OT: Restaurant Apocalypse

My guess would be that it’s more location dependent than ever, in my area South Florida the casual restaurants are doing pretty well with a line for dinner mostly from Wednesday through Saturday and late Sunday afternoon is usually noisy and uncomfortable with many families with young children. Where are you located.

I have been traveling all over the Midwest and West.

speaking for myself... i go to restaurants and fast food much less now. iv'e better ways to spend my money.

I am seeing similar. The other thing that's continued to impact "in restaurant" attendance is use of food delivery services.

My experience mostly aligns with 25's. Around here many places are still busy. Even off season. There has been some shift in preferences, but in general most places seem to be okay.

I personally go less often, as I feel like quality has dropped considerably at a lot of the more casual places, especially chains.

Restaurants in New England seem to be doing great. We went out at 12:30 for Portuguese food in New Bedford and by 12;40 they were slammed, and a line was forming. Tonight, we have a 7:30 reservation which I wanted to be at 6:30 so I called last Wednesday, and this was the best they could do. My wife is a great cook and it's hard to spend money on food unless it is unique.

And it’s affecting fast food also in my opinion.

Depending on what route I take to work I may pass one two McDonald’s. 10-15 years ago, there used to be long lines at any early morning McD’s drive-thru. Some mornings, there’s not a single car.

I’ve seen reports they menu prices have doubled in 10 years

With Sinclair being in the Midwest mostly and me being in the mid-Atlantic region - I see similar experiences to his.

I’ve always said “most restaurants are busy on the weekends, but are they on a Tuesday night?” I think that’s what it takes to survive these days.

I dine out a lot less because of less traveling. I recently read an article how the lunch hour is officially dead for restaurants because of several factors, but the main ones being remote/at home work and most customers don’t want to pay $30 for a sit down lunch that used to be $15 so they brown bag it and save their money for the weekends. Most restaurants in the article that were surveyed said the same thing. Dead during the week but uptick on the weekends.

This trend of remote work has totally decimated almost all the restaurants that were open for lunch in the DC proper area… but restaurants are growing in the suburbs as those remote workers now have a need to escape their homes sometimes in the afternoon.

As for me, I’m dining out a lot less locally because most of the restaurants food quality has dropped so much in the last few years. I recently went to an Italian place near me that’s always been “decent” never “exceptional” but it’s close and I’m trying to support a local business. I swear I have had Marie Callendar microwave pasta dinners that tasted better than what they served me.

I think in 2022 people were all pent up from being stuck at home and had stimulus money to burn so they went out full force to restaurants and bars. Some businesses even expanded their footprint thinking this was the new “new” after COVID lockdowns. Now two years later with inflation still high, less discretionary income to play with, people are staying home unless they know they’re going to get a really good experience dining out.

So Barb and Ted are going to skip a trip to Applebees, Olive Gardeb and another to Chilis and splurge and go to Capital Grille instead.

I see corporate feed-o-raunts struggling but higher-end individual-chef restaurants here in touristy New Orleans are doing the same as ever, it seems. Tourism is down generally, but within the tourist sector, the restaurant sub-sector isn't doing particularly worse than any other sub-sector. I wouldn't shed much of a culinary tear if Applebee's went out of business, though I did condescend to a Boston Market once in a while. Part of what they could do to stave off their economic difficulties would be, to stop bilking their staff so miserably that they have such rapid turnover (since their business model seems universally to have assumed quite wrongly that table-waiting can be treated as a non-skilled entry-level position); and maybe after that mind-bending innovation, they could also start serving good food. But that's probably too much to ask.

Even though many of these chains don’t make exceptional food (Chili’s, Applebee’s, Red Lobster, etc) it will be a bummer if many of them die over the next few years. Outside of very urban areas they provide food and work for quite a few people. My observation is that many moms and dads rarely cook for their kids these days so if these restaurants dry up and many people have no idea how to cook how does that work.

I know several families who get take out or go out for dinner 4-5 nights a week. No wonder why obesity is a massive issue and overall health of Americans is bleak.

You're right, that these places are a cultural main-stay. People depend on the Applebee's-type setting for employment and for eating, the whole system is geared around it, the commute and the amount of time spent at work and when the after-school activities start and so forth. Waffle House and IHOP serve kids at a very low price and effectively are after-school baby-sitters in some locations. I wonder if individually owned places will arise to replace them when there is demand. The locally owed diner could make a comeback?

Try to glass half full it, maybe all these waitresses will start dancing.

Right now what's coming out of the white house is the economy is actually AWESOME, your all just too fucking stupid to figure it out, so listen to us.

The main reason you don't see as many younger people, especially young families, in these restaurants is inflation. Many restaurants have doubled their prices in the past 5-10 years, especially after the covid shut downs, but wages, especially for lower middle class and below, haven't kept up with the rising costs. A lot of the 20 somethings and 30 somethings that I know have talked about how expensive it is for them to take their family out to even fast food restaurants let alone the casual restaurants.

