Only read a portion - seems like a slanted piece cherry-picking stats to support their view.
Just b/c one has diabetes or another underlying condition doesn't mean it's ok for them to die and not try to avoid those tens-of-thousands of deaths that would o/w not be
No one wants, nor is enjoying the lockdown - as has been posted b/f, we can't stay locked-down indefinitely nor for months on end - but w/ the lack of testing, nor any medical remedy or vaccine, and cases actually increasing vs decreasing, it doesn't appear to me, nor most health experts, that we are over the hump.
Obviously it's unlikely we can wait till Corona is completely nipped-in-the-bud, but as for me I think we should be past the hump and on the way down w/ at least something in place to deal w/ it in the meantime (ample testing, etc) - yesterday recorded the highest # in new-cases since they started keeping track w/ almost 40k new cases (38.95k to be exact).
That article makes a lot of sense.
I wonder if the majority of the people who died got infected on their own by not isolating or by their children and grand children.
It’s scary to see the number of cases growing but as long as those people are not old or have underlying conditions it’s actually good because it’s building herd immunity.
Today I rode my Harley to see Trump’s Terranea Resort, and it is “closed”.
I found a little Park and portion of trails next to the road open.
I walked to the park to see the ocean view from the top of the cliff.
A few people were in the park, some with masks some without masks.
A lot of people walking, walking their dogs and riding bicycles, some families Dad, Mom and two kid on bikes.
No Panic, No Isolation...
The unemployment rate is over 20%. That's more than 26 million people. If we don't stop this insanity soon, the damage to the U.S. will be profound, if it isn't already. With the government printing and pumping trillions of dollars into the economy, we are probably headed for a period of severe inflation in the near future.
“Of 6,570 confirmed COVID-19 deaths fully investigated for underlying conditions to date, 6,520, or 99.2 percent, had an underlying illness.”
The key words “COVID-19 deaths fully investigated for underlying conditions” are what is most important here. This is the medical/scientific post mortem investigation (fully investigated) that has been lacking thus far. It isn’t the media selling papers, politicians pandering to and stealing from the populace, the medical industry basking in the lime-light, or the scarred of dying hysterical Chicken Littles hiding under their beds. It is what public health and medical science is all about – meaningful facts.
The 99.2% result should force even the most skeptical to acknowledge that a concerted effort to identify, isolate and protect those most vulnerable would be a better use of resources all around.
At this point, IMHO, everything in this article is spot on and the observations/opinions will most probably be borne out with more time and more research.
The virus is real, people have and will die from it but it is time to start to acknowledge that the reaction was overdone and history may very well conclude that the cure was far worse than the disease.
"... According to a new analysis by the Department of Health and Human Services, 50 to 129 million (19 to 50 percent of) non-elderly Americans have some type of pre-existing health condition ..."
Anything from being overweight to asthma to hypertension to diabetes to a myriad of other issues than can o/w be managed:
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"... More than 200 public companies applied for at least $854.7 million from the government program that was billed as for small businesses without access to other sources of capital ... That includes $126.4 million for three public companies affiliated with Texas hotelier Monty Bennett. One of those firms, Ashford Hospitality Trust, applied for $76 million in 117 separate loans, the most by a single company ..."
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Agree with Papi... cherry picked info to present one side of the argument. On the other side, you have inconvenient facts like deaths from COVID-19 going from 25k to 50k in the space of a couple of weeks. That doesn't sound harmless.
@BabyDoc: According to CMS, the number of non-elderly Americans with a pre-existing condition is approximately 50%. Of the entire population. Elderly Americans are another 15% or so. Makes the low risk population about 1 in every 3 people, so the most vulnerable people are also the majority of people.
I'm willing to wait for that number to go down. :-)
being shut in causing divorce......tmz KRISTIN CAVALLARI, JAY CUTLER
WE'RE DIVORCING AFTER 10 YEARS TOGETHER
4/26/2020 10:37 AM PT
BREAKING NEWS
TMZ Composite
Kristin Cavallari just dropped some sad and actually shocking news ... she and Jay Cutler are throwing in the towel on their decade-long relationship.
