TxTittyFan Says Short Treasuries and Short Dollars

Dougster
Hmmm... What do you guys think? Should we follow his advice here?

32 comments

Latest

Dougster
15 years ago
Should be quite a bit of action in the market the next few weeks. Let's track txtittyfan's advice here, to see how he does. We'll use DXY to track how the dollar is doing and TLT to track how treasuries are doing. From Friday's close we have:

DXY: 78.28 (<- tx says this is going down)
TLT: 92.00 (<- tx says this is going down as well)

We'll check in every so often to see how things are going.
samsung1
15 years ago
Just wondering Dougster what is your investment advice??

Lets also track the following stocks:
Rick's Cabaret RICK $11.47 (1/22)
Playboy PLA $3.41
LodgeNet Interactive LNET $6.01
Anheuser-Busch BUD $48.06
VCG Holding VCGH $2.12
Dougster
15 years ago
Hmmm... Porn, strippers, and beer. Ok, let's see how they do.

I won't advise others since that requires a good knowledge of things like their overall risk tolerance, life stage, and what not. Personally, I'm all USDs and treasuries until a better chance to buy comes along. I am going contrary to the professional tittyfan, however, so I really am taking my chances.
samsung1
15 years ago
The biggest investment I made last year was with my 401k plan. There are 10 different funds to choose from ranging from low risk to high risk and I just diversified it by allocating 10% of the contribution into each.

My employer matches contributions up to a certain percentage so even if the stock market does tank again, the employer contribution gives me a buffer to tolerate loses before my principal amount is touched.
Dougster
15 years ago
Yep, matching contributions are good. Can't beat free money.
vincemichaels
15 years ago
Anheuser-Busch has always been a moneymaker for me, there is little doubt people will stop drinking beer. The stock has a fairly constant fluctuation, so I add when it is down as it is now.
samsung1
15 years ago
I have also read that during recessions, people are more likely to drink beer to help ease their minds off their troubles. And of course in good times, they will drink to help celebrate.
gk
15 years ago
My portfolio went up 22% last year with a moderate investment streategy.
Clubber
15 years ago
gk,

My portfolio went down much more than that with my retirement strategy. :)
txtittyfan
15 years ago
Burger King is test marketing Budweiser with their value meals. I always find it interesting that in tough times, we seem to loosen our attitudes towards vices.
gatorfan
15 years ago
Playboy collapsed a few years back. Penthouse is a better indicator.
samsung1
15 years ago
txtittyfan, Burger King is not expected to sell beer at its conventional Burger King restaurants only at their "Burger Bars".

ST. LOUIS – Burger King announced last week that it is about to begin selling beer, an effort to better compete with casual dining restaurants, the St. Louis Business Journal reports.

The burger giant will begin selling Anheuser-Busch and MillerCoors products at a new Whopper Bar opening next month in South Beach, Florida, the company's first U.S. location to sell beer. Beer will be sold in special aluminum bottles and cost $4.25. As part of a Whopper-beer combo, the total will be $7.99, roughly $2 more than the same combo meal with a fountain drink.

Burger King plans to open additional Whopper Bars in Las Vegas, Los Angeles, New York City and Malaga, Spain, where beer sales may also follow. The company is not expected to sell beer at its conventional Burger King restaurants.
http://www.nacsonline.com/NACS/News/Dail…

Still interesting though, but your post txtittyfan made me think of the burger king fast food places as selling the beer. I forgot about their burger bars that they have.
samsung1
15 years ago
gatorfan, what is the trading symbol for Penthouse?
samsung1
15 years ago
Penthouse Porn Publisher FriendFinder Beats Facebook To IPO Punch
1/26/2010

Penthouse publisher FriendFinder Networks Inc., which also runs racy social networking sites Bondage.com, AdultFriendFinder.com, and HotBox.com, hopes to raise $220 million in an IPO this week.

FriendFinder, formerly known as Penthouse Media Group, will sell 20 million shares under an "FFN" name starting Thursday. Shares are expected to price between $10 and $12.

FriendFinder is one of the first social networking sites to go public, and could indicate how well Facebook, Twitter, or LinkedIn might do in as an IPO.

But analysts say FriendFinder's sales have been flat. The company said in a regulatory filing that net revenue was $244.4 million in the nine months ended Sept. 30, compared with $243.9 million in the same period a year earlier. In its filing, the company noted that proceeds from the offering would be used to pay off $471 million in debt.

"I think this is a case of going public or going broke," analyst Francis Gaskins of IPOdesktop.com told the AP. "They're just too leveraged to stay afloat."

The Boca Raton-based company has 1 million paying subscribers. They make 70% of their revenue from pay-to-play pornography, personal ads and other graphic content on their social networking sites. The other 30% comes from "general audience" social networking sites that include Amigos.com, SeniorFriendFinder.com and BigChurch.com.

http://www.businessinsider.com/penthouse…
Dougster
15 years ago
Let's see how we are doing after the first week. Today we have

TLT: 92.30 (+0.30 this week, probably close to ex-dividend date as well. Dividend should be around 0.30)
DXY: 79.48 (+1.20 this week)

Short treasuries and short dollars would not have been a good play this week. Let's check in next week to see where we are at.
samsung1
15 years ago
my turn:
Rick's Cabaret RICK $11.47 (1/22)
Playboy PLA $3.41
LodgeNet Interactive LNET $6.01
Anheuser-Busch BUD $48.06
VCG Holding VCGH $2.12

RICK, PLA, LNET are down, while BUD and VCGH are up as of today.
samsung1
15 years ago
also as for penthouse (owned by friendfinder)

"FriendFinder Networks rescheduled its date with IPO investors Wednesday, and realtor chain IFM Investments cut its asking price, indicators the U.S. public-issuance market is going through some unwelcome hiccups in early 2010."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424…
Dougster
15 years ago
Not sure what the A:D line was last week, but I would say any stock up last week is probably worth looking into.
Dougster
15 years ago
Ok 2nd week now. Today we have

DXY: 80.21
TLT: 91.98 (+0.32 dividend) = 92.30 so effectively unchanged this week

That puts DXY up 1.91, and TLT up 0.30 including dividend.

