Where do you guys see the market heading over the next few weeks and the rest of the year? Is this just a correction we are experiencing, or are we going to see a meltdown like 2008? How low do you think we are headed on the Dow Jones? 15,000? 10,000?
I don't see a meltdown ala 2008. The collapse of the mortgage markets and, as a result, the failure of overall financial industry, was a very unique event in breadth and depth. There is no apparent crisis event on that scale brewing in the U.S. in the near-term, at least as far as anyone can tell.
But I do see an orderly retreat for some time to come. There simply exists too many negative pressures on the market, including oil weakness, events overseas which ultimately impact our markets and economy, softness in a number of U.S. economic indicators reported in the last couple of months, etc. Stocks have been expensive for some time now. The market will have to find a new sustainable floor now until the economic picture improves, which I am starting to believe won't happen anytime soon. I'm going to guess that the floor will be much closer to 15,000 than 10,000.
I wasn't convinced we were in trouble until China went and fucked things up. The U.S. Economy was humming along nicely - booming, in fact, but China was such an obvious clusterfuck I had to move my 401k to 100% money market (dodged the bullet by a week) and close/reduce long positions and add hedges just in time to others.
The situation is complex right now. I actually think no rate hikes this year is already taken for granted by the market and I see central banks as having fired all of their ammunition already. Besides China a huge red flag was the reaction to the last Fed minutes: an initial rally because it became clear there would be no September hike got violently sold off.
I think a drop to S&P 1820 is about a given, after that it's hard to say - but the China market is a bit easier to predict.
The other interesting thing this year was there was about zero buying interest above 2100. So the sloshing around in 2000-2100 probably meant slow profit taking.
No idea how low yet, and whether it will be a correction or crash but I am thinking hard about what the policy responses are likely to be. One scary thing is everyone piling into oil and oil stocks thinking $40 will hold. The good news is how strong the U.S. is relative to 2008.
Mostly I'm hoping SJG is able to offer me a job with his church if the worst case plays out and NYC goes tits up. :-)
desertscrub: "there is no new technology or trend to increase consumption (how many more 70" TV's, or tablets do i need to buy?)"
I definitely disagree with this. Biotech is the biggest counter-example - unless you think people are gong to stop getting sick or are not interested in living healthier and longer. Sensors of all kinds are another big industry on the horizon.
As long as people think in fatalistic ways, Dougster and his ilk will always be able to make more bubbles by saying, "The US is humming along nicely." But if people look some at the built in problems, then they will want to start changing things closer to home and will be wanting to put their money into things they are actually involved in.
This is what I am doing. And if a leopard can change its spots and Dougster would be willing to stop the big con game, he'll be welcome too.
People who have not given up and who have not become cynical, will be interested in putting their money into their own projects and into working with their own local people.
It is only after people have given up and become cynical that they will turn to stock market speculation and trying to widen the gap between haves and have nots by feeding Ponzi scheme bubble after Ponzi scheme bubble.
People talk idealistic and shit but when push comes to shove they put themselves and their families and then rationalize that they are acting consistently with their idealism. I've seen that one confess times.
Dougster, it's not just robots. Lions can outdo you hairless apes at anything. The only human that cuts a more dashing figure in a suit than me is my buddy Rick Dugan!
You, my non-friend, are soon to receive the wildebeest treatment. ROAR!
Doing things that use your skills and serve real needs is not idealistic at all, nor is working with people you know and share common values with.
But it is fatalistic to say that none of the above matters. Your ideology is rooted in fatalism. You are promoting fatalism and trying to profit from it.
True. Forget all this "but will they ever be able to write poetry or pass a Turing test shit" real question should be "would they ever be able to invent a System to pay hookers for sex".
RickyBoy will remain apex predator/top of the food chain.
More money is lost trying to protect yourself from losses or trying to predict losses than anything else in the investment world. Investor behavior, or lack of, will always details performance. Panicking and selling before your time horizon and lack of patience, couple together for the top two reasons why the general population fails in investing. Very few people can capitalize guessing the peaks and valleys that a whipsaw market creates. The only true constant is that markets go up more than they go down, and if you're investing in commerce (like the S & P 500 index) the costs go up over time. I'm currently adding more long positions from my cash reserves slowly over the next few weeks, and it will materialize to big gains over the next 5 years when the cost of everything will be higher due to inflation and market gains. Low inflation will not stick around forever.
Meat72, I understand what you are saying, and yes it is true.
But, it is not true for me because my money is in the things that I and close associates are the principles of.
Even if sometimes we do "lose", it is not a real loss because what we did and what we learned will carry over into something else for us.
