala was actually an AI Joe Biden?

    Additionally supposedly there was a microsoft outage last week and that caused an issue with their AI Joe Biden. So they wont be able to keep using AI with him and thats why they need to have someone else become president soon.
  • twentyfive
    3 months ago
    ^ LOL
    What a stupid comment , still it’s exactly what we all expect from you.
  • Studme53
    3 months ago
    Hopefully tonight will be the last time we’ll have to watch him fuck-up reading from a teleprompter.
    Hopefully he’ll step down or at least getting fitted for a muzzle and be confined to his office like he was during Obama’s second term. Btw - Obama and Biden hate each other.
  • TheeOSU
    3 months ago
    ' some people online are saying Biden has already passed away?'


    Yeah they're digging him up and reanimating him so he can talk to us one last time to follow the narrative and tell us how he's sacrificing himself and doing it for the country even though just days ago he was fighting and screaming to hold on to the job.
  • TheeOSU
    3 months ago
    And then we'll have kool aide drinkers here praise him for being such a stand up guy
    Lol
  • RonJax2
    3 months ago
    The only people drinking kool aid in this thread are the people who are going to vote for the twice impeached convicted felon and rapist who tried to overthrow our government. That group of folks meets every definition of a cult: https://www.verywellmind.com/what-is-a-c…

    I'll point out number 4 specifically from that list: Unreasonable fears about the outside world that often involve evil conspiracies and persecutions

    If you actually think Joe Biden is reanimated or an AI, review those other cult warning signs and do some introspection. Maybe do some consideration too for where you're getting your information from.

    Biden has COVID, that's why he hasn't been public. Shit I'm half his age and it took me weeks to get over COVID. And had he actually died? That probably would've been the best thing he could have done for his legacy, what would have been the point of covering that up?
  • gammanu95
    3 months ago
    twice impeached - by political rivals and the Senate voted against the charges
    convicted felon - wrongfully convicted
    rapist - Lie. never convicted of rape
    tried to overthrow our government - Lie. He had nothing to do with the rioters who were already at the Capitol while he was giving a speech
  • minnow
    3 months ago
    @ rick dugan- That is why several pundits think that Cackle-A will chose a moderate white male governor ( moderate white democrat senator/representative is an extinct species) as her VP running mate. POC presidential candidate balanced by white moderate VP pick worked for Obama in 08 and 12.

    There will always be the 30% - 35% dyed in wool party loyalists who will vote for their party's nominee even if it's Mickey Mouse. The 30% - 40% independent voters will be the key, especially in ~ 6 key swing states. This is a different landscape than 08 and 12, it ain't over till it's over.
  • RonJax2
    3 months ago
    > The 30% - 40% independent voters will be the key, especially in ~ 6 key swing states.

    @minnow my take is there is practically fucking zero undecided voters in this election. You either hate the awful things Trump has done and would never vote for him, or you don't. There are virtually no voters who haven't already formed a solid opinion on whether they prefer Trump or Kamala.

    What will change this election is turnout. There are handfuls of republican leaning voters who are squicked out by Trump, but would never vote democrat, and it's a question of whether the Trump campaign can convince these voters to come out and pull the lever for Trump.

    And there's a shit ton of apathetic voters who likely would vote democractic, but might also just stay home on election day. I think that's the key demographic that decides this election, and they decided it not by picking one candidate over the other, but by making the decision to vote or not.

    I've been saying this for months: this election will come down to turn out. If it's a low turnout election, Trump will win it, likely by winning in the electoral college without winning the popular vote as he did in 2016. If this election is a high turnout election, it's game over for team Trump.
  • Puddy Tat
    3 months ago
    "There are virtually no voters who haven't already formed a solid opinion on whether they prefer Trump or Kamala."

    Lots of liberal bias here. Trump is known, Harris less so, and where she is, she's known for the wrong things. She's not a vegetable but she's left of left, not charismatic, and represents a state that people are leaving in droves. She was far from her own party's preference last cycle.

    Take the polls. Note how Trump has outperformed in his two prior elections. Add a couple points for inherent GOP advantage in the electoral vote. What do you get? A lot of Dem wishful thinking.
  • RonJax2
    3 months ago
    > Take the polls. Note how Trump has outperformed in his two prior elections.

    No question: Trump over-performed and republican voters were grossly undersampled in the 2016 election. In fact, at the time that was a world wide trend. The right-wing showing in the Brexit election that preceded Trump's election by a few months was also a huge surprise to pollsters and prognosticators (and to Tory David Cameron, who lost his job over it.)

