What's up with all this yoyoing with the stock market ?

Papi_Chulo
Miami, FL (or the nearest big-booty club)
Just the market being the market - or is there some rhyme-or-reason?

43 comments

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Papi_Chulo
6 years ago
The economy seems strong, so why all this big ups and downs?

Some say it's the trade-wars? Some say it's the fed liquifying and raising interest-rates? But neither of these issues seem resolved and the market goes way down one day and way up another - worst than a stripper.
JamesSD
6 years ago
Trump is insane
flagooner
6 years ago
^ Huh? Can you expand on that a little?
JamesSD
6 years ago
We're likely in the late stages of a bull market. Wages are starting to rise, which main Street loves but Wall Street hates. Plus we have a new Congress coming in, and a lot of global uncertainty.

I could see the next 2 years being peachy or shit hitting the fan in the next two months. Can't blame jittery markets.
RandomMember
6 years ago
"Trump is insane"

LOL yep.

Yoyoing reminds me of period before dot-com crash when everyone was trying to evaluate the uncertain value of the market.
twentyfive
6 years ago
Actually we are in the early stages of a bear market
flagooner
6 years ago
We are headed for a recession. It always follows an unemployment rate low.
NJBalla
6 years ago
No large reason. We've gone through a lot in the past 8 years and noone wants to be left holding the bill if the economy crashes. That being said if it goes past 26,500 again im going to have a long talk with my financial partners.
Papi_Chulo
6 years ago
Article w.r.t. General Motors' concern for the economy going-forward:


Here's the buyout GM offered before announcing 14,000 job cuts

Before its layoff announcement, GM had offered voluntary buyouts to 17,700 employees, citing stiff competition and a tough economy.

About 2,250 workers took buyouts; the company was aiming for 8,000 "voluntary" separations.
GM announced 14,000 job cuts this week.

General Motors executives painted a bleak outlook of the global economy in offering buyouts to 17,700 employees last month.

"We must take significant action and now while our company and the economy are strong," they said in talking points given to managers in October to discuss the severance plan with staff. CNBC obtained the "leader talking points," and GM verified their authenticity.

An "intensely competitive" industry combined with pressure from rising commodities prices, interest rates and a difficult trade environment created a sense of urgency. "We need ... to make the right pre-emptive moves so that we come out of this tough time ahead," they said in the talking points.

The Detroit automaker on Monday announced plans to halt production at five factories in North America and cut about 14,000 jobs in the company's most significant restructuring since its bankruptcy in 2009. The news falls on the heels of an otherwise strong quarter. Its third-quarter earnings released Oct. 31 — the same day GM started soliciting the buyouts — showed its first year-over-year earnings growth since the first quarter of 2017 and sent the stock soaring 9 percent.

'Not an option'

But executives saw stiff competition and a tough economy ahead. The cuts are designed to free up some cash and position its workforce of 180,000 for the future of autonomous vehicles and electric cars.

"We cannot afford to wait and see what happens in the industry, or with China, or in international trade or currency, to then react," the severance document said. "Even if macro-economic factors are partially to blame, continuing to lower guidance to Wall Street is not an option."

GM offered voluntary buyouts to roughly 17,700 eligible employees in North America with at least 12 years of service, according to the document. The company was aiming for 8,000 voluntary buyouts among its salaried workers as part of a total headcount reduction of 14,000, spokesman Pat Morrissey confirmed. He said about 2,250 workers accepted severance agreements by the Nov. 19 deadline.

The carmaker previously said that involuntary layoffs would follow if there were not enough takers.

Roughly 5,750 salaried workers and 6,000 hourly employees will be laid off, he confirmed. Half of the hourly workers are in Canada with the other half in the U.S., where the company will work with union officials to try to move to other plants, Morrissey said.

Salary and benefits

GM is allowing some employees who took the buyouts to leave as early as this coming Saturday with an official last day of Jan. 31 and salary and benefits continuing for six months after that. Executives could also leave in December with an effective last day of Feb. 28 and a full year of salary and benefits, according to the severance materials.

GM warned this summer that the trade war instigated by President Donald Trump could force job cuts in the United States. Trump was irate with GM's announcement this week, tweeting on Tuesday that he was "very disappointed" with the company and CEO Mary Barra for idling plants in Ohio, Michigan and Maryland.

"Nothing being closed in Mexico & China. The U.S. saved General Motors, and this is the THANKS we get," Trump tweeted. He also threatened to cut all of the company's federal subsidies, following up on Wednesday with the announcement that the administration was studying all tariffs on cars imported to the U.S. because of the "G.M. event."

GM says the move would help to save $6 billion a year. Shares of the company jumped 4.8 percent on the announcement Monday, but Trump's tweets drove the stock down Tuesday and Wednesday. Its shares have fallen by almost 20 percent during the last year.

