So I've been getting caught up on the theory of Bitcoin lately, and even made a moderate investment in a competing cryptocoin. My question though to those who know the space well is:
What would happen if a government were to adopt cryptocurrencies, but just go ahead with their own version. (Doesn't seem hard to invent them: looks like there are literally hundreds of variants out there.) Or maybe adopt an existing one, but hard fork the blockchain, so as to avoid the "founders" of the coin collecting the fees on all global transactions or give early adopter an advantages?
Seems something like that would actually crash the price.
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last commentDon't think it would. The invention of Bitcoin was to be able to exchange currency anonymously. How could you do it anonymously if the government controlled it? Especially a currency that is digital which would be the easiest of all currencies to track?
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Doug I know nothing about bitcoin nor care to.But if the one trillion dollar infrastructure bill is passed what stocks would you invest in?
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The whole point of cryptocurrency (at least what part of it the market favors right now) is that there is no banking control and no government control.
The "bug" with current online payments with tradition payment methods and traditional bank deposit accounts, is the gov't or the merchant bank can step in a confiscate your property (eg, black market sales or adult sales in the case of PayPal). Plus the percentages they all skim off each transaction.
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Originally they were meant to be anonymous, but it seems there are varying degrees of anonymity. :-)
I don't think the government would ever back one that was completely anonymous such that they would not be able to collect taxes on them. That actually factored into my decision of which coin to invest in. I'm thinking some anonymity is good for a cryptocoin, but too much will hurt it.
BTC is generally deemed to have too little privacy. Even the Bank of Canada (i.e. the government!) said so. Others many have much: Monero and DASH + derivatives.
So I'm thinking the government would prefer to adopt one with just the right amount of privacy. Which might mean creating their one (e.g. tell the NSA to come up with something) or tweaking an existing one.
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@Dominic: that's what I'm thinking. If a crypto currency starts looking like a threat to fiat currencies, the government might just decide to get ahead of the problem and throw its weight behind something it sees as less of a threat. And I do think a government backed currency would carry enormous weight.
So the USG says we are introducing USCryptoCoin we will put a floor under price, and we back this protocol, which researchers and the NSA have reviewed, and here are the standards. And we'll back banks accepting it but no other crypto coin. Oh yeah, and we are starting a brand new block, since we don't want original creators to control the thing forever.
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@dice: Do you think the infrastructure bill will go ahead? It would be nice if it does, and he also start building nukes and building up the military. I think you can buy almost anything and it will soar if that happens (especially domestic small cap). But I'm not liking the odds anymore.
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Don't forget that there is nothing stopping any government from declaring a currency that isn't backed not legal tender, and if there is no underlying backing it becomes worthless.
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Bitcoin is nothing more than a barter system, built on paper mache.
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@25: Agree, part of my thesis, that they could declare only USCryptoCurrency legal tender and then start a campaign to make other currencies illegal and shunned. (Only drug dealer and terrorists use OtherCrypoCoin.)
It think you are also implying they might back no crypto currency. Not even one of their own and just tell existing payment system to get their shit together security wise. (But not secure from the taxman, of course. :-) )
I think the other coins would still have some black market value, but only amongst those willing to barter with illegal goods and services. (Including the illegal service of getting coins in out of this hypothetical situation.)
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skibum is against it? Well that makes feel more confident about it.
This is one of the few time I almost regret tormenting poor RickyBoy to the point where he put me on ignore. I would love to hear his thoughts on the matter. So I could take an opposite investment positions, of course. :-)
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Great basis for financial decisions Doug. What are your bitcoins worth when no one else will accept them? Exactly.
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@Dougster if we go to a pure barter system why bother with the complications of a crypto currency? It seems like a lot of effort to do the same thing.
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twentyfive and skibum609: the value of BTC was first established in 2010 when laszlo traded 10,000 BTC for 2 pizzas. At that point the initial exchange rate and trust was 10,000 BTC = 2 Pizzas. And we went from there. :)
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Dougster, yes, anonymity. I agree that's important. Equally important is the BLOCKCHAIN register, which keeps us all honest, and pseudo-anonymous.