    But Trump did NOT over-perform in 2020. The polls were actually pretty accurate then - within a single normal polling error accurate. And in the congressional elections of 2022, the polls grossly over-sampled republican support. Prognosticators were expecting that election to be a red tsunami and instead Republicans failed to take the Senate and were left with an unmanageable narrow majority in the house.

    Another data point to throw in the mix - some recent international elections have shown that pollsters continue to underestimate leftist voters as they did in the US in 2022. I'll point to the unexpected 2-to-1 blowout for MORENA / Sheinbuam in Mexico in June and the sudden unexpected surge from the far left in France as recent examples. The French prognosticators all thought Marine Le Pen would be the next prime minister, but thanks to far left voters, Macron will hang on for another term. In both elections, pollsters completely under sampled left leaning voters, and in particular, energy from the far left.

    I'll be the first to admit that one should be careful of extrapolating international trends to US elections. But what I do feel strongly about is that you can't count on the idea that polls will under represent republicans... the opposite could certainly be true, and in fact that looks like it could be the case from the very few tea leaves we have.

    I would highly recommend subscribing to Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin if you are genuinely interested in seeing some cogent and non-partisan prognostication. He's written a lot recently about this very topic of over/under sampling.
  • skibum609
    3 months ago
    The fact Trump was impeached twice is just another reason to despise democratic party, the nazis of today, all of them socialists.
  • gammanu95
    3 months ago
    Leave it to a liberal to reference European elections to forecast the next American election. Apples and orange men. America is not a failed narcostate like Mexico. The liberals have not won yet. Nor do we have supreme leader who can throw out an election he does not like. The liberals have not won yet. We do have a disastrous influx of illegal immigrants and the liberals would love to give them a vote like the UK did. But not yet.

    I hope every liberal is as blinded by bias and hate as RonJax2 is. That will make this election so much easier and their meltdown so much more fun to watch.
  • RonJax2
    3 months ago
    @skibum do you even know what socialism is? Can you define it?

    As an ardent capitalist I am virulently opposed to socialism, which I would define as government ownership of the means of production.

    I fail to see how impeaching Trump for trying to trade favors for Ukrainian aid, or impeaching him for sending a mob to storm the capital and trying through other means to overturn the election, have anything to do with the government owning the means of production.

    I mean, even setting aside the treacherous mob of Jan 6th, this phone call between Trump and GA Sec'y of State Brad Raffensburger alone was both impeachable and disqualifying: https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/03/politics/…

  • skibum609
    3 months ago
    Roflmao at the abject hypocrisy of leftists who supported CHOP, the daily attacks on the Federal Courthouse, the George Floyd terrorists, etc. complaining about the January 6 protests. As far as your comment on defining socialism, a big lol. Progressive traitors make me chuckle.
  • RonJax2
    3 months ago
    So, you can't define socialism then? Why am I unsurprising by this?

    And I have no idea what CHOP is. And further more I'm glad that most democrats condemned the violence surrounding the George Floyd protests.

    And personally, I'm terrified of the race riots we might have under another Trump presidency. From Unite the Right in Charlottesville to the Floyd riots, Trump was at the center of all of this. Remember when Trump tear gassed a bunch of peaceful protestors so he could hold up a fucking bible in Lafeyette Square? https://www.npr.org/2020/06/01/867532070…

    I think it's unlikely that a majority of Americans will want to go back to those days.
  • skibum609
    3 months ago
    I can define socialism, but the fact you cannot and need others to explain it to you makes your opinion useless. Totally unsurprising given that you don't know what CHOP. Very uneducated, yet prolific at spewing. Life in America was better under Trump. As far as peaceful peotestors I look at the democrats supporting hamas and attacking news and that's all I need to know about them. If you're afraid of race riots and feel like bending over for the rioters and against regular people then you're the perfect progressive.
  • RonJax2
    3 months ago
    > I can define socialism, but the fact you cannot and need others to explain it to you makes your opinion useless.

    I mean, I just defined it in my previous comment? And I asked you to offer your definition which you continually refuse to do? I suspect that for you socialism is anything disagrees with dear leader's policies. But prove me wrong by offering your own cogent definition. Go on.

    > Life in America was better under Trump

    Man, I vividly remember life under Trump. The pandemic, the race riots, the bitter discord everywhere in the country. Parents separate from children. Muslims banned from entering the country. Kowtowing to foreign autocrats. He's the most divisive president we've ever had. Maybe you enjoyed the pandemic and the race riots, but not for all the tea in china would I want to relive those years.