It is also because we are not following the Kleiner Perkins example of over capitalizing far out stuff which might have an outside chance at a huge win, and is predicated on being able to control an emerging market niche. Instead, we are doing things for which there is a proven need and a proven market. We are just doing a better job of it.
If people were not being saturated with hype about get rich quick schemes and just started looking at themselves and their friends, then more would be living and working this way.
@SJG: honestly I've been so busy getting established in NYC I've had almost no time for clubs. It's been all work, work. Plus the clubs here suck anyway - gotta go out of town for that. When I do take a break from
I usually just visit the local bars.
Read their descriptions and membership application.
At that kind of a place, after hours and members only and all, I suspect that once they get to know you, you can just pick the girl you want and walk her out the front door and to your car, and probably spend the night appreciating her.
Not sure if this would be the sort of place I would like.
Here, from the Sights web page:
"
The founder was dismayed at the present atmosphere of the local adult club industry where crime and disorder was accepted as a norm. Some local strip clubs were often also places where drug use, fights, robberies and even homicides took place.
In addition to the crime issue, the Founder also noticed a huge difference in the exotic dancing that took place in local clubs and the Art of Exotic Dancing that took place in clubs throughout other parts of the United States. Exotic dancing in other parts of the country seemed to be taken more seriously as dancers and performers. The dancers actually performed and treated dancing as a true art form.
Also the men in other areas of the country who regularly frequent strip clubs accepted and respected the exotic dance culture more. For many in these areas going to a stipclub was no different than going to a regular dance club.
Another difference the Founder noticed in other clubs throughout the country were the attitudes of law enforcement towards clubs where nude dancing took place. Throughout the South and the Mid-West strip clubs were accepted and treated as normal entertainment by law enforcement. Unfortunately on the East Coast, clubs, dancers and club patrons are routinely treated as criminals and prey for opportunistic politicians seeking media headlines by looking tough on crime.
Believing that there were men who shared his interests, the Founder decided to create a private social club for himself and his close friends that was safe, enjoyable, exciting and filled with beautiful, young, nude exotic dancers. He wanted Sights Social Club to be a private club that men would not only be proud to be a member of but a club they wouldn’t hesitate to bring their friends, family members, sons, business associates and co-workers to.
"
Anyway, I don't got to strip clubs for alcohol or for male bonding. I go because I like the beautiful dolled up women, and so I want to engage with them. Forming an emotional connection is what it is all about. Everything else comes from that. Otherwise one is just using the women as props.
SJG only knows what he sees in movies and hears second hand pay him no mind, let him live in his fantasy land where he hides from his mom in the basement and drinks his gravy.
Today was interesting. It looked like the market was going to recover some of its losses with the Dow Jones being up 442 at one point. But alas, there was a dip at the end of trading, and it ended 204 in the red.
Should have just read Dougster's comments to figure out what was coming next.
Think we'll dip into the 1700's next or just set a new low and then a several week or couple month bounce to form a right shoulder before a multi month big drop?
China could devalue their currency some more and then the Fed might decide to do a small .10 interest rate increase and then say they'll watch the data.
retail investors have had enough wondering what's going to happen next.
sell sell sell. I'm all in cash right now.
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But I do see an orderly retreat for some time to come. There simply exists too many negative pressures on the market, including oil weakness, events overseas which ultimately impact our markets and economy, softness in a number of U.S. economic indicators reported in the last couple of months, etc. Stocks have been expensive for some time now. The market will have to find a new sustainable floor now until the economic picture improves, which I am starting to believe won't happen anytime soon. I'm going to guess that the floor will be much closer to 15,000 than 10,000.
The situation is complex right now. I actually think no rate hikes this year is already taken for granted by the market and I see central banks as having fired all of their ammunition already. Besides China a huge red flag was the reaction to the last Fed minutes: an initial rally because it became clear there would be no September hike got violently sold off.
I think a drop to S&P 1820 is about a given, after that it's hard to say - but the China market is a bit easier to predict.
The other interesting thing this year was there was about zero buying interest above 2100. So the sloshing around in 2000-2100 probably meant slow profit taking.
No idea how low yet, and whether it will be a correction or crash but I am thinking hard about what the policy responses are likely to be. One scary thing is everyone piling into oil and oil stocks thinking $40 will hold. The good news is how strong the U.S. is relative to 2008.
Mostly I'm hoping SJG is able to offer me a job with his church if the worst case plays out and NYC goes tits up. :-)
I definitely disagree with this. Biotech is the biggest counter-example - unless you think people are gong to stop getting sick or are not interested in living healthier and longer. Sensors of all kinds are another big industry on the horizon.
This is what I am doing. And if a leopard can change its spots and Dougster would be willing to stop the big con game, he'll be welcome too.
