Inflation: You’re Never Going To Move Again*
shailynn
They never tell you what you need to know.
Inflation: you’re never going to move again*
* = unless you’re paying cash.
If you haven’t read, inflation is still stubbornly high and the prediction is the Feds may not lower interest rates at all this year.
I find it funny how many people really think that soon (within next year or two at most) think interest rates are going to drop back down to 2020 levels. I say “hate to tell you but that probably won’t happen for another 20 years or you may be lucky if it ever happens again in your lifetime,” and people think I’m nuts.
I’ve said f**k it, stay where I’m at and start remodeling like Mate27 did awhile back. The inventory is so insanely low where I live now anyway the choices are the most limited in 30 years.
* = unless you’re paying cash.
If you haven’t read, inflation is still stubbornly high and the prediction is the Feds may not lower interest rates at all this year.
I find it funny how many people really think that soon (within next year or two at most) think interest rates are going to drop back down to 2020 levels. I say “hate to tell you but that probably won’t happen for another 20 years or you may be lucky if it ever happens again in your lifetime,” and people think I’m nuts.
I’ve said f**k it, stay where I’m at and start remodeling like Mate27 did awhile back. The inventory is so insanely low where I live now anyway the choices are the most limited in 30 years.
61 comments
The interest rates are right now pretty average, the low rates of the past few years were an anomaly, when I bought my home rates were right around 7%, and even though I refinanced several times to lower my rate, people are buying homes and selling them at a pretty good clip.
I agree with what you said on interest rates, historically they aren't "that" bad right now, but they are still higher than what I initially signed up for in the 2000s. For the millennials and handful of Gen Z that are buying houses, these rates look insanely high because they know nothing different. Blame that on short term memory.
I was talking to a banker the other day and he was telling me all these incentives they have for people if they sign up for a home loan or refinance, to me that says they're hurting for business. Completely understandable since I'm sure they still want that COVID business rush they experienced 4 years ago.
There is still a good amount of availability in luxury and upper tier housing, but there is a tight housing market for the poor and working class. Letting in twelve million illegals drives up demand for lower tier rentals and houses. There is a housing crisis in Canada due to the country bringing in the equivalent of one percent of its population as immigrants every single year. Housing can't be built quick enough, resulting in skyrocketing rents and house prices for Canadians.
I'm not a professional economist, but inflation is still rising and interest rates will have to be raised higher if the government is actually serious about getting inflation under control. The government needs to stop spending like a drunk sailor and get it's act together if it doesn't want a loaf of bread to cost the equivalent of a wheelbarrow full of dollars. Force every government agency to cut its budget by twenty percent, stop funding foreign wars, and stop spending billions on "newcomers".
Inflation continues to rise. The cost of living increases to rise. Government spending increases to rise. The cost of housing and cars and eggs and everything continue to rise. The inflation reduction act has failed, but the Biden administration and Bidenonics have been successful at weakening America and weakening Americans' bank accounts, and continuing the Obama globalist agenda to cut down America to a third world country.
Until just recently, for most of this century, after taxes, your emergency money in a money market account would actually lose value accounting for inflation. Seems dubious to me that should be our goal situation.
When people talk about lack of houses, they mean houses in a neighborhood where they're more likely to have non-troublesome neighbors. But even in the typical "bad" neighborhood, most of the residents are non-troublesome. So, if we could more effectively reign in the jerks, that would probably help a lot for middle class housing issues.
The collusion of business and politicians along with celebrities benefit from their American System of Government.
Everyone knows that the wealthy didn’t earn their wealth by working hard and being honest.
It is the sufferings of the many that pay for the life of opulence and luxuries of the few.
A good just human society is one that assures that no individual is entirely without the means of housing and sustenance, and no individual has inordinate wealth.
Let’s do some quick math.
Gen Xer here - getting out of college and buying a house turn of the century - 2000s.
My tuition started at $650 a semester - when I graduated it was around $1,050. Today it’s $10,000 a semester - same school. I graduated with zero debt, most kids today are graduating minimum $40k in debt unless they have affluent parents. They’re screwed even before the enter the job market.
Yes, interest rates are relatively the same. But nobody mentions that a house cost at the minimum double what they did when Gen Xrs were entering this point of their life. Insurance has doubled. Materials have probably gone up probably 200%.
That’s awesome that fast food workers are making double what they did back then (sarcasm). Have teachers, physical therapists, accountants salaries doubled in that time period too? No, they haven’t. How are these young people going to make it now? Our government (either side) certainly isn’t helping them any. Republicans seems to only support the rich and the democrats seem to only want to help import immigrants. Change my mind!
High end new construction in south Florida is something of an anomaly. Buyers in this market aren’t affected by mortgage rates, and if they are, they know that their home will appreciate at a rate 2X whatever they’re paying in mortgage interest.
BTW all new housing starts are up by 18.5% not just luxury housing, so there’s an obviously huge demand, and its not being met.
Because facts matter:
Housing starts are forecast to rise 2.7% to 1.46 million units in 2024
1. A double-digit jump in single-family starts is expected to offset a sharp drop in multifamily construction
1. In February 2024, housing starts in the US soared 10.7% month-over-month to an annualized rate of 1.521 million, after falling by 12.3% in January, and beating forecasts of 1.425 million, amid a persistent shortage of previously owned houses
https://ipropertymanagement.com/research…
Housing costs increase faster than slight declines in interest rates, making rentals more affordable than SFH
https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligenc…
Folks, this is your tax dollars at work. This is what happens when the democrat party is more concerned with giving free money to illegal aliens, payouts to Iran, handouts to Haiti, pork money to the LBTQIA@!!~~@$^and tells the everyday tax-paying American to screw themselves.
