tuscl

Bitcoin in 2018

Monday, November 27, 2017 6:41 PM
Bitcoin rose much more in 2018 than even I expected, So now it's interesting to speculate (yes, @SJG, speculate) what 2018 will be like. I think the main theme now becomes central bank response to it. Word on The Street is that they are starting to get a little nervous. Not alot yet, but concern is rising. Mostly it's because they think it's a bubble that people will get hurt by, but some also feel that they could legitimately lose power to it. (It's not only they that should be concerned, IMO, but even more so the big banks.) So it seems likely to me that they will act in the way central bankers like to act: Understanding that the threat is often greater than the execution. I am thinking oblique hints at regulation will come out and the volatility we saw this year will continue. But the funny thing is that they really don't have much ability to regulate it unless they want to turn the country into a police state, which I don't think is likely. In the markets a credible but not at the end of the day real threat often means lots of fear but accompanied by a seemingly "inexplicable" rise when all is said in done. Can Bitcoin continue to gain at this years rate? I am skeptical. Will altcoins come more into vogue? Depends if Bitcoin can pull off the Lightning Network and if we start to see things like Ethereum derivatives. (ETH almost certain to be the next coin that people demand derivatives for.) So my advice to TUSCL in 2018 is to remember a very fundamental concept about markets: they like to climb a wall of worry. And, trust me, I think we are going to see plenty of worries in 2018. What do the rest of you of think about Bitcoin in 2018? Come out and play skeptics! After all it would be a year until you are proven wrong and can talk tough and call the people who getting it right "idiots" in the meantime.

51 comments

  • Dougster
    •
    7 years ago
    Just for fun I'll set a concrete price target: $35,000 for BTC and forks of it. $1 Trillion market cap across all crypto currencies.
  • twentyfive
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    7 years ago
    @Dougster I think $35000 is a bit high I’d be happy with $18-20K I think as BTC gets pricier you will see more interest in other crypto’s. I’m not going to try to guess market cap.
  • FTS
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    7 years ago
    *Not sure if he did it on purpose, or if he is so forward thinking that he always refers to 2017 as 2018 (first sentence of OP).
  • san_jose_guy
    •
    7 years ago
    Bitcoin, the new national slot machine. SJG
  • twentyfive
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    7 years ago
    So @mdfmk888 are you predicting a crash based on that puff piece? ROFLMAO.
  • Dougster
    •
    7 years ago
    Bitcoin is doing alot more to change and improve the world than @SJG's faggity little church ever would (even if it was real).
  • Dougster
    •
    7 years ago
    Things are moving fast (and for cryptocurrencies the direction is up). Bitcoin did not wait until December to break $10,000 or even $11,000 and the Fed did not wait until 2018 to hint they may be working on their own crypto-currency: [view link] Very significant development, and, in true central banker style, they start of with only oblique hints at something vague. Over the next year I expect them to get more and more specific the more they see a threat from crypto currencies. Over in Europe the ECB is playing cool. Saying crypto-currencies are assets but not currencies and should pose no threat to currencies. See how long it takes them to reverse on that one.
  • FTS
    •
    7 years ago
    Trump’s nominee for Fed Chair commented that, and I’m paraphrasing, cryptocurrencies may very well have a significant impact to the economy... or something along those lines...
  • Dougster
    •
    7 years ago
    Looks like a few flash crashes on GDAX today. Due to the FedSpeak?
  • Mate27
    •
    7 years ago
    Interesting. I know a moneyamger who is placing good amounts of his clients investments into the coin, say around 10%, in hopes to outperform. For his sake he better be right or else he will lose AUM if people's returns are muted or decline, and then will it be disclosed? Most people don't give a shit about how their money is invested, they just want to see a return, no matter if it is close to the benchmarks or not. I bet if someone with a large sum of money invested with a firm who is getting 9% ytd this year is pretty happy, until he/she finds out you could be getting 18% using an index fund with low costs. Bitcoin and like investments can be used, but the volatility will shake out most individuals.
  • Dougster
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    7 years ago
    Meat72: "Bitcoin and like investments can be used, but the volatility will shake out most individuals." Absolutely. Which is why I've told people if they can't stomach a 20-30% drop in a day in their favorite crypto-currency to just avoid the space entirely. Because there are going to be plenty of these going forward. Part of this is having a deep belief in crypto-currencies/blockchain not just being someone along for a casual ride. Otherwise something will come along like a Fed allusion to something (and yesterday was just the first shot), there will be a resultant selloff and those with weak conviction will get shaken out. Probably at the bottom. This is even worse than those who had conviction at all, but they didn't get involved to big with.