SJG
https://sites.google.com/site/sjgportal/
Underlying fundamental "problem" is that robots will soon be able to outdo us in anything. But that has advantages as well?
It is only after people have given up and become cynical that they will turn to stock market speculation and trying to widen the gap between haves and have nots by feeding Ponzi scheme bubble after Ponzi scheme bubble.
Dougster and his ilk prey on such people.
SJG
https://sites.google.com/site/sjgportal/
This is going to be another exciting week. I totally live for shit like this!
You, my non-friend, are soon to receive the wildebeest treatment. ROAR!
But it is fatalistic to say that none of the above matters. Your ideology is rooted in fatalism. You are promoting fatalism and trying to profit from it.
SJG
https://sites.google.com/site/sjgportal/
RickyBoy will remain apex predator/top of the food chain.
Is there an elite club in an undisclosed Manhattan high-rise?
Do they do onsite FS, or do you take the girl some place else?
Do you like to spend the night with them? A few hours? Or just quickies?
SJG
https://sites.google.com/site/sjgportal/
But, it is not true for me because my money is in the things that I and close associates are the principles of.
Even if sometimes we do "lose", it is not a real loss because what we did and what we learned will carry over into something else for us.
It is also because we are not following the Kleiner Perkins example of over capitalizing far out stuff which might have an outside chance at a huge win, and is predicated on being able to control an emerging market niche. Instead, we are doing things for which there is a proven need and a proven market. We are just doing a better job of it.
If people were not being saturated with hype about get rich quick schemes and just started looking at themselves and their friends, then more would be living and working this way.
SJG
https://sites.google.com/site/sjgportal/
I usually just visit the local bars.
http://ajlevan.theworldrace.org/blogphot…
Then after that I would go to Sights, in Newark, an after hours members only club, for people who appreciate beautiful women, black women.
http://clubsights.com/
Read their descriptions and membership application.
At that kind of a place, after hours and members only and all, I suspect that once they get to know you, you can just pick the girl you want and walk her out the front door and to your car, and probably spend the night appreciating her.
SJG
https://sites.google.com/site/sjgportal/
https://www.tuscl.net/club.php?ID=1705
Not sure if this would be the sort of place I would like.
Here, from the Sights web page:
"
The founder was dismayed at the present atmosphere of the local adult club industry where crime and disorder was accepted as a norm. Some local strip clubs were often also places where drug use, fights, robberies and even homicides took place.
In addition to the crime issue, the Founder also noticed a huge difference in the exotic dancing that took place in local clubs and the Art of Exotic Dancing that took place in clubs throughout other parts of the United States. Exotic dancing in other parts of the country seemed to be taken more seriously as dancers and performers. The dancers actually performed and treated dancing as a true art form.
Also the men in other areas of the country who regularly frequent strip clubs accepted and respected the exotic dance culture more. For many in these areas going to a stipclub was no different than going to a regular dance club.
Another difference the Founder noticed in other clubs throughout the country were the attitudes of law enforcement towards clubs where nude dancing took place. Throughout the South and the Mid-West strip clubs were accepted and treated as normal entertainment by law enforcement. Unfortunately on the East Coast, clubs, dancers and club patrons are routinely treated as criminals and prey for opportunistic politicians seeking media headlines by looking tough on crime.
Believing that there were men who shared his interests, the Founder decided to create a private social club for himself and his close friends that was safe, enjoyable, exciting and filled with beautiful, young, nude exotic dancers. He wanted Sights Social Club to be a private club that men would not only be proud to be a member of but a club they wouldn’t hesitate to bring their friends, family members, sons, business associates and co-workers to.
"
Anyway, I don't got to strip clubs for alcohol or for male bonding. I go because I like the beautiful dolled up women, and so I want to engage with them. Forming an emotional connection is what it is all about. Everything else comes from that. Otherwise one is just using the women as props.
SJG
https://sites.google.com/site/sjgportal/
SJG
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Times+…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Times_Squa…
This picture, kl, is Kula Lumpur
http://ajlevan.theworldrace.org/blogphot…
"Booth Babies", Time Square
http://nymag.com/anniversary/40th/50716/
http://urban-review.com/sex-workers-disc…
SJG
https://sites.google.com/site/sjgportal/
Adult theaters with female companionship available? Massage parlors? Hookers out on street?
SJG
https://sites.google.com/site/sjgportal/
Topless girls with red, white, and blue body paint.
SJG
https://sites.google.com/site/sjgportal/
Think we'll dip into the 1700's next or just set a new low and then a several week or couple month bounce to form a right shoulder before a multi month big drop?
retail investors have had enough wondering what's going to happen next.
sell sell sell. I'm all in cash right now.