discussion comment
4 years ago
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gammanu95My casual drinking is your alcohol poisoning.
New York, and New Jersey have far lower testing positivity rates. There's no comparison. Florida is NOT ready to open up.
discussion comment
4 years ago
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gammanu95My casual drinking is your alcohol poisoning.
Florida also has 11% testing positivity rate, more than twice the national average:
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/florida
As I said, you're celebrating the death the a lot more people.
discussion comment
4 years ago
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gammanu95My casual drinking is your alcohol poisoning.
Scroll down for the 7-day average deaths:
https://covidtracking.com/data/state/florida
discussion comment
4 years ago
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gammanu95My casual drinking is your alcohol poisoning.
7-day averages
discussion comment
4 years ago
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gammanu95My casual drinking is your alcohol poisoning.
I just looked at the 7-averages in Florida, average of about 100 deaths per day. A lot of people will die. Yeah Floridah!!
discussion comment
4 years ago
Lately it's early riser for cycling because of the smoke and ozone. Sad, and almost like being back in S Calif.
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4 years ago
What is it you agree with? That the Johns Hopkins numbers are deliberately faked to make Trump look bad?
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4 years ago
@BabyDoc: "While the US numbers are inflated by the fear mongers..."
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I guess the death toll published by Johns Hopkins, probably the finest teaching hospital in the US, carries more weight than some kook on a stripper site.
@BabyDoc references some Oxford study, but only provides a link to The Sun -- which carries about the same weight as the National Enquirer.
Same old tired point by the OP and BabyDoc. The overall infection fatality rate is about 0.17% according to the same CDC report across all age groups. If we use 0.17% and 60% of the population to get to herd immunity, that's about 340,000 deaths. We're already over 200,000 deaths so we may well get to that death toll, absent a vaccine.
Thanks for the interminable, content-free, rant.
discussion comment
4 years ago
From @Richard's post: “The American people should have a voice in the selection of their next Supreme Court Justice. Therefore, this vacancy should not be filled until we have a new president.”
--Mitch McConnell, February 2016
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Translation, and this is not a troll:
"I don't want Barack Obama to select the next SC justice. If I allow the vote on the Senate floor, there may be some defections from some of the GOP Senators. I have the power to prevent Garland from being considered; therefore I intend to do just that."
discussion comment
4 years ago
Biden doesn't need Florida to win the election.
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4 years ago
It's very close in Florida, with Biden having a slight lead as of today. The polling aggregate has Biden with about a 60% chance of taking Florida as of today according to 538. Trump has lost ground with seniors in Florida -- but he's not doing well with Hispanics, especially Cubans who buy into the preposterous idea that Biden is socialist. Would Trump pick Lagoa for the Supreme Court with the sole purpose of helping him win Florida? Yes, of course, he would.
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4 years ago
@Mark-
If this continues, at some point we'll lose our independent judiciary. Maybe that's what you want?
Speaking of which, I'm very interested to see how the Obamacare ruling will play out in November. It's a profoundly stupid lawsuit and if the ACA is overturned it will create chaos for something like 20M on Medicaid expansion and another 50M with pre-existing conditions.
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4 years ago
Richard, the Democrats will always have trouble with the Supreme Court.
I think this is obvious, but as things stand, Democrats are concentrated in urban areas and Republicans in rural areas. So the Senate will reflect a whiter and more conservative pool of voters (think TUSCL). The Senate confirms supreme court justices -- so the Democrats are at a disadvantage.
That's life in America. Too lazy to Google, but I think McConnell was elected by only 2% of the population. Yet he has enormous power to shape the direction of the country for generations.
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4 years ago
Not 99% of the time, that's your absurd take on it. I've had something like a dozen SBs and something like 50 M&Gs. I don't keep spreadsheets so it's just an estimate. Arrangements have been anywhere from 3 months to 15 months.
Texting upfront is a waste of time IMO and it doesn't matter whether there's one picture or ten.
Notice, I'm not telling you that my style is right or wrong. Although it sounds like you'd be better off with Backpage, if it still existed.
