Kentucky Derby
Friday, May 3, 2024 9:21 PM
Tomorrow is derby day and realistically I know very few of you care or follow racing, but for those of you who do care and plan on betting; who do you like?
If the race goes according to quality and past performances, I cannot see any winner other than Fierceness. I am fading Sierra Leone.
Churchill Downs is a weird track in that some horses just don't like the surface. Point Given was a strong favorite, didn't like the track and didn't win. He crushed it in the Preakness, Belmont and Travers. Should have been a triple crown winner, but for the track. In addition a 20 horse field makes it very hard for closers and horses on the inside have a shitty time of it, which is why I am fading Sierra Leone, who is in the 2 gate. Even the amazing Curlin couldn't win from the 2 gate.
If Churchill is Churchill who wins? My longshot pick started at 10-1 and I just bet him and locked in 12-1: Just a Touch. A Justify Colt with the highest average Beyer in the field. He comes from just off the pace, starts from the 8 hole and is a fine across the boeard bet.
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