Kristin just said, "With great sadness, after 10 years together we have come to a loving conclusion to get a divorce. We have nothing but love and respect for one another and are deeply grateful for the years shared, memories made, and the children we are so proud of."
She wanted to make it clear ... nothing untoward happened -- "This is just the situation of two people growing apart."
Kristin and Jay met during a Chicago Bears preseason game back in 2010. They married in 2013. They had a son, Camden Jack, who was born in 2012 and another son, Jaxon Wyatt, who was born in 2014, followed by a daughter, Saylor James, born the following year.
This isn't the first split for the couple, remember back in 2011 Culter called off their engagement. However, they reconciled and got married in June 2013.
Both Kristin and Jay have been super successful. Obviously, he made a fortune -- $122 mil -- QB'ing for the Bears and the Miami Dolphins, and she's got a reality show, a jewelry company and lots of other stuff.
They were really a fun couple ... notably, Kristin showed off Jay's butt during a vacation.
They live in Nashville, but they were chronicling their self-isolation in the Bahamas over the last few weeks with their kids. They couldn't get a flight off the island. They finally went home last Monday.
'SNL'
BRAD PITT HILARIOUSLY PLAYS DR. FAUCI
... Older Women Send Me Graphic Emails!!!
4/26/2020 6:27 AM PT
EXCLUSIVE
RON WHITE
I'M NOT MAKING ANY MONEY ...
So Judge, Please End Spousal Support!!!
4/26/2020 7:23 AM PT
EXCLUSIVE
STRIP CLUBS
Big Changes Post-Pandemic
GLOVES, MASKS, NO LAP DANCES?!?
4/26/2020 1:00 AM PT
DEMI LOVATO
OPENS UP TO 'SONNY' CAST ABOUT REHAB, EATING DISORDER
4/26/2020 6:46 AM PT
EXCLUSIVE
CHAPPELLE, BURR, CUMMINGS, D'ELIA
RAISE $100,000 IN COVID-19 RELIEF ...
For Struggling Comedians
4/26/2020 12:50 AM PT
EXCLUSIVE
MIKE TYSON
FLOYD WILL BE GREAT TRAINER
... Boxing Is His Life!!!
4/26/2020 12:40 AM PT
EXCLUSIVE
'STRAIGHT OUTTA COMPTON' STAR
DENIES DRUGS & GUNS ARE HIS ...
I was Fleeing Pandemic w/ My Fam in a Rental!!!
4/26/2020 12:35 AM PT
EXCLUSIVE
NFL'S CHASE YOUNG
GUNNING TO 'TERRORIZE THE MOMENT'
... Seeks Trademark
4/26/2020 12:30 AM PT
EXCLUSIVE
EAGLES' MALIK JACKSON
DONATES $100K FOR COVID-19 RELIEF
... I'm Helping Kids!!!
4/26/2020 12:20 AM PT
CELEBRITY SCRAMBLE
GUESS WHO!
4/26/2020 5:57 AM PT
EXCLUSIVE
DELANIE WALKER
G-WAGON WRECKED IN SCARY L.A. CRASH
... NFL Star Uninjured
4/26/2020 12:10 AM PT
LOAD MORE STORIES
@mongo1964 “…so the most vulnerable people are also the majority of people.”
Umm, no. All people are vulnerable but “least” and “most” are relative terms. Pre-existing conditions are a factor but not all pre-existing conditions are equal. Determining which pre-existing conditions increase the risk and by how much and to whom are what legitimate investigations will do. The next step is to then apply what we know and decide how best to proceed.
Remember that age is still the predominant factor with about 90% of deaths occurring among those over 60 but not all infected elderly die from it. So add in pre-existing conditions and the relative vulnerability goes up exponentially. In the case of @shadowcat at 78 with advanced COPD and numerous recent episodes of pneumonia I would put him in the most vulnerable category and recommend “complete” isolation.