"A strong cash position is the only way the company can deal with these factors and also continue to invest in growth opportunities and to set ourselves up for the future," the talking points said.

"The leadership team is very focused on improving our cash generation and profit performance on each of our vehicles."

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/28/heres-th…
SanchoRG
6 years ago
When the market is up there were more buyers than sellers and vice versa. Why people buy or sell when they do is just a hard to predict mess so it’s better to not try to time the market. Nobody wins that fight long term
san_jose_guy
6 years ago
The stock market is a Ponzi Scheme, not much different between putting money into the stock market than gambling on athletic events or in a casino.

SJG
Iam4u2screw
6 years ago
I think it is a combination of several issues. The trade war is not helping and concerns over the raised tariffs after the 1st of the year is not helping. Also the time of the year doesn't help because historically the last 4-5 weeks of the year are chaotic for the market as people sell off at the end of the year. Along with that, the Fed has raised rates, unemployment is WAY down, and between the low unemployment making it more of a workers market and overall rising wages, business is facing lower margins and profits, thus causing more instability.

The question is what will the markets do the first 6 months of next year after the higher tariffs go into effect, a new congress is seated, and on hand inventories of goods are used/consumed requiring imports at the higher rates affecting material costs.
san_jose_guy
6 years ago
The pricing of the issues is determined by the professional managers of the pension, insurance, and hedgefunds.

Any information you might have about individual issues or the market as a whole, is long after the fact, merely a rationalization of why things are the way they are, having zero predictive ability.

The high the stock market, the greater the spiritual unhealth of our society. These markets run on fatalism, that simple fact that many find nothing else good to do with their money.

SJG
Mate27
6 years ago
Holy shit Papi, you had to stir the pot and watch people lay their BS on thick, didn’t you? U know why god made economists? (Answer) To make weathermen look good.

Nobody, especially the financial pundits know with any certainty why, what with the enormity of factors played in by institutional money managers and a whole host of other investors at play. The one thing that is certain is it will continue to go up and down, but over a longer view (10 years or more) it will be higher. That being said anybody who is earning a paycheck and investing a portion of that into the market should cheer any movements down so investors can purchase shares cheaper.

The laws of inflation and cash flow state the price of commerce(goods and services) will always be in demand, so it becomes a fools errand to guess if today’s price is fairly valued in terms of the markets. I stayed in early 2016 that we would only need to worry about an equity shock when interest rates start to materially march higher, and that’s the primary reason for the current swings. If we have a sideways market for another year, I think due to time value of money the market will be priced correctly. No I don’t think the market is overvalued, just a normal reaction to a rising g interest rate environment after coming off historic lows.
SanchoRG
6 years ago
I disagree, the stock market is (historically) insanely good if you want to save for retirement. Will it all collapse some day? Of course but hopefully long after I’m dead.
flagooner
6 years ago
The stock market is like throwing darts blindfolded. All known "news" is already accounted for in the price of the stocks.
Mate27
6 years ago
^^^ Correct. The random walk or the efficient market theory is what financial pundits don’t want you to believe, they(pundits) want to convince you that they know something that nobody else does, which is false. If anybody has listened to financial news the last 10 years, there are a large amount of them who’ve been calling Armageddon is around the corner every time they’re on TV. It’s the chicken little/sky is falling tactic; scare people. Those people are just journalists with no accurate knowledge of where the market is heading. The worst thing an investor can do is listen to anybuuma being because of human bias, and human bias figures into investment equations will add to the odds of poor performance.

It only takes 15 large capitalization stocks to have a well diversified portfolio due to systemic and non-systemic risks. Whatever your thinking about the markets, just when you think it’s goinf to zig, it zags. Put your crystal ball away, people.
flagooner
6 years ago
But bitcoin is a sure think.
MackTruck
6 years ago
^^^ yes
CJKent (Banned)
6 years ago
Papi;
The Stock Market is the Greatest Ponzi Scheme and Pyramid Scam for Elites to take others people money. Crony capitalism at its worst.
Math doesn’t lie, look at the numbers.
Daddillac
6 years ago
I make my money off the stock market. I have owned a financial planning firm and Registered Investment Advisory firm for more than 25 years. The last place I would look for any accurate information about the market is here
Lil_Baller100
6 years ago
nigga my stocks been fucked up as shit. made some shitty investments cause this guy on wall street promised to hook me up with some dope ass coke if i bought that stock.

i got kinda fucked but his coke is the shit so its alright.
Lone_Wolf
6 years ago
Baby-boomers retiring in mass taking money out of the market instead of putting it in is playing a role.
Mate27
6 years ago
Truth from Dadillac!