It sucks for all the people who have their residential and commercial property portfolios that are taking a hit. And with more empty spaces in those cities, some homeless people have started squatting in those buildings. But at least most people are starting to do better now. And the cities can focus on improving their public transportation systems and make their communities more walkable.
Thank goodness we told the crybabies who screamed about return-to-office to get fucked 😊
Beyond that there's a lot of other disinformation in this thread right now. Inflation does not "continue to climb", in fact, it's been steady this year after peaking in 2022. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-stat…
And @twentyfive is right that interest rates are not historically high, and in fact they were probably too low for too long, which may have contributed to recent inflation. We've basically had near-zero interest rates since the start of the great recession, I think that's economically unhealthy, especially in conjunction with the federal deficit exploding under Trump's watch during the pandemic in 2020, and probably was the biggest contributor to inflation. https://bipartisanpolicy.org/report/defi…
We need to get the government out of the business of handing out money to banks, even if it means people will pay more for a home.
Talking about "inflation coming down" is deceptive. The damage has already been done and can't be reversed. "I put out part of the fire I set," well you're still an arsonist.
If we want to make housing more affordable, actually build some over the objections of white progressive NIMBYs, right in their backyards.
I've heard some people get lucky by finding sellers who are willing to let you take over their mortgage rather than having to get one at 7-8%.
From the US Dept of Labor
Causes of current round of inflation
“So, from this research, the authors find that three main components explain the rise in inflation since 2020: volatility of energy prices, backlogs of work orders for goods and service caused by supply chain issues due to COVID-19, and price changes in the auto-related industries.
BTW inflation has come down, that doesn’t make the prices lower it just slows the rate at which they go up.
If prices were to suddenly drop to pre-covid levels we’d have a whole new set of problems even more severe than our current situation, called deflation do some reading you’ll see how that would be.
As far as getting more housing constructed figure out where the construction companies will find workers to build in anyone’s backyard, they can’t fulfill the work that is already contracted.
As far as taking over an existing mortgage they’ll need a large amount to make up the difference in price, if they can even find a person willing to allow their assumption of the loan, and have the lender agree to the swap.
I agree with this, except for the attribution of NIMBYism to progressivism. There are plenty of right-wing NIMBYs too. In the liberal stronghold I live in, Republicans and right-wingers dominate the NIMBY scene in our local politics. NIMBYism is a scourge that taints both sides of the aisle.
Regardless, there's no fucking question that the solution to housing prices is just to build more housing. It's simple and basic economics of supply and demand.
> Talking about "inflation coming down" is deceptive. The damage has already been done and can't be reversed. "I put out part of the fire I set," well you're still an arsonist.
I mean, you're right in the sense that inflation stabilizing doesn't mean prices go back to normal. Eggs, milk, gas, and lap dances still cost more in 2024 than they did in 2020. At the same time, I don't think we want prices to return to 2020 levels, because that would require deflation which is also dangerous economically.
Regardless, it's still inaccurate to say inflation continues to climb. The fact is that it has stabilized to just above the 2% rate that the fed targets.
> Biden himself says interest rate cuts were "delayed by a month" but who believes that economically illiterate dumbass on anything? Smarter people are talking about rate INCREASES now.
I don't know what you're referring to when you say Biden delayed rate cuts, but the simple fact is: it wasn't his decision.
The fed, by design, operates independently from the White House, and it's currently run by a Trump appointee, Jerome Powell. If you want to criticize someone for failing to act sooner, you should be criticizing Powell, not Biden.
The biggest lever the president has to pull regarding inflation is spending. Debts and deficits are inflationary, full stop. Presidents who sign budgets into law that increase our debt contribute to future inflation, full stop.
> Biden's hand over fist spending, particularly on green nonsense with no demonstrable ROI, is correlated.
I think you're referring here to the "Inflation Reduction Act", one of Biden's two major legislative victories. (The other being the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill.) The Inflation Reduction Act was passed in the house as the "Build Back Better Act" and also incorporated elements of the "Green New Deal", so I think this is what you mean when you say "green nonsense with no demonstrable ROI".
I think reasonable people can disagree about the merits of the IRA, however, I don't know why any informed person would claim this bill is inflationary. The CBO score for this bill projects that it will result in a "net decrease in the deficit totaling $90 billion over the 2022-2031 period." https://www.cbo.gov/publication/58366
In contrast, Trump's signature legislative victory was the Tax Cut and Jobs Act, which added between $1-2 trillion to the federal deficit. https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/briefing…
But... maybe I'm missing something or I'm misinformed. When you refer to Biden's "hand over fist spending", what, specifically, are you talking about?
As far as inflation coming down, that's exactly my point. The damage has been done, and that toothpaste can't go back in the tube. Now, we see even our current interest rates aren't holding it back.
I haven't heard much about construction shortages.
Yes, as far as taking over an existing mortgage, that's a problem. It's rare, but it's something I wouldn't say no to.