And yes, not everybody who dies is old but the risk is different. For @juicebox in his late 30’s and being obese yet presumably healthy otherwise I would classify him as low to moderate risk and recommend he continue working (as he is currently doing as I understand it) but that he practice the standard mask, hand washing, limited interaction AND that he monitor himself regularly (daily temperature checks and watch for symptoms). (*and if you’re reading this juicebox, you could still stand to lose a few more pounds. Just sayin’)
And if there were a hypothetical too cool for school 23 year old male who had spent the past 10 years ruining his lungs by smoking weed and vaping, my gut tells me he should be put in a high risk category while a 23 year old female Olympic athlete like Simone Biles with little to no on-going exposure to infected people probably has next to nothing to worry about.
I recently posted about a young 26 year old very healthy doctor who was seriously infected and had to be put on a ventilator (and thankfully has now recovered). She was infected BECAUSE she was working overtime on a COVID-19 ward and no doubt was exhausted and received a high load exposure (yet another factor).
My point is that it isn’t as simple as the histrionics want to make it out to be. Complete isolation to avoid all exposure may be the safest but it isn’t sustainable or IMO advisable.
Different people, different circumstances, different risks, different approaches. Nothing in life is guaranteed except death. No one gets out alive but I’ll leave you with this thought: “Life is tough but it is tougher if you’re stupid”. IMO it’s about time to demand that our elite overlords stop being so stupid.
===> "Remember that age is still the predominant factor with about 90% of deaths occurring among those over 60 but not all infected elderly die from it. So add in pre-existing conditions and the relative vulnerability goes up exponentially."
This. For young people, the common flu is far deadlier than COVID-19. The sooner can start working through the politics of openly acknowledging this reality, the sooner we can come up with a more sensible approach to managing this.
" For young people, the common flu is far deadlier than COVID-19"
18-44 is 4.5% of total covid deaths in NYC
18-49 is 4.5% of all flu deaths in us in 2017-2018
18-49 is 7% of all flu deaths in us in 2018-2019
Panic? What panic?
China initiated total quarantine on major cities. Do you think China would do that unless they felt it was an extreme risk to the population (and more accurately to their governments survival)?
The measures that are initiated are to prevent panic. Imagine a scenario where the virus overwhelms the health care system and people are dying in the streets. That's what creates "panic". That's what breaks down social order.
The fact that you don't see that manifesting under the present controls is a testimate to the effectiveness of the measures.
Panic lol
@BabyDoc: Valid points sir, and I think the ultimate arbiter between the two positions is going to be the development of comprehensive testing and to a lesser extent, what happens in Georgia and Florida with their experiment in reopening. Hopefully, they won't turn out like Hokkaido (sp?), but that's another data point in this discussion.
On the subject of what is vulnerable, the point I think I was trying to make is that we don't know the dividing line in terms of how to assess someone's risk level, and that the vulnerable group may be a significant fraction of people of working age. Based on what I've read, my cohort of old farts has a morbidity rate of around 3%. Put another way, that's like being handed a bowl of 100 M&Ms with the understanding that 3 of them are poisoned and possibly deadly. My answer to that (and opinions vary) is to take a pass. :-)
The saddest thing is that Americans seem to revel in being afraid. Stay inside, give up your rights, let the ficktards who pay $75.00 for a screw driver save us. If we added up all those who will die as a result of the quarantines, we will find that Coid was nothing but a panicked reaction by incompetents. Lets murder America to save the elderly and the fat. E pluribus unum means nothing.
Saying that all we need to do to reopen and isolate the most at risk people doesn’t account for the components of time or treatment. If we could immediately identify the 1% of the population that will die and just execute them, that would limit the cost. But it (obviously) doesn’t work that way. People will get sick and wrestle with the virus for weeks, occupying hospital beds, doctors, nurses and insurance funds. They will consume quantities of PPE that we currently don’t have under the lockdown, and certainly won’t have if we open up everything. If you think people are panicked now, wait until you tell the sick that they have to stay at home because they aren’t enough hospital beds or they are too much of a risk to justify expending treatment on them.