  • twentyfive
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    7 years ago
    ^^^If you can afford a couple of lottery tickets a week why not just let it ride for a while and see where it goes.
  • ppwh
    •
    7 years ago
    The two most important factors I see are that NASDAQ is planning to list Bitcoin futures and platform reliability: [view link] Once it's listed, there could be a temporary bump then a large drop after early adopters take profit, resulting in a situation like with happened with SNAP and LNUX after their IPOs. If it keeps experiencing outages like the one yesterday, it will be hard to maintain investor confidence: [view link] The worrying thing to me about the NASDAQ listing is that it ends up making it answerable to all the same fascists who control everything else. On the other hand, once it is listed, one could presumably invest in without worrying about a keylogger on your Macbook snagging their public key password after some dumbass at Apple made typing 'root' give anyone who walks by system level privileges.
  • san_jose_guy
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    7 years ago
    Dougster, pretending that his is not another one of these supply side voodoo people, when in fact he is, bitcoin to evidence this. SJG
  • Dougster
    •
    7 years ago
    @SJG: I'm completely unable to parse what you just said. But my guess is that it's just your usual idiotic non-sense anyway. @ppwh: One thing that Bitcoin futures would also allow is the ability to more easily short it. Right now, it's fairly hard if you live in the USA to short sell Bitcoin. That should lead to more efficient price discovery once they come online along without allowing larger merchants to hedge against fluctuations.
  • Mate27
    •
    7 years ago
    Does a Person still have to purchase the "wallet" in order to buy bitcoin? I've heard currently that you need to put up $150-$200 for the online "wallet" in order to handle this currency. If that's the case, then futures will definitely make it easier for people to dip their toes into it, making SJGs supply side more sensible, even though his posts are incoherent.
  • twentyfive
    •
    7 years ago
    ^^^No Meat just go on line to [view link] and even though they arent the cheapest way to buy crypto they will set you up with a wallet and and its probably the simplest way to get your toes in the water.
  • FTS
    •
    7 years ago
    Wallets are free, you can make them on an offline laptop; that’s how to do cold storage of Bitcoin.
  • Dougster
    •
    7 years ago
    Pretty sure that Meat72 was thinking of hardware wallets. Although not required, I would strongly recommend them. Software only solutions can always be compromised by viruses. And as Bitcoin adoption picks up we will definitely see more malware targeting Bitcoins you may have on your computer. I would highly recommend the Trezor. At some the big OS companies, Amazon, Apple, Google, Microsoft will incorporate support for hardware features on the chipset, but it's not here yet.
  • twentyfive
    •
    7 years ago
    ^^^That is the reason I suggested Coinbase plus the fact that is pretty simple it’s easy enough to go to one of the lower cost exchanges once you gain some understanding of the process.
  • Dougster
    •
    7 years ago
    I'm not all that confident in Coinbase's overall competence. Not enough to leave money with from longer than I need to anyway. Bittrex, OTOH, seem to be highly competent and I do often leave money with that. At the end of the day, however, Trezor is still the most secure. If you want to get lower fees than Coinbase, also signup for their exchange: GDAX. Doesn't take long. Won't recommend them for trading, however since they always seem to crash when market volatility gets high.
  • Dougster
    •
    7 years ago
    Once Bittrex starts accepting USD wire transfers, I'll be done with Coinbase/GDAX altogether. They just do not have their shit together.
  • san_jose_guy
    •
    7 years ago
    The so called markets, the usual kind, like stocks and bonds, have got to be so scary now that Dougster is forced to look to these completely new and completely unconnected to anything type 'markets'. This must be part of that Crisis in Capitalism which has been so long predicted. Looks like, at a minimum, we have another 1929 right on the horizon. Anyone know any new Ponzi schemes hotter than Dougster's stuff? For the people who lose money in it, even speculating on margin, THEY DESERVE WHAT THEY GET! SJG
  • twentyfive
    •
    7 years ago
    ^^^Take your broke ass and go over to some communist website you are just a whiner and a loser.
  • Dougster
    •
    7 years ago
    @SJG just upset because he knows anyone with a real talent and hoping to make a positive impact on the world is approximately 10,000,000x more like to go to work on blockchain than join his all male, all psycho church where, apparently, the way they'll make money is by using "black magic" to conjure it out of thin air.
  • ppwh
    •
    7 years ago
    In other news: [view link] "The bitcoin exchange Coinbase has been ordered to hand the IRS info on 14,355 of its highest-rolling customers" "The court order requires Coinbase to hand over info on all customers who made a transaction worth $20,000 or more between 2013 and 2015. Coinbase has estimated that this request would total 8.9 million transactions between 14,355 different account holders, according to the court order."