@ronjax - the most expensive real estate in America is in blue cities, not conservative strongholds. New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Boston, Chicago. The ones here love poor people, as long as they have to commute >90 minutes to serve them and don't depress their property values. Last thing they want is affordable housing near them.
Like I said to 25 about inflation, that's exactly the problem. Deflation is worse. That means the Bidenflation genie isn't going back in the bottle. He owns this, and his team has a track record of lying about it. "Transitory," "caused by Putin," "under control," it's all a steaming pile of shit.
Actually, inflation last month was 3.5%. That's almost double the 2% fed target. President Dumbass didn't delay rate cuts, he said "oh, they'll just wait a month to cut rates." Doubly foolhardy for him to say that, since not only does he not have control but he has no economics background and an obvious vested interest. Smarter people than him are talking rate increases.
"The biggest lever the president has to pull regarding inflation is spending. Debts and deficits are inflationary, full stop. Presidents who sign budgets into law that increase our debt contribute to future inflation, full stop."
That is EXACTLY my point. Whatever Trump did, Biden doubled down on it, and at a worse time...and his planned budget for next year goes even more insane with it.
I never supported Trump's tax cuts. The national debt is a cunt hair away from an emergency. That and Biden's weaponization of the dollar is threatening to upset the dollar as the worldwide reserve currency, and we're turning over low interest rate debt into high interest rate debt. We need to eliminate the deductions and loopholes that the wealthy and connected use to dodge taxes.
Biden's "victories" are what I'm referring to. CBO scores are notoriously gamed, and inaccurate particularly as far as increased revenue collection. Inflation occurred under Biden and not Trump.
Inflation in Feb 2024: 3.2%
Inflation in Mar 2024: 3.5%
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/inflation-c…
RonJax, you say this isn't a rise in inflation? The Fed says it is. There is a reason gold keeps hitting record high lately.
I assume you made a typo when referring to Gen X because those folks are 44 to 59 and have children in Gen Y and Gen Z, and possibly grandchildren in Gen Z. Polling of Gen Y and Gen Z don't show much optimism for the future.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/18/gen-z-sa…
Agreed on this point.
> Inflation occurred under Biden and not Trump.
Right, so we also agree on this. Just like I'm sure we would agree that pandemic happened under Trump. And I'm sure you'd agree that just because the pandemic happened on Trump's watch doesn't make it his fault.
I think where we disagree is whose actions whose actions were more detrimental to inflation Trump, or Biden.
> CBO scores are notoriously gamed, and inaccurate particularly as far as increased revenue collection
OK, so if you don't like the evidence I've presented, present your own. You keep making the argument that Biden caused inflation, what evidence do you have for this claim?
And RE: Gen X, you're right that was a typo and I meant Gen Z / Millennials. And I don't know what Gen Y is, is that after Gen Z?
And thank you for the read on Gen Z and their economic prospects.
Every generation THINKS they're going to be worse off than their parents. As a Gen Xer we were famous for our youthful cynicism, but things are mostly turning out well for my generation.
I think there's no question, Gen Z has had a tougher go. Pandemic school, post-pandemic job market, and post-pandemic inflation are all challenges unlike what any previous generation faced, except maybe the Greatest Generation.
The real question is in the long run Gen Z will be vindicated for their cynicism. I think they'll turn out to be better off than their parents, regardless their current vibes and the very real short-term impediments to their prosperity. The auto-catalytic nature of invention and the steady march of human progress are pretty powerful things and they always seem to win in the long run.
If you support Trump's policies, you better be really sure about it. Because once the "the election was stolen unless I win" guy is in power, you'll have to live with them permanently. Whether they work or not.
BUT, maybe there is a bright side to all this? Maybe America's mayors can look at all that empty commercial real estate and make it easier for new strip clubs to open? (I mean, I know they won't, but we can hope)
@blah, you’re right and cheers to vacant commercial properties becoming strip clubs
but I think there's still hope...
President Biden (March 7, 2024)
@ronjax - can you show anything that says Trump caused the pandemic? Did he fund viral research, or leak virus? If not, you can't say he caused it. You can hold him responsible for his response to it, but not causing it. Meanwhile, deficit spending is a known inflationary policy. You admit it yourself, above. IRA = deficit spending = inflation. Hard to quantify but unlike Trump and the pandemic there's a straightforward causation.
We saw inflation rise in the third month of Biden's term, again, spending in an inflationary vs a deflationary time. If anything you can say Trump spent too much unknowingly, but Biden spent too much knowingly and on things unrelated to the pandemic.
The American people trust Trump over Biden by 20+ points on the economy.
just like we saw a surge at the border literally the month Biden took office.
You have to be pretty dense or willfully blind to believe any sort of administration propaganda.
‘You have to be pretty dense or willfully blind to believe any sort of administration propaganda’
Does that statement apply across the board or just to Joe Biden?
Does that statement apply across the board or just to Joe Biden?
It applies across the board to democrats, in general.
Presidents have no real control over monetary policy, haven’t since the Fed was created in the early years of the Twentieth Century ( not sure but I believe the Fed was created in 1915, or thereabouts) the only control over the economy that a president has is the budget.
Just to clarify this discussion The Federal Reserve Bank is autonomous and controls the money supply, not Biden, nor Trump, the mistakes that were made were made by Jerome Powell, independently of the president he served.
If you don’t agree with this than there’s really nothing to discuss.