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@Dominic I'm not saying bitcoin have no value ,I'm just posing a question that if I shovel the snow from your driveway so you can get to your pizza shop do you owe me two pizzas ? If that's the case why do I need all of the complicated bookkeeping that is associated with crypto and without a market maker how can I trust that bookkeeping to be square and not self dealing ?
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It all depends on what you mean by "government." Cryptocurrencies are cryptographic because the users of the currency value privacy. And, due to this fact, the currency must be decentralized. Perhaps a fully decentralized and distributed government could successfully adopt a cryptocurrency. I nominate Bitcoin.
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Bitcoin is a giant scam designed to use people's greed and desire for anonymity to get them to use their own REAL money to purchase large amounts of computing capacity, provide the infrastructure for that computing (power, local storage, network connectivity), and turn the computing capacity over to someone else's control (face it, you don't have one fucking clue as to what that Bitcoin mining program or Bitcoin storage program is really doing while it's running on your computer).
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joc13, when are you going to stop talking out of your asshole?
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I don't understand bitcoin. It seems to be a medium of exchange that can be hidden from government eyes, and so might be useful for drug dealers and other criminals. But my criminal activities are pretty minimal. Why would I want to mess with bitcoin when I have US dollars? What would be the value of bitcoins if people stopped accepting them?
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"@Dominic I'm not saying bitcoin have no value ,I'm just posing a question that if I shovel the snow from your driveway so you can get to your pizza shop do you owe me two pizzas ? If that's the case why do I need all of the complicated bookkeeping that is associated with crypto and without a market maker how can I trust that bookkeeping to be square and not self dealing ?"
Bitcoin was invented incase you DON'T want 2 pizzas you can have this currency to spend as you please somewhere else.
"I don't understand bitcoin. It seems to be a medium of exchange that can be hidden from government eyes, and so might be useful for drug dealers and other criminals. But my criminal activities are pretty minimal. Why would I want to mess with bitcoin when I have US dollars? What would be the value of bitcoins if people stopped accepting them?"
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Well Dominic in 1999 Mci Worldcom was worth 185 Billion. In 2002? Zero. A buddy of mine still has 100,00 shares he uses as toilet paper. Bitcoins won't even be usable for that.
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@shailynn apologies for dumbing down the question too much, I am a fairly knowledgeable individual with respect to markets and how they work, the question asked was really how do you have faith in a currency that has no recognizable trader or placeholder as you will? I actually bought a few bit coins a few weeks ago hoping to gain a better understanding, I have a target in mind and are prepared to sell pretty soon as I have no desire to take the ride long term, what I am planning is to sell, out to the amount of my original investment, plus 15% and let the balance ride for a while as a pure spec play.
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Ah, but Bitcoin definitely has advantages that real money doesn't. For instance, I recently wanted to do a transfer of the Saturday of a long weekend. Guess what? I was SOL until the banks opened again on Tuesday. If I had Bitcoin, could have got it done in an hour. 24/7. Money would "never sleep". Plus there is all the opportunity to cut out middle men fees.
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@skidum: Well you thinks stocks are a bubble, because that gets preached to right wing nut cases and you have no mind of your own to judge independently.
And as I said above cryptocurrencies should always have the value of some percentage of the black market economy as their floor for market cap.
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Also crypto currencies include ethereum in which people are basically get paid for the computations their computers do. That's a pretty solid foundation, IMO. Just too bad they rushed it a bit, and the security model needs work.
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@Dougster black market by definition is in regulated and mostly undefined by nature how would that work a crypto having a percentage for a floor?
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I'm saying that there will always be demand for crypto currencies on the black market no matter what governments do. So that means that the market cap of all crypto currencies has some floor under it. Approximately whatever the size of the black market is to regular economies.
If you believe it will be black market only then some altcoins are particularly well suited for that and those would be the ones to buy. Or you could play one that tries to play both sides of the fence.
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