Are markets collapsing today? Bring it on!
Just keep way out in the street when passing high rises. Need to always be on the watch for leapers.
SJG
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Doug Henwood
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Dizzy Gillespie
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What I want is for the markets to get down to some sensible non-Ponzi numbers, and then TO STAY THERE!
But as I know this will never happen because people always want to pander to fatalism, the best is just to let them crash hard. I don't support these markets, when high, or when low.
I have my own stuff, stuff that I and my friends put our own time, energy, and talents into.
Everyone should be able to do this, and I plan to be helping more and more people to; to apply their own talents and abilities, and to work with close colleagues, instead of speculating.
SJG
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Everyone should absolutely Sell! Sell! Sell! That way I can Buy! Buy! Buy!
I have never understood investors that think it is good to buy when the market it up and sell as soon as there is a downturn.
??
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Speculating is when you are putting your hard earned money into stuff you don't really know anything about. I mean you have articles and a history, but that has zero predictive power. All that is is an explanation for why the price is what it already is.
It is rather like watching the television news weather forecast, and then seeing what odds the book makers will give you on whether or not it comes to pass.
If someone could really predict what a particular stock issue was going to do, then the price would already be at that level today.
So there is nothing like optimality or anything else like that.
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Jim Hansell is a CFO type. He works with medium, small, and just starting companies. What he describes in this book are the doings of Kliener Perkins, and why their particularly speculative approach yields an extremely high failure rate. And in fact, even in their successes, it still amounts to just having enough monkeys with enough typewriters and eventually being able to write Shakespeare's plays. The whole thing is a gross waste of talent. KP would say that they are funding "innovation". But this is bullshit, they are strangling off innovation and pissing talent down the drain.
The idea that people are better off speculating, instead of putting their time, energy, and talent into to things and people that they actually know and understand, is nonsense.
We do better working with people we know, and investing in our own enterprises. And besides, a bank account balance alone does not make for a good life. For that you also need some experience of community. So again, work with and invest in your own affairs and with the people you know.
What Dougster and his ilk are putting out is poison. It denigrates our own talents and abilities, as well as our community building skills.
And there is nothing idealistic about what I am saying. It is obvious, empirical reality, for anyone who has ever tried to build a business with people that they know.
I'm not ever going to retire, too many interesting things to do, and too many interesting people to work with.
SJG
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Casino Capitalism
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Well, I hope it is a crash. Bring it on!
But even if it is just a correction, it still gives you the chance to start boosting for the next bubble / boom / New Economy.
Casino investing never stops.
SJG
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How far away is Dow 8,000? That is what I want to see. It is still more than it was in Bush 43's run up to the Iraq war. I would like to see it get down there and stay there. And it will, if people stop speculating.
SJG
Once again you show yourself as a misanthropic dink. SJG doesn't like stocks and investing so now all the older retired folks who count on their investments and dividends many far from rich as well should all starve and die poor on the street.
I understand it perfectly, people have been convinced that speculating is good. So they undermine the legitimate economy. They should not be doing this and other people should not be promoting it.
SJG
China stopped propping their market at 3500-4000 and we are now down to 2900 which should be much more defensible. OTOH, they are propping the Yuan which I suspect they won't want to do much longer. Meanwhile USD is strong and I doubt buyers will show up even if we did get to 2100 hundred again.
No way we drop to to Dow 8,000 however. This is still a boom in the U.S. (Well maybe not for DrPhil's hometown and profession but still overall...)
Maybe it won't go down to 8000, too much currency inflation since the run up to the Bush 43 war.
But once people stop supporting the Ponzi Scheme, everything will be better.
People can start using their talents and abilities, instead of just speculating. People can start to build legitimate businesses, instead of just schemes to take money off of people.
SJG
A very large % of the population is employed in "speculation". And no this does not need to be.
Yes, there will probably always be some involved in fringe areas where stock valuation is highly subject to interpretation, and this is what gives the market some limited efficiency.
But of course there is a serious problem when you have people worrying about their speculations instead of what they might actually do with their own talents and abilities.