Lest anyone thinks inflation #’s reported are real in time, they’re not. Considering services inflation is what’s propelling the #’s, and the fact that shelter costs make up 1/3 of the readings, inflation affects everyone differently. Has everyone suddenly become a renter??!! Also, shelter costs lag 18-24 months in reporting in real time. Translation, what we are seeing is why has happened nearly 2 years ago. The fight against inflation is basically over, but wages haven’t kept up, yet. This imbalance is working its way through the system, and rent prices have leveled off for a year and will reflect in the CPI #s going forward. Even the fed has stated so, in spite of political pundits thinking it’s not.
Bottom line, people like me and many established working class individuals have been affected, but adjust easier than the marginalized, and my standard of living hasn’t been reduced at all. In fact, I’d venture to say those in my similar situation have gained in prosperity due to owning appreciating assets(real estate, stocks, bonds), therefore being in a better standing economically. Yet tha doesn’t grab headlines in the media like the woe is me victim culture. Most people are react in knee jerk fashion, not understanding things in totality, they’d rather complain as it is the low hanging fruit to validation, ie misery loves company. I still pay cash for everything; cars, vacations, groceries, lap dances, etc. I finance nothing and it took me 20 years of working my ass off to live below my means to get to this place in life. The media doesn’t want to point out that a large majority of people in the US have also done the same and are doing fine, which is why we can pay elevated prices, but those increases have basically stalled the past 18-24 months, stripping out shelter costs. Now get off my lawn!!
However, Jerome Powell is not responsible for the mess, although it is his job to help manage it. Our government is spending too damned much money. Paul Ryan's congress forced President Trump to sign another last minute Omnibus spending bill or have a shut down while controlling Congress and the White House. Pandemic Panic led to massive money handouts. Putin Panic and President Biden's broken border has led to massive payouts to foreign governments and illegal aliens. The lunatic lefties have dragged insane green regulations into our government which continues to drive up the costs we pay daily and degrade our quality of life.
The libs of TUSCL will be triggered, but the solution is conservative policies. Policies guided by sound reason and logic grounded in the science of math and finance. Ukraine is not a vital national security interest. Taiwan is. China is a mortal enemy whom we must decouple from. The Indian Ocean and middle east are too volatile to rely on for our energy and so much outsourcing. We need to onshore so much to bring quality jobs and support our neighbors and our native countrymen. Close the borders until we have sustainable and controlled immigration system. Deny foreign governments from purchasing American land, farms, and resources. Balance investment in green energy with domestic fossil production to protect our economy and quality of life. Pass a balanced budget amendment to the US Constitution with firm penalties for Congress and POTUS failing to do their duty. That last idea is the biggest hurdle. Our elected officials view their offices as careers and entitlements and not as public service with a solemn duty to our heritage and descendants. They refuse to make the hard decisions that may impact their status as a ruling class. Term limits.
We agree on this:
> Meanwhile, deficit spending is a known inflationary policy.
But this sentence you wrote is blatant mischaracterization of what I wrote, and of the evidence I've provided:
> You admit it yourself, above. IRA = deficit spending = inflation.
The IRA, according the CBO link I provided, will result in a NET DECREASE in deficit spending of $90 BN.
I'm trying to have this discussion in good faith, and to that end, I've provided evidence to back my claims and also asked repeatedly pressed you for evidence you can provide that Biden's policies were inflationary.
And you haven't provided any evidence, just vibes, and the reductive insistence that because Biden was president when inflation peaked his policies were to blame. We might as well blame Trump for the pandemic, Bush for 9/11, and FDR for the attack on Pearl Harbor.
Every sensible economist I've read points to multiple causes of inflation, which Biden had nothing to do with: the fact that the deficit was already high at the start of the pandemic due to the Trump's massive tax cuts. Trump's tariffs were inflationary. The massive pandemic recovery spending measures that were enacted under Trump were inflationary. Supply-chain issues due to the post-pandemic restart were a huge problem. (And yes, for sure, the war in Ukraine isn't helping inflation either, given that Ukraine was once one of the top agricultural exporters in the world, and food prices are a big part of the CPI.)
The only people blaming Biden for high inflation are right wing media. If I want to consume right-wing disinformation, I don't need TUSCL for that, I could just go watch Fox News, OAN, or go on Facebook to see what my misinformed boomer relatives are posting about.
Have the last word, I think if you are not going to provide any evidence to back your claims and you're going to mischaracterize the evidence I've presented, it's not worth my time to have the conversation.
That is not even a definitive statement let alone a prediction. Just keep your eye on inflation. Other indicators of economic growth are looking positive so far this year, for example employment numbers are strong and also the S&P 500 is up around 10%. Just a couple indications that things are moving in the right direction. But the Fed officials are not going to cut rates unless they feel confident about inflation. When those numbers go down, we will see rate cuts. The first will probably happen later this year assuming the economy cools off and inflation follows suit and cools off too. So you're looking at July 31 (if we are being optimistic and inflation eases by then) or November 7 if we're being less optimistic but still not pessimistic. I'll be disappointed if rates still aren't cut after their November meeting.
As far as "many people" saying that soon interest rates will go down to 2020 levels (record lows, under 3%), who do you know that is saying that? I don't know a single person IRL, from Economist to Realtor or anyone in between, who predicts rates to drop back to 3% within the next couple years. Seriously, I don't know a single person who knows/follows the market and actually thinks that. Even the most optimistic lenders I know are not predicting anything under 5. I personally am predicting rates to be around 5.5% by Q1 2026! Anything lower than that would pleasantly surprise me.
