[OT] Are we in a Boom or a Recession?

More and more these booms tend to have little job impact. But the bigger the booms, the bigger the busts. No good comes from this type of economics.

SJG

What's the unemployment rate in Silicon Valley, SJG? NYC is about 5%. Seattle about 4%. Curious about Silicon Valley. I'll go out on a limb and guess about 4% as well.

According to the newspapers it has crossed under 4%, and I know that this is rare, as 4% now is considered about the minimum.

And there is a rush hour traffic situation worse than during the dot com bubble. So some would say this is good.

But, restaurants and retail stores are going out of business and the number of homeless keeps increasing. So there is something strange about this bubble. Housing costs continue to increase, and this is part of the problem.

But also, even without this strangeness, these bubbles are what create the busts. The only people who benefit are the financiers. Most everybody just wants to get out.

And these financiers means you and your Wagner friends in Bayreuth, what was not obtained by war is being obtained by politics.

youtube.com

More and more the people who do the work are just pawns, expendables.

SJG

I think retail stores are going out of business due to the rise of online shopping. Amazon in particular. As for restaurants, I know Seamless is big in NYC. How about in the Valley?

Don't know about seemless. But both the booms and the busts are bad. The booms cause the busts.

Each cycle leaves working people with less, as Dougster and his overlords rise.

SJG

@Che: yep, it was remarkable how little coverage Italy got on Friday. I almost said "surprising" but I'm so cynical about the financial media now, that I'm nearly on the verge of subscribing to conspiracy theories that they deliberately get things wrong. Almost but not quite there yet.

Hopefully it provides some good buying opportunities on SVXY and tech this month! Lots of stuff was in need of a pullback anyway.

@SJG: they just need to hang in there 10 years or so then basic income should start to kick in. It's almost tempting for me to say younger people shouldn't bother to save for retirement but spend it all on stripper instead, but not quite ready to make that statement yet. :-)

The other thing is that is doesn't necessarily mean Italy is going to pull out of the EU because of this vote although it raises the probability. I think EU disintegration is inevitable, but also well anticipated. The strong trends in tech will trump (no pun intended) even that. Good volatility for algorithms to feed on though!

That's right, basic income, or Citizenship Pay kicking in. Dougster and his friends in Bayreuth have got it all figured out. But what we know that they don't know that we know is that just like with welfare, their system is designed to dehumanize and control, part of separating the human race into two tiers.

So we must resist, and by Any Means Available.

SJG

Dougster, what you are suggesting with this Guaranteed Income or Citizenship Pay, has some similarity to Fordism. Paying workers more lets they afford to buy automobiles.

But Fordism is Corporate Paternalism, not Democracy.

Giving people a guaranteed minimum income is a necessity in an advanced industrial democracy, as there never will be jobs for everybody. And actually the requirements for having any job continue to increase. Most corporations won't take people that don't have good customer relations and communications skills. So we must have this economic floor. And I have read that Ontario is going to be putting one into place.

But this means nothing unless there are cost controls on housing and other necessities. And Welfare has always been intended to be this floor, but it never catches up.

Okay, but the similarity stops there. With Fordism, workers are being paid and paid well because they are valued.

With you Citizenship Pay system, it is obvious that you don't want these people to be a functioning part of the society. Rather, your Economic Floor is just a gimmick to keep people placated as internment camps and gas chambers are completed.

SJG

High heels always make the girl, TJ Street Girl i466.photobucket.com

@san_jose_guy “Fordism. Paying workers more lets they afford to buy automobiles.”

you fucktarded idiot. he didn’t give a shit about his employees being able to buy a car or about their financial well being. he paid them higher wages because that is what the market demanded. you can’t claim ignorance because you’re stupid through and through. by now you should know enough to shut the fuck up. but that will ever happen will it dumbass

“The myth: In 1914, Henry Ford doubled his workers’ pay from $2.34 to $5 a day, recognizing that paying people more would enable them to afford the cars they were producing.

The reality: At the time, workers could count on about $2.25 per day, for which they worked nine-hour shifts. It was pretty good money in those days, but the toll was too much for many to bear. Ford’s turnover rate was very high. In 1913, Ford hired more than 52,000 men to keep a workforce of only 14,000. New workers required a costly break-in period, making matters worse for the company. Also, some men simply walked away from the line to quit and look for a job elsewhere. Then the line stopped and production of cars halted. The increased cost and delayed production kept Ford from selling his cars at the low price he wanted. Drastic measures were necessary if he was to keep up this production.

And the pay: The $5-a-day rate was about half pay and half bonus. The bonus came with character requirements and was enforced by the Socialization Organization. This was a committee that would visit the employees’ homes to ensure that they were doing things the “American way.” They were supposed to avoid social ills such as gambling and drinking. They were to learn English, and many (primarily the recent immigrants) had to attend classes to become “Americanized.” Women were not eligible for the bonus unless they were single and supporting the family. Also, men were not eligible if their wives worked outside the home.”

