tuscl

DJT Stock

Friday, May 31, 2024 12:59 PM
This isn't technically political, but I know someone here is going to make it such, so I'm putting it in the political forum. Has anyone bought or day traded DJT stock? The market hasn't opened yet but in the premarket his stock is _UP_ 6%, and I see this stock as basically a bet on Trump getting office, a meme stock. Even if it weren't, I don't know the company or media and won't trade it.

28 comments

  • Hank Moody
    2 months ago
    The price makes no sense from a valuation standpoint. The business sucks. Related, there may be volatility swings as people trade with their hearts and you can make money on that volatility. One of the big risks however is that the orange menace owns the majority of the stock (60% maybe?) and if he decides he needs cash he may sell it off even as it brings down the price. Trade it as alternative to betting on sports but don’t shift your 401k to it.
  • twentyfive
    2 months ago
    This is a highly manipulated stock, the valuations are nutso, at some point this stock will collapse probably the hour after Trump sells his shares.
  • Puddy Tat
    2 months ago
    I agree with both of you, but the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. It's basically a bet that Trump will get elected. I have tons of stock market credentials but (1) I don't day trade, I've lost too much that way, (2) I don't do meme stocks, as I'm better with fundamental analysis than reading the popular winds, and (3) I stick to what I know, which isn't the media sector. @Hank - I don't think Trump can sell for 6 months after the IPO (that would be either late September or early October). Who knows where it is then. With ~60% of the stock, he won't be able to sell much without tanking it. You're right, $4M in 2023 sales, $60M net loss, $8.7B market cap makes no sense. But it moves with popular sentiment, not valuation. Options look to have a fuckton of volatility baked in. I wouldn't touch DJT stock or any derivative with a ten foot pole.
  • Puddy Tat
    2 months ago
    Oh and now stock down 5% in an upmarket day. Again fluctuating with popular winds.
  • 5footguy
    2 months ago
    "makes no sense from a valuation standpoint" "highly manipulated stock, the valuations are nutso" ... Valuations don't even matter much for the broad market since the Fed runs the show, and even less so for single stocks, and even less for a company which will be traded very emotionally (think tsla). "Manipulation" is hard to define when it comes to speculation, but by a generally broad definition, all stocks are manipulated. Nothing especially manipulated about DJT, particularly given that it's not in any major indexes (so it's not bought/sold due to arbitrage as much).
  • JamesSD
    2 months ago
    There's no way anyone is treating a stock built entirely around a very old man in poor health as a long term play. I'm actually surprised how stable the price has been overall.
  • Puddy Tat
    2 months ago
    It's down 6% now but for a meme stock that's nothing.
  • Manuellabore
    2 months ago
    Have owned and traded stock for 40 years and never considered put options (a bet on the stock price declining) until the DJT IPO. The pricing showed that the experts were way ahead of me, and there was no way for a non-professional investor to make money by betting against that stock. There is also no way to make money by buying and holding that stock, either short or long term. It may or may not fall off a cliff one day, but it is also never going to spike dramatically. The potential uplift from a Trump election victory is already baked into the current market value which, as others have mentioned, is totally out of line with the horrible financials. My SWAG is that the stock will gradually slide toward its true valuation, which is in penny stock territory. unless you have the time and energy for day trading, or you have insider information that you are willing to risk going to jail for using, the best way to buy and own stock is long term investment in an age-appropriate combo of stock and muni bond ETFs or mutual funds, with dividends reinvested, and don't even look at performance or financial statements until you do your taxes.
  • Book Guy
    2 months ago
    Anybody know if shares in DJT have made it into any managed funds (Money Market funds, etc.) yet? I don't know how to do that kind of investigation. I would like to know what kind of institutional investors are going after it. Not that I'm buying -- no frickin' way I'd put money in DJT, neither of the legal persons involved here, neither the corporation nor the human -- but I'm definitely curious.
  • twentyfive
    2 months ago
    ^ no legitimate money manager would touch DJT !
  • Puddy Tat
    2 months ago
    I'm a Republican but I know some conservative suckers will buy and "hodl" with "diamond hands" (look it up) as their patriotic duty, and ride it down as far as it will go. And true to form, Trump will cash out with their money, leaving their pockets empty. As of right now, the betting odds, which have been more accurate than polls, show a narrowing of the gap today, but Trump still maintains a substantial lead. I doubt the results of this trial will change many minds.
  • 5footguy
    2 months ago
    Trading/investing is one of the last frontiers where raw performance rules. You can't bullshit or sleep your way up a corporate ladder, you can't blame your parents, you can't let some other guy do all the work and take credit for it. You own your performance. When you win, YOU own the win. When you lose, YOU own the loss. 95% of wannabe players blame other factors but real traders know those are bitches and just laugh at them. Best of all, you get to put your money where your mouth is. Talk is cheap, and opinions are like assholes. But ask people to put real money in it, and the game changes. So, if you really believe DJT is trash, short the shit. No need to buy puts, just short it. Or, if you think it's a great stock, buy it. Probably none of you shit talkers will, because most people are full of shit and don't believe in themselves enough to actually risk money, you'd rather just run your mouth. Disclaimer: I have zero interest in DJT and care zero about how it performs.
  • Manuellabore
    2 months ago
    Unhedged short sales make sense for virtually no individual investor, as the downside risk is technically limitless.
  • 5footguy
    2 months ago
    You don't sound as confident as you did above when you said "but it is also never going to spike dramatically". Never going to spike? Short it. Grab your balls and put some money on the table. Jan '26 $2.50 leaps are less than a buck. You said it was penny stock territory after all.
  • Puddy Tat