I think the most sensible approach is opening up regions where the risk is low. Pick a town or a city with low incidence of the disease. Or a state with low population density. Or upstate NY. But opening up cities with dense populations like NYC, Atlanta, Chicago, etc. right now doesn’t seem to be borne out by the amount of cases. We need better testing if we’re ever going to have confidence to open the cities.
For those people who are throwing around high hospitalization and mortality numbers, it's becoming increasingly clear now that those numbers are absurdly high. This thing has already spread much further than the number of positive tests, by anywhere from 20 to 50 times by some estimates. When we measure flu fatality and hospitalizations, we use total population projections because we know that the bulk of flu cases never get tested, but we aren't doing that for COVID-19 yet because there isn't enough data.
So yes, at some point we are going to have to take a more rational approach to this. We need to start thinking about how we can protect the elderly and other high risk types and get back to work.
Let’s all hope that (i) if you get and recover you are immune, at least for a while and (ii) the eventual vaccine is long lasting like the measles vaccine and not an annual guessing game, like the flu shot. If not, welcome to the new normal.
The transparency created by the internet and social media makes our appointmented leadership reluctant to make the difficult decisions. This could easily lead to a downfall of some sorts.
I suspect the people will become fatigued from all the scary news. The death count will fall deeper and deeper into the news reporting and far less scrutiny will be given to the reopenings.
@mongo - the article mentions "growing numbers". Does that mean two to five OR 1k to 15k. So many articles out there with incomplete data causing panic.
Looks like Florida’s governor Ron DeSantis has backed off his early opening and is now becoming more cautious
Hell he saw Kemp get his head handed to him by the POTUS and decided he didn’t want to be a whipping post.
Scrub “jimmy, the WHO has already said there is zero ability to build up an immunity.. at least that is the latest that I have read...”
I read the CNN piece to say there is NO EVIDENCE — either way — whether you get immunity or you don’t. They just don’t know yet. They have not said AFAIK that you can get it more than once.
You call it panic politics, I call it rational decision making, after all, none of the kool-aid drinkers, err I mean't Clorox drinkers want to get crosswise with the bully in the white house.
25, it's panic politics when people in places with no significant COVID-19 issues are nonetheless advocating for shutdowns while wearing masks outside and acting like scared rabbits. They sit in their homes nodding in agreement when equally panicky soft newscaster broadcast from home with dire PSAs about staying safe and social distancing.
What we need is more of these types to lose their incomes, which btw is coming if we can't open up soon. I suspect that when, once this happens, many of them will have a Coming to Jesus moment, lol.
^ I’d refrain from making assumptions based on your lack of knowledge
You really know nothing about my situation and your lame attempts to characterize anyone that disagrees with your flawed thinking as fear or panic, is just more nipping at my heels, and really sounds like envy on your part.
^ 25, as much as I enjoy needling you simply because it's so damned easy, in this case I wasn't making specific assumptions about you. Those were broader comments.
It's a pandemic - I assume what almost every nation is doing is "going by the book" per se - I assume the first and perhaps most important thing to do, is to try and stop/impede the spread of the infection in the event it becomes something uncontrollable (especially it being a novel virus) - at the onset no one probably knows for sure how severe it will be in terms of the spread and mortality, so it seems that the lockdown steps taken is the reasonable path until there is more clarity/information on how to deal w/ it.
i.e. the lockdown has been the reasonable thing to do given "the situation on the ground" and given the lack of "anti-pandemic systems" in place, for lack of a better word - IMO the sooner the virus can be stomped down, the sooner and more completely everything can come back to normal (economy, strip clubs, etc) - acting too-soon can likely extend things getting back to normal.
Yesterday the # of new cases had dropped to 26.5k which was a significant reduction compared to 2 days prior when it had been close to 39k, and the # of new deaths had also dropped to 1,157 yesterday (the lowest # in almost a month) - hopefully this trend will continue and we can be closer to opening up:
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===> "If we open up too soon we'll just have to close down again"
No we won't Willy, because we can't. Politicos know this. This is an extraordinary and unprecedented measure and we only have one bite at the shutdown apple, which they know and is one of many reasons why they are cautious in re-opening. The population will simply not tolerate another lockdown once this one is lifted. Maybe you will, but we've already established that you've been well neutered. ;)
Also, there are also no second or third wave of multi-trillion dollar stimulus packages coming own the pike. The federal government's ability to subsidize massive GDP losses is not unlimited. States simply cannot absorb another shutdown on their own.
So once the lockdowns are lifted, we will just have to ride out the results.
The article Warrior posted is one of the few explaining this strategy. I don’t know how folks are going to connect the dots after so much focus on “social distancing “. People can’t reconcile that with now being able to poke one’s head up.
MalakingDog you can't compare death rate of nearly non-quarantined flu victims with quarantined COVID-19. Not logical. If we were not quarantined the results would be dramatically different.
i was showing those stats to dispute the comment made by another posted who said "for young people, the common flu is far more deadly than COVID-19". what you said makes that statement even more false.
I swear the deniers will do anything they can to excuse their selfish refusal to follow government mandates. Its true that COVID 19 is a bit less dangerous than some of the previous estimates put it at. But its turning out that the mortality rate pretty solidly hovers around 1%. It is still 10 times more deadly than the flu, its just that some early projections of 5% for example were definitely too high.
I don't understand how the deniers can continue saying the things they do, meanwhile, 67,000-75,000 Americans are dead now, 54,000 Italians are dead when you look at excess mortality. Tens of thousands of people are dead in France, the UK, and Spain. Pretty much every country in the world has had a significantly higher death toll than their worst flu season. The same people who agree that China lied contradict themselves by saying the virus is not dangerous because the number of ash containers handed out by Chinese authorities is now showing that around 46,000 people died just in the city of Wuhan which is approximately 0.5% of the city's population. Meaning that if 50% of a city with a population of 9 million people got infected, then a 1% mortality rate would kill almost exactly 46,000 people.
So yes, COVID 19 is not a catastrophically dangerous virus. But its definitely not "the flu." I can't believe people are still trying to make that claim with all the people who are dead from it now.
And keep in mind, the death numbers in the US are much lower than they could've been. Lots of major metropolises in the US were barely affected because they shutdown in time. NYC did not shut down in time, which is why they've had such a high number of deaths. Antibody tests still show though that only 12.3% of New York and about 20% of NYC got infected. New York is still seeing hundreds of deaths per day and so far about 24,000-25,000 people there have died. This indicates 2.5 million people in New York got infected. During our worst flu season, about 60 million Americans got infected. This means if 60 million Americans got infected with covid 19, we would be seeing 600,000 deaths which is almost as many deaths as heart disease causes every year. Our leaders have decided that that is too many deaths to feel comfortable with allowing to happen so that's why we are shut down. Now if you comply with the policy and stay at home, this will be over faster.
@CC99 “Our leaders have decided that that is too many deaths to feel comfortable with allowing to happen so that's why we are shut down”
You may want to spend a little time reading up on the Milgram Experiment Just sayin’ (and smh)
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^I've read about several experiments like this.
I'm definitely not a blindly obedient person. I've experimented with a vast variety of drugs, the first time I got drunk I was 14 and found liquor in my brother's closet. I have a lot of controversial opinions that I am quite loud about no matter who disagrees.
But common sense says this is one area where we really do need to do what we're told. Me dropping acid in my freshman dorm was not going to result in consequences to anybody other than myself. But me not practicing social distancing could kill people. So I take the latter much more seriously than the former.
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