Recession

Under a Republican president, a recession is 2 negative quarters of GDP growth. Under a Democratic president, it requires more "nuance" than that.

We aren't in a recession right now by any metric, but several indicators like unemployment, an inverted yield curve, and consumer debt suggest that one might be coming. You can see the dark clouds but never know exactly when the rain will start.

I've been offered extras from non-extras girls. Dead-bang recession signal.

A pretty smart investor, Warren Buffett, dumped half of his Apple stock and is sitting on $277B in cash.
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance…

If you look at Afterhours, stocks today (5-Aug) are flat to up a tad. Unemployment is up to 4.3% and Under-Employment is at 7.8%. Market has been severely concentrated in the Mag 7 and really over-sold. Russell 2000 was going well, and is now down 20% from highs 2 weeks ago. August is always a sketchy month. Recession? Best advice: Buy Low, Sell High.

As Mike710 noted, Warren Buffet dumped 50% of Apple and is sitting on $277B in cash.

Part of the market freak-out the past few days is a possible POTUS Harris (meaning 4 more years of shitty Bidenomics), Japan tanked by over 12% with interest rates going up and so many had gambled with the Yen got squeezed globally. There is no way a Harris/Obama WH could regenerate the economy, only Trump will be able to. Look at Obama's v. Trump's policies, and yes, Obama's crew is running the WH. Do you really think Harris knows anything about Micro/Macro Economics and Money Supply as from the price of weed?

I'd call this more of a correction. if the Fed were to drop their rate by .5%, people will freak thinking we are in or headed for a Recession and will cause one. The problem is, quarterly statements have been good the past 9 months with a few exceptions like Intel.

again, Buy Low, Sell High, and pay taxes on your gains.

You know a couple months ago I dumped a lot of money into AIVSX. Like a fuck ton. I think it's gonna be rough coming up here. Having regrets now.

I didn't want get ate up by inflation was the thinking. "It's not timing the market it's time in the market" they say. I know, I know but fucking bloody hell.

I don't time the market. Retirement funds don't get touched, and even my discretionary funds sit in an index fund not to get fucked with. I've been in and around the markets, as both professional and amateur, long enough to know timing is a sucker's bet.

We're seeing unemployment tick up, so the days of low inflation and unemployment together look to be gone. Most jobs created in the last few years have been either in government, or public-sector-dependent areas like health care, and at the cost of a lot of debt. We're going to pay the piper soon on that; we're refinancing low interest rate debt with high, more than other indebted countries (like Japan) our debt is owed to foreign holders.

My bet is we're going to see inflation that's not going to go away for a while, regardless of the November elections. Possibly a stagflation. But I think it would be worse under Democrats. Biden's 2025 budget is 50% above this year's, and that's before their rectal-brained plans for student debt relief (aka plumbers bailing out gender studies grads) and adding even more entitlements. Trump's pre-COVID economy was better because he mostly stayed the fuck out of the way.

I still think Trump wins and GOP takes the Senate and keeps the House. The Harris honeymoon won't last 3 months, even if the Dems are furiously jacking each other off right now. But that doesn't mean some big renaissance of conservative policy...Trump won't have a majority for a sweeping policy agenda.

Sometime in the future there will be a recession.

To be serious: get with a good financial mgt company like Fidelity, and listen to what they advised. I have 33% of my account in their Managed Services and 66% in my Brokerage I manage with solid name companies. Fidelity (or whomever) can help advise you on a strategy that fits YOUR needs.

The only gurantee it seems like is market volatily will never go away. Doom and gloom will always lead the airways akin to if it bleeds it leads. Blockbuster job reports and the market is fearful the fed will keep rates locked. Market crash and fed drops interest rates but people are fearful of a recession.I say fuck it. Limit your time in front of a computer, write down your goals, save a little, and dont always make sure to have a young latina bounce on your lap to keep things in perspective.

*and always make sure

Recession is when your neighbor loses his job. Depression is when you lose yours. And recovery is when [Kamala Harris] loses [hers].
― Ronald Reagan

But wouldn't NOT having a young Latina on speed dial be a better financial decision?

We're not in a recession yet, but a lot of signs point to one coming.

Right now it's a tale of two economies. White collar workers have benefited from the government's blowout deficit spending, but blue collar workers have been walloped by the resulting inflation. It's not sustainable. Consumer discretionary and finance companies are already warning that more consumers are pulling back and starting to fall behind on their debt payments. This will inevitably spread as the various massive government spending bills work their way out of the system and the sugar high comes to an end.

IMO the market tanked yesterday because it was priced for perfection, which means that one negative data blip (unemployment in this case) was enough to sound an alarm. I suspect this won't be the last rout we see in the coming months.

