Ooops.... RickDugan Calls TxTittyFan An Idiot

that was better than dressing room drama

Did I? :) I think what I actually said was that levered currency trading is a fool's game because of day-to-day exchange rate fluctuations. One bad day can eat up your core capital position.

Doug, you're an emotional mess and I can't help to wonder how you got this way. Did your mother drop you on your head as a baby? Did your daddy diddle you in the dark hours of the night? Do you have some deformity that requires you to shut yourself away from normal human contact? Some other traumatic experience or event? ;)

Rick: "nobody can predict day-to-day currency market fluctuations. "

Sure Rick, you only meant that it was the currency market that can't be beaten by day trading. Other markets (like treasuries which tittyfan admits to day trading), however, can be beaten and txtittyfan sticks to those markets. Got it! LOL.

Poor Dougster, once again he makes up stories. I never said I day trade treasuries. I trade stocks. And Rick, I think Dougster's problem is just that he is envious of those who have accomplished what he wishes he could accomplish. Dougster's only accomplishment in life is being a board bitch, and he exhibits the tendencies of a loser.

Right, tittyfan, you never traded TBT which is 2x short treasuries, got it. Reminds of when you claimed you never said to short treasuries at all. Looks like all you and Rick got now is lies, but it was hilarious watching you two. Rick had to admit that he talks out of his ass, and then calls you an idiot because you're a day trader. Then you make up lies that you didn't say such and such when it is all there in black and white in the archive... Too funny!

From the archive

txtittyfan: "I bought the TBT short bond ETF... "

Never touches treasuries, and definitely not with as lowly an instruments as an ETF, huh? Okay... Love seeing idiots like rick and tittyfan just tangle themselves up with more lies once they are busted.

Actually Dougster, what I admitted is that I did not realize the leverage that Forex allows.

And if you hold a levered currency position and the market moves against you on a particular day, what happens? Care to educate us? :)

Well Rick, first you said that there was no way that a retail trader would be allowed to trade at 10:1 leverage. Not sure where you got that idea, but when I pointed out you were wrong, you did admit you didn't know anything about the whole subject to begin with so were talking out of your ass all along. HAHA! RickDugan loses again!

Wasn't really a good day for you and I guess you were angry when I pointed out your ignorance, because then you flew into a rage about how idiotic day traders are. I guess you thought I was the one claimed to be a day trader, when I have never made such a claim. In reality it turns out that it is txtittyfan who claims to be a day trader. If you look at the trades I have suggested it is about 6 in the last two years, they were all at least months in duration, one close to a year.

"if you hold a levered currency position and the market moves against you on a particular day, what happens? Care to educate us? :)"

Can you be more specific with your question? How much leverage are you using? How much were you up going into the particular day? And how much of a market move against you do you have in mind? Also a question for you which might help you understand the answer. What happens if you have a leveraged stock position and the market moves against you? Do think stock are treated differently? What about bonds? (Hint here txtittyfan has admitted to trading the leveraged bond ETF TBT, so think carefully about your answer, so you don't accidentally end up calling him an idiot again. :-))

Dougster, admitting that one is wrong is a sign or maturity.

However, every time I mention day-to-day currency market fluctuations impacting a levered position, you make a comment about day trading. So are you saying that a single day currency move does not affect your core capital in a levered position? Is it not the case that some of your positions must be liquidated if you fall below your margin requirements? Is it also not the case that, if you are levered 10:1, then a 1% loss on your gross exposure translates into a 10% loss on your core capital position?

Thanks for getting more specific Rick.

If you maintained your position to *current equity* at 10:1 then a 1% move would mean a 10%, loss. However if you scaled up in such a way that you went in 2x your *original equity* in 5 steps as the position continued up then your loss could be far less than 10%. It would depends how much you were up when the move against you occured (i.e what was the ratio of position to total equity at that point). If you did it right, and you thought it was time get out, you might even be able to get out before having to take a loss on your fifth and final addition.

I do actually agree with some of your underlying points. Yes, trying to day trade the currency markets (or any markets actually) is quite dangerous for most, and that is especially so if one is not careful about leverage.

I think the correct approach is to go in with small amount of leverage and slowly build up leverage with time. I won't go beyond 10:1 times the original position, and even then only when it was highly profitable and I had high confidence in the trade. Being able to withstand market fluctuations is important, as is giving yourself an oppurtunity to get out gracefully when the trend ends.

Now a question for you Rick. Do you think it is only the currency market that cannot be beaten with day trading, or do you think it is all markets, or do you think it is "some markets" (and if so which)?

Dougster, I think that my main point had to do with trading something as volatile as currency while heavlily levraged rather than day trading. Though I'm not much of a fan of day trading either and very few people make money from it long-term.

What makes currency so difficult to trade vs. straight equities or bonds is that nature of the "value" inputs. At least with equities and bonds, a component of the return is going to include company-specific strengths and risks, which to some degree can be measured and tracked through company filings and heavy industry research. On the other hand, forecasting all of the macro-economic components necessary to accurately forecast the strength of one nation's currency vs. another is virtually impossible, which is why so few professional traders utlize currencies as a primary investment tool.

Currencies are actually less volatile than stocks which is why they allow higher leverage. A 3% move on a currency in one day is a few times a year thing event, but happens with stocks all the time.

Bonds, commodities, stocks, and currencies are all equally popular with the best traders (read Market Wizards), although the man in streets tends to think of "stock market" when he thinks about traders.

All markets are affected most by the pretty much the same factor (mass psychology) which is why there are oppurtunities in all markets. One great commodities trader made a fortune trading soybeans although he never followed the news or knew even knew what soybean looked like.

Btw, I am taking I taking this dip on dollar (75.58) to move up to 3:1 leverage.

Here is a real world problem to be dealt with in the forex market:

Oilman (me) is producing oil in Canada. Costs are in CAD. Revenue is in USD. I hedge oil prices in the futures market - 2011: US$104/bbl; 2012: US$106/bbl; 2013: US$106.50/bbl.

Question is: What do I do with CAD-USD cross rates for the next two and a half years? Lock in today's rate of approx. C$1=US$1.025. Or take the spot rate at time of sale?

My perception is that USD falls vs. CAD in the next two and a half years, so hedging currency at today's rates helps me. But if my perception of currency movement is wrong my netback/bbl of oil can be hit by 10-15%.

That is how currency movement affects the real world. Any advice?

My feeling is that the US dollar is in a long term downtrend. I am just trading a bounce into the summer, perhaps, and then it will be time to short the US dollar.

I am not a professional, however. For that you'll have to ask txtittyfan. :-)

The dollar and treasuries were very strong overnight. I'll be looking to go to 4:1 long the dollar soon. I'll also post an update on how txtittyfan's second call to short treasuries is doing soon (hint, not very well, LOL! What a dumbass that tittyfan is.)

YAWN

Sorry, vince. I'll try not to bump this more than once a week, but the board really does need to be protected from charlatans like tittyfan, so I am going to keep track of just how bad his call to short treasuries does. Put it in black and white here for all to see.

I understand, Dougster. We do have our constitutionally protected right to free speech.

VM,
Dougster fancies himself as a modern day Don Quixote, protecting the masses from non existent perils.

tittyfan still trying to deny what a disaster his first and second calls to short treasuries were. Sad... (In his mind he is still thinking they are going to collapse 'any day now'.)

Ok final addition to the dollar here at 75.96, that will make it 4:1.