Basic Income -- maybe a radical idea -- it put forth for different reasons than I think SJG is referring (please correct me if I am wrong!). The argument for BI, I believe, is as follows:

(1) Some academics studying the economy believe, through automation, and due to the projected future productivity gains of capitalism, we may be approaching a day in the future where only 1 in 10 people need to work or where only 1 in 10 will find gainful, productive, full-time, well-compensated employment. So what do we do with the other 9? Grim, if true. How "some academics" come to this "conclusion" is not clear. But there is evidence that automation may be leading us here. Maybe not a full 1 in 10. But something a lot worse than 19 in 20 (5% unemployment). It's possible, I guess. It still sounds like liberal/progressive imagination though.

(2) The current social programs have "wastes" dealing with enforcement. Aka nanny-monitoring, making sure the "right" recipients only do want we "want" them to do. "Some academics" suggest upwards of 50% of what is spent on the programs goes to enforcement. I have no idea how they get this figure. But if it's true, it would simply be cheaper for the tax payers, should we still want to continue the assistance, to just forgo enforcement (waste) and just had out cash. Here! Cash! Here!! Some recipients will be frugal and responsible (and get more for the $$ than govt ever will). Others will just spend it on vices or other crap. I guess which is worse? I don't know. I do know the waste is not doing anyone any good.

(3) A basic structure for basic income, is everyone gets a sum that is deemed "basic" income. Maybe the amount is $48K/year. Have pulse and you're a citizen? Here's your $923/wk. Buy your four walls. Is $48K enough for you? Then just sit idle. Want to work, but you're only worth 12/hrs week at minimum wage? No problem. You'll get your $923 from BI (surplus from everyone's combined capitalism activity) plus your $7x12=$84/wk. Maybe you're an artist. And artist work is undervalued? No problem, with Basic Income, you get your $923/wk and if your art makes any money, great, if not, it's no big deal. Maybe your talents aren't good enough for minimum wage. Ideally, with BI, we would repeal the minimum wage. Then 50 hours at $2/hr, gets you an extra $100. Cool!

Basically, basic income allows for participation in the labor market at lower than subsistence compensation rates. Also it avoids some of the wastes with the current entitlement programs (theoretically!).

Or if you're a lawyer who can earn $400K/yr, you can do that, too. You get your $48K (everyone does) and you can use your talents to earn more. Everyone can! Boom! $448K/yr for lawyers. (sarcasm .. stay with me)

I'm not convinced BI is a great idea, but it's better than what we have. The problem with LBJ's Great Society is that it -- based on my working with people in the charity work I do in the trenches -- is that it does seem make individuals, families, and generations less self reliant. It's an OK temporary safety net but it is problematic the longer people stay on it.

Somehow, I think the argument is, like Teddy Roosevelt's policies, Basic Income is capitalism's answer to avoiding a situation with an underclass and nasty under-employment, assuming a future where automation only requires 1 in 10 to work. Grim, if true.

Personally, I'm leaning more towards Mr. Reagan's work. The top taxpayers are getting tired of paying for the remnants of FDR's New Deal. The 90 Percent and 50 Percent rates are not coming back, ever. With declining tax revenues and rates, it is probably time to re-invigorate the libertarian ethic and wean the lower 2 quintiles off wealth redistribution, make the safety net a true-short-term safety net, and somehow increase self-reliance and personal savings (responsibility).

Mr. Trump's electoral college victory has made me think and read about a lot of things (lots of books, lately). Plus comments by dallas, skibum, rickdugan, juice, gammanu, and mikeya -- as well as many conservatives and libertarians near my wife's rural hometown -- have helped me reflect.

Peace.

To answer the OP. I think we are nearing a boom, though it may be a few years off. The millennials are just starting to really participate in the work force. For millennials and young Gen Xers, with Trump at the helm, now is the time. We may be starting a new boom and for those who work hard, buckle down, and adopt a libertarian work ethic, now is the time to get ready to compete against the "participation trophy" generation, buckle down, work hard, network with people, development those connections, get the skills and education, be persistent, live below your means, and pass by the trophy generation. Get on the Trump train. Now is the time. Get ready.

I vote a boom is coming. :) .. with interstitials of shallow recessions.

But when stevie-girl was on the board everyone thought the idea of us being in a boom was completely ridiculous.

I think there will be much less need for lawyers in the future. For one thing there is going to be a great deal more surveillance + automated detection which will deter crime in the first place. Also improving social conditions and basic income will be another factor reducing crime. I also see the existence of drunk drivers as RickyBoy admits to being a good argument for mandatory self driving cars.

Dominic77, No I see basic income the same way you do.

But, is it being done to make our society work, or is it being done to scape goat a cast of people so that they can be made the targets for the bogus sciences of Eugenics and Social Darwinism.

For democracy to work, it has to work for everyone and include everyone.

SJG

Just out of curiosity where does Basic Income come from ? Seems pretty basic to me SMH

From tax revenues. But remember, these matters are almost entirely artificial, so they can be manipulated to make it come out any way which is wanted.

SJG

and that means everyone has to make democracy work. No thiefs, murderers, hard drug addicts, welfare scammers, rioters. wife beaters, dead beat dads, gang members, guys like you, etc, etc, etc

Everyone wants to do well. It only becomes otherwise when there are things going seriously wrong in a persons life. And mikeya02, there must be something which is wrong in your life which makes you the way you are.