Trump sought to set aside the election results, not find actual counting errors and correct them. He was only stopped because he couldn't find enough people who would go along with it to fill the necessary positions in the military and the Department of Justice. His supporters are finding such people to serve in his next administration.
The majority of illegal immigrants are unskilled or semi-skilled. If we kick them out, employers will have to pay much more to replace them. If they can't be replaced, that will lead to lower production. How do you think that will affect inflation? If we accept paying more for low-skill labor, why don't we raise the minimum wage, to attract legal residents to take those jobs? With Mexicans at least, there's a lot of evidence that they deport themselves when they can't do better here moneywise than in Mexico.
Deficit spending spurring inflation is basic macroeconomics. It's not a 1:1 correlation but it's there. Deficit spending during a supply disruption, double so. The definition of inflation is too much money chasing too few goods. The absolute wrong thing to do was to spend into it. The fact that it was throwing more money after the Dems' green wish list says it was a pretext to spend. The methane taxes will spike energy prices too, which affect anything transported. I know the stat bureaus love to play games about eliminating food and gas on inflation measures, but as long as you eat or drive or heat your house, it will affect you.
Not only that, but the green energy subsidies go to the upper classes, which coincidentally are the only groups who give a shit about climate change. It's so far down the priority lists of the average Americans it'll gobsmack you.
"The only people blaming Biden for high inflation are right wing media."
False. David Lynch of the Washington Post (right wing media my left nut) says 3-4% of inflation (in 2022) was directly attributable to Biden's American Rescue Plan.
You're also using weasel words like "every reliable economist." Certainly you can give some names.
It's liberal darling Keynes who says you deficit spend during deflationary periods (like the heart of the pandemic) and pull back during inflationary periods (like after it's under control).
I'd suggest you get your facts straight before you come in so hot at me.
"Yes, my point was, people who are truly falling through the cracks are the crisis."
That's your opinion. Homelessness doesn't affect as many as inflation, and homelessness is more attributable to untreated mental illness than poverty. Reopening mental hospitals would do a lot more for that than more Biden green legislation.
Inflation hurts everyone, but moreso the working class and people on fixed income. It's not about people "not spending their money wisely," it's food and gas prices going through the roof. The working class doesn't give a shit about the stock market--they don't own stock and can't afford to contribute to their 401k.
"Trump sought to set aside the election results, not find actual counting errors and correct them."
Yes, and I didn't like that. But fact was, the 1/6 rioters were idiots dressed up in costumes, not tactical teams. It's hard to say he intended that to overthrow the government. All this sounds like extreme Trump Derangement Syndrome from people struggling to whitewash Biden's record. But more than anything, the reason the "Trump = dictator" brainbug fails is because Trump willingly left office on January 20, 2021.
Typically, presidents accomplish much less in their second term than their first--I don't anticipate Biden or Trump will accomplish much--but Trump isn't shredding America into special interest groups, black vs white, male vs female, LGBTQ vs straight, and telling them they're oppressed by the other and entitled to recompense. Race relations plummeted when BLM took the scene and prominent leftist politicians embraced them. They made a pretty penny off of them. Similarly, once gay marriage stopped being controversial (Obergefell or not, most conservatives truly don't give a shit anymore), Democrats discovered trans rights as their next great civil rights cause. Biden called it the cause of the generation, when anyone with open eyes sees it's a social contagion that occurs in clusters, and most often in severely mentally ill children and teens uncomfortable with their bodies. Even liberal UK and Finland are admitting transing kids is child abuse.
We can take narcissists. Shit, the higher you go on the political mountain, the more narcissistic it gets, even Trump is an extreme example. We can't take everyone in America at each other's throats. I could go on about Dems' love of censorship, America-haters lining up behind the left, and weakness abroad, but that's outside the scope of this discussion.
If Trump loses, it'll be because of abortion (and I'm pro-choice so don't go there), not because anyone was afraid of a Trump dictatorship.
"The majority of illegal immigrants are unskilled or semi-skilled."
And there we have two traditionally liberal constituencies placed against each other. Bernie Sanders called open borders a Koch Brothers scheme to depress wages, before the left suddenly decided any restrictions were racist. Labor markets are supply and demand too. Excess of labor supply depresses wages. If we sealed the border, American businesses would be forced to pay more to employ Americans. Goods would get more expensive but that's a tradeoff.
As far as immigration, I'm more concerned about the bad seeds we're letting in. Gangsters from El Salvador. Thugs from Venezuela, explicitly released by the Maduro regime and sent towards America, admitted terrorists from the Middle East. Thanks to Biden's complete refusal to control the border, we're inviting 9/11s and 10/7s left and right.
Give me an egomaniacal asshole over any of that.
You didn’t like that, but you accuse anyone who refuses to vote for him of “Trump Derangement Syndrome “
You guys got brass fucking balls, anyone who votes for him is fucking deranged
No, I accuse anyone who believes every conspiracy theory about Trump, no matter how wild, of having Trump Derangement Syndrome.
I remember all the hate Reagan got during the early 80s economic crisis. To the point of people saying they wished Hinkley had better aim. But that situation was set in motion when Carter appointed Volker as Fed Chair. Both Carter and Reagan could see no alternative, than to swallow some bitter medicine to end the stagflation of the 70s. In general, the current state of the economy is not simply a result of current policies. It's years, even decades, in the making.
