[OT] Are we in a Boom or a Recession?
Looking back at an amusing thread from Feb, 2016 I missed during my six month break from TUSCL
https://www.tuscl.net/postread.php?PID=4…
RickBoy: "I don't know about anyone else, but I am convinced that we are either in a recession or heading into one."
Now I, of course, have been saying from some time that we are currently early in the greatest economic boom in world history and I have take an enormous amount of heat for it.
Now alot has happened since Feb 2016, so my question is: What are people's current feelings? Are we in or about to experience a recession soon or a we in a boom?
https://www.tuscl.net/postread.php?PID=4…
RickBoy: "I don't know about anyone else, but I am convinced that we are either in a recession or heading into one."
Now I, of course, have been saying from some time that we are currently early in the greatest economic boom in world history and I have take an enormous amount of heat for it.
Now alot has happened since Feb 2016, so my question is: What are people's current feelings? Are we in or about to experience a recession soon or a we in a boom?
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44 comments
SJG
And there is a rush hour traffic situation worse than during the dot com bubble. So some would say this is good.
But, restaurants and retail stores are going out of business and the number of homeless keeps increasing. So there is something strange about this bubble. Housing costs continue to increase, and this is part of the problem.
But also, even without this strangeness, these bubbles are what create the busts. The only people who benefit are the financiers. Most everybody just wants to get out.
And these financiers means you and your Wagner friends in Bayreuth, what was not obtained by war is being obtained by politics.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G7NVob7y…
More and more the people who do the work are just pawns, expendables.
SJG
Each cycle leaves working people with less, as Dougster and his overlords rise.
SJG
Hopefully it provides some good buying opportunities on SVXY and tech this month! Lots of stuff was in need of a pullback anyway.
So we must resist, and by Any Means Available.
SJG
But Fordism is Corporate Paternalism, not Democracy.
Giving people a guaranteed minimum income is a necessity in an advanced industrial democracy, as there never will be jobs for everybody. And actually the requirements for having any job continue to increase. Most corporations won't take people that don't have good customer relations and communications skills. So we must have this economic floor. And I have read that Ontario is going to be putting one into place.
But this means nothing unless there are cost controls on housing and other necessities. And Welfare has always been intended to be this floor, but it never catches up.
Okay, but the similarity stops there. With Fordism, workers are being paid and paid well because they are valued.
With you Citizenship Pay system, it is obvious that you don't want these people to be a functioning part of the society. Rather, your Economic Floor is just a gimmick to keep people placated as internment camps and gas chambers are completed.
SJG
High heels always make the girl, TJ Street Girl
http://i466.photobucket.com/albums/rr23/…
you fucktarded idiot. he didn’t give a shit about his employees being able to buy a car or about their financial well being. he paid them higher wages because that is what the market demanded. you can’t claim ignorance because you’re stupid through and through. by now you should know enough to shut the fuck up. but that will ever happen will it dumbass
“The myth:
In 1914, Henry Ford doubled his workers’ pay from $2.34 to $5 a day, recognizing that paying people more would enable them to afford the cars they were producing.
The reality:
At the time, workers could count on about $2.25 per day, for which they worked nine-hour shifts. It was pretty good money in those days, but the toll was too much for many to bear. Ford’s turnover rate was very high. In 1913, Ford hired more than 52,000 men to keep a workforce of only 14,000. New workers required a costly break-in period, making matters worse for the company. Also, some men simply walked away from the line to quit and look for a job elsewhere. Then the line stopped and production of cars halted. The increased cost and delayed production kept Ford from selling his cars at the low price he wanted. Drastic measures were necessary if he was to keep up this production.
And the pay:
The $5-a-day rate was about half pay and half bonus. The bonus came with character requirements and was enforced by the Socialization Organization. This was a committee that would visit the employees’ homes to ensure that they were doing things the “American way.” They were supposed to avoid social ills such as gambling and drinking. They were to learn English, and many (primarily the recent immigrants) had to attend classes to become “Americanized.” Women were not eligible for the bonus unless they were single and supporting the family. Also, men were not eligible if their wives worked outside the home.”
(1) Some academics studying the economy believe, through automation, and due to the projected future productivity gains of capitalism, we may be approaching a day in the future where only 1 in 10 people need to work or where only 1 in 10 will find gainful, productive, full-time, well-compensated employment. So what do we do with the other 9? Grim, if true. How "some academics" come to this "conclusion" is not clear. But there is evidence that automation may be leading us here. Maybe not a full 1 in 10. But something a lot worse than 19 in 20 (5% unemployment). It's possible, I guess. It still sounds like liberal/progressive imagination though.