SJG
I suspect the % of the population employed in "speculation"/finance is close to optimal. Before 2008 it was probably too high, but the market took care of that. :-) Right now we have tremendous trouble finding qualified people which is also true in the tech industry.
If you want to crusade against a real issues instead of charging a windmill, see what you can do about improving education in the country so that it's not so hard to fill high skilled jobs.
close to optimal?
This is no windmill, people are putting their money into things they know very little about. Maybe only 1% are employed full time doing this, like yourself, but around 50% are still somehow involved in it.
I am all for improving our educational system and giving people more access to continuing education.
Some people are permanently locked out of the job market. You should stop preaching and accept that our economic system is broken and it screws over many people.
SJG
@Dougster
Dougster, Dougster, Dougster. there is not, never has been and never will be any shortage of crazies for me to get rich off of. it is always a boom time for psychiatrists/psychologists. you can appreciate that.
but on the economic boom that isn’t i am starting to worry about you. it almost sounds like you actually believe it. i’m sure i’m worrying about nothing. keep fleecing those home bound senior citizens and as long as you keep making your numbers you won’t have to worry about trying to find one of those $15/hr non-existent jobs back in Seattle. hey maybe rapey boy would let you move into his mother’s basement with him if worse came to worse. :)
Looks like @SJG and @DoctorPhil finally agreed on one thing: Dow 8000. Because Libertarian and Ayn Rand and SJG's church all said even though that's all they ever agreed on.
Dougster “Looks like @SJG and @DoctorPhil finally agreed on one thing: Dow 8000”
oh puhleeeze. that statement is uncalled for.
this is just a correction and has nothing to do with my comments. the “recovery” HAS BEEN the most anemic recovery in history according to the government’s GDP numbers. but i can look at a chart of the S&P and see the anemia with my own two eyes
oh, one more thing Dougster and all kidding aside, if for whatever reason you do end up bunking with you know who, DO NOT under any circumstances sleep on your stomach. ‘nuf said
@DoctorPhil: just a correction? Where is the justice for not following the policies of Libetarians and Ayn Rand?
After all if anyone does follow that one true way there is only one possible outcome: DOOM! Because Libertaraians and Aynd Rand said so.
And I thought you card carrying cookie cutter Libertarians knew better than to trust government GDP data. All a big conspiracy to hide the truth (ie pending DOOM because we didn't listen to Ayn Rand).
I'll give you a little hint: if there is any turbulence in the market or economic data it's precisely because the market's can see the US boom that you cannotand have rallied the dollar like crazy into It. And all this under Obama. How you figure that DoctorPhil? Isn't the world supposed to be Utopia following Libertarian policies and total shit otherwise?
@Dougster
OK i think it is time you took a nap. when did i ever become a follower of Ayn Rand or a card carrying libertarian in your mind? and isn’t “card carrying libertarian” an oxymoron?
and wherever did you get the idea that “I” of all people has any interest in justice?
maybe you should read my post again –the part where i said i can look at a chart of the S&P and see the anemia with my own two eyes before you accuse me of trusting the government GDP figures
and wtf is with the obama comments. i never blamed obama nor gave him credit for the stock market or much of anything economically related – at least not in the short term. but now that you bring him up where are those who praised and worshiped him as the lord savior of the economy now that – let me be tactful – now that things don’t look so good? are they now blaming the dumbass or are they praying for just one more miracle? pffttt
all i’ve done is to say the emperor has no clothes by pointing out that there HAS not BEEN an economic boom something that i believe YOU acknowledged recently when you said you were early on your call.
“i” have no idea what is going to happen tomorrow but i do know that the only sure bet is to go long on gravy futures.
@DrPhil: Nope I've said that the U.S. is clearly booming. It's nice you think you can read an S&P chart - how about one for the USD?
Whether China and EMs can screw our boom up for us is something I'm still thinking about. (I'm neutrally positioned right now, very skeptical the S&P will make new highs - because of the havoc the strong dollar is wreaking.)