So two very good weeks for the dollar, whereas treasuries are up but only a little bit.

We'll check in again next week to where we are.

samsung1
15 years ago
Citing Lousy Market Conditions, FriendFinder Networks Cancels IPO

http://www.techcrunch.com/2010/02/05/cit…

FriendFinder Networks Inc. (“FFN”) announced today that based on market conditions, it has chosen not to proceed with its planned initial public offering at this time until market conditions improve.
With this short statement, FriendFinder Networks has canceled its IPO plans, following a widely reported delay in trading earlier this week.

Investors are analysts were wary of the company’s plans to go public (on the New York Stock Exchange, under the symbol “FFN.”) in order to repay debt – it was reportedly paying $75 million in interest on operating profit of $45 million last year and carries a massive debt load of $471 million.

The internet holding company reported net revenue of $244.4 million in the nine months ended 30 September 2009, compared with $243.9 million in the same period a year ago. Even with this small revenue increase, filings showed sales were flat.

Florida-based FFN (formerly Penthouse Media Group) operates sites like Penthouse, Adult FriendFinder, Bondage.com, Cams.com and BigChurch.com and many more. It filed a registration statement with the SEC in December 2008, hoping to raise $460 million in the initial public offering at the time (this was later adjusted to $220 million).

Penthouse acquired Adult FriendFinder in December 2007 for approximately $400 million.

Question is what will become of the company now, and if it will stay afloat long enough for ‘market conditions to improve’.

Dougster
15 years ago
Missed a couple of weeks, but it looks like we are, approximately, where we were two weeks ago:

DXY: 80.36
TLT: 91.67 (+0.32 dividend) = 91.99 effectively.

Not sure why txtittyfan told me that it was such a bad idea to add to DXY at 78.28.

Note that TLT should pay another dividend around 0.32 next week. Will keeping checking in to see when, if ever, the dollar and treasuries start plummeting as tittyfan insists they will.



samsung1
15 years ago
Rick's Cabaret RICK was $11.47 (on 1/22)

One month later today it is at $15.45. What a great investment that would have been. They have plenty of room to grow as well. I wonder what SC chain they will buy up next? Christie's? SR? DVu? DG? PP? Kahoot's? hustler?
Dougster
15 years ago
I had a look at the RICK since March 2009. The thing is going parabolic. It will probably run for a while now, but, if we double dip it is going to be one hell of a short. For now, though, probably wanna ride aboard that freight train. :-)
Dougster
15 years ago
This week we have:

DXY: 80.76
TLT: 91.27 (+0.64 dividend) = 91.99 effectively

The dollar and treasuries still aren't crashing the way TxTittyFan said over a year ago they would. In fact, those who went counter to his "professional" advice would have made some good money.
Dougster
15 years ago
^^^ typo: TLT effective price this week (including dividends) = 91.91
samsung1
15 years ago
RICK is buying out a struggling strip club chain VCGH. VCGH has similar revenue as RICK but profits much less. For example, in 2009 VCGH revenue was $55 million and $1 million profit. RICK $75 million revenue and $13 million profit.

I think VCGH will either bring down RICK and hurt them...or if RICK can make them profitable they will be a huge boost. I would say this is the largest acquisition RICK has made, no? Before they would just buy up individual clubs or small chains...If they can pull this off successfully (which I think they will) they will probably start buying up more and more chains like Christie's cabaret.
SnakePlissken
15 years ago
This seems like the place to ask this investment question.

I've calculated that my tax returns this year will amount to about $2,000.

I was thinking of taking that and some of my savings and investing roughly $1,000 each in Netflix, and Coinstar (the owners of Redbox) since this year Blockbuster will probably fold and those two will gain almost all of Blockbuster's former video rental market share. Both of their stocks also show a consistent upward trajectory for the past 2-3 years.

I was also thinking purchasing $1,000 of Apple, since they seem to be coming out with more and more lucrative products as the years go by.

So, would that be a wise investment of $3,000 or should I just spend it on time in the Champagne room?
Clubber
15 years ago
Champagne room.
samsung1
15 years ago
You guys should check out http://www.trefis.com//

In the wake of financial turmoil,
MIT engineers and Wall Street analysts
got together to create TREFIS
samsung1
15 years ago
http://techcrunch.com/2009/11/17/come-up…

Have you ever wanted to be a Wall Street analyst or come up with your own discounted cash flow model for a publicly traded company? Me neither, but I like the idea of tweaking a few variables in a company’s business model and seeing how that might change a its stock price. A new site launching today called Trefis lets you do just that.

Dougster
15 years ago
samsung: Sounds like RICK is in the early stages of building a strip club empire to rival the DV. (We can only hope.)
SnakePlissken
15 years ago
Clubber, are you kidding or do you really think it's a bad idea?
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