I would love to hear Dougster's view.
I am just commenting on what the article said (and not my opinion) but it doesn't seem to be something they are considering anytime soon.
I am betting the rates stay the same for now, and do not take the hike that everyone expected last month (before the latest jobs report came out).
Food prices keep going up, which is annoying
The tightening has already been staring to unwind, it's just people focus too much on the fed funds rate. Liber, 10 yr treasury, and short term rates have been rising for a bit, and the repurchasing of assets by the fed have almost stopped. All of this has been part of the slow unwinding of the Feds programs. There will either be a fed funds hike this month or later in the year of course, but likely only once to see how investors play it out. If the seasonal work picks up then by early next year there will be a more hawkish view, but likely the stock market has another 10% move upward before we see any meaningful pull back.
Negative interest rate is just hype, it doesn't really exist as such, it is really another term for inflation.
So if central banks set negative interest rates, it eventually ripples through the economy and I have to pay banks to hold my savings?
And why not continue with QE? Isn't that supposed to accomplish the same thing?
I believe economists in the US think negative interest rates don't work as intended and that other central banks are doing damage to their economies with their negative rates.
What I heard made sense to me. If you were saving 5% of your income for retirement before rates went negative and now you need to save twice as much with negative rates, then you are spending 5% less with negative rates than you were before. Central banks in Europe and other places haven't figured out negative rates are hurting economies, not helping.
Look at the yield on US 3 month treasuries to see if the Fed will raise rates. Currently .327, a far cry from .50 which is the data the fed will be waiting for to raise another quarter point.
random: "it eventually ripples through the economy and I have to pay banks to hold my savings?"
It's already happening in Europe. Maybe one day people will get paid to take out a mortgage or get a student loan. Or everyone will get a check in the mail just for existing.
Sorry the check in the mail thing is ridiculous. It's all direct deposit these days.
I think they will hike this month, but they have been much looser than I've expected time and time again. I think they want to have at least a couple of rounds left in the chamber if they need to loosen in the future.
I can see negative interest happening, or even helicopter money as production becomes so efficient due to advances in AI that prices fall because it's so damn cheap to make things. I think this is one of the reasons for lack of inflation that nobody talks about.