@Dougster
well yes i can certainly read the USD chart. i always thought a strong dollar, while making a vacation to Europe less expensive, was bad for the US trade balance making US products more expensive for the rest of the world and eventually doing great harm to the US economy but i will have to defer to your expertise
sticking to my own area of expertise i am concerned about you. if you need me to write you a prescription for a little something to help you sleep just let me know. the stress of a new job can be too much for some people. i’m sure in the long run, sooner or later your economic boom will happen. hang in there
We'll only ever get that boom if we start listening to Ayn Rand and Libertarians, right? Oops, I mean you'll only acknowledge it when that happens. Since that will never happen guess I'll just have to listen to the opinion of the currency market instead of yours. :-)
SJG the next crash will be three years away, and it may be a small crash after the rates have risen for an extended period. We are too far away from that.
Dow 8000? Are you stuck in the '90s when the your greatest claim to fame was helping put away a Pentecostal minister? Dude I wish I could fuck 10 times a day like I used to in the 90's, but those days are gone. Let it go....
@Meat72, I don't know about any 10 times per day. And besides, I like to go slow and easy with women. Let them cum easily and freely, until they get going with continuous orgasm. I use various rhythms, letting air get out, so I can pull a vacuum, so we fit together tighter and so I can do a lot of g-spot massaging. I focus on our joined 7 chakras, the energy centers. Sex is a religious experience for me. I don't try and explain this to women before the fact, but after the fact, like say in an AMP, once I have taken care of one of them, they are jumping in front of each other to get a turn. And then they give me what can only be described as "Explosive GFE".
But I am looking forward to a life of complete pussy saturation, meaning as many dolled up and dressed for sex hotties as I can possibly do, 365 days per year.
For the people who work with me, they'll get exactly the same. I won't be getting more or better than them, because we will all be getting maxed out 365 days per year. I think young guys will want more quickies, and old guys like me will want more long and slow and more Toda La Noche.
It's not that hard. When you get right down to it, women love sex at least as much as men do, and they have a much higher capacity too. It's just that they need to be taken care off too. Marriage stinks, and straight P4P stinks too. The best is when you can make is somewhere in the middle.
I don't know if the DOW could or should hit 8,000, but how about 10,000? That would be a big improvement.
Right now all these growth oriented companies, what are they doing? They are making labor contingent, into a variable cost. They are dismantling our economy, and our communities.
So people put money into them, and people like @Dougster get a shot at joining the top 1%, just by handling other people's money. And where does this money come from? It is simply what is no longer being collected in income tax after the Reagan changes.
And then these same people are the ones who lobby for privatizing and otherwise undermining Social Security.
So @IME thinks I should feel for the senior citizens who are getting squeezed by a market down turn, and when these are probably the same people who have voted Republican since 1980 and are responsible for attacks on Social Security?
And then of course the real issue here, people not using their own abilities. There are people here on TUSCL who have built businesses from an early age. They used their skills and undoubtedly they have colleagues who they have come to respect.
Certainly, using their own abilities and being directly involved, lowers the risk and greatly raises the mathematical expectation of return. Working with their own cadre of people and building their own businesses, in fields they actually know something about, is always going to be better.
With start up companies, once they go beyond the VC's, they go to these venture fund managers with insurance funds, institutional funds, and pension funds. It is the full time professional investors with these organizations who lead the pricing.
So if you read something which says, "This company is good." Or if you follow Dougster telling you, "Learn those investing skills", and "Look for those industries lest amenable to automation", then you are playing right into the hands of the professional fund managers. You are buying in after them. You are helping to substantiate the prices which they have led. You know nothing except an after the fact justification for why the price is what it is, reflecting an expectation of future performance beyond the present balance sheet.
Maybe that will happen, but maybe not. It's okay. I'm not a big moralist. Some people get off on betting on sporting events. Some people get off on playing the stock market.
But stop the other bull shit though. Stop talking like you are somehow smarter or more worthy of a good life than other people. You aren't! And stop trying to push the politics your way. It does tremendous harm to our country.
The people who do the best use their own skills and work with people they know, to build their own businesses. They put their money into their own doings.