    And yeah, I guess I'm not reading the same right-wing propaganda as you. The best I can come up with from a google search is that CHOP is a mixture of weed and tobacco smoked through a bong. So maybe you can enlighten those of us that don't speak QAnon as to what CHOP is.
  • TheeOSU
    3 months ago
    'If you actually think Joe Biden is reanimated or an AI, review those other cult warning signs and do some introspection.

    Maybe do some consideration too for where you're getting your information from.'


    ^
    Wow dude you really think I was serious!
    My first thought is you can't see a joke or have a laugh about it but then i recall you leftists don't understand humor and have a laugh because you're too wraped up over anyone that doesn't see things your way and can only stomp your feet cry and hand wring as a response.


    'If you actually think Joe Biden is reanimated or an AI, review those other cult warning signs and do some introspection. Maybe do some consideration too for where you're getting your information from.'


    ^
    No genius I don't think biden is reanimated, Lol

    And regarding cult warning signs, introspection, and consideration of where people get information from, follow your own advice as it's obvious your talking points are based off of the MSM who shout your talking points every chance they get and until recently proclaimed as fact that biden has been effective and healthy since before the previous election whereas anyone with half a brain could see him as senile and feeble, a shell of a normal man.

    I don't recall ever engaging you here in the past because I didn't feel a need to but since you directly referred to my previous comment the need arose to set things straight. Now that I've done that fire away with your rebuttals but i''m going back to not paying attention to your MSM kool aide comments.

  • Puddy Tat
    3 months ago
    @Ron - I'm not saying Republicans are undersampled...I know about the midterms and special elections, international too different...I also know about the shy Trump voter effect. Trump came within a few votes in key states in 2020 and that was with the pandemic and racial radicalism at a fever pitch.

    Look at where Trump was vs the last election cycle and he's way ahead. Harris gives democrats another chance but if it were held today I think Trump decisively wins.

    I admire Silver and last I recall he's 70/30 Trump. But I've predicted every election in my adult lifetime based on who has a stronger narrative. Maybe Harris comes up with some winning message and platform but she hasn't done that in the past. She's well left of Biden and doesn't have a track record of success. Right now the left's prevailing narrative isn't even TDS anymore, it's the race and gender cards. And she hasn't even faced the brunt of Trump yet.

    If she wants to win she'll go center, tell the left to take a hike, and break from her past of reparations, abortion up to birth, and outlawing private insurance. If she doesn't disavow those, she's going to get creamed.
  • RonJax2
    3 months ago
    > My first thought is you can't see a joke

    I guess I couldn't. It was hard to tell you were joking because the Trump world is full of ridiculous conspiracies. Something like 20% of the country literally believes he was anointed by God to take on the Democratic party which they believe is a cabal of pedophiles who drink the blood of children. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/QAnon

    Your comment on reanimated Joe seems pretty benign when compared to the shit that some Trumpsters actually believe. Note that congresswoman Lauren Boebert has demanded repeatedly on Twitter that Biden show "proof of life". https://x.com/laurenboebert/status/18154…

    > i recall you leftists don't understand humor

    I'm not a leftist. But OK.

    > your talking points are based off of the MSM

    I read a handful of reputable newspapers daily, including one conservative leaning publication. I avoid cable news except during breaking news, and I generally eschew social media with TUSCL being the obvious exception. If you consider newspapers to be part of the "mainstream media" I guess I'm guilty as charged.

    I'm curious, where do you get your own information from?
  • skibum609
    3 months ago
    I read, not every day, Wall Street Journal, Guardian, Local News, still get the Globe and Herald delivered and look at the fake news sources on liberal sites like Vox, Salon, AFP, Newsweak, and when I read an article I find suspicious I look for local news sources, which remain far more honorable and fair than the national media.

    As far as Donald Trump? I have hated the motherfucker since 1989. He will always be the typical NYC douchebag democrat friend of the Clintons he used to be in my eyes. I hated his TV show, think he'd be richer if he put his inherited 41 million into a passbook savings account and is living proof of why Ivy League schools are simply bullshit. Compared to progressives, whom I have to deal with every waking moment of my life here in the people's republic, he would be my pick if I thought it meant anything.
    I used to be active in politics and I majored in history, which I have loved since I learned to read 60+ years ago. My opinions are based on a belief that they are right, unlike other people who base their beliefs on what is best for themselves. Example: student loan forgiveness is nothing more than a blatant misuse of taxpayer money to buy votes. I look at it as a crime. Paying back student loans is tough, but I paid mine back, even though my subsidized interest rate was higher than mortgages are now. We are reaping the negatives of catering to the weak and the fucked up. I am almost 67 so I will miss the coming tragedy, but I will not pretend its not coming.
  • skibum609
    3 months ago
    I read, not every day, Wall Street Journal, Guardian, Local News, still get the Globe and Herald delivered and look at the fake news sources on liberal sites like Vox, Salon, AFP, Newsweak, and when I read an article I find suspicious I look for local news sources, which remain far more honorable and fair than the national media.

    As far as Donald Trump? I have hated the motherfucker since 1989. He will always be the typical NYC douchebag democrat friend of the Clintons he used to be in my eyes. I hated his TV show, think he'd be richer if he put his inherited 41 million into a passbook savings account and is living proof of why Ivy League schools are simply bullshit. Compared to progressives, whom I have to deal with every waking moment of my life here in the people's republic, he would be my pick if I thought it meant anything.
    I used to be active in politics and I majored in history, which I have loved since I learned to read 60+ years ago. My opinions are based on a belief that they are right, unlike other people who base their beliefs on what is best for themselves. Example: student loan forgiveness is nothing more than a blatant misuse of taxpayer money to buy votes. I look at it as a crime.
  • RonJax2
    3 months ago
    @Puddy

    > Look at where Trump was vs the last election cycle and he's way ahead. Harris gives democrats another chance but if it were held today I think Trump decisively wins.

    FWIW, I mostly agree with these statements here. Trump is in the pole position. Harris shakes things up, but she's probably an underdog *at this exact moment* . We've had some recent polls in, and they're all over the place, showing everything from an 8-point Trump lead to a 4-point Harris edge, but on average Trump is still leading.

    I'd be curious as to how you define a "decisive" Trump victory. That, depending on how you define it, I don't see in the cards. I think his most likely path to victory is an EC win without even winning the popular vote as in 2016. IMHO, with his ceiling as low as it is, him winning the popular vote would be "decisive."

    Anyway, Nate Silver says he won't turn his model back on until next week week. We'll know more then.

    > If she wants to win she'll go center,

    I think you're right about this too. Except on Roe. I've read some fascinating analysis recently about how she talks to abortion versus how Biden speaks to it. Biden was always limited because he had to caveat things with his Catholic beliefs. Kamala speaks directly to it in a different way.

    If I were a democratic strategist, I'd have Kamala focus on two things, exhaustively:
    1. Trump's record (criminal and presidential) and fitness for office
    2. Abortion rights

    On other issues, I'd expect her to track more moderately. I'd expect her to tout her record as tough on crime, even though it's serious liability for her with the far left of the party. I'd be shocked if she ever once mentions reparations or outlawing private insurance.
  • Mate27
    3 months ago
    “I’m gonna keep acting tough ‘til I figure it out!”
    Cal Norton, jr (Talledega Nights)
    Skidumb’s hero….
  • RonJax2
    3 months ago
    @skibum

    > Example: student loan forgiveness is nothing more than a blatant misuse of taxpayer money to buy votes. I look at it as a crime.

    I agree with the first statement. I don't think it's crime, I think this shit happens all the time. Farm subsidies buy votes. Cutting corporate taxes buys votes (and donors). Infrastructure projects buy votes.

    > As far as Donald Trump? I have hated the motherfucker since 1989.

    Why does it feel like you are always riding to his defense then?
  • TheeOSU
    3 months ago
    I'm going to break my vow not to respond this one time because you were respectful in your response.
    My reanimate comment was inspired by macrodong's comment regarding seeing comments that biden is already dead, and i did add a Lol after my comment as a hint of it's humor.

    Contrary to what might be popular belief I don't watch fox news, listen to or watch right wing bloggers etc. but every once in awhile, like maybe once every month or two or three i run into a link where the bane of liberals, tucker carlson, says something and i read or watch it but i'm not a follower.
    I mainly get my news by watching local Cleveland tv news, over 90% of it leftist, and read newspapers online, again over 90% left leaning and other random news articles online. BTW my home page and news feed is MSN microsoft edge which is the opposite of right wing and i go by my life experiences and observations of reading between the lines and just going by what i actually see and hear, not what they tell me. Life experience, my own observations, and personal insight tells me when they appear to be telling the truth or lying.

