Leading Economic Indicators

53 comments

• RandomMember

  •

  7 years ago

  The LEI has predicted nine of the last five market crashes.
  
  --Paul Samuelson??
  
  I have no idea. With the rise of all these new quant hedge funds, the next market crash will be caused by some MIT quant nerd testing his/her newest algorithm.
• twentyfive

  •

  7 years ago

  Huh you need to proofread that last statement.
• RandomMember

  •

  7 years ago

  ^^^ I'm skeptical that the LEI or any other measure can predict when a market crash can occur. The point I'm trying to make is that with so many stock picks made with computers and AI, the timing of a market crash is that much more difficult for human being to predict.
• twentyfive

  •

  7 years ago

  ^^^If there were 5 crashes how can they correctly predict 9
• RandomMember

  •

  7 years ago

  Oh...that's a famous joke made by Paul Samuelson.
• twentyfive

  •

  7 years ago

  I see never heard that one before.
• shailynn

  •

  7 years ago

  I read the other day that the average American household is holding more debt than the previous recession in 2008.
  
  Makes sense, with interest rates on everything are still low and jobs a plenty, although not necessarily "good" jobs.
• san_jose_guy

  •

  7 years ago

  The best prior indicator you will have of market collapse is the formation of a market bubble.
  
  SJG
  
  8 dead in Mississippi shooting rampage. ( I spelled Mississippi correctly without computer assistance.
  https://www.yahoo.com/news/police-8-dead…
  
  Bread! Peace! Land!
  even more exciting than the French
  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cV9G1QUI…
  
  more Russia
  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w0Wmc8C0…
  
  Santa Clara's stupid stadium. Management of this is total fiasco. Better they just let my Christian Eating Lions have exclusive use.
  http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/
• Mate27

  •

  7 years ago

  LEI predicts market crashes 100% of the time out of 60%. True story.
• Dougster

  •

  7 years ago

  san_jose_fag: "The best prior indicator you will have of market collapse is the formation of a market bubble."
  
  Wow, brilliant tautology, san_jose_fag.
• RandomMember

  •

  7 years ago

  ROFL
  
• FTS

  •

  7 years ago

  Well, I now have two different economic stats to keep track of in order to time the market:
  
  1. LEI
  2. Treasury yield curve
  
  Both have a reputation of being able to predict market crashes. Anybody know of any others?
• Dougster

  •

  7 years ago

  "Parabolic" run up in stocks. Which is actually a silly phrase to me. In a parabola the growth (2nd derivative) is constant. "Exponential growth" is actually the norm where the 2nd derivative is constant. I think what people really mean is exponential growth but with a rapidly growing exponent. You'll know it when you see it.
  
• Mate27

  •

  7 years ago

  When the risk free rate goes up, and quicker than it has recently, it's time to bail.
  
  For the laymen, short term bills and notes. Anything less than 1 year duration. It's why the fed said they will do a slow and gradual tightening g so as to not spoil the markets. In theory this makes sense, but as alwYs the situation is fluid.
• Dougster

  •

  7 years ago

  This time around I will be watching oil and VIX (given it seems that it might have dropped close to an inherent lower limit. Speculating her that there is one. Puts could theoretically sell for just pennies, but that would be too risky for the seller due to out of the blue events even discounting known risks. I am speculating we are at or very close to that point right now.)
  
  I've been digging into the crypto-currencies quite a bit this weekend. After I have a bit more theoretical background I am going to download the historical data and see how it relates to other markets. Although, even if it is basically independent it is still interesting.
  
  (Finally typo above. Parabolic growth means constant second derivative. But exponential growth, which is actually the norm, means increasing second derivative. )
  
• FTS

  •

  7 years ago

  Dougster, when you see "see how it relates to other markets," do you mean compute correlation coefficients?
• Dougster

  •

  7 years ago

  Correlation coefficients are definitely part of it, but you want to look to see if one market leads or lags another.
• san_jose_guy

  •

  7 years ago

  And remember, everything Dougster is telling you is completely unknown by the professional managers of the large insurance and pension funds that largely control the market prices. You are learning things before they could ever know it.
  
