[OT] Election Predictions?
Ok, here is the official thread to make your election predictions. I'm still leaning slightly in favor of Trump because I think his people are more motivated to vote but the more I look at the electoral college math the less confident I feel.
In terms of what's best for the country I definitely want Clinton. But in terms of generating a little market volatility I would prefer Trump.
In terms of what's best for the country I definitely want Clinton. But in terms of generating a little market volatility I would prefer Trump.
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Here's what I see.
I travel a lot in the midwest, northeast and south. I mostly see Trump signs but some pockets of Hillary signs.
I see things images on the internet of Trump rallies with thousands of people and Hillary ones with only hundreds.
I've read African-Americans aren't going out and voting for Hillary like they did for Obama.
It's said that Hispanics are coming out strong to vote for Hillary.
I've found that potential Hillary voters are extremely loud in voicing who they are voting for while most potential Trump voters are quiet.
Senate majority (too close to call) is incredibly important since the GOP plans to obstruct all Supreme Court nominees. If the Dems take the Senate, they can change the filibuster rules.
Trump would be a disaster and getting rid of him should be nonpartisan.
?????????
Neither is a stellar candidate, but it will be one or the other.
Clinton will take us further down the path we have been going the past 8 yrs, possibly to the point where we cant recover.
At least with Trump there is a potential to stem the tide.
I heard this analogy the other day, and it sums up how I feel.
Voting for Trump is like going to the dentist...
It may scare us a bit, and we don't want to do it, but we have to or the consequences will be much, much worse.
Hopefully! Economy has been booming for the last 8 years with only very brief pullbacks here and there.
Main thing about Trump is that I don't get his theme. "Make America Great Again". As in like it was when????? I don't think the country and economy has ever been stronger than it has now.
I agree with that, the economy is pretty good right now.
I voted for her last week because I think most of those voting for Trump are missing the point completely by thinking that what he is saying is the truth actually he is much less truthful than Hillary and I know from personal experience that he is much more corrupt and always looking to beat someone down I find him to be a bully and a coward case in point he refuses to show his tax returns yet he has the unmitigated gall to constantly talk about how much money she gets as speaking fees. I fucking guarantee if we saw his tax returns he'd be fucked big time.
As far as speaking the truth is concerned insulting folks ain't truth no matter how you try to spin it and he does that constantly. My favorite is hr knows more than the generals how to beat ISIL, the only thing he knows is how to commit war crimes a man who's never served anywhere except his own greed talking about killing families and rounding up muslims and foreigners he is the reincarnation of Hitler and Stalin and Joe McCarthy all rolled one one despicable piece of crap.
I checked and Follies will be open Tuesday. So I think I'll just hang out there instead of the polls.
It is completely propped up with smoke and mirrors.
They want to continue to grow the govt. which will mean that a smaller % of the population will be available to feed it.
Health care costs are starting to skyrocket in order to overtly cover the freeloaders under Obamacare.
What is going to happen when the rich no longer have enough money to take from them in order to give to those that don't contribute anything as is happening under Obama? Cuba? Venezuela?
Under Clinton it will be take from the rich and foreign governments to give to the Clintons.
Other items...
More liberal SC justices will be unrecoverable. The country will likely cease to be what I fought to protect.
We will continue to apologize to those who have sworn to annihilate us and our way of life.
....
@LarryFisherprice
When did they start teaching Macroeconomics in 10th grade?
When did they start teaching Macroeconomics in 10th grade?
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LOL
Hilarious
I think you guys are nuts!!!!!!!
Come to my part of the country and you will see an entire different picture. I personally know tons of gas & shale guys were were pull over $100K last year that are washing dishes in pizza parlors today. I personally know tons of coal miners that are out of work. I personally know people that work for Fortune 500 companies that haven't seen a raise over inflation in years. I know doctors that are shitting their pants trying to figure out how they can run their practices and keep the same margins under Obamacare.
I will agree the economy has gone up in spurts here and there and the housing market has come back great (if you're a seller, not a buyer). I will also agree that jobs are not hard to come by today, but GOOD jobs still seem to be elusive.
Cubans who flee Cuba are what they are, and probably worse.
Castro brothers being a jerk does not mean Cuban Americans are angels.
As far as my prediction, I predict the country will be screwed either way.
It's easier to be specific when you're only 15.
Why do you read, memorize, and the re-read my profile? Are you obsessed with me.
I think they're both terrible. Neither one is fit to be President. Both want to be President for their own egos, not because they want to help anybody.