Baby boomers still need money invested in the markets throughout their lifetime, so that theory about them retiring and making withdrawals is full of holes since the majority of investments in equities are done by the institutional side. Follow the money, and cash flows are still strong. What else does a person invest in for a lifetime, SJG’s organization? Maybe gold? How about storing underneath your mattress? Yeah, try that bitcoin thing!

Hearing people put a negative spin every time the market drops reminds me of the 2001(9-11) and 2008(financial crisis) fear Mongering tactics. In hindsight those were just minor blips if you look at them now, which in turn only created an excellent buying opportunity. Fast forward 20 years from today and the DOW will be nearing 100k. The only thing is nobody will remember because humans have short memories and they tend to feel the swings downward instead of the euphoria of a rising tide. I sure hope the market crashes. I need to buy more of it for the eventual rebound.
Daddillac
6 years ago
Secular markets are a string of business cycles. From 1968 to 1982 we were in a secular bear, adjusted for inflation the market was flat..... 1982 to 2000 the market was in a secular bull, market went straight up, there was a crash in 87 and a recession in 92, but the general direction was up. 2000 to 2015 we were in a secular bear. I think we are at ghs beginning of a long bull run. Even in a bull market the stock market can and will lose 20 percent of its highs. In orderly markets a 20 percent correction is expected.
Warrenboy75
6 years ago
The stock market has treated me very well over the years and for the most part I do not try and time the ups and downs but I do try and pay attention to what I see in every day life --for one thing there were plenty of signs in 2008 we were headed for a downturn if people were paying attention.

What was different about 2008/2009 is that every sector got nailed. I had moved a fair amount of my profits into muni bonds thinking I would be safe........they weren't.

As for the reference to GM sorry but after what the previous president did which the media ignored for the most part with GM I wouldn't touch that company with someone else's money........betting on GM is worse than a ponzi scheme.
twentyfive
6 years ago
^ I had a friend that was during GM over the downgrading of their preffered stock issue being subordinate to the bailout of 2008/9 he had several hundred thousands of dollars just wiped out, within three days, as a result of that I’d never touch GM stock or bonds.
But right now we’re in for a bit of a rough ride in the overall market, I think it’s a time to just pull back and take your profits off the table, maybe look at some real estate and private equity if you’re an accredited investor.
Mate27
6 years ago
^^^ Good tips for those in the $300k+ club with wealth to protect.

For the juice box 69 crowd, they shouldonkt try to make more of an income and invest as much intibtge m
Mate27
6 years ago
... as they can into the markets since they’re not an accredited investor.

Hell im not even accredited and I have been at this for 2 decades. A million dollars doesn’t get you as far as it used to these days. This broke ass nigga might have to move to South Dakota to retire if
jackslash
6 years ago
I've put all my money in strippers' thongs. It has yielded a great return.
flagooner
6 years ago
LOL
flagooner
6 years ago
My research tells me that you'll make a killing if you buy on Tuesdays and Fridays. Sell on Mondays and Thursdays.
rickdugan
6 years ago
The market is volatile because of a high degree of uncertainty.

On the one hand, corporate earning are excellent, as too are the current U.S. economic numbers. Under normal circumstances, the market would continue to chug along nicely under these conditions.

But other factors are raising doubt. The economies of many of our trading partners are slowing down, which threatens to drag us down too. The prospect of a further escalation of the trade war with China, our largest trading partner by far, is looming. The Fed is giving signs that it intends to keep raising interest rates, despite the effects of previous rate hikes already being seen in the housing and auto sales markets.

Sadly, I wouldn't expect the volatility to decrease anytime soon as it is going to take some time for many of these uncertainties to shake out.
Warrenboy75
6 years ago
A million really isn't a million anymore...........
twentyfive
6 years ago
^a million is still a million it just doesn’t buy as much as it did ;)
Reality check for the rest, most people don’t have a million dollars accumulated it’s still an accomplishment.
twentyfive
6 years ago
This is according to a CNBC report from 2017

There were 9.4 million individuals with a net worth of $1 million to $5 million, 1.3 million individuals with a net worth of $5 million to $25 million and 156,000 households worth more than $25 million, the report says.

So anyway you slice it up that is still less than 5% of the population as a whole. Less than 11 million folks in a population of 325-350 million.
Warrenboy75
6 years ago
I always say the 50 dollar bill is really the new 20 as well........especially when you pay with one and the merchant looks at you as if you are 2/3 nuts........It's like what can you really buy with a 20 anymore ( besides a lapdance) :--)
CJKent (Banned)
6 years ago
Papi;
It is called Market Manipulation.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wdqGS0RWl…

It takes advantage of people’s greed and beliefs.

It is considerated illegal, but is done anyway.

