discussion comment
2 years ago
For the April-June second quarter of 2022, total credit card debt rose a staggering $46 billion, the biggest jump in 20 years.
Something that can’t go on forever, won’t.
discussion comment
2 years ago
The Inflation Reduction Act has passed the Senate and will be signed into law by Biden. Small businesses will have 80,000 new IRS agents to audit them to death. New green energy laws will raise, not lower, the price of fuel. Hundreds of Billions in new government spending. Complicated regulations for us to comply with.
Tell me again how this reduces inflation.
discussion comment
2 years ago
“Oftentimes bodies / workers (especially with experience) are exactly what is needed.”
If you are digging ditches or painting a house, that’s true. Higher level work requires complex coordination of tasks. If you add five new coders to a ten man software team, the most productive experienced coders will spend all their time answering stupid questions from the newbies. Productivity will plunge. Deadlines will be missed.
discussion comment
2 years ago
When nuclear is criticized as dirty and unsafe, Chernobyl is usually mentioned. Modern nuclear plants are vastly better designed and built than Chernobyl which didn’t even have a concrete containment structure or automatic shut off.
Nothing is 100% safe, but the newest generation of nuclear plants ( if ever allowed to be built ) is pretty close to 100%.
discussion comment
2 years ago
I worked security at a music club that two local bike gangs used to frequent. We never had a problem with them. We didn’t hassle them. They didn’t cause problems.
The biggest problem we ever had was a semi-pro football team that came in one night looking for trouble. We asked them to leave and were polite about it. Having a cop at the front door also helped.
The main problem we had was the occasional college kid trying to imitate a tough guy. They were always drunk and had no idea how to fight.
discussion comment
2 years ago
It’s been clear for a year that something weird was going on in China. The puzzle pieces are now clear. About 80% of China’s wealth is in real estate ( they don’t have stock investment like we do ) and real estate is crashing. All their real estate is highly leveraged and banks are beginning to fail. It’s a classic Ponzi scheme. The much vaunted Chinese middle class is about to disappear along with their consumption of goods.
They are an export economy that isn’t exporting anywhere near as much as they did 2 years ago. It was blamed on CoVid but something else was going on.
Without exports, they don’t get dollars. Without dollars, they can’t import food or energy. Without energy, their manufacturing shuts down. For 15 years, people have been predicting this house of cards would tumble. It may finally be happening.
And, without Chinese parts, American manufacturing will grind to a halt ( and, countries like Germany lose their primary customer ).
The problem with a global supply chain is, if one nation fails, they all do.
discussion comment
2 years ago
Even if renewables account for half the power ( which I doubt ), there is no way to store the power at night or windless days. You need a base of fossil fuel or nuclear or you face frequent blackouts. Just ask Texas.
discussion comment
2 years ago
“trying to communicate and get responses from them is a complete nightmare.”
There was a classic book in software development called “ The mythical man month”. Throwing bodies at a problem doesn’t solve anything. It complicates the communication channels exponentially. Adding bodies to the IRS will make communication even worse.
discussion comment
2 years ago
Watch what happens with Germany over the next 6 months. In 2019, they were an industrial super power. However, they have to import their food and energy, as well as chips for their auto industry, while their economy relies on selling sophisticated equipment and cars to China.
They are in free fall. They are fighting for survival. For them, the world has truly changed.
discussion comment
2 years ago
The world, as we knew it, ended in 2019. It will recover. At least the US will recover, but it is and will be a very different place.
discussion comment
2 years ago
The next shoe to drop, worldwide, will be food shortages. Just wait until you see how that increases the number of economic refugees at our Southern border.
discussion comment
2 years ago
Bernie Sanders, yes, Bernie, speaking about the Inflation Reduction Act:
“ according to the CBO, and other economic organizations that study this bill, it will, in fact, have a minimal impact on inflation.”
