Recession signs
mark94
Arizona
In June, 35% of US small businesses were unable to pay their rent. It’s only going to get worse.
https://www.alignable.com/forum/rent-cri…
https://www.alignable.com/forum/rent-cri…
Got something to say?
Start your own discussion
75 comments
But I still say that the full build back better, with the upper income tax hikes, and then the Green New Deal, are the best ways to respond.
Mark, you see a lot of things differently from me. I am interested to know how you and anyone here would critique this Sacramento Mayor Darrell Steinberg? He is also talking about economic issues.
https://engagesac.org/blog-civic-engagem…
SJG
Jane - School of Rock
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BdWq4w8D…
I live alone and don't like to cook thus I eat-out/do-takeout a lot - at least in my area I see a marked reduction in restaurant foot-traffic - I haven't been to a mall in a while so IDK how they are doing but with school starting soon I assume they will have a decent amount of traffic.
SJG
Translation: less trash in the Burger King dumpster lately.
ROTFL
That would be San Jose Guy who now has changed his name to Sacramento Guy. He has been out of work since 1994.
Meanwhile, Gender Studies graduates from elite colleges are living in their parent’s basement, working part time at Starbucks.
Which one of those groups is smarter ?
https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/04/economy/m…
Unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5%
“the number of Americans not in the labor force -- no job and not looking for one -- climbed above the 100,000,000 mark again, settling at 100,051,000 in July. That's a 239,000 increase from June; and it follows an increase of 510,000 from May to June, when the number rose to 99,812,000.”
How many of those 100,000,000 not working are getting government assistance ?
SJG
If you mean the government subsiding “good” corporations and penalizing “ bad” corporations, that’s a horrible idea.
I opposed all pandemic handouts including the PPP. I also opposed the 2 year lockdown which gave government an excuse for meddling with the economy. The lockdown and the resulting government intervention in the economy fucked us over royally.
The lockdowns may have hurt poor people the most. They are suffering the most now from higher prices. During the lockdowns themselves, many of them were working since many of them were in essential jobs in areas like food production and distribution and were still exposed to the disease. Richer people, the laptop class, just got to stay home and work in their pajamas. Financial bailouts often went to the politically connected, not necessarily those who needed them the most. Large numbers of small businesses went under while Amazon and Walmart made huge profits. For some reason, delivering packages was considered not to spread Covid as the merchandise passed through the big Amazon warehouses that were still open to the delivery guys and going to a crowded big box store like Walmart to buy something like shoes was ok because it also sold food.
YES
"We tried to avoid the short-term negative effects by printing up and passing out six trillion dollars over two years."
Yes, that is what happened, Pelosi and Trump standing side by side at the printing press, using hair driers to make the green ink dry faster. And it was really stupid.
"The lockdowns may have hurt poor people the most. They are suffering the most now from higher prices."
YES
The bailout money sustained rentiers and mortgage lenders. It protected the real estate bubble. But with the economy stopped it was the real estate and securities bubbles that should have absorbed the hit.
"Large numbers of small businesses went under while Amazon and Walmart made huge profits."
YES
And the sheltering, masking, and travel restrictions protect nothing and no one.
SJG
If you do have adequate savings, the patriotic thing (to prevent a recession) is to not reduce your spending. (Don't increase it much either, since inflation is also a potential problem.) I know, strange, novel concept of patriotism here. No threats, violence, or hatred of people who aren't straight white males involved.
If you are both a gambler and an unusually smart investor, it might make sense to short the market. Otherwise any time spent guessing if a recession is coming would more productively be spent wanking to porn.
So... Car demand is still strong. I know there's a shortage. But so far this is a very shallow recession.
I was going to be too lazy to look it up but here it is.
https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_total_…
The thing about a recession is that shit hits the fan over time – it doesn’t all happen at once at the beginning – no one can guarantee what kinda recession there will be nor if one will happen at all, but a lot of signs are pointing to it analogous to a bad weather event in the Atlantic that w/ each day seems it has more of a chance of becoming a hurricane.
Already happened. Migrants--the great majority of which are economic, not the bullshit asylum claim--are pouring over the border at an alarming rate.
And the economic downturn is really starting to be noticeable. You see it by how people grocery shop. My favorite bar used to be standing room only Saturday nights. Last night there were 23 people. It's been like that a few weeks. Strip clubs can get busy but not much money is being spent. Restaurants and malls are dead. I went to a mall recently and was surprised there weren't more people doing back to school shopping. Ross and Marshall's don't seem to be busy either.
Seems to me, the solution is to figure out the right amount for a per-hour tax on hiring a legal guest worker. If somebody can't compete with another worker who is much more expensive than they are, that's probably a problem that won't be fixed by kicking the other worker out, That somebody probably has physical or psychological limitations. Maybe just due to the fact that current US residents are much older on average than people in Latin America. The tricky part would be catching abusive employers who hire guest workers who will put up with it.
Something that can’t go on forever, won’t.
However, there are other factors making it look better than it is. The unemployment levels are relatively low, until you begin examining the labor pool and see that it has shrunk due to many folks stopping their search for a job.
The bank I work for is doing very well. We are ahead of originations volume targets, delinquency rates are low, and yet we haven’t replaced many folks who departed during the pandemic. Even our bank president mentioned that our efficiency ratio is looking too good. There is a challenge to find good people.
The main concern - in this environment - is rate compression. A loan rate that is reasonable today, will likely become less profitable when the next rate hike moves in. So, forecasting the timing and size of the Fed increases is important as well.
It’s no fun to see them pushing rates up, to tighten the available amount of loanable funds, but it is necessary to slow the inflationary pressures, and try to avoid a full scale recession.
I’m not a fan of a lifelong government employee (with diminished mental capacity) being at the top of the current administration. But, I hope the folks pulling the strings are smarter than him.
https://www.india.com/news/world/after-s…
Putting more people into Welding Programs does not alter this.
As we don't need the labor, if people want to major in Gender Studies, all the better.
The remedy is Universal Basic Income, Strong Public Housing Offering to contain private gentrification, Medicare for All, Free College with past college debts being pushed onto higher income and high portfolio tax payers.
SJG
Jane - School of Rock
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BdWq4w8D…
The Pretty Reckless - Take Me Down (Official Music Video)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BQpZv2r8…
SJG
Jane - School of Rock
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BdWq4w8D…
The Pretty Reckless - Take Me Down (Official Music Video)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BQpZv2r8…
Down on Me - School of Rock
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CRjYeoGi…
Aquarius - School of Rock
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hp_E4a4p…
SJG
I’m sure the government will use this money wisely. Yet another way to help the working man with inflation.
I don't like bringing a car in there.
SJG
Anyway, the stock market may be indicating the fed sees the light at the end of the tunnel for raising rates, but will take credit for it from the natural force of the cycle. We were red hot and will likely plateau a bit longer from here with economic activity.