Mortgages hit a 12 year high in late payment/default status and automobiles a 14 year high. Things are great. Imagine when people lose their jobs how great it will be. More particularly in view of next year's massive tax increase on the horizon.

Eh, Recessions come hard and fast and from where it’s least expected.

If every pundit out there is screaming, there’s a recession coming…. You best believe it’s probably a bad prediction

I've been saying this for at least a year (well, the quants I work with have been saying this) that market fundamentals are bad. The actual recession under Biden was predicted to have more knock on effects, but I personally think the covid money was still making its way through the system. It was bad enough Trump spent so much money on Covid (I was always against it), but with Biden turning it up to an 11 (inflation reduction act -- my ass), no one will get us out of this. From a high level econ perspective, we need to increase our market and loosen barriers to entry and maybe we can grow out of this turmoil.

The market is a house of cards built on manipulated data and obfuscated bad debt. There's a depression coming.

This is how markets work, I see a lot of folks worrying about the wrong things, if you’re a value investor and focus on quality assets, the fluctuations of the daily market don’t mean as much, the long term trend is still going up.

Remember the higher the value, the wider the swings, focusing on the daily gains and losses is counterproductive.

The entire market has been in a bubble 2008. Trump's economic successes were real and tangible, apart from but still aided by that bubble, as he restructured internation trade agreements. The bubble expanded rapidly after lockdowns were lifted and people began spending their COVID stimulus checks. Remember, these checks did not come from surplus or savings by the federal government. The government just printed additional checks from existing capital and subdivided the value of your pre-pandemic saved dollars amongst all these millions of checks.

The markets grew in dollar value, but not in relative value. The hands on the levers of power are working to keep the dollar value high to lure in new investors who believe they are flush with cash, but do not understand that their cash is not worth as much as they think it is.

Fluctuations are normal in the market, and dollar value of swings will increase as the market value increases - but not the percentages. Even quality assets like the S&P 500 and DJIA are hitting their lowest point in years. We are looking at more than a correction. This is the beginning of long, downward trend as people realize they were lied to by the media and federal government, while inflation and lack of product availability continues to grow and shrink the value of the dollars which people hold.

^ If you were actually checking the record for volitality, you’d have known the percentages haven’t changed much in the last few decades.

Gam, Idk but I think you're going a little over the top now, lol.

Yes the market is getting a bit frothy now, but a P/E ratio for the S&P 500 of around 27 times earnings is hardly indicative of a massive bubble by historical standards. Simply put, stock prices are largely a function of company earnings and these companies have seen big jumps in earnings over the last few years.

Will we see a recession? I think so. After years of artificially cheap money and blowout deficit spending, the economy needs a reset. The current conditions are not sustainable. The real estate market is definitely in a bubble and the stock market is, as I said, frothy with plenty of room to drop if company earnings start to get squeezed.

But I don't see something as dramatic as a depression or even a Great Recession looming. The #1 hallmark of a large scale economic meltdown is the collapse of financing activity, often due to severe banking system distress. There are just no indications that this is on the horizon this time.

Yes defaults will likely increase to a degree, but the banks as a whole are much better capitalized than they were previously. Also there is no major potential trigger event likely, such as a run on the banks (Great Depression) or massive mortgage rate resets on badly underwritten loans resulting in the complete collapse of the mortgage securities market (Great Recession).

Yes, I think some temporary pain is coming. But like 25 said, if you hold the stocks of good companies with strong fundamentals, it's just a waiting game while the economy resets.

^ That's your take, equally valid as mine. Time will tell.

It’s ebb and flow, and we are at the start of the ebb, which is what the fed had in mind. Cheaper hjs on the horizon!

@rickdugan - I've been calling a recession but I'm a pessimist at heart. There are a lot of things that can go awry like consumer debt (which is now being used to finance necessities rather than luxuries), national debt being refinanced with higher rates and debt service costs going unsustainable, demographic problems around the world, commercial real estate but I don't see the lit fuse that can cause a crash.

Residential real estate is crashing in some overbuilt places but it's extremely local. Boston, inside I-95, is backstopped. I don't see a nationwide issue here.

But I agree that trying to time the market is a sucker's bet. Anyone can succeed during boom times, but as Buffett said, when the tide is out you can see who's swimming naked.

Just don't put yourself in a position where you need to withdraw cash during a bust.

^ “it's not about timing the market, but about time in the market,”

Predictions like these are a fool’s errand.

Bippity, boppity, bacon!!

Actually the biggest reason to think the shit will hit the fan is that Jim Cramer is telling you to buy. He's a complete idiot.