The Republicans blew it big time, just about anyone else would have solidified the Republican vote and kept the Democrats sitting at home on elections day. Instead they picked an entertainer.
Good jobs are super abundant. The problem is finding qualified people to fill them. Most of big companies can't do it domestically so have to bring people in from outside the country. Even then there aren't enough worldwide.
Not sure Weinergate really had any influence on the polling, anyway.
My apologies in advance I don't intend to hijack this thread but I would really like to point out something that you may not know.
I can't speak about where you live but I have spoken to this on other threads many times, I am in the construction industry, and we are always scrambling to fill open positions, they pay well for this area. starting at well over 25k with experienced journeymen tradesmen able to earn 60-70k annually and more with overtime, paid vacation and medical benefits, because of a lack of young people willing to work at these positions. Maybe some of those guys living in your neck of the woods ought consider relocating it would be beneficial to them. No matter what happens, some of those guys (and gals) are going to need to learn new skills, as history teaches that things become obsolete with new technologies. Just like railroads made the covered wagon obsolete the oil pipelines hurt the railroads and so on and so forth these folks need to adapt to the changing times. Make no mistake about it there are plenty of jobs, many of them good paying but these folks need to be trained so that they can get these good paying jobs.
Then, we will use the Bernie Sander's Organization to keep progressive pressure on Hillary and the entire government.
SJG
Oh well, after voting for Hillary, we will use the Bernie Sanders org to keep the progressive pressure on. That's just how things work.
SJG
SJG
I recently read an excerpt from a doctoral thesis which studied characteristics of Trump supporters and the predominant statistically significant characteristic was authoritarianism. Gender, income, race were all insignificant, but if you prefer obedience over freedom, then Trump's your guy. I'd think that strip club afficianados would lean far to the left on freedom. I also have siblings who are evangelicals and their justification of their support for Drumpf is almost comical. This has to be the most fucked up election since Rutherford Hayes.
Please explain how treasuring freedom is a leftist position.
Most leftist platform positions advocate big government. The most used tactic is to make citizens dependent on it. How is that consistent with freedom?
:-)
I have no prediction on the outcome, it's in a statistical dead heat in these last 2 days. Que sera, sera.
If Clinton wins we'll act behind the scenes to control her. Squawk!
Big concern is on congress... best possible outcome is Republican congress to counteract Hillary and keep her from doing too too much mischief.
The republicans' big problem is disillusioned voters like myself who do not feel that we got what we paid for in the last couple of election cycles. Republicans were supposed to stop Obama, not pander to him. It is that disillusionment with the system and the establishment that caused Trump to win the nomination. I would have loved for Bernie to win the dem nomination, then maybe both parties would have gotten the message.
You are completely nuts, you are certifiable.
If SCOTUS justices who are pro women's rights and will define a woman's rights for her reproductive rights (not overturn Roe v. Wade), defend same-sex marriage, then those liberal justices will have my support.
I am really surprised that being left-leaning of women's freedoms of her own body is a hard sell on a strip club forum. You guys are a bunch of hypocrites or at least a confused bunch. :)
The problem is not that there aren't jobs. I am not sure what Dougster means about good jobs. Maybe we need more "great jobs." Wage stagnation has been the real problem, at least near the middle. I wish trickle down economics was the cure. I used to think so. .. not so much any more .. based on empirical observation, at least. I'd like to hear the conservative response to grow wages. It seems to be part (1) be mobile / willing to relocate. (2) retrain skills, (3) education, (4) experience, (5) hard work, (6) persistence. And lots more of #6.
That's one piece of silver lining, sure.
The re-assuring things I read about "king makers" from 1998 was, that only about 25% of them supported bans on abortion and bans on same-sex marriage. This was from 1998 and from the 0.1% -- the ones who donate to elections and get candidates started.
See, it isn't the guy who raises the most campaign money for an election, who wins. Just ask Jeb Bush about that! haha! But the guy or gal who raises $0? He or she doesn't have a chance. So, he or she needs to raise some money to get started. That pulls mainly from a small pool (but not all of them!) from the 0.1%. And many of them, thank God, are socially central or somewhat social liberal. ... so there is hope for the future. It is time.
throwbackthursday +1
I think dougster and twentyfive mean that good jobs pay $40-60K. Not bad income. I have one myself. And there are lots of those jobs. But I'd like to see more GREAT JOBS (and land one myself, I am not modest!). I am aiming $150K or more. I hope these jobs are out there! I am really trying to work for it!