    Now I hate getting into back and forth debating and trying to change others' minds so I'm going back to not responding.
  • skibum609
    3 months ago
    Farm subsidies have to be passed by Congress, not given away by a President. Same with corporate tax cuts and infrastructure. Not the same thing. One is democratic, like it or not, one is despotic and tyrannical.
    I defend America against progressives who I do not consider to be Americans. If that means supporting Trump in on-line forums so be it. I don't want to have a stroke (voting Trump), but I will choose it over dying of cancer (K. Harris). Just the way it is .
    I do respect your opinion and enjoy the repartee. So very unlike Mateswithanimals27 times, who is just a cunt.
  • TheeOSU
    3 months ago
    And I'll add since ski commented regarding trump, i didn't vote for or against him either time, i'm not a fan but there's no doubt in my mind that he was a better choice than clinton and biden but i still couldn't support him and regardless of his big mouth, ego, and warts i wanted him to win both times as i saw him as the lesser of 2 evils but not enough to vote for him. This time after watching 8 years of unfounded persecution against him by the left he's again the better option, i won't vote against him and very possibly may vote for him.
  • RonJax2
    3 months ago
    @TheeOSU

    > This time after watching 8 years of unfounded persecution against him by the left

    It's odd to me that you see it this way, even as you've acknowledged some of his flaws.

    His documents case has been thrown out (as has Biden's). He was found guilty in the hush money case, but he was on tape admitting to it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g8zrXaok…. If you followed that case, the evidence was pretty overwhelming. What part of that felt like persecution to you?

    And his case in Georgia remains to be litigated, largely do the the delay tactics his team has employed. But to me, that's the most important of all the cases he faces: in that case the prosecution will attempt to prove he tried to steal the last presidential election by pressuring officials and attempting to install fake electors. And in that case, he's also on tape: https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/03/politics/…. What specific parts of that case feel like persecution?

    That leaves the Election Subversion case in federal court. IMHO, the second most important case. In that case prosecutors weighed but avoided charging Trump with public insurrection, even though on that day he told his audience to "fight like hell" and that "we're never going to take back our country with weakness, you have to show strength", precipitating the Jan 6th riot. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5Qe4h7K….

    It feels to me like prosecutorial negligence not to have indicted Trump on public insurrection. But with that said, I think the paperwork coup: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv… is just as serious as a crime, and deserves to be prosecuted. What part of that case is politically motivated in your opinion?

    I think there's a few other cases I haven't mentioned, the full list is here: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv….

    What I'm fundamentally asking I guess is, which specific cases amount to "leftist persecution"? It's easy to paint with a broad brush, but each of these cases has tons of evidence, often Trump's own words as evidence.

    From my chair, I'm angered that the wheels of justice turn so slowly. I think voters deserved verdicts in all these cases before making a decision in November, or even before Republicans held their primaries. And I think the courts, including SCOTUS (whose July 1st ruling delays several of these cases until 2025) have failed the American people by letting these wheels grind so slowly.
  • rickmacrodong
    3 months ago
    The thing is that was only a phone call. It is very possible to use AI to use someone elses voice and say nonsense things. There is an entire youtube channel, i forget the name, maybe voiceverse AI, it uses AI and makes videos of presidents former presidents saying completely ridiculous stuff. And the voice is almost 100% accurate.
  • Puddy Tat
    3 months ago
    @Ron - Trump is ahead but I don't think the start of a car race is the right analogy. Only Harris is starting from a standstill. The "race" has been going, Trump is ahead.

    Yes, she's an underdog at this moment. Yes, she's a fresh face. Yes, there's a lot left to be played. But things could break the other direction too. Bad economic readings. More dirt on her that isn't baked into her polls. An unexpectedly contentious nominating process.

    I think you're underestimating Trump out of your own disgust with him. Like other liberal commentators have said, they aren't learning because it contradicts their worldview to think anything out of Trump’s mouth is meaningful or worthwhile. By decisive win I mean 3 points in the popular vote and 325ish in the electoral. Biden's debate performance moved the race 2 points in Trump's direction, so there's a mass of swing voters out there.

    I agree that abortion is the single best issue for the Democrats. I think it's what singlehandedly drove their 2022 outperformance. But with a lot of crazy candidates on state ballots, many outright promising 6 week abortion bans, it won't be a much of a hit. Trump is shrewdly distancing himself from having nominated 3 pro life justices. "It's in the states" is constitutionally correct, and most Americans withdraw their support for elective abortion after the first trimester. I don't see the daylight between Biden and Harris on the issue. She might turn out more women but girl power didn't put Hillary over the top.

    If you have a link as to why she's more compelling than Biden on abortion, I'm interested to see that.