“If anybody thinks that as a result of this bill we’re going to see lower prices for Medicare, you are mistaken. It ain’t going to happen next year, the year after, or the year after,”
discussion comment
2 years ago
It’s so easy being a Democrat. If anyone discovers an inconvenient fact, you call them a racist, a right wing extremist, or say their source is bullshit.
When you do that, all your fellow democrats nod their heads in agreement. Unfortunately for you, more and more independents are wise to your parlor tricks.
discussion comment
2 years ago
It’s pretty well established that there is a maximum tax rate at which tax revenue is maximized. I seem to recall it’s something like 18% of GDP. If you raise rates above that, some businesses will simply close and others will do whatever they ( legally ) can to lower their tax liability.
It’s clear we’ve gone beyond that maximum rate. The IRS has become more like a mafia protection racket than a tax collector.
Incidentally, the IRS has recently purchased millions of rounds of ammunition. They have explained why the IRS needs ammunition.
discussion comment
2 years ago
In China, the Communist Party is now placing agents in the homes of Uyghur people to prevent couples from having sex and making babies. They aren’t hiding their genocide.
One day, IRS agents may be placed in small businesses to make sure they comply. Apparently, 1984 was more than a novel.
review comment
2 years ago
It’s stripper economics. When demand goes down, you RAISE prices, unlike what every economics textbook tells you.
discussion comment
2 years ago
Before CoVid and chip shortages, the average new car sale only generated $1,500 to $3,000 profit for the dealer. Now, they make 3 or 4 times that with the mark ups.
discussion comment
2 years ago
A lot of the used car dealers who target people with bad credit have trackers hidden on the car. They can sell and repossess the same car 3 or 4 times in a year. They can make $10,000 profit by selling a $5,000 car multiple times.
discussion comment
2 years ago
The last time we had a housing crash, in 2008, it took 2 years for prices to bottom out. It took that long for most sellers to accept the new reality and lower their price. Sometimes, it took the bank to do it for them. Once people decide “ My house is worth $X”, it’s tough to shake them off it.
discussion comment
2 years ago
If you look at Zeihan’s predictions, here is what America looks like in 10 years. The North American continent is largely self sufficient, the standard of living is good, prices are a bit higher, and we have full employment.
The manufacturing base will see a massive increase with highly automated factories in the US, lower wage manufacturing in Mexico, natural resources from Canada, food production in the Midwest, energy independence, and rapid GDP growth as a result of investment in manufacturing.
Much of the rest of the world will be in chaos. We will have much less involvement in their affairs than we do now because we don’t need them.
discussion comment
2 years ago
Here’s another interesting stat. China just admitted they have 100 million fewer young people than were shown on their official census. If you take the current population, with the current birth and death rates, and project it forward to 2050, China’s population will be half what it is now. And, the average will be old. And, it will still be shrinking.
All this talk about China dominating the 21st century is pretty funny when you consider that.
discussion comment
2 years ago
I don’t beg.
discussion comment
2 years ago
It depends what you mean by corporate bailouts.if you mean reducing corporate taxes across the board, I approve. In fact, I’d like to replace the corporate tax with import duties and tariffs.
If you mean the government subsiding “good” corporations and penalizing “ bad” corporations, that’s a horrible idea.
I opposed all pandemic handouts including the PPP. I also opposed the 2 year lockdown which gave government an excuse for meddling with the economy. The lockdown and the resulting government intervention in the economy fucked us over royally.
discussion comment
2 years ago
You beat me to it
“the number of Americans not in the labor force -- no job and not looking for one -- climbed above the 100,000,000 mark again, settling at 100,051,000 in July. That's a 239,000 increase from June; and it follows an increase of 510,000 from May to June, when the number rose to 99,812,000.”
How many of those 100,000,000 not working are getting government assistance ?
discussion comment
2 years ago
The Vail School District ( Tucson ) has a welding training program for high school students. Every graduate of that program got a job with salaries between $70,000 and $90,000. Eighteen year old kids.
Meanwhile, Gender Studies graduates from elite colleges are living in their parent’s basement, working part time at Starbucks.
Which one of those groups is smarter ?