I am not surprised. In 2012 the Republicans took a long time to rally behind Mr. Romney. He was (IMO) electable but they didn't rally behind him until the last minute. And it was too little too late for him to beat the charismatic President Obama.
They might as well have rallied behind Mr Romney this time. Mr. Kasich sure wasn't going to get it down (I would have supported him) and Mr. Cruz sure wasn't going to either (I would NOT have supported him).
I wish our nation's fiscal responsibility would change, too. I disagree on taxes being the problem. I think wage stagnation of the middle is a bigger problem then millionaire's 39% tax rates or 15-20% capital gains taxes. I don't see trickle down (as much as I would like to believe it is the magic solution!) would help anyone, except the rich. It's not job creation we need. It's reversal of wage stagnation.
Meat72 --> "Save every penny you have so your heirs don't have to live" -->
I disagree with inheritance. Partly because my parents aren't around any more and I didn't get any! ;) and partially because I believe America (United States of America) was founded on a principle that a "Landed Aristocracy" is a very bad thing. So I don't support generational wealth. Use the advantages (if any) you were born into, get an education, and make it on your own. I can't get behind anything that resembles a Landed Aristocracy, sorry.
I agree with this whole heartedly, Mr. Gawker. (I don't mean or know if you agree with me, that's not important here).
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For me, I support having ALL OF the freedoms. Much of rightist social conservatism is anti women in my book.
I support women have choices over their bodies and this includes reproductive rights. I support trusting women and giving them the right to make some important choices. This is not a federal choice and this is not a state choice. This is trusting women to make individual choices in the context of them and in the context of their families. I trust them and I support them. It is a hard enough choice. It's her body, let her choose. You certainly enjoyed her *choice* when you fucked her in the VIP. ;) Now trust her here, too. It's her call.
I support giving women access to Planned Parenthood. PP does a lot of good and provides services to both men and women. Please don't defund this. They provide counseling, gynecological exams, birth control, condoms, and STD testing for both sexes. Please don't defund this. They do a lot of good.
I support not revisiting lost battles. Please don't overturn Roe v. Wade.
I support loving marriages and believe the same marriages should be allowed between loving persons. Many of these loving people are capable of great partnerships and raising families. They should be allowed to enjoy the same rights and privileges as the rest of us traditional marriage people. Same-sex couples are capable of surrogate motherhood and/or adoption. If President Obama can change his option here over the course of his 8 year term, maybe the rest of us can, too!
Anti- sodomy laws and anti-strip clubs laws should go, too! Give a woman the right to choose. Let her dance, if she wants too. Also let her sell her body, if all parties are consenting.
Stop meddling with people's private lives! Keep government and laws out of it!
Now. About that fiscal responsibility ;)
SJG
Guess we just have to make the best of what happened.
We'll get tax cuts now.
Infrastructure spending, including the wall.
Bombing the sh*t out of ISIS.
Dougster, you are mistaken. I am not involved in any kind of political revolution. I am not the one to do that. For one thing, I am way too mean.
No, the organization I am building only indirectly tries to influence politics. We are invitation only, and our people, especially the men, are held to extremely high standards.
Not trying to rally working people or anything like that.
SJG
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Yep, probably true. White working class voters without college degrees are the ones who put Trump in the White House and they are precisely the ones who will be fucked over by Trump's agenda. From things like the repeal of ObamaCare, to tariffs on imports, privatization of SS, voucherization of Medicare, cuts in Medicaid and food stamps, etc...
So Trump tapped into racism to get elected, and it worked, brilliantly. Trump is a total assclown, but these people get what they deserve for being clueless voters.
https://www.amazon.com/Whats-Matter-Kans…
But others, like Doug Henwood, have challenged Thomas Frank on his ideas. They say that these social identity issues actually are the people's interests.
Different way to look at it.
Anyway, just to clarify. Bill and Hillary Clinton, and Al Gore, and Barak Obama reach out to working Americans. But that is not me. What I am building is extremely insular and only in controlled ways tries to influence politics. Primarily it is about Money, Power, and Sex, as well as intellectual concerns.
SJG
They exist on all sides of the spectrum.
SJG
need i remind you that YOUR world view consists of the mental institution and your mother's basement so TAKE YOUR FUCKING MEDS ALREADY
:)
Here in California we just elected Camille Harris to the Senate.
I for one never pay any attention to celebrities. If it were not for the supermarket check out line, I would not even have heard of the Kardashians, and I still don't really know or care who they are.
SJG
http://www.pfaw.org/
Mexico, needs to be the safe haven:
http://www.flickriver.com/photos/navymai…