I'll inject just a little reality into this discussion and call it now: who the fuck knows?
We've already had two Trump tweets the caused drops in specific stocks (Boeing and Lockheed-Martin). They were transient, but who knows what will happen in the future?
That said, if the markets adjust to unpredictable tweets and wait for actual indications of policy changes maybe all will be ok. Of course, that also depends on the policies, which are also in the "who knows?" zone.
So I hope for the best and expect the worst. That way I won't be disappointed. ;)
I know it is easy to be right when you say "who knows?" but that is the best we can say.
The dow drops below 15,000 when people begin to freak out about Putin and Trump, the two poorly hung men, yammer on about nukes. I would love to see the dow lose more, but life is seldom fair.
I'd be happy with a measly 9% (which is what I'm told to average YTY). Higher is even better. I have no practical way to estimate a real number, sorry.
I've called for higher highs since I joined, and the only thing you've typed about the markets is that you hope they crash, no matter at what level....
It is better for the economic health of our nation, and just better for our society if they crash. The sooner the better, because then the size of the bust will be smaller.
But I am not claiming to know when that will happen. I know it will eventually .
Jim G., you should have lived in the days of Calvin Coolidge.
Nothing of the sort. And CNN is quite conservative media. I just have lived through enough of these boom and bust cycles after Reagan took us off of Keynesianism, to be able to see the effects. What makes the booms higher and the busts deeper and the overall effects more negative are things like Fox boosting for the booms.
Keynesian economics is what causes booms and busts due to overextending the money supply. But that's not what CNN tells you, right? Or Is it Rachek Maddow from msnbc?
Was Rachel Maddow you're ex-wife who dumped you after getting her show on liberal media?
@skihomo609: Actually I think Trump has a really good idea there. Our nuclear arsenal is in serious need of an upgrade, and building up while the US economy is booming and Russia's is in the toilet will give us a great advantage over them. Not to mention all the other contenders in the world.
^
It's ironic that you mentioned that Dougster. I was just reading articles where Trump and Putin both talked about rebuilding the nukes. My first thought was how the USSR went broke and consequently broke up because of trying to keep up with Reagan's policies.
Also Trump is a good guy to play that hand too. I'm convinced that he is a sane guy who acts like he is crazy. (Unlike Cruz who was a genuine nutjob.) Sane guy who acts like he crazy is exactly what is called for when it comes to controlling nukes and making the Ruskies and others shit their pants. (He'll need to back up this image with some real military action early on... Maybe follow Peter Quinn's advice regarding Raqqa and ISIS?)
You guys know this is a temporary run up for the holidays and end of the year. A little bit of election fanfare thrown in. Happens same time every year just to make Wall St look good.
Market correction will happen just after inauguration. Take your profit before then.It will hit 20k before then,and readjust to 17k.
I'm sort of optimistic I don't believe this bull has reached the electric fence just yet, waiting till after the inauguration, than I'll evaluate it a bit more. I think we need to wait till the rubber hits the road before any conclusions can be firmed up for 2017.
I'll go with the elliotician I follow the most 2500 or bust in 2017 or 2017ish, then a 50% fibonacci retracement of this several year rise down to 1600ish between 2017 to 2020, then several boom years rallying sky high. Going up to 5000 or 6000 or higher if I remember correctly by 2035.
I'm hoping the market doesn't top out in January and do the retracement sooner from a lower level. It may depend on how a Trump card gets played. :)
Trump will need to deliver on his economic promises or reality will set in for this latest rally sooner or later. I believe we could get to 2500.
If I added 20% to the breakout level I get around 2580. I think we can get there in 2017. I think the surprise will be that it's only partially about Trump though, so I would buy the dips if there are some disappointments in what he delivers. Although, at the end of the day, he didn't need anybody's help to win, so should have a very strong mandate to just can anyone who isn't co-operating with his plans.
One possible surprise could be natural disasters. I read last night a super volcano in Italy was becoming active and might erupt but no one knows when or it's not on national news. Over a million people will likel die in an instant and possibly millions more from crop failures around the world whenever it blows whether that is next year or 5 or 10 years from now. California could have a mega earthquake too. Supposedly Edgar Cayce predicted a big quake in California around 3 months after a major eruption in Italy. Famine, earthquakes, global famine, that could all throw a wrench in the march towards 2500 next year. Then again, doomsday preppers who stocked up could easily ride out one or two years of chaos or famine unless millions of hungry people took guns and invaded everywhere to get whatever supplies they found or were willing to die in the process. It would be hard to fight off a thousand hungry armed people desperate for your supplies. Hopefully no major disasters happen. I'd rather forget about it and visit strip clubs. Stupid super volcanos.
It might be a good investment to stock up on survival food and weapons and or a bunker because if the mainstream media is keeping quiet about a super volcano getting ready to erupt, that can't be good. If food prices skyrocket, survival rations lasting a year or two might be a real good investment. However I have no idea how long global crop failures due to freezing temps around the world might last. Maybe if Obama tells the Italians to tax the crap out of their super volcano because it will be spewing tons of co2 and greenhouse gases out when it erupts, we will all be saved when the sun gets blocked out for a few years and crops freeze or don't grow. Sarcasm. Freezing temperatures can cause mass extinctions. Super volcanos have done that several times. Forget worrying about the global temperature possibility gong up half a degree. I'm totally unprepared.