    2 months ago
    I think the stock has next to no intrinsic value but I'm not taking a "naked short" position unless I'm screwing a hot female midget. Democrat or Republican, anyone who claims to know where an emotion-driven stock like this is going, needs a checkup from the neck up. Most people are risk averse, as in the pain of losing $X outweighs the pleasure of winning $X. Me especially so, I used to love going to Mohegan and playing a little blackjack, then celebrating (or drowning my pain) at the strip club... until I realized I'll take the guaranteed fun at the strip club and end up happier. Most options are highly illiquid and I would rather sell theta than buy it... inherently depreciating asset.
  • Techman
    2 months ago
    I bot on the short squeeze news on 4/16 @ $23 sold on 4/15 @ $52. Just 100 shares not a big commit. I watch the short interest on political issue stocks.
  • Puddy Tat
    2 months ago
    @technan, good on you for making something, at least. I will say that once I walked into a Trump casino put $15 on Black 10 and walked out $525 richer.
  • Techman
    2 months ago
    The short list is better odds.
  • Pussylicker2
    2 months ago
    I'm up about 50k trading DJT. I doubt many will believe me. I was with TD Ameritrade, and when TDA was bought by Schwab, they lost some of my trading history, or I'd provide a complete list of my trades. Right now I hold 100 shares, which is at $49. Yesterday, Friday, at about 3:55 I sold $55 calls for .70, they expire 6-7. So I'll make $700 in 1 week. I previously sold 10 puts, $45 strike, 7-18 exp, for $13.50. They've already gone down th about $11. This is the easiest stock I've ever experienced to make money with. "Buy and hold" doesn't work. Buying options doesn't work. Day trading doesn't work. What works for me is selling options and harvesting premiums. When you play the market you're competing with AI, and guys who are smarter than you. The price of options, especially puts, is out of whack for djt. I believe it's because people suffering from tds are buying puts. How does a $45 put on a stock selling for $52 get priced at $13.49? The only way that can lose is for the stock to drop from $52 to $31.51 in 8 weeks. Wanna make money with DJT? 1) Have $40k cash in your account 2) Monday morning sell 10 puts, $40 strike, exp 6-21, for $4.10. You'll bank $4,100 in 2 weeks. Thank me later. Or don't, I don't care. Think I'm wrong? Buy some of those puts, then blame Trump when your puts expire worthless.
  • Book Guy
    2 months ago
    I don't know most of this lingo. Haven't ever traded stock except as part of long-term portfolio management at investment houses. Don't know how. But the psychological assessments that I've taken all say I'm highly non-averse to risk, relative to the regular populace. I'd like to disagree, since I dislike downhill skiing as the run down is boring to me, but I like riding the ski-lift up the mountain in the peace and quiet at treetop level before the run down.
  • Pussylicker2
    2 months ago
    By the way, the $40 6-21-24 put I suggested selling 4 days ago for $4.10 can be bought back for $2.99, profit $1,110. Not bad for 4 days. Look it up. Easy money.
  • twentyfive
    2 months ago
    @Pussylicker2 Gambling while fun isn’t investing, I’ve been investing in many different businesses and equities for many years and over the long run made plenty of mistakes and had some success. What you’re describing is just a form of gambling we call musical chairs, when the music stops the only person to come out with some money will be Donald Trump. So go ahead have some fun speculate a bit, its fine to hit a jackpot, if you can get lucky, but don’t get carried away with it.
  • Puddy Tat
    2 months ago
    ^ if you don't know what drives the stock, don't invest in it. DJT or not. It's basically a meme stock.
  • twentyfive
    2 months ago
    ^ to me it’s unimportant what drives any individual stock, there are so many opportunities out there, that I can apply the fundamental concepts I am familiar with , it’s just not possible to play every available position. I have a portfolio with positions in about 40 unique equities and ETFs along with some Real Estate and a few alternative assets, I doubt that it’ll make much of a difference to me what DJT does Jes sayin
  • Call.Me.Ishmael
    2 months ago
    For idealogy-focused investors on the conservative side, consider God Bless America ETF. YALL is the ticker, which I find humorous.
  • Puddy Tat
    2 months ago
    @25 - yeah, there are tens of thousands of stocks and more mutual funds to fuck with. It's better to follow a few stocks, know them inside and out, than to try and track everything. I have a bunch of stock in index/ETFs and a smaller chunk that I play Portfolio Manager with. Diversified into other assets but as one of the younger guys here, I'm not fucked on a short term dip. I'm not going to trade DJT or any derivative; I just started this thread to see if anyone had the guts (or foolishness) to trade Trump media...or if conservatives were more likely to go long and liberals short... @Ishmael - that is pretty good. Some ETFs are interestingly named. I wonder if there's a Christian values one JSUS or a Muslim one ALAH. Endless possibilities.
  • Book Guy
    2 months ago
    My family has a ton of oil stocks. I'm the young gun in the fold and therefore should, by traditional expectations, be the one objecting to the fact that our investments are helping under-pin and perpetuate the carbon industry and its destruction of our natural environment. But I don't find it so easy. Many oil companies are actually energy companies, very heavily invested in diversifying their business model because they know the extraction-process is going to run out on them some time soon. It will become more profitable for, f.e., Shell to manage wind farms or tidal generators, some day soon, and Shell (among others) doesn't seem to be dropping the ball on that concept. Further, I like the profitability. I once bought a few thousand worth of a Mutual Fund with a description that it invested in something like "sustainable energy" but quickly learned that it had mostly the same stocks as many of the other blue-chip energy funds. I want a single mothers mutual fund, STRP. Stocks in PL futures ...
  • twentyfive
    2 months ago
    ^ IMHO it’s just as important to have a diversified portfolio, and to be able to keep your investments safe, one way to do this is to be sure that no single investment totals more than 10% of your portfolio, and that you spread your funds across multiple sectors of the market. Smart investors look to maximize their profits and minimize their risk.
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