Trump isn't qualitatively worse than politicians in general, but much worse quantitatively. He doesn't just stop with voter suppression and gerrymandering. He wants to "find" votes, and unnecessarily force presidential elections into the House. I don't see how it makes sense to accept the risk that implies, based on some crazy hope he can manage the economy in a way NO President ever has. The best we've done in my lifetime was when Dole wrestled Clinton with his one arm, and we actually briefly had a small budget surplus, with decent inflation and employment numbers.
The key points with illegal immigration are:
1. It's not a major cause of crime statistically.
2. Only a very small percentage of illegal immigrants commit welfare fraud.
3. They're doing what most people would do in their situation (if they had as much balls).
4. Trying to make it nearly impossible to sneak across the border fails any serious cost-benefit analysis.
5. Expedited mass deportation of illegal immigrants could cause the worst economic crisis we've seen since the 30s. We need to explore the issue with pilot programs. Like, pick a few farmers, and subsidize the wages they pay so that they're high enough to attract legal residents to do the harvesting. Based on the results gotten, we'll can decide how much deporting we should do, and how many illegal immigrants need to be converted into legal guest workers.
6. Do you want me to lose the will to live? That's what will happen if my Cuban favs who are waiting for their asylum hearing get deported.
Hint at the mendacity of some: Pretending a budget surplus does or means anything. It just means you didn't overspend by the amount you intended, not that the deficit was reduced.
It's hard to see Trump as a mastermind behind a concerted effort to overthrow the country when the effort that actually occurred was comical. Did you see those clowns? Taking selfies, stealing podiums? He would have to be a thousand times as incompetent as rallying those "insurrectionists" as backing up the Keystone Kops Capitol Police.
None of that says he ever intended to endanger American democracy, particularly not with the prodigious resources Trump had at his command (both public and from his own cash). Where I do see the pattern is in the numerous "get Trump" lawsuits out there, including DAs actively campaigning on getting Trump, crime to be named later. THAT is a bigger threat to democracy than one asshole, even as big of one as Trump.
I thought I said this elsewhere on the thread, but I'll repeat myself...I never said we wanted to roll prices back to 2020. I agree that creates greater problems.
But how far back can we assign blame? How delayed is the impact? The years and years of zero interest rates might have some blame, but why wouldn't they take effect for 5 years? (Recall rates were getting ratcheted up under Trump--which makes that growth even more impressive!) I thought we kept interest rates low for too long, and did not like Trump's tax cuts (which are also inflationary) but neither Obama nor Trump were so beset by inflation. Why would that powder keg suddenly go off in 2021? Moreover, why did the timing coincide so well with the American Rescue Plan, giving more money to chase fewer goods due to the supply chain crisis? The Biden administration clowns itself whenever it tries to rationalize it...first it's transitory, then it's no big deal, then it's Putin's fault, then it's actually a good thing...I've lost count of their shitass excuses. It's everything except them, when they've enacted inflationary policies left and right.
I'm not buying the "voter suppression" line. It's 99% anecdotes, and in fact the states where it's being claimed (like Georgia), we're actually seeing MORE turnout than in the past. Gerrymandering is a state thing, not a Trump thing, and happens in each state where one party holds primacy. It's gone back centuries.
It was Bill Gates more than Bill Clinton that generated the late-90s boom. Clinton balanced the budget with Gingrich and got a lot done, but more than anything was in the right place at the right time.
Trump "finding votes," well, didn't Al Gore try to do that? Or Jesse Jackson claiming the Ohio 2004 vote was fraudulent? Other than making a lot more stink, I don't see what he has done as so far out of the mean. Not to mention we had one Trump term that didn't end in a cataclysm. I'm yet to meet a single swing voter that believes Trump will install himself as dictator for life. Only partisan Dems.
The key points with illegal immigration are:
1. It's not a major cause of crime statistically.
> Didn't say it was, it's down the list for my concerns about illegal immigration, but like the left loves to say about guns, "if it saves one life..." What about those raped, robbed, or killed by coyotes? They're victims too.
2. Only a very small percentage of illegal immigrants commit welfare fraud.
> I didn't say that. But it's more than "welfare fraud," it's the strain on school systems, healthcare systems, and more. A lot of these areas are already strained
3. They're doing what most people would do in their situation (if they had as much balls).
> That's a "them" problem. America doesn't have the resources, nor the duty, to take on the world's poor. Being coached to make a false asylum claim does not make them asylees.
4. Trying to make it nearly impossible to sneak across the border fails any serious cost-benefit analysis.
> Straw man. We had a tight border under Trump without a wall. Then Biden takes office and literally the month he takes office, undoing Trump policies, the number of migrants explodes. They say "the border is closed" when they could go back to Trump policies and stem the flow tomorrow. They talk about "root causes" as if we're going to fix Haiti, El Salvador, Honduras, and Venezuela. No Democrat explanation of the current border situation passes the laugh test.
5. Expedited mass deportation of illegal immigrants could cause the worst economic crisis we've seen since the 30s.
> Again, something I never said; rounding up illegal immigrants is impossible. But not as hard as the Dem wet dream of going door to door confiscating American guns. ;-)
Based on the results gotten, we'll can decide how much deporting we should do, and how many illegal immigrants need to be converted into legal guest workers.