  SJG
  
  Church of Satan, some real hotties!
  
  http://reverendcampbell.com/images/ritua…
  
  http://www.churchofsatan.com/images/pete…
  
  http://www.churchofsatan.com/images/gilm…
  
  http://www.churchofsatan.com/images/lave…
  
  http://www.churchofsatan.com/images/anto…
  
  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1zsIk6W…
  
  Thanks to founder for this updated version and giving us back the old post box. How about again letting us see our own and others' lists of posts?
• Dougster

  •

  7 years ago

  And remember SJG screamed that the "bubble was bursting" in Feb 2016. A year later market was up about 30% from that point. Guess he knew things the professional money managers didn't.
  
  Lol!
• san_jose_guy

  •

  7 years ago

  I've never said that I know what these markets will do tomorrow, except to say that the present valuation is not long term sustainable.
  
  SJG
• Dougster

  •

  7 years ago

  Okay, not tomorrow, just some indefinitely point in the future that keeps moving further and further out so you can never be proven wrong. Got it!
  
  And if you say you think present valuations are not long term sustainable then you are saying YOU know something professional money managers don't.
  
  Sure like to contradict yourself don't you, fuckhead?
• twentyfive

  •

  7 years ago

  ^^^You have said time and again that there is a bubble you are just blowing smoke up your own ass.
• san_jose_guy

  •

  7 years ago

  As I have said, the present valuation is sustainable. This is not privileged knowledge, everyone knows this.
  
  http://www.bing.com/images/search?view=d…
  
  And I say that grown men ought to have better things to do with their time than stock market speculation.
  
  SJG
  
  
• Dougster

  •

  7 years ago

  SJG: "everyone knows this"
  
  Well when everyone knows something in that markets that's precisely the point when it does the opposite of what everyone knows it's going to do. So that means it's not a bubble.
  
  You really should spend some time educating yourself on how the markets really work instead of wanking around about your imaginary church.
• twentyfive

  •

  7 years ago

  ^^^You have never before said that the present value is sustainable if this isn't a typo by you you are changeing what you have said.
• JimGassagain

  •

  7 years ago

  SJG can't you see that everyone hates you? Why dont you just go away and build your organization from one person to two?
• san_jose_guy

  •

  7 years ago

  Typo. The present value is unsustainable. Everyone is basically waiting to see when it crashes. People know it is unsustainable, but yet the keep putting money into it.
  
  I don't need to educate myself about these markets, because I know that is most important, stay the fuck out.
  
  SJG
• twentyfive

  •

  7 years ago

  O please you don't know squat about markets you are just pissing in the wind.
• san_jose_guy

  •

  7 years ago

  ^^^^^ I know that they are a rigged game, rigged by the big players. And I know that there is no reason for anybody to be putting their money into them.
  
  SJG
• twentyfive

  •

  7 years ago

  You sound like a ventriloquist's dummy Are you a blockhead or just stupid.
• Dougster

  •

  7 years ago

  You say it's "rigged by the big players". And then you say the "big players" are the pension and insurance funds. Who manage wealth on behalf, mainly, of the common Joe. Seems a guy like you pretend to be should be overjoyed if these big players representing the workers are the ones controlling the markets. You are a guy on the look out for the common Joe, aren't you, SJG?
  
  Just more of you tying yourself up in contradictions, san_jose_fag. I always assumed you had some kind of a background in physics, but now that I see how easily and often you and glaringly you contradict yourself I'm growing skeptical.
• san_jose_guy

  •

  7 years ago

  No, these guys don't represent the workers, they represent their own industries.
  
  SJG
• twentyfive

  •

  7 years ago

  ^^^His background is in obfuscating and plagiarizing he is not some tech guy he's just the night janitor at the 7-11.
• Dougster

  •

  7 years ago

  I am going to have to differ with you there. They have legal obligations to represent the best interest of those invested in the funds. And they take those obligations very seriously.
• san_jose_guy

  •

  7 years ago

  I'm a strip club manager.
  