Even someplace like Applebee's can easily be $50-75 for a family of 5 and that doesn't fit into the budget of many young families. They tend to reserve paying that much for a meal for only special occasions rather than just a random night out each week. When they are willing to splurge on a night out for the family, this generation seems to prefer to go to a locally owned restaurant instead of a national chain even if it costs them $75-100 instead of $50-75. Since it is a more rare treat they would prefer the better quality, better service and better atmosphere at a local restaurant instead of a chain.

I know that I go to locally owned places a lot more than the chain places anymore. The price gap between a place like Olive Garden vs a local restaurant has narrowed since the family owned places aren't raising their prices as quickly. The quality has also stayed higher at family owned places compared to the dropping quality at many chains. The sailme is true of fast food. It is about the same price for me to stop by a local deli for a Ruben and chips as it would be to get a value meal from Wendy's.

There are only two types of places where the casual chains tend to be doing well. Areas where the economy is stronger and the younger families are making better money seem to be the most successful. The other is rural places along the highways where there isn't enough of a local population to support local restaurants but there is enough business from travelers that want to go to a place where they know what to expect rather than taking a chance with a local restaurant that may be terrible.

After I found out I was diabetic last year, I completely changed my diet and as part of that, I go out to eat far less than I used to. I spend more on groceries now, but way less on restaurants, so it's a wash moneywise or I might even be spending less overall.

Now since I'm eating out less, I much prefer to go to mom and pop type places than chains when I do. Since I live in the Boston area, there is no shortage of good to great local restaurants.

I can say that from Sinclair's list in my area all the remaining Boston Markets closed, two of the Buffalo Wild Wings recently closed, there is only one Outback left, and all the Pizza Huts south of Boston closed a while ago already.

I've been avoiding the chains for many years. I never liked Applebee’s, Chilis, TGIF (it had an interesting singles bar genesis in Manhattan, look it up, with a guy who wanted to meet girls with zero restaurant/bar experience), and similars. What use to be low-cost restaurants have priced themselves out of business due to inflation as they already ran on tight margins and had to raise prices. Their typical customer tends to be lower income than Del Frisco's diners who have a lot of discretionary spending abilities and can suck it up.

Even Red Lobsters are closing.

I too when I go out, I'll do a locally owned place, as crosscheck said, mom and pops. Boston has a lot of great places from the days I traveled there.

Hell, I went to McDonalds last December or so when they had the McRibs. Three McRibs and small fries was $18.00. I went to Shake Shack, just once, and was out ~$18 for a burger, fries and a coke. Fuck THAT! If I want something fast, I look for Arby’s, Chik Filet (if the line is short) or a Culvers. I don’t do lines like at In-N-Out.

The ones doing well, not low cost, but not Del Frisco’s scary pricing, are brew pubs and gastros.

When home I’ve taken to going to a grocery store and getting a 16 oz tenderloin ($26) or salmon (not Atlantic/farm raised), Heirloom tomatoes ($4/pound), mozzarella and croutons for dinner. I can get 3 good meals which would cost more than just one dinner at a good restaurant. I’m eating at home a LOT more, and I think I’m eating better. I learned to cook from my grandmother. I use to travel 100K miles a year for several years from like 2001 to 2007, now not so much.

How a low-income, hard working family of 4 can go out now for a treat once in a while is beyond me.

People are turned of being price-gouged, and are choosing to forego restaurants. Beyond that, some skew in the opposite direction, and choose to pay a premium to order delivery. Either way, dining rooms are much less crowded.

There have been a few restaurants close in my area but it seems that they reopen under a different name and in addition to that other new restaurants keep popping up all over my area. It may be the fact that several big companies have recently opened up here and that the neighboring county is really a mess financially.

It just gotten too expensive for what you get quite frankly. I live in a small town that just closed 4 of its 15 restaurants. They all closed due to rising cost and lack of business. And they were all local, non chain places. We don't have a steakhouse, Italian or seafood. It's all mexican, one local brew pub and a Ruby Tuesday. Every time my husband and I think about going out, we eventually don't because there just isn't anywhere worth the money. It's easily 25 for a burger or 50 for a slice of prime rib. Half the reason our date nights turned into strip club trips was because there just isn't anywhere to go or anything else to do around here. Would much rather spend money at a club having a good time vs an overpriced meal at a mediocre restaurant. When we do go out to dinner, there's never a wait and most places are empty. I do think the industry is dying out.

I’m not even sure what the “hip” or “trendy” restaurants are now. Certainly just not be any chains. All the chains mentioned are thought of by Gen-Z as their grandparent’s restaurants.

I can remember in the late 80’s early 90’s one could not find a seat at a Red Lobster on Sunday after church. And now it’s bankrupt

On the plus side I had linguini in a champagne garlic cream sauce with lobster, scallops and shrimp last night at a chef owned restaurant that was beyond incredible. The food scene in Rhode Island is as good as anywhere else on the planet.

“All the chains mentioned are their grandparent’s restaurants.”

FYP. Most of the restaurants mentioned serve the same or similar food. More than being overpriced, it’s boring. I live in a growth area and there are restaurants closing all the time, but we have more new restaurants than we have closings. And they are better. They may be regional chains but they skew to more specialty or ethnic food. Mexican is huge. Same for upscale Chinese, Korean, Mediterranean. If you want cheap, there are a ton of Vietnamese pho places. There are also a lot of smash burger upscale burger places. Inflation is a big factor in the decision to not eat out, but like someone else said, who wants to pay more money for boring food you can just easily cook at home?