Best arrangement since she was exactly my type physically, because of common interests, and because she had everything in place for a successful future. You probably wouldn't understand, but it's a very common mindset with the men over on Reddit.
To each his own.
discussion comment
4 years ago
I agree with @McNulty. Just own it. It's like the guys here who dance in circles trying to justify cheating on their wives. It's immoral, dishonest, and fun -- but be honest and own it.
I guess we'll have the wild-west from here on out. Hope the Democrats play dirty, too.
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4 years ago
No, the number of pictures has been irrelevant in my experience.
My ATF from 2016 posted only one picture, a full-length bikini shot near the beach. I still have her picture on my phone. She also posted hardly anything in her profile. I did a reverse image search to see if she lifted the picture from a modeling site.
When I met her at Starbucks, she looked exactly like her picture. Gorgeous. Turns out she was an economics major at top-ten school, and only in town for the summer. It was by far my best arrangement.
I know you were mocking me @RattDog -- but that's why I hardly do any texting upfront and insist on a quick, unpaid, meet@greet. I go on many M&Gs for that reason.
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4 years ago
McNulty: No matter what the composition of the Court, I bet Obamacare will *not* be overturned by the S.C. It's a bullshit lawshit without any merit and any changes will be made by Congress.
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4 years ago
RBG was a brilliant and magnificent person. While she's not a family member, there's a sense of grief. Tiny little woman who graduated first in her class at Cornell and Columbia law. After leaving law school, she couldn't get a job with NY law firms, facing discrimination as a woman and a jew. She went on to be the first woman to get tenure at Columbia Law and, of course, the 2nd female Supreme Court justice. Just an amazing and courageous human being. She probably suffered a lot with colon, lung, pancreatic cancer. Wish she could have lived a little longer.
discussion comment
4 years ago
Second sentence should read:
I posted data from the Economist. Educated voters left the GOP in droves in 2016, causing pollsters to oversample from the pool of educated voters. That's what happened. Deal with it.
discussion comment
4 years ago
@Windex wrote: "What degree(s) do you hold?"
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I have a degree from the U. of Calcutta school of Veterinary Science. While I was there I did some pioneering research on combining human and bovine DNA, in vitro. I played a principal role in the science that created @Meathead's wife.
I posted data from the Economist. The post-mortem analysis of the 2016. Educated voters left the GOP in droves, causing pollsters to oversample from the pool of educated voters. That's what happened. Deal with it; that's what happened.
And @GammaNu, go fuck yourself you obnoxious piece of shit.
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4 years ago
No way can any Supreme Court Justice get approved before January"
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Why not?
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4 years ago
@Windex: "He (Silver) is a communist."
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Lol, sure he is, nutcase.
According to the Economist, the post-mortem of the polls in 2016 showed polling errors that occurred because of oversampling from the pool of educated voters.
The issue is that there was an unexpected surge in support for Hillary Clinton and the Democrats among educated voters in 2016 that didn't exist in 2012:
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/11/11/poorly-educated-voters-hold-the-keys-to-the-white-house
"How far did this educational divide determine the outcome of the 2016 election? To answer this question, Michael Sances of Temple University collected data on presidential-election results and education levels in each of America’s 3,000-plus counties from 1972 to 2016. Mr Sances finds that the gap in support for Democratic candidates between the highest- and the lowest-educated counties grew significantly between 2012 and 2016, from about 16 percentage points to 28 percentage points (see chart). This disparity has grown especially quickly in midwestern swing states. In Iowa, for example, Hillary Clinton won 66% of the vote in better-educated counties, up from Barack Obama’s 61% share in 2012, but only 27% in less-educated ones, down from 46%."
Also, if you look at the 2016 data, there were wild undulations in the predictions from June -> November, with lots of undecided voters, making election day very hard to predict. Things look much different in 2020 and Biden's lead in the polls looks nearly flat over the past three or four months.
Anything could still happen...
discussion comment
4 years ago
Agreed
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4 years ago
This one is only for @mark
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
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4 years ago
https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president
https://ig.ft.com/us-election-2020/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/