100% out of the stock market

17 comments

• JuiceBox69

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  4 years ago

  And yes when i re enter im doing the index fund idea
• mark94

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  4 years ago

  Public info on Buffets holdings are weeks behind his actual moves. By the time we learn them, he has likely already made major changes.
  
  When a market changes direction, it can happen very fast. That’s why people who try to time the market can miss 10% to 20% appreciation before they realize the change has taken place. Do that enough times and it really adds up.
  
  As a result, most people underperform the market. People who just sit in the market, riding it up and down, by definition match the market, which is better performance than 95% of active investors.
• captainfun

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  4 years ago

  Spot on guidance from Mark94 to all the investors out there. Don't try to time the market. Our gut feel or even veteran market insights about what should happen (with regard to increasing or decreasing values) is rarely correct. Buy and hold a wide array (stock, bonds, domestic, international) of low expense ratio index funds.
• mark94

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  4 years ago

  When you buy stock, that means there is someone out there who has decided it’s the right time to sell. One of you is wrong.
• twentyfive

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  4 years ago

  ^ unless the other guy needs cash for a myriad of reasons I never look at the other guys motives I focus on my own needs.
• captainfun

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  4 years ago

  A few more comments for context for people that are trying to develop their approach to investing. By investing in these broad index funds you're essentially buying small bits of a very large portion of the entire market. So, you don't have to worry about a specific company stock or an industry (hotel, banks, airlines), etc tanking.
  
  What the future holds for any specific company can be very uncertain. I have worked for numerous large publicly traded companies. They have generally been stable but market forces can make weird shit happen.
  
  My approach has returned 8% on average per year over the last 10 years. Will you hear me bragging about xyz stock doubling? Nope, but you also won't hear me lamenting about abc company being down by 30%, 40%, etc.
  
  A bit contradictory perhaps but I will say that the market volatility in March, 2020 was horrific and my portfolio (and most everyone's unless in cash) was down by as much as 30% from its all time high but luckily most of that drop has bounced back.
  
• Mate27

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  4 years ago

  Juice, I don’t think you’re doing the things you say you are doing.
• MackTruck

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  4 years ago

  Juice! Juice! Juice!
• bdirect

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  4 years ago

  there is 18 million millionaires now in the usa........... you can do it...... be in the million dollar 401k club
• twentyfive

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  4 years ago

  That make each one a
  "One in 18 Million You"
• Techman

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  4 years ago

  I entered in April, 'at the worst time', have almost doubled my money in RCI Hospitality ( strip clubs) and MGM (gambling).
• Warrior15

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  4 years ago

  I"m somewhat of a market timer. But I spent 20 years working for Wall Street firms. I have a little bit of knowledge about it. But even I never go all the way to cash. NO ONE is totally accurate and the market sometimes makes even the smartest people look stupid. I think there is going to be a pull back again, maybe in the Fall. But I'm only 30% cash. Right now, there are not many options to put money into. Bank accounts earn zero and no way in the world would I buy a long term bond right now. And I'm not sure I would buy any real estate right now. So the stock market may very well go up because of lack of options.
  
  Now if this thing turns into a full fledged depression, then people will start to use that cash. But let's hope that doesn't happen.
• mark94

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  4 years ago

  Let’s say a 10% correction takes place. It might take a week. Someone who times the market goes to cash, but it takes them a few days.
  
  Then, a few weeks, or months, later, it bounces back. Again, it takes the market timer just a few days to realize what is happening and get back in.
  
  Now, the market timer has about 90% of what they originally had. Not a big deal.
  
  Problem is, corrections like this take place every year. The few days it takes to react cost 10%. Every. Single. Year. For 40 fucking years.
  
  That means, when you retire, you have one tenth of what you would have have had if you’d simply stayed in the market.
• captainfun

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  4 years ago

  Scrub - you named companies that may be doing well in the moment but left off many other "top" companies that have done terribly. All it takes is one data breach, one scandal, an emerging competitor that eats the leader's lunch etc.
  
  Some people are foolish enough to think they know the mgmt style, culture, or the future outlook of their favorite stocks yet they don't because they can't; it's not possible. CEOs, other execs, and board members of big companies have shitloads of unforeseen blind spots. To each his own but for my taste I'll stick with a vanilla, low cost, less risky approach.
• bdirect

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  4 years ago

  18.6 million millionaires in usa ,,,, i forgot the .6
  Credit Suisse's "Global Wealth in 2019" measured the number of adult millionaires in the world. According to the report, the US has 18.6 million millionaires, highest in the world.
• woodstock

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  4 years ago

  Hey Juice, check out how the market jumps; hope you're not out when it does -- https://www.thesimpledollar.com/investin…
• JAprufrock

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  4 years ago

  Timing the market is a chump's game. In my organization, members buy and hold long-term and ride out the highs and lows. It's money they won't need for many years (at least 5 to 7, preferably longer). For the money they need sooner (for retirement, a house, college costs, copious amounts of sex with professionals), I tell them not to invest in the market.