Popeye's Chicken is one I've personally noticed- was sometimes a change of pace place to go. Several on the list I'm not shedding a tear over, one case (Boston Market) i got Montezumas Revenge from 2 different locations. I haven't noticed any Outback's near me closing. I suspect that the growing popularity of Uber Eats and working from home may be another factor besides inflation that's driving the decline of dining out.

@Muddy maybe the waitresses will start dancing -- yup good point. Also

@Muddy your point about the White House. Yeah, although I vote Left (generally) I'm extremely disappointed in how the Biden administration continues to insist that the economy is doing well. OK OK, so excess corporate profits are indeed at record levels. Now can you please notice the fact that rent and food are literally unaffordable on a standard salary? And that people with two masters degrees are having to share apartments and moonlight? And that the American Dream of owning a home is gone for an entire generation? And that for all these crimes, your excess corporate profits ARE THE CULPRIT?

In Phoenix the highest US grossing Applebee’s location at Central & Camelback is being demolished, being replaced with a local brand called The Henry. I don’t care about Applebee’s but I do love my baby back ribs at Chilis. I blame inflation, but also the increased use of food delivery. I get super annoyed when I walk into a fast food place and stand at the counter waiting to be served while they work on assembling orders for DoorDash, etc.

Wah, corporate profits, wah. It's not 50 million illegals, wah. It's not lazy people on welfare, wah. Its corporate profits. Inflation prevents people from buying a home at 8% interest rates because young people are weak, lazy progressives. My first mortgage was 15.8% and my pay as an ada was 25k a year in 1983.

@skibum609 "my pay as an 25k a year in 1983" That amount approximates to $78,500 in 2024 (according to amortization.com). Current average ADA salary is $35,000 in my jurisdiction. Literally less than half what you made. Your own numbers prove your lack of insight.

in-n-out has a good burger at under $6. walk in and get it ‘animal style’ ( don’t do the drive thru. it’s too messy to eat in the car anyway).

harder to people watch with people in their cars... i usually always walk in. better sight lines.

some of the chains you listed are old time clunkers that have never updated their menu, food or interior design. Times change, eating habits change, as does style.

The GEN Z wants avocado toast for breakfast, bad chipotle Mexican food for lunch and a poki bowl for dinner.

the days of endless shrimp is gone, and George the ocean is calling, 'they want their shrimp back'

BTW, I am amazed at In&Out's prices - heck of a deal there and the burger is the same size as always.

Lmao Book all that proves is that where you live people don't give a shit about law enforcement. Starting pay for an ada here is $72,000.00 so except for the fact that interest rates on mortgages are less than half now compared to what I paid, the money is the same. 35,000 where I live means you live in a car. 72,000 is barely middle class here. My numbers are accurate and since you don't live where I live your numbers are irrelevant bullshit, just like your smarmy, straw man response.

For years most of those chains have been in a race to the bottom on the quality front, all to keep costs reasonable for a family dining out.

Now that inflation has hit these restaurants especially hard over the last few years, especially with labor costs, they can no long keep a lid on prices. So they are stuck in the middle, serving crappy food at higher prices that their core demographic can no longer afford.

In a lot of the places on that list, pre-pandemic I could go into them with a family of 5 and get out for approx. $60-70 (including tip). Now, even with a family reduced by one to 4, I'm lucky to escape many of those places for under a Benjamin. To some people $100+ dollars is a lot to spend on a single meal, especially when their other costs are rising as well.

It's also not helping that a lot more people started changing habits and cooking more at home during the pandemic. Heck over the last few years, more people have been watching cooking shows than ever before and celebrity chefs are becoming rock stars, lol.

Wages haven't kept up with inflation

I know a few restaurant managers and owners. They all complain about the lack of available quality employees. A big part of it is that the restaurant industry has traditionally depended on immigrant labor, but ICE and IRS crackdowns have really picked up in the last could of years. It's a total coordination failure here as the state is paying to house people that federal government then prevents from working.

Another issue is that construction and trades have less documentation requirements and still have huge demand.

As noted my everyone else, Sinclair's restaurant list is largely a bunch of places that have fallen out of favor.

Sinclair's list of failing restaurants fell out of favor because of the Great Resignation. Why get paid less than minimum wage to wipe tables and take shit from strangers? The government gave you free money and made TGIFriday's pay you to stay at home. They lost money because they were understaffed, then service and quality dropped. Now, people cannot even afford McDonald's, so forget about Applebee's and Chili's. Rising rents, rising inflation, $15 minimum wage bills, bigger gas prices. Restaurants rely on business loans to upgrade equipment, refresh dining areas, add locations, capital project repairs etc., but they cab no longer afford the interest. These chains see more value in shuttering locations. Let's not kid ourselves, this is Bidenomics in action.

Hooters closed 41 locations so far in 2024.

wthr.com

If this report is accurate, then the restaurant industry right now is precarious but not quite in apocalypse territory:

restaurant.org