> I wouldn't be against a measured, well-run, guest worker program.
6. Do you want me to lose the will to live? That's what will happen if my Cuban favs who are waiting for their asylum hearing get deported.
> Yeah, you'll need to find an entitled AWFL (affluent white female liberal) to take her place. Sorry, some of us just want to watch the world burn...
> "The only people blaming Biden for high inflation are right wing media."
False. David Lynch of the Washington Post (right wing media my left nut) says 3-4% of inflation (in 2022) was directly attributable to Biden's American Rescue Plan.
I actually agree with you that the ARP is one of many causes of inflation. It added $1.9T to the federal debt and that's inflationary. I think I acknowledged in prior posts that pandemic recovery measures under both Trump and Biden played a major role in igniting inflation. FWIW, I've also read the David Lynch Article you're referring to, and largely agree with it's conclusion:
Biden’s rescue plan made inflation worse but the economy better | https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy…
Lynch also acknowledges the major role several of Trump's rescue plans, including the $2.1T dollar CARES Act. What's odd to me is that you see only the American Rescue Plan, when the reality is there were several large COVID aid packages, most of them under Trump (whom you do not seem hold to account in the slightest.)
According to the US government, there were six major COVID relief packages signed into law \ https://www.pandemicoversight.gov/about-…:
1. The Coronavirus Preparedness and Response Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2020 (Total $7.8B)
2. The Families First Coronavirus Response Act (Total $15.4B)
3. The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, (CARES Act) (Total $2.1T)
4. Paycheck Protection Program and Health Care Enhancement Act (Total $483B)
5. The Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2021 Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2021 (Total $900B)
6. The American Rescue Plan of 2021 (Total $1.9T)
Trump signed 1-5. Biden signed number 6. Roughly $3.6 trillion for Trump and $1.9 for Biden. Why are you honing in on Biden's pandemic spending as the sole cause of inflation?
And we haven't even gotten into the worthiness of any of these aid packages. My personal opinion is that there was probably *some amount* of COVID aid and stimulus deficit spending was necessary, even if it meant paying the inflation price later. I think we overshot the mark, but fortunately not as bad as many of our international friends (where inflation has been worse).
I think some of the spending was particularly odious, especially the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), whose loan forgiveness provisions made it effectively a cash transfer to business owners/shareholders. You could argue this was necessary maybe for restaurateurs retail business owners, but the PPP applied to every industry, even in places like tech, finance and health care where shareholders made a ton of money in 2020 without sprinkling PPP funds on top.
You talked earlier about the wealthy paying their fare share, the PPP was basically just giving the wealthy money. But this was legislation signed by Trump, not Biden.
So to tie this into the original point of who is to blame for inflation, when we account for pandemic deficit spending, we need to account for the fact that the vast majority of it happened under Trump. And not only did most pandemic spending happen under Trump, it happened just after he'd passed one of the largest tax cuts in history for the wealthy, adding trillions to the federal debt.
Biden’s rescue plan made inflation worse but the economy better | https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-p…
> I would argue that there is no way to "make inflation worse but the economy better." If he's talking about GDP, that's not a stat that matters to the average American. It and unemployment do not filter down, particularly to the lower classes, the same way as inflation and wages do. That's what they care about. The rest is the administration whinging that those goddamn poors don't appreciate their betters.
What's odd to me is that you see only the American Rescue Plan, when the reality is there were several large COVID aid packages, most of them under Trump (whom you do not seem hold to account in the slightest.)
> Number one, the timing. It's a straight-up hockey stick. Number two, regardless of who actually "caused" inflation, there is better justification for Trump's spending than Biden's. The heart of COVID was extremely deflationary. If we didn't spend then, the shit might have really hit the fan. Once we had Trump's spending in place, why did Biden add to it? Particularly for something as unrelated to economic recovery as green tax credits, which largely accrue to the upper class that can actually afford that new Tesla? So yes, that's why I hammer Biden a lot harder than Trump on inflation, even if Trump spent more and contributed to inflation himself.
My personal opinion is that there was probably *some amount* of COVID aid and stimulus deficit spending was necessary, even if it meant paying the inflation price later. I think we overshot the mark, but fortunately not as bad as many of our international friends (where inflation has been worse).
> It's true that we aren't as bad as a lot of other countries, but just because someone fucked up worse, doesn't mean you didn't.
I think some of the spending was particularly odious, especially the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), whose loan forgiveness provisions made it effectively a cash transfer to business owners/shareholders.
> Agree. The money train disproportionately accrues towards the rich and well-connected. That seems to be a theme of most government spending, the poor take it up the tailpipe.
You talked earlier about the wealthy paying their fare share, the PPP was basically just giving the wealthy money. But this was legislation signed by Trump, not Biden.
> I don't agree with everything Trump did. He fucked up a lot of things related to COVID. I said earlier I didn't like his tax cuts. I'm duly afraid of the national debt in a rising interest rate environment, and after the last inflation readings, I'm only more paranoid.
> And I should mention I hate the term "fair share." Fuck, Ron, I hate the word "fair" in general, which is one of the great loser words of the English language. Fair according to whom? Bernie Sanders, and his fans who keep inventing a right to other people's money and labor? The extreme libertarians who think the only fair tax amount is zero? My definition of "fair" is enough to balance the budget for a government that fulfills its necessary functions, and not more than that.