    The other 3 issues represent serious hazards. She's on the record on reparations and healthcare, and the Trump campaign can play those back ad infinitum. She'll be forced to either explicitly disavow this or piss off the left. On criminal justice, tough on crime equals putting young black men in jail on weed charges. She can't thread the needle between being "law and order" or "woke." And getting her staff to contribute to the rioter bail fund speaks to "woke." Even if she turns towards the center, she'll have to contend with her past. Can't have it both ways.

    In the end you're suggesting the same playbook as they've already run. Orange Man Bad and abortion. That's what makes the most progressive quintile of the Democratic party cum in their pants, but the swing voter doesn't care about.

    If I were the Harris campaign I'd run a relentlessly future focused campaign focused on this is what I will do for the American people. Stop expressing contempt for the white working class. Stop making the Democrats the party of Karens. Outline several bills on the economy. I'd make more hay out of capping insulin copays than Trump will be a dictator (he wasn't in his first term). She has a chance to take a different course than Biden. She shouldn't squander it.
  • RonJax2
    3 months ago
    ^ I totally agree it's possible. But why would it be so in this case? What would the motivation be?

    AFAICT he endorsed Kamala, touted his record, thanked people for supporting him, and talked foreign policy. This is the tape: https://www.msnbc.com/deadline-white-hou…

    Pretty much the same thing Joe Biden has been saying since before he dropped out. What part of that would someone want to fake?

    This is all going to be moot in about an hour or two, when Biden is scheduled to speak from the White House.
  • misterorange
    3 months ago
    @RonJax "His documents case has been thrown out (as has Biden's)."

    Haha, Trump's was thrown out because of improper prosecution procedures. Biden's was thrown out because he's a senile old man. How do you compare those two cases?
  • Puddy Tat
    3 months ago
    @Ron - I think Biden is making himself near irrelevant, he's a lame duck with dementia. He'll just prove that he is still among the living. Harris is now the most powerful person in the Democratic party.
  • RonJax2
    3 months ago
    Sorry I meant that prior comment for @rick.

    @puddy:

    > If you have a link as to why she's more compelling than Biden on abortion, I'm interested to see that.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/20…

    > I agree that abortion is the single best issue for the Democrats. I think it's what single-handedly drove their 2022 outperformance.

    Yep. For the record, there's 11 states in the country where abortion will literally be on the ballot in 2024: https://www.kff.org/womens-health-policy…

    Importantly, that list includes swing states of NV, AZ, and PA. And there's also Florida. If Florida goes blue because abortion is on the ballot, Trump is toast in the EC.

    And expect still for the issue to motivate voters in swing states without abortion ballot initiatives. Dems will be running on this issue in all 50 states.

    > Trump is shrewdly distancing himself from having nominated 3 pro life justices.

    I think he needs to do this but I doubt it will be effective, especially for any pro-choice voters. Roe would be intact but for his appointments.

    > But with a lot of crazy candidates on state ballots, many outright promising 6 week abortion bans, it won't be a much of a hit.

    We'll see. I haven't been following a lot of state and local races, there's so many going on this election. But from what I've seen there's definitely some crazies running.
  • Puddy Tat
    3 months ago
    @Ron -

    Harris abortion article is paywalled.

    Yeah that's 3 states but only 3, and Trump is in the lead in all of them. Florida is a pipe dream, no use speculating. If Trump was out there touting those 3 justices, he wouldn't be ahead on the polls. They're going to flog it but it's 2 more years in the rear view mirror.

    Being an ex Catholic I know plenty of crazy pro life activists. They're willing to make the Republicans the minority for a generation in order to ban abortion for a day. Trump could have a Sister Souljah moment if he stood up to them.

    Trump hasn't put the likes of Herschel Walker, Mehmet Oz, and Kari Lake on ballots. Their Senate candidates might be a bit more populist like the guy in Ohio but they're sane.
  • RonJax2
    3 months ago
    > Yeah that's 3 states but only 3, and Trump is in the lead in all of them.

    Yeah but Kamala has only been wielding the Roe cannon for a day. We'll see if those leads hold. She was in NC today and abortion was definitely a topic, check out this bit from 5:00-5:30ish: https://youtu.be/Y3O75ZfcBOg?si=qXXrrO8z…

    I think we'll see some movement in the polls.

    > Trump hasn't put the likes of Herschel Walker, Mehmet Oz, and Kari Lake on ballots.