  SJG
• Dougster

  •

  7 years ago

  That was directed at SJG, of course.
• twentyfive

  •

  7 years ago

  The jonny bowls need to be cleaned SJG get back to work and stop fucking around online.
• san_jose_guy

  •

  7 years ago

  Insurance companies have funds, they do manage them for anyone except the insurance company. Pension funds, well, people get their pension no matter what. I think the expected contributions of the present people changes based on how the fund does. But this in no way represents the interests of present pensioners.
  
  SJG
• san_jose_guy

  •

  7 years ago

  I know about this from having been part of companies first going public.
  
  SJG
• twentyfive

  •

  7 years ago

  A strip club manager delusions of grandeur LOL
• san_jose_guy

  •

  7 years ago

  twentyfive, the web van guy should be at your front door any minute now.
  
  https://www.valuevalet.ca/images/upc/z/7…
  
  SJG
• Dougster

  •

  7 years ago

  @san_jose_fag: Look up the term "fiduciary duty" sometime.
• san_jose_guy

  •

  7 years ago

  These fund holing companies are in business to make money. They are not owned by or controlled by the Average Joe. Fiduciary Duty is a very loose type of control.
  
  SJG
• Dougster

  •

  7 years ago

  Well they have legal recourse if the manager is not acting in their interests.
• san_jose_guy

  •

  7 years ago

  Here where I live, cities unilaterally abrogate union contracts.
  
  The little man has little recourse. Far better to have a collective and government backed pension money system.
  
  This is what we are supposed to have.
  
  But for average Joe and Jane getting into the stock market, it is rigged against them because the big players are big enough and follow each other enough that their actions have a high influence over the markets.
  
  Best is to forget about it and work with close associates and build your own companies.
  
  SJG
• Dougster

  •

  7 years ago

  I thought you were including sovereign wealth funds in your controllers of the market?
  
  Like I say the Joes and Janes who can make more money starting their own business than they can working for the man and investing in the markets will be able to figure it for themselves. And often those same people will take some of that wealth and invest it in the markets. People who do start their own business have very generous amounts they can contribute to their 401k, for instance.
• san_jose_guy

  •

  7 years ago

  Usually the best seems to be, to assemble your long term team, and start companies, and basically become your own VC.
  
  So then, why the stock market, when your own ventures have radically higher growth potential and probability than anything on the stock market.
  
  SJG
• Dougster

  •

  7 years ago

  Dude, did you read what I wrote? Those who can do better starting their own business are already able to figure it out for themselves. It's not like everyone is just waiting for you to come along and tell them that? I bet everyone weighs the pros and cons at some point.
• san_jose_guy

  •

  7 years ago

  People are drawn into the stock market because of hype and bragging. It goes back to Edison's ticker tape machine, making it a visceral reality. Like having a phone line to your bookie.
  
  There are huge barriers to starting your own business. For those in the organization I am building you will be backed by such a team that these barriers are neutralized and the risks are made very small.
  
  Other people have undoubtedly figured this out. But in our group there will be other factors that make it the ideal venue from which to attack the premises of capitalism and the consumer economy.
  
  The Rich Dad Guy discourages the stock market and 401k / Iras, as opposed to people staring their own businesses.
  
  SJG
• Dougster

  •

  7 years ago

  I agree that the risks for anyone in your organization are small b/c:
  
  a) it's imaginary
  b) even if it wasn't nobody would join b/c of what a psycho you are
  
• FTS

  •

  7 years ago

  These are all relative terms. "rigged" "overvalued" "game" . Whatever. I think it's obvious, even to SJG, that it is worthwhile for SOME people to invest in the stock market.
  
  I think, regardless of whether or not you think the US market is overvalued, the case can be made that foreign markets are undervalued. At least, that's what Gundlach said, and he seems like a pretty smart guy lol.
• san_jose_guy

  •

  7 years ago

  Ha Ha Ha Dougster. Just keep luring people into the world's biggest ponzi scheme.
  
  Investing in the stock market means putting money into things you have zero control over, and very little relevant information about. Yes some people gain, but so what.
  
  SJG
• san_jose_guy

  •

  7 years ago

  If you say that foreign markets, or this or that, are undervalued, then what you are basing that claim on is also known by the large professional fund managers. They are the ones who set the prices by their actions. You know nothing they don't know better.
  
  Very different than when you are working with people who know well.
  
  SJG