They don't need to listen to Dougster or his ilk. And they are only peripherally influenced by "The Markets".
SJG
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Casino Capitalism
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@Dougster.
did you even try to nap?
if you insist on trying to categorize me then i belong in the “i would never join a club that would have me as a member” column. i’m no follower of Ayn Rand and while i may be a bit of an anarchist and a full-fledged sadistic fuck, i really have no desire to either harm or wish ill will on innocent people unlike that criminally insane, uneducated, shit-for-brains, communist loser san_jose_guy who sits in his mother’s basement masturbating while he fantasizes about a complete economic collapse that will leave 300 million men, women and children starving in the streets just so he can feel good about himself knowing that he was right all along about how the stock market is a speculative ponzi scheme and how smart he was to stock up his mother’s basement with 30 years worth of gravy in 55 gallons drums right next to his unsold cases of Amway shit and 200 kilos of marijuana.
Any time I am uncertain as to the Libertarian stance on some political/economic issue, I'll drop you a line. Then you can recite to me line and verse from Atlas Shrugged.
^^^ Just coincidence everything you say is straight out of the Libertrarian/Randroid party manual? Don't run from it DoctorPhil. I know she is an embarrassment to you folks. OWN IT!
"I was fucking 10 times a day in the 90's."
I do them slow and easy, and in multiple rounds. The preliminaries, the in between times, and the send offs, are important too. So maybe at the most, I could do a good job with two per day. My own ejaculations are just a small part of the encounter.
SJG
okay Dougster now you are starting to scare me. looking back over my posts the only things i've said is 1) that the recovery has been the most anemic in history, 2) to date there has not been the economic boom that you predicted and 3) that "i" understood that a strong dollar was a net, long term negative to the US economy.
and you think those observations are out of some Libertarian/Randroid party manual?
maybe this move to NYC has been more stressful on you than you think. i didn't realize that was a possibility but it might help to explain your fondness for the criminally insane "alucard of the silicon valley"
try to get some sleep. i do worry about you and i don't want to see you starving in the streets like san_jose_guy does.
Because my conclusion that you are a Libertarian sycophant could only have been based on comments in this thread. Couldn't have been on your posts/debates/attacks on those who aren't true believers prior to this thread.
Just own up to it. Your denials are about as convincing as Josh43 denying he was a Democratic sycophant.
Check my posting history, DoctorPhil: Notice that 9 hour gap between posts last night? What could that be? Nice try!
no worries Dougster. think of me however you wish. or as i know how fond you are of steve229 and his quoting song lyrics let me put it this way:
You say I took the name in vain
I don't even know the name
But if I did, well really, what's it to you?
There's a blaze of light
In every word
It doesn't matter which you heard
The holy or the broken hallelujah
here's to a speedy bounce back of the market, a long overdue economic recovery and an early arrival of your economic boom
SJG maybe "two ejaculations" in your aging body happens per day now, but are you telling me that when you were in your 20's that's all, too? I was shooting ropes anytime I could find a free moment, it's just I didn't have the cash around like I do now. Thank god, too because I would have Rickyboy Dugan my ass all over the strip club scene.
Meat72, I had written, "I do them slow and easy, and in multiple rounds. "
I like to be with one woman for a period of time, this means the in-between times. It lets she and I grow closer. It is not just a quantitative thing, it is a qualitative matter. The girl plays a bigger role in making it happen each time.
I had learned this with a civilian I have mentioned before, KRD, Vietnamese and quite possible 1/2 Afro American. She was just an extremely sexualized person, different from others I have known and different from the one I would end up married to. But then also doing much more of it in Red Book AAMPs where MSOG is part of the standard offering.
It is fun, not just because it is more of the same, but because the girl plays a bigger role and it definitely effects her differently. The psychology behind it might not be that much different from anal, which I have just posted about.
So I say now, two women per day would be about the most I could do a good job with. But in practice I am not expecting it to be more than one per day, because I think it important for a man to be doing other things, not just spending all his time being skin to skin with women.
SJG
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