[OT] LEI
Friday, April 17, 2020 2:28 PM
The Conference Board LEADING Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. DECLINED 6.7 PERCENT in March to 104.2 (2016 = 100), following a 0.2 percent decrease in February, and a 0.4 percent increase in January.
“In March, the US LEI registered the largest decline in its 60-year history,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “The unprecedented and sudden deterioration was broad based, with the largest negative contributions coming from initial claims for unemployment insurance and stock prices. The sharp drop in the LEI reflects the sudden halting in business activity as a result of the global pandemic and suggests the US economy will be facing a very deep contraction.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. decreased 0.9 percent in March to 106.6 (2016 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in February, and a 0.1 percent increase in January.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased 1.2 percent in March to 110.2 (2016 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in February, and a 0.1 percent decline in January.
“In March, the US LEI registered the largest decline in its 60-year history,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “The unprecedented and sudden deterioration was broad based, with the largest negative contributions coming from initial claims for unemployment insurance and stock prices. The sharp drop in the LEI reflects the sudden halting in business activity as a result of the global pandemic and suggests the US economy will be facing a very deep contraction.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. decreased 0.9 percent in March to 106.6 (2016 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in February, and a 0.1 percent increase in January.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased 1.2 percent in March to 110.2 (2016 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in February, and a 0.1 percent decline in January.
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12 comments
But the market is still well below its peak and nobody knows what might set it back on another slide. It took several months for the market to go from peak to trough in 2008-2009 and there were plenty of mini-rallies along the way.
1. It is a response to Fed action (QE, bailouts, new financing facilities, etc)
2. It is a technical rally. Stocks were SUPER oversold, so chartists and technical analysts bought the dip.
3. It’s anticipation of the end of the Coronavirus pandemic and getting the economies back open, albeit a very optimistic anticipation.