(2) The current social programs have "wastes" dealing with enforcement. Aka nanny-monitoring, making sure the "right" recipients only do want we "want" them to do. "Some academics" suggest upwards of 50% of what is spent on the programs goes to enforcement. I have no idea how they get this figure. But if it's true, it would simply be cheaper for the tax payers, should we still want to continue the assistance, to just forgo enforcement (waste) and just had out cash. Here! Cash! Here!! Some recipients will be frugal and responsible (and get more for the $$ than govt ever will). Others will just spend it on vices or other crap. I guess which is worse? I don't know. I do know the waste is not doing anyone any good.
(3) A basic structure for basic income, is everyone gets a sum that is deemed "basic" income. Maybe the amount is $48K/year. Have pulse and you're a citizen? Here's your $923/wk. Buy your four walls. Is $48K enough for you? Then just sit idle. Want to work, but you're only worth 12/hrs week at minimum wage? No problem. You'll get your $923 from BI (surplus from everyone's combined capitalism activity) plus your $7x12=$84/wk. Maybe you're an artist. And artist work is undervalued? No problem, with Basic Income, you get your $923/wk and if your art makes any money, great, if not, it's no big deal. Maybe your talents aren't good enough for minimum wage. Ideally, with BI, we would repeal the minimum wage. Then 50 hours at $2/hr, gets you an extra $100. Cool!
Basically, basic income allows for participation in the labor market at lower than subsistence compensation rates. Also it avoids some of the wastes with the current entitlement programs (theoretically!).
Or if you're a lawyer who can earn $400K/yr, you can do that, too. You get your $48K (everyone does) and you can use your talents to earn more. Everyone can! Boom! $448K/yr for lawyers. (sarcasm .. stay with me)
I'm not convinced BI is a great idea, but it's better than what we have. The problem with LBJ's Great Society is that it -- based on my working with people in the charity work I do in the trenches -- is that it does seem make individuals, families, and generations less self reliant. It's an OK temporary safety net but it is problematic the longer people stay on it.
Somehow, I think the argument is, like Teddy Roosevelt's policies, Basic Income is capitalism's answer to avoiding a situation with an underclass and nasty under-employment, assuming a future where automation only requires 1 in 10 to work. Grim, if true.
Personally, I'm leaning more towards Mr. Reagan's work. The top taxpayers are getting tired of paying for the remnants of FDR's New Deal. The 90 Percent and 50 Percent rates are not coming back, ever. With declining tax revenues and rates, it is probably time to re-invigorate the libertarian ethic and wean the lower 2 quintiles off wealth redistribution, make the safety net a true-short-term safety net, and somehow increase self-reliance and personal savings (responsibility).
Mr. Trump's electoral college victory has made me think and read about a lot of things (lots of books, lately). Plus comments by dallas, skibum, rickdugan, juice, gammanu, and mikeya -- as well as many conservatives and libertarians near my wife's rural hometown -- have helped me reflect.
Peace.
I vote a boom is coming. :) .. with interstitials of shallow recessions.
But, is it being done to make our society work, or is it being done to scape goat a cast of people so that they can be made the targets for the bogus sciences of Eugenics and Social Darwinism.
For democracy to work, it has to work for everyone and include everyone.
SJG
SJG
SJG
So people on welfare are just as much a part of our society as you are. And welfare money re-circulates, and makes up part of your income.
I have posted a bit of dissent from Domnic77. Overall I say that we need guaranteed income. But, I discent from Dougster, as he is just introducing this idea to quell dissent as he and his buddies convert us two a two tier society. He is being completely disingenuous, putting out the idea that you can just shut our a huge portion of the population.
SJG
more ED stuff
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SdiNcR9E…
And I say to everyone, don't give up on actually using your talents and abilities. This is what will make the center hold. You use your abilities and we all use ours, otherwise Dougster and his friends in Bayreuth will have us all in concentration camps. We will be receiving Citizenship Pay, but concentration camps are still concentration camps, and really these will be extermination camps.
SJG
Life has so much to offer, if we could just learn to appreciate it.
http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5449/96322…
http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5488/96200…
But what we promote is not the Hate Based Right, it is Social Democracy, more downward wealth transfer, because it recirculates back up to pay people's salaries, and universal health care, housing, and higher education. We promote the benefits of the middle class, but not the reactionary identification systems.
:)
SJG
If we keep rallying at this rate into inaguration day then it will be buy the rumor sell the news.
First prize! Comment of the day! LOL
But alas the timing of this will be difficult and the effects brief. After a period of a year or two shaking out rising rates it will be risk on again, as inflation tides will have normalized.
I always say if you're scared and don't know how to allocate then go 50%\50% stocks and fixed investments. Even throughout a longer time horizon that allocation outpaces inflation and keeps people invested without jumping around and worrying.
SJG
ya think? lol. he is such a lloyd
http://peoplestribune.org/pt-news/2015/1…
SJG
SJG