    I don't believe shes been nominated yet, but Kari Lake will be on the ballot. She'll be running against Ruben Gallego for AZ Senate.
  • Puddy Tat
    3 months ago
    ^ I'm not sold on the "Roe cannon." She's already been visiting abortion clinics in the trail and Democrats have been flogging it for 2 years. It's their Great White Hope.
  • Puddy Tat
    3 months ago
    Harris 12 points behind Biden among young voters.

    https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten?ref_…
  • RonJax2
    3 months ago
    @Puddy

    I can't figure out the source of your +12 poll from the link, it just goes to Harry Enten's home page for me and he's currently posting about cats.

    But if we're going to cherry pick polls, let's look at this one from Reuters/Ipsos: https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/file…

    It's the most recent national poll with N>1,000, post Biden drop out. And it shows Kamala leading among all, registered and independent voters.

    Still I think it's too early to look at polls. I will hold my breath on Nate Silver turning his model back on next week.

    I am interested in a couple of other tea leaves though:

    Massive surge in new voter registration post Biden drop out: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/47…. (Part of that was driven by Taylor Swift.)

    Single biggest fundraising 24 hour period for any party ever: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/47…
  • wld4tatas
    3 months ago
    @rickdugan

    I am no expert on the spectrum of voters on either side. I suppose some small % of Dems could buy into this latest right wing crock that a few prominent Dems ganged up on Biden and essentially forced his decision. But look at the long list of people who spoke up following the debate: 32 House members, 5 Senators, various celebrities and media outlets. Are we supposed to believe Obama and Pelosi orchestrated all that ? Puhleez. Further, it was all done with great respect to Biden, acknowledging his tremendous career of service. Biden will continue to reinforce his support for Harris and the importance of this election with the same message he gave tonight, right up to election day. Anyone still thinking Biden got shafted is going to hear Biden's message many times. Very hard to envision any scenario where a significant number of these voters still stay at home and don't vote, at the risk of electing Trump. It would be a complete contradiction to the outcome they know Biden cares deeply about.
  • skibum609
    3 months ago
    Single biggest fundraising ever. Of course it's a lie, just like movie grosses because it's not adjusted for inflation. Wow celebrities support Biden. How fuvkibg
  • rickdugan
    3 months ago
    @wld4tatas: Classic NE liberal mentality thinking that it's all about messaging and "buy in" lol. Nothing that is said and done now can change what everyone witnessed very publicly, including Biden's good soldier act. Good luck with older centrist Dem voter turnout in some of those Midwestern swing states, especially with a crazy ass progressive like Kamala at the top of the ticket. They are going to regret how they played this.
  • twentyfive
    3 months ago
    ^ Nobody is going to get exactly what they want with Kamala, but she will prevent Trump from getting elected, which is the outcome that was inevitable if Biden didn’t step aside, and the outcome that nobody wanted, except for the hard core Trump fans.

    @RD the Republicans are doing their own version of the good soldier act, look at all of these folks that spoke out against Trump falling in line, even wearing Trump’s trademark oversized jacket along with a too long red tie and red MAGA hat.
  • RonJax2
    3 months ago
    Yes, the Democratic Party sure seems full of regret this week. They are lamenting the record breaking fundraising, all the new voter registrations, and the week full of dominating the headlines almost exclusively.
  • Puddy Tat
    3 months ago
    "and the outcome that nobody wanted, except for the hard core Trump fans."

    Uh, Trump’s ahead, dude.

    "They are lamenting the record breaking fundraising, all the new voter registrations, and the week full of dominating the headlines almost exclusively."

    Today the party tomorrow the hangover. Initial enthusiasm always fades.

  • Hank Moody
    3 months ago
    It’s too early to know how this race is going to play out, but I much prefer a 100 day campaign. Two years of Trump v. Biden was depressing. No way to avoid it, but the hyper speed elections that they had in France and England seem pretty attractive about now.
  • Puddy Tat
    3 months ago
    @Hank - it's 100 days for Harris, not Trump. He's been under the microscope for 9 years. Democrats are projecting all their hopes on her, forgetting that she HAS RUN on the national stage and been a dud. You're in love with the idea of her. Reality will set in
  • gammanu95
    3 months ago
    The Republicans are finally remembering what Reagan taught them and what the democrats learned in 2016. They have also learned how disastrous Biden was and how obviously Kamala will be so much worse.
  • twentyfive
    3 months ago
    ^ Trump’s been under the microscope for closer to fifty years, you should be accurate and admit that this microscopic scrutiny is mostly self inflicted, he’s been an attention seeking idiot since he was in his early twenties, and he’s gotten more attention than he deserves. He seeks the spotlight constantly then he complains when the attention is less than flattering. He defines P. T. Barnums quote fooling some of the people all of the time.
  • twentyfive
    3 months ago
    ^^ How do you contrast Mr Reagan’s “Tear down this wait” speaking of the Berlin Wall, with Mr Trumps “ Putin can do what the hell ever he wants” speaking of the Russians war on The Ukraine.
    Sorry buddy I was a fan of Ronald Reagan, and Donald J. Trump isn’t half the man Ronald Reagan was.
  • gammanu95
    3 months ago
    That was Abraham Lincoln you ignorant idiot! Why are you always wrong all of the time?