  • Rick999
    •
    7 years ago
    The way I see it, two IRS and possibly the Fed want to tax the cyrpto currency as an asset or capital gain or income as is required already per US law if you have gains. Part of the problem with certain wallets acting like cash and being anonymous, they have to start regulating the exchanges. The Fed might be concerned with circumventing US laws not allowing US citizens to move their money out if the country without paying mega taxes on all of it. Put your money in crypto, exchange it back out in another country going around the $10,000 limit that otherwise would get heavily taxed. I can imagine a lot more scrutiny and the IRS wanting their required cut as well. That would suck to pay thousands in taxes and then have your cyrpto currency crash and then be limited to $3000 per year maximum write off. I liked the idea better when I didn't think about paying taxes on the rise of the asset value every year. If you don't report it though and pay taxes, you are breaking the law.
  • Rick999
    •
    7 years ago
    Question to whomever knows? I saw a webinar last night for a stock IPO on a company whose stock is already trading around a dollar but they are shifting their company to mining cyrpto currency. It is a Canadian company doing this already involved in information technology but shifting their business model to mine cyrpto with a pre IPO price of 35 cents a share. Anyone know the company name? They are setting up servers in Washington state where the cost of electricity is only something like 3 cents a kilowatt hour. I stopped listening when they wanted 2 to 3 thousand for their research. From Wyatt Research I believe. They also said the normal requirement to get in on a pre IPO was income over 200,000 or one million plus in assets. Supposedly price would more than double since share price already around one dollar and you would have warrants you could exercise at 75 cents a share with all shares and warrants being able to be exercised or sold between 4 to 6 months. 6 months for the pre IPO shares, 4 months for the warrants. Anyone know what the company name and ticker is?
  • Rick999
    •
    7 years ago
    Do you guys know of stocks for companies that mine cyrptos? I probably know of two if I remember the names.
  • Dougster
    •
    7 years ago
    @Rick999: Doesn't matter if they regulate exchanges. Decentralized ones on the darknet will show up. At some at the current pace, and faster if the regulation speeds up. Only way to stop it (partially) would be police state and I don't think our government is ready to go there.
  • san_jose_guy
    •
    7 years ago
    It used to be that economic growth and rising real wages went hand in hand. Now, we are told that economic growth depends on saying goodbye to good wages and union representation. We are told that economic growth depends on giving up secure pensions, and environmental protections. And whereas the stock market would get turned into a Ponzi scheme during bubbles. Now we are told that the future is in something which never was anything more than a Ponzi scheme to start with. Dougster used to constantly tell us about the stock market and this 'boom' we are in. Now he doesn't even mention that, he just talks about this new form of gambling. SJG
  • Dougster
    •
    7 years ago
    @SJG: stock market is still doing well and it's blatantly obvious to anyone with a working set of eyes that we are in a boom. Working on a cryptocurrency is no more gambling than you working on your faggity little church. In fact, since we will actually be producing something of value, versus your plan to use black magic to conjure money out of thin there is far less risk. Your faggity little church has a 100% chance of failure. LOL!
  • san_jose_guy
    •
    7 years ago
    But even in this so called boom ( boom = bubble because boom always means another bust coming ) Dougster is interested in putting money into things much more flakey. My organization is not a chuch, nor will it be. Dougster is the only one who calls it that. Church means 'assembly', like listening to sermons in a synagogue. Definitely will not be anything like that. But we will live very well. SJG
  • Dougster
    •
    7 years ago
    Ah, so I see. Along with @SJG interests in necrophilia, rape, and murder he is also interested in tax evasion. He'll be calling his faggity little church a "church" to the IRS, but we must not call it that. It's all just one big insane fantasy in his psycho mind anyway. LOL!
  • san_jose_guy
    •
    7 years ago
    'Religious Organization', does not have to be theistic or be much like a church. SJG
  • Dougster
    •
    7 years ago
    The inside of your head is a complete vacuum isn't it? Yes a "religious" organization has to be theistic. So you're planning on lying to the IRS too as part of your revolution @san_jose_fag. That is one organization you definitely shouldn't be messing with. Although since you'll have zero money they just might not give a fuck. LOL!
  • ppwh
    •
    7 years ago
    > Yes a "religious" organization has to be theistic. That's open to debate. Leftists call themselves atheists while worshiping the state. Does groupthink worship of an demonstrably false idol really count as theism?
  • Dougster
    •
    7 years ago
    @ppwh head also full of rocks.
