Great news! NYC strip clubs can reopen!
theDirkDiggler
Illinois
And not just strip clubs, but all businesses and schools. Okay, maybe not just now, but if a study in Gangelt, Germany turns out to be true with respect to the rest of the country and Europe in general, herd immunity might be closer than we thought at least in the hardest hit areas.
What i got out of the study:
In places where the active infection rate was around 2% of the population, another 14% were already exposed and completely recovered. So a 1:7 ratio between infected and already recovered. Also the death rate would then be as low as .37%. However, that death rate is probably higher if not significantly higher as there are still people recovering and not all of them will survive.
What does that mean with NYC? NYC already has around 6,000 CONFIRMED DEATHS and over 85,000 more CONFIRMED ACTIVE CASES. Also NYC may have just as many UNCONFIRMED DEATHS in nursing homes and residential homes and hospitals ALREADY. So 12,000 DEATHS already. Now if 12% of the remaining 85,000+ die, that's ANOTHER 10,000 DEATHS. If another 50,000 or so infections (more like serious sicknesses at this point) are CONFIRMED over the next two weeks and 16% of them DIE than that's another 8,000 CONFIRMED DEATHS. Add another 8,000 UNCONFIRMED DEATHS and you have 40,000 TOTAL TRUE DEATHS in NYC. Reverse math fill give you .5% of 8,000,000. So with a death rate of .8% or less that means around 60% or more of NYC has already been exposed and NYC already has HERD IMMUNITY, so they can COMPLETELY REOPEN IN FOUR WEEKS!
Yay, for NYC. Now what did it cost? Only 40,000 deaths in four months. Probably unacceptable for the rest of the country to follow this strategy, but it means there will be very big differences in how the country is reopened in various states, counties and cities...
Links:
https://www.the-sun.com/news/663948/peop…
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/126…
What i got out of the study:
In places where the active infection rate was around 2% of the population, another 14% were already exposed and completely recovered. So a 1:7 ratio between infected and already recovered. Also the death rate would then be as low as .37%. However, that death rate is probably higher if not significantly higher as there are still people recovering and not all of them will survive.
What does that mean with NYC? NYC already has around 6,000 CONFIRMED DEATHS and over 85,000 more CONFIRMED ACTIVE CASES. Also NYC may have just as many UNCONFIRMED DEATHS in nursing homes and residential homes and hospitals ALREADY. So 12,000 DEATHS already. Now if 12% of the remaining 85,000+ die, that's ANOTHER 10,000 DEATHS. If another 50,000 or so infections (more like serious sicknesses at this point) are CONFIRMED over the next two weeks and 16% of them DIE than that's another 8,000 CONFIRMED DEATHS. Add another 8,000 UNCONFIRMED DEATHS and you have 40,000 TOTAL TRUE DEATHS in NYC. Reverse math fill give you .5% of 8,000,000. So with a death rate of .8% or less that means around 60% or more of NYC has already been exposed and NYC already has HERD IMMUNITY, so they can COMPLETELY REOPEN IN FOUR WEEKS!
Yay, for NYC. Now what did it cost? Only 40,000 deaths in four months. Probably unacceptable for the rest of the country to follow this strategy, but it means there will be very big differences in how the country is reopened in various states, counties and cities...
Links:
https://www.the-sun.com/news/663948/peop…
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/126…
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