Presidents don't cause inflation. Trump spent a lot, and Biden spends even more. There is no fiscal conservatism anymore. Nobody seems to care.
For those thinking you have inflation figured out, please look at the correlation between money supply and a measure of inflation like CPI or PCE. For a decade plus (post GFC to 2019, let's call it), the world tried to stoke inflation. ZIRP for a decade, couldn't get inflation up after the GFC. Money printer go brrrr did NOT equal more inflation until governments fucked the world by shutting down amid a massive overreaction. Then a massive injection of liquidity in March 2020 combined with supply chain issues lit it all on fire.
I'm not suggesting that higher spending and loose monetary policy doesn't contribute to inflation, but they did that for a decade and inflation went nowhere. So, please don't pretend to understand the multitude of variables which contribute to an interconnected global economy. This is not a univariate system we're working with here. It's complicated. And no one truly understands it.
For all time, the public will be easily fooled by simplistic thinking like "the economy was good when this guy was president, so, he must be the reason." Please, don't be so naive. Other things are more simple, like "my guy won't hire people who will prosecute crime or illegal immigration, so they're higher". But the economy requires more nuance than that.
Trump's "Remain In Mexico" policy was questionably legal. I don't think Biden fired border patrol agents, or tore down any walls or fences on the border. And Trump recently blocked a bill to increase resources for border security.
If you're going to deny that Trump blatantly pressured Pence to illegally block the certification of the election results, I leave it to you to decide who would be the best President in your dream world.
No, I've given many examples of policies I've disagreed with, but I agree with more than I disagree with.
In an ordinary election cycle like 2016 or 2020 I wouldn't (and didn't) vote for him, because he's a narcissistic asshole.
This year, the Dems have become so odious that I'll happily vote for Trump, even in a state where it doesn't matter.
"Trump's "Remain In Mexico" policy was questionably legal."
How so? Border security is not negotiable. Numerous agents have come out and said how low the morale is, how Dems have accused them of whipping migrants and tied their hands. Oh and please don't pretend that "bill to increase resources for border security" was anything other than a campaign stunt to try (and fail) to take the issue away from Republicans. It would have given legal blessing to current levels of immigration. It says something that Americans STILL prefer Trump on the border by a commanding margin.
"I leave it to you to decide who would be the best President in your dream world."
I guess my "dream world" is one where the American people aren't getting divided and played against each other, inflation stays at 2% or below, we aren't getting constantly tested abroad, mentally ill children aren't getting chemically and surgically fucked up, we aren't letting in massive numbers of unvetted illegals, and the Democratic party isn't embracing street crime and prosecuting lawful self-defense. Based on Biden's approval rating, America wants that "dream world" too. If anyone other than Trump were running, they'd wipe the floor with Biden.
https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful…
When, from watching Fox News (and apparently little else) you think you know better than a kid's parents and doctor, that's a very sad and sick dream world. Some of the kids will have regrets as adults. Bound to happen, whether the treatment is allowed or blocked.
Does Trump have the Proud Boys on standby to unify us all?
People blindly had faith that Biden could quickly end the pandemic. Now they have blind faith Trump can lower prices and interest rates. Maybe the second time's the charm.
> Yes, when I don't want to paste a giant block of text and that half sentence conveys the meaning. Anyone can look at the post I'm responding to and see the full sentence.
"When, from watching Fox News (and apparently little else) you think you know better than a kid's parents and doctor, that's a very sad and sick dream world."
> HAHAHAHAHA that's a fucking howler, man. For one, I don't watch Fox News, or any TV news period. For another, if you followed the issue, you'd see it was a social contagion that happens in clusters, and that retrograde conservative UK and Finland are realizing fostering kids' gender confusion and chemically sterilizing them was a horrible idea. That these kids are as mentally fucked up (depression, bipolar, schizophrenia, autism, ADHD) after getting mutilated than before.
> If someone wanted to cut off their legs because they felt like an amputee (look up apotemnophila) or their eyes because they wanted to be blind (yes it happens), we'd properly look at them like they had a dick growing out of their forehead. Yet if we don't want to cut off penises, testicles, and breasts, we're bigots.
> It's "affirming" to give an anorexic a gastric bypass; it also doesn't make it ethical.
"Some of the kids will have regrets as adults. Bound to happen, whether the treatment is allowed or blocked."
> "First, do no harm" ring a bell?
"Does Trump have the Proud Boys on standby to unify us all?"
> Who is digging their fingers into racial wounds, and telling black people they have a right to reparations from anyone else, due to what happened 160 years ago? (Coates, Kendi, and the left) Who is telling people that black people who don't toe their party line aren't truly black? (Joe Biden, Ayanna Presley, among others) Who called trans rights the civil rights issue of our day, despite the Dems not acknowledging their existence until a few years ago? (Biden) Who believes America is a fundamentally evil place that needs to be transformed? (The left). Who believes we are racist if we don't allow illegal immigrants, including gangsters, criminals, and terrorists? (The left). There is no honestly equating a few bad actors to that.
"Now they have blind faith Trump can lower prices and interest rates. Maybe the second time's the charm."
> No one with any economic knowledge thinks Trump will lower prices or interest rates. We just want it to stop getting worse. Trump wasn't particularly effective in enacting his agenda, and is likely to be less so in his second term, as second term presidents tend to be. I would have preferred someone like DeSantis who doesn't have charisma but gets things done.