  • ppwh
    •
    7 years ago
    @Dougster, keep on telling yourself that. We'll see who is laughing when Bitcoin crashes and I am head pastor of the clubhouse.
  • san_jose_guy
    •
    7 years ago
    One gets the religious org status by full disclosure to the IRS. It does not have to be theistic, or have church like assemblies. The UU's are not really theistic. But even more, Buddhists, except for maybe Japanese, are not theistic and do not hold assemblies, so it would not be very accurate to call them a church. Very familiar with such local group and their practices, both Chinese, Vietnamese, and also American Zen and Tibetan Buddhism. And so that we are all on the same page, the only real tax exemption or other legal advantage which makes any difference is the real property tax exemption. I have been close to one heterodox group which had obtained this and was able to use it to get a lower rent in an office building by letting the landlord get a property tax reduction. Dougster, your bitcoin is just another step forward in the crisis of capitalism, capitalism eating itself. Should I start printing up SJG's money and offering it for sale? SJG
  • Dougster
    •
    7 years ago
    Ok, church, temple. Whatever. Same difference. Theism mysticism occult also same difference. Will just call it a church since it all means the same thing. "We don't believe in God, but we do believe in reincarnation." Whatever. Primitive ideas that don't belong in this century. And, dude, if you are mind is still back in DOS/Pascal days good look "printing up" your own money.
  • san_jose_guy
    •
    7 years ago
    Well I take exception to 'church' as generally that implies sermons. I am opposed to sermons, and especially in this era of electronic communications and environmental sensitivity to the costs of motorized transportation. No reason to drive anywhere, except for sex. If a member comes to our temple, the first thing that happens is he gets jumped by some of our stripper grade hotties. If one is not enough, 4 will hold him down while another one rides him and until he gives up his load. Do you know enough about the recent decades of computer languages to make good strategic decisions? If so, then you're a better man than I. SJG Extreme Bikini's [view link] click on picture to see all of them Jeff Beck ft/ Rosie Oddie [view link]
  • DoctorPhil
    •
    7 years ago
    san_jose_guy "If so, then you're a better man than I." news flash dumbass. everyone is a better man than you
  • FTS
    •
    7 years ago
    "If a member comes to our temple, the first thing that happens is he gets jumped by some of our stripper grade hotties. If one is not enough, 4 will hold him down while another one rides him and until he gives up his load." - That's great and all... but sometimes I like to be the one to grab her (by the pussy), throw her on the bed, and fuck her ass. I prefer submissive women.
  • san_jose_guy
    •
    7 years ago
    I also prefer submissive women too. There will be lots and lots of chances for that, like the usual mode, and then the women's first level of initiation will have them serving as sex slaves, similar to in Story of 'O'. SJG
  • Dougster
    •
    7 years ago
    Have you been a misogynist all your life, @SJG?
  • san_jose_guy
    •
    7 years ago
    Not a misogynist, but I've come to better understand women from my marriage and divorce, plus P4P experiences. SJG Sex At Dawn [view link] Truck Stop Strippers [view link] How Capitalism is Destroying Itself [view link] [view link] Gimme Shelter [view link] Neil Young and Pearl Jam - Rockin' In The Free World [view link] Stone Temple Pilot [view link]
  • Dougster
    •
    7 years ago
    @SJG don't forget your apparently terrible relationship with you mother. Did you hate her because she was trying to get you psychiatric help?
  • Dougster
    •
    7 years ago
    L1oydSchoene has his namesake down perfectly! In stitches!
  • san_jose_guy
    •
    7 years ago
    Wild Bourbon, front room makeout sessions are real, just not in all clubs, not with all girls, and not likely if you treat the girls like prostitutes or are a shit head yourself. At these Sacramento and Rancho Cordova places, do the girls lead by sitting on laps? That is a good indicator of how much potential they have. SJG Bitcoin Plunges, Extending Bearish Run | CNBC, yippee! [view link] Worst Cities To Live In Every State [view link] Albany Georgia, lowest median home price? Merced CA, near Fresno, also site of newest UC campus. Warren Haynes ­with Joe Bonamassa [view link]
  • san_jose_guy
    •
    7 years ago
    Yo Dougster, You're in the deep doo-doo now. Shailynn's mom found the old PC-AT and the telephone line and the 2400 baud modem in her attic. She knows you have something to do with it. And she says that even though you and Shailynn are in the same homeroom, that he is forbidden from talking to you anymore. She says that if she doesn't start getting some straight answers right away, then she's going to pull the plug on that computer. If she does that, then every single one of those BitBanks and their account records will be gone. SJG ELO [view link]
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