SJG

Get a fucking job idiot, and spend your own money on that shit, I need my money for important things like strippers and their out of work boyfriends.

What creates joblessness and poverty, besides industrialization, is social marginalization.

So people on welfare are just as much a part of our society as you are. And welfare money re-circulates, and makes up part of your income.

I have posted a bit of dissent from Domnic77. Overall I say that we need guaranteed income. But, I discent from Dougster, as he is just introducing this idea to quell dissent as he and his buddies convert us two a two tier society. He is being completely disingenuous, putting out the idea that you can just shut our a huge portion of the population.

SJG

more ED stuff youtube.com

@Dougster & @Meat are we due for a pullback or will the Dow actually soar past 20,000? Is there anyplace for bonds at the present time?

SJG, how is your 401K doing?

As I have said, I and my team of associates are investing our money in things which we actually control. You could say we are following the Elon Musk example.

And I say to everyone, don't give up on actually using your talents and abilities. This is what will make the center hold. You use your abilities and we all use ours, otherwise Dougster and his friends in Bayreuth will have us all in concentration camps. We will be receiving Citizenship Pay, but concentration camps are still concentration camps, and really these will be extermination camps.

SJG

Life has so much to offer, if we could just learn to appreciate it. farm6.staticflickr.com

shut the fuck up san_jose_guy you have no "team" and you have no money and you have no talents and you have no abilities. what you have is the restraining order from your ex-mail order bride and a failed life with no future

Just as I thought SJG. You like lots of money, but your great organization is only for a chosen few. Throwing hookers into the mix makes it sound weird as fuck

Yes, lots and lots of money, and by invitation only. Our people, especially the men, are held to very high standards. With the women we give them more time to see understand what it is about. farm6.staticflickr.com

But what we promote is not the Hate Based Right, it is Social Democracy, more downward wealth transfer, because it recirculates back up to pay people's salaries, and universal health care, housing, and higher education. We promote the benefits of the middle class, but not the reactionary identification systems.

:)

SJG

@25: Hard to say. Seemed to be more buying than there should be today. But Dow 20,000 is only 500 away. VIX did rise even as the market was up, but that might just be on the ECB. I have to think about these overnight.

If we keep rallying at this rate into inaguration day then it will be buy the rumor sell the news.

"shut the fuck up san_jose_guy you have no "team" and you have no money and you have no talents and you have no abilities. what you have is the restraining order from your ex-mail order bride and a failed life with no future"

First prize! Comment of the day! LOL

25, I believe there will always be smaller pullbacks like the one we saw earlier this year around January/February. We won't see any major pull back until 2018 when tightening of the money supply really chokes growth and cautions investors. Why risk $$ in stocks when you can get a guaranteed risk free rate in bonds and fixed investments start rising in their rates?

But alas the timing of this will be difficult and the effects brief. After a period of a year or two shaking out rising rates it will be risk on again, as inflation tides will have normalized.

I always say if you're scared and don't know how to allocate then go 50%\50% stocks and fixed investments. Even throughout a longer time horizon that allocation outpaces inflation and keeps people invested without jumping around and worrying.

@ meat I'm not scared I just am curious to get your take on it I appreciate your thoughts my own take on it is that there will be a bit of a pullback once the new president takes over because the idea that he is going to be able to just slide his agenda forward is wishful thinking. I hope he figures out how to shut up so stocks like Boeing don't get slammed every time he gets a burr under his saddle. I agree with you that as long as there is easy money (low interest rates) the bull is going to run. I think the time frame is less than two years though probably 14-16 months unless some unforeseen crises shortens the track.

Neither. If you can think only of two extremes, and not the 90% between them, you'll miss alot....

@25 ,14-16 months puts us squarely into the year 2018. Our predictions are similar.

The experts on TV say buy gold and silver now. Anyone here buy that?

I bought silver at $14 about a year ago. I'll hold on a while.

TheeOSU, always with some shit. You repeat stuff that ignored trolls post, then they aren't giving you cover. Shut the Fuck Up, and go back to standing under your lamp post. There i'll be gay guys out there for you.

SJG

^^ Will you be one of those gay guys? CREEP!

For the record, i'm one of the guys that think you read TUSCL signed out and see everything guys on your ignored list say. You're just mad that you have to read the same thing twice! LOL

@TheeOSU "For the record, i'm one of the guys that think you read TUSCL signed out and see everything guys on your ignored list say."

ya think? lol. he is such a lloyd

Ok, some parts of the market are getting a bit silly now. I'm thinking of some small caps and some financials where the charts are vertical. People are definitely buying puts again. Caution in certain parts is warranted for the very short term, IMO.

Both the booms and the busts cause real pain, and nothing good. It is all just the wrong way to go.

peoplestribune.org

SJG

Capitalism is the worst possible system until you consider the alternatives.

The alternative is a functioning Democracy, and as things work out, this will almost always be a Social Democracy. We get that once people stop trying to blame social problems on the poor.

SJG