    https://www.socratic-method.com/quote-me…

    You live by Mark Twains quote of speaking and removing all doubt that you are a fool, PT Barnums actual quote of a sucker born every minute, and the second half of Abe's quote you're a person fooled all of the time. You are so fucking dumb it makes me physically ill. You are everything wrong with liberals today!
  • gammanu95
    3 months ago
    How about Obama's line to Vlad that he can do more after the election? Or your boy Biden's line that "I gave him a list", or your girl Hillary's "reset button" moment?

    Don't cross swords with me. You always lose.
  • twentyfive
    3 months ago
    ^ you can’t keep to the topic, little boy, that’s my opinion you’re not smart enough to rebut the fact's, just looking to fight as always
  • twentyfive
    3 months ago
    Cross swords with you LOL what a gay man u r.
  • gammanu95
    3 months ago
    You never get tired of me schooling you.
    You are spending your retirement as my cockholster. How did that make you feel?
    I know you've been PMing members asking for their help attacking me, and they turned you down. Trying to drag third parties into a stupid little online flame war? They are the ones who named you "small-dick energy".

    You are such a pathetic old loser.
  • twentyfive
    3 months ago
    ^ You’re not right in the head, you poor little thing.
  • gammanu95
    3 months ago
    ^you never get tired of being wrong, a demented old fart who is too senile to see us all laugh at his stupidity. Hey, quote us some more "PT Barnum" fool, lol
  • twentyfive
    3 months ago
    ^ as soon as you tell us about the politics of George Orwell

    All you ever do is look for a fight, since you’ve been here you’ve made comments about my service record, my children my deceased spouse. If you don’t like my opinions I don’t care not one bit, and one thing I know for sure is that you’d never say out loud any of this nonsense you keep spouting off to my face because when it comes to being a cowardly cunt, you are the most cowardly cunt on this board. That’s a well known fact and you’ve proven that and continue to remind everyone here how little of a person you really are.
  • gammanu95
    3 months ago
    ^are you really that blind to your hypocrisy?
    You are the most combative and disagreeable poster on this board
    You attack me for being a college grad and not enlisting
    You've attacked my parents and my wife
    You insult everyone who disagrees with you even your buddies like Skibum
    You've already threatened to charge assault & battery with senior kicker if I ever did catch you in person
    Everyone sees you for the small dick loser you are. Are you mad because you peaked in 1961? As I told you, it was the people you tried to recruit who labeled you tiny dick syndrome and snubbed you!
    The best thing you can do for yourself and this board is to shut the fuck up and let it go. Learn to disagree without being disagreeable. Attack political arguments with facts and data. Do not misname Ulaanbaatar, misframe the Budapest Memorandum, misquote Abe Lincoln and PT Barnum, promulgated lies and fake news, or misrepresent your elderly social justice warrior liberal democrat self as any thing else.
    You love to quote Mark Twain on being mute and thought a fool than speaking and removing all doubt, but that is you every damn day! How can you not see this? I happily call you out on it all the time, so I know you do. Just learn to settle down and have good time here. Better yet, log off and touch grass.
  • twentyfive
    3 months ago
    I’m not going to waste my time or energy responding to your nonsense.
    Adios loser


  • gammanu95
    3 months ago
    You will not respond because you cannot respond because I will just keep calling out your bullshit.
    You should bid me Adios. Ignore me, cease posting to my threads, cease attacking me on other threads, and I will reciprocate. You will be free to post bullshit about anyone but me. Or don't, and I will continue to call out your bullshit every time. The choice is yours.
  • twentyfive
    3 months ago
    LOLOL stupid people saying stupid things
  • gammanu95
    3 months ago
    All right, so you continue to be my bitch
  • twentyfive
    3 months ago
    Go suck some orange cock you stupid little twat
  • gammanu95
    3 months ago
    Oh yeah, real classy.
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