Supposedly it's now Liberasl who are shitting their pants over Trump and stocking up on guns and other survival supplies to survive the coming TRUMPOCALYPSE!
Here's a link in case you thought I as joking.
It's not as scary as another source. The media doesn't want people to panic.
Half a million. People live in the caldera I read on another site.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/trevornace/2…
Back on topic, things could go well in 2017, then all hell breaks lose with the volcano erupting and a 9.8 hitting California within months of the super volcano. Stocks could plunge down to 1600 or lower as people think it's the end of the world. The sun might be mostly blocked out and Cliafornia would have power issues even before the earthquake with solar cells not getting enough sunlight. Could the market drop below 1600? Yes.
This discussion will seem pointless if we're worried about survival instead of making money.
Strippers might accept food for tips though.
Of course he never tires of being wrong Dougster. All SJG has is enemies, so it's status quo to maintain himself as an agitator trolling any internet board with his ramblings of counter culture.
SJG is nothing but a creepy Jack ass troll. F2f I would handle this differently, but on the computer he can get away with being a jerk!
"The chance that the S & P 500 dips to 1600" is about the same as SJG is to building an organization that is recognizable by anyone other than counter culture fags!
In 2007 and even early 2008, I once thought the chance that the S & P dropping to 667 was zero to none. It happened. It was the best buying opportunity for decades too. Some were forecasting a drop to 400 or less if our financial system didn't collapse first. I believe we will have more crisis develop in our future so that someone takes advantage of it all. On the positive side, if Trump and the republicans are really successful, maybe the s & p goes to 3000 in only a few years.
Idea-- the markets will rise during 1Q. Then, when reality sets in, the markets will return gains. Inflation will increase. Interest rates will rise. Fixed income investments will fall. Fixed income investments will sell off. Gold will rise. Stocks will restore losses and end the year slightly higher.
Dougster, what I have said is not wrong. People do better putting their money into things that they and close associates control, investing their money and talents together.
What you are promoting is very risky and much lower yield. It is also just a way of turning further control of the world over to the financial sector, making the rich richer and the poor poorer, making real work irrelevant. Just because you would benefit from that, does not mean that it is better for our society, or for anyone else.
And the idea that some handful of firms could control automation technology, AI, is preposterous, as is the idea that firms dealing in such can be known to be presently undervalued.
This kind of stuff, besides your calling people names, are reasons why we need to keep you on a choke chain.
And Gaffagain, I told you I have one tub full of a Sodium Bicarbonate solution and another full of vinegar. You need to soak your head, alternatingly in each tub.
44 comments
We've already had two Trump tweets the caused drops in specific stocks (Boeing and Lockheed-Martin). They were transient, but who knows what will happen in the future?
That said, if the markets adjust to unpredictable tweets and wait for actual indications of policy changes maybe all will be ok. Of course, that also depends on the policies, which are also in the "who knows?" zone.
So I hope for the best and expect the worst. That way I won't be disappointed. ;)
I know it is easy to be right when you say "who knows?" but that is the best we can say.
Otherwise I, you, and everyone here ought to have better ways of applying our talents and abilities.
SJG
SJG
Everyone hates you.
But I am not claiming to know when that will happen. I know it will eventually .
Jim G., you should have lived in the days of Calvin Coolidge.
SJG
SJG
Was Rachel Maddow you're ex-wife who dumped you after getting her show on liberal media?
It's ironic that you mentioned that Dougster. I was just reading articles where Trump and Putin both talked about rebuilding the nukes. My first thought was how the USSR went broke and consequently broke up because of trying to keep up with Reagan's policies.
Market correction will happen just after inauguration. Take your profit before then.It will hit 20k before then,and readjust to 17k.
https://www.google.com/amp/www.cnbc.com/…
Trump will need to deliver on his economic promises or reality will set in for this latest rally sooner or later. I believe we could get to 2500.
It's not as scary as another source. The media doesn't want people to panic.
Half a million. People live in the caldera I read on another site.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/trevornace/2…
This discussion will seem pointless if we're worried about survival instead of making money.
Strippers might accept food for tips though.
SJG
Stones, Hand of Fate
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKH9enYi…
SJG is nothing but a creepy Jack ass troll. F2f I would handle this differently, but on the computer he can get away with being a jerk!
Lolol :D
Idea-- the markets will rise during 1Q. Then, when reality sets in, the markets will return gains. Inflation will increase. Interest rates will rise. Fixed income investments will fall. Fixed income investments will sell off. Gold will rise. Stocks will restore losses and end the year slightly higher.
What you are promoting is very risky and much lower yield. It is also just a way of turning further control of the world over to the financial sector, making the rich richer and the poor poorer, making real work irrelevant. Just because you would benefit from that, does not mean that it is better for our society, or for anyone else.
And the idea that some handful of firms could control automation technology, AI, is preposterous, as is the idea that firms dealing in such can be known to be presently undervalued.
This kind of stuff, besides your calling people names, are reasons why we need to keep you on a choke chain.
And Gaffagain, I told you I have one tub full of a Sodium Bicarbonate solution and another full of vinegar. You need to soak your head, alternatingly in each tub.
SJG
100 boobie squeeze challenge
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QAHkzCHj…
Touch her breast by many people and earn money
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uDguzVYZ…
VINE PARTY best boob vines 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGqYYKxM…