Advertisement

[OT] LEI

Apr 17, 2020, 2:28 PM
Avatar for FTS
FTS

The Conference Board LEADING Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. DECLINED 6.7 PERCENT in March to 104.2 (2016 = 100), following a 0.2 percent decrease in February, and a 0.4 percent increase in January.

“In March, the US LEI registered the largest decline in its 60-year history,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “The unprecedented and sudden deterioration was broad based, with the largest negative contributions coming from initial claims for unemployment insurance and stock prices. The sharp drop in the LEI reflects the sudden halting in business activity as a result of the global pandemic and suggests the US economy will be facing a very deep contraction.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. decreased 0.9 percent in March to 106.6 (2016 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in February, and a 0.1 percent increase in January.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased 1.2 percent in March to 110.2 (2016 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in February, and a 0.1 percent decline in January.

comments (12)

Jump to latest
Avatar for shailynn
shailynn

this is way too many numbers for Juice.

Avatar for rickdugan
rickdugan

Imagine what it's going to look like for April.

Avatar for Uprightcitizen
Uprightcitizen

It's a Cats - astrophe

Avatar for gobstopper007
gobstopper007

And I thought there was no such thing as a bad lei

Avatar for bdirect
bdirect

maybe things will get like it was in early 2020 in 2 years

Avatar for RandomMember
RandomMember

So if things are so grave, why did we just have the strongest 2-week rally in stocks since 1930s?

Avatar for bdirect
bdirect

fomo.....cause the buying...........

Avatar for rickdugan
rickdugan

Randumb_and_dumber, more than anything, because the market has already priced in certain horrible forward-looking assumptions. The rally is widely believed to be a function of optimism over decreasing infection rates and some states' movements towards re-opening.

But the market is still well below its peak and nobody knows what might set it back on another slide. It took several months for the market to go from peak to trough in 2008-2009 and there were plenty of mini-rallies along the way.

Avatar for bdirect
bdirect

fomo= fear of missing out

Avatar for FTS
FTS

IMO, there are a few causes for the rally.

  1. It is a response to Fed action (QE, bailouts, new financing facilities, etc)
  2. It is a technical rally. Stocks were SUPER oversold, so chartists and technical analysts bought the dip.
  3. It’s anticipation of the end of the Coronavirus pandemic and getting the economies back open, albeit a very optimistic anticipation.
Avatar for crazyjoe
crazyjoe

I agree with Rick and FTS

Avatar for bdirect
bdirect

i think this is a rope a dope rally

Advertisement