And ther are even more manipulations that are hidden from people by The Big Players that control and manipulate The Stock Market.
flagooner
6 years ago
There can't be much yoyoing in the stock market.

The largest manufacturer is Duncan Toys Company and they are a part of Nordic Group of Companies, a private conglomerate.
daddyfatsack
6 years ago
Markets do not like unpredictability. That's why your company, if publicly traded, puts such a big emphasis on forecasting. Now knowing that and understanding the spastastic nature of current government officials you can understand why the yoyoing is happening. This elementary version of macroeconomics has been brought to you by daddyfatsack aka Mr give ya mom's backshots on the kitchen counter
Warrenboy75
6 years ago
^twentyfive......yes, I use those same figures which has always surprised me which is why I never claim to be a 1%er--I tend to look at wealth more so than income as a true barometer.
san_jose_guy
6 years ago
Its mostly just how much a company is perceived as being worth. You have the history of balance sheets. But then there is also the issue of market and economic stability, and of interest rates. The greater the stability and the lower the interest rates, the longer the time span over which this worth can be counted. Is it better to buy an existing company, or to start a new one? Depends on the price, and on the time span in which you're looking for your returns.

But then there is also just this issue of anticipating the future, and what is generally called the price to earnings ratio. And this is where the real Ponzi factor comes into play.

Here, 90 years of 12 month P to E ratios for the S and P. It varies much much more than the stock market indices do. And it really is not based on much of anything except hype. So it is funded by tax cuts, by boosting, and by and by an ever expanding wealth gap.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2577/sp-500-…

And then as our industrial economy serves very soft needs, tremendous recessions are possible, at the same time that consumption and investment levels are being driven by the Ponzi factor, and that looping back all the way around to the balance sheets. So we have now a Pozni economy.

If you bet on an athletic contest they give you odds. Well in the stock markets, instead of odds, you have the current price. And that is largely determined by the professional managers of the pension, insurance, and hedge funds. So if you trade, you are in effect betting against them, betting that you know more than they do. Its like betting against the US Weather Service. You don't know more than they do. There is no way that you could, not without committing the felony of insider trading.

So why worry about these markets at all? People want to believe that they can time them, and so this is why most little guys end up buying high and selling low.

My involvement in stock markets is exactly what it is for athletic contests, horse races, casinos, and the California Lottery, ZERO!

Papi, you seem like a heads up guy. Why not put your money into something that you can do, and do with a circle of close associates. Likely you will make money, but even if you don't, the experience will be extremely rewarding and will leave you well prepared for a next venture.

Completely counter productive to try and time the stock market. Well with your own venture you get in, and you stay in until what happens happens. You don't try to time it, but instead you work with your associates and actually apply your own skills in trying to make things work. Most businesses which are not funded by outside speculators do succeed. So usually it is just a matter of figuring out how to lower the entry costs enough to make it happen.

Our high stock market is not a sign of optimism, it is a sign of fatalism. People put money into the stock market because they don't see there as being anything better to do with it.

SJG

In a Historic First, Senate Advances Bill to End U.S. Support for Illegal War in Yemen
https://www.democracynow.org/2018/11/29/…

Dec 7th 1941, a date which will live in infamy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YhtuMrMV…

Frijid Pink - House of the Rising Sun
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t40INnb6…

April Wine - I Like to Rock (Official Music Video) ( Couple of little snippets from other songs in this )
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YlcY_enz…

Rare Earth - I Know I'm Losing You (full version) ( first White act signed by Motown.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F28X8--2…

Does this apply to Donald Trump? Germany already has War Crimes indictments against George W. Bush and Donald Rumsfeld?

"
Universal jurisdiction is the principle that some crimes are so heinous that the courts of any country can and in certain cases must take jurisdiction over them. Universal jurisdiction is international law’s response to the spectacle of tyrants and torturers who cover themselves at home with immunity and impunity. It is the principle that led to the arrest, for instance, of Chilean General Augusto Pinochet when he traveled to London. It’s the principle under which the former dictator of Chad, Hissène Habré, was prosecuted in Senegal.
"

https://www.democracynow.org/2018/11/29/…
Mate27
6 years ago
Look, stfu SJG! The reason why markets are volatile is due to massive borrowing, even by overseas governments in dollar denominated assets. When the US dollar rises as it has lately, due partly to rising rates, that makes other currencies less valuable and those countries need to use their currency to pay back US dollars. This is the uncertainty surrounding the rising rate environment and other agencies defaulting on loans originated with the US dollar. It’s the main reason why Trump is such an asshole to Fed Pres Powell and his rhetoric about continuing rate hikes through 2019. If he signals another hint at pausing future rate hikes, it could be game in for equities again. Buy! Buy! Buy! Hello! Hello!
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