Just read this in Townhall.

'I HAVE NO EXPLANATION BUT THE NUMBERS SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES'

Top Israeli prof claims simple stats show virus plays itself out after 70 days
Isaac Ben-Israel, who is not a medical expert, says analysis worldwide shows new cases peaking after about 40 days, slams economic closures;
leading doctor dismisses his claims

From: The Times of Israel https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-israel…

A prominent Israeli mathematician, analyst and former general claims simple statistical analysis demonstrates that the spread of COVID-19 peaks after about 40 days and declines to almost zero after 70 days — no matter where it strikes, and no matter what measures governments impose to try to thwart it.

Prof Isaac Ben-Israel, head of the Security Studies program in Tel Aviv University and the chairman of the National Council for Research and Development, told Israel’s Channel 12 (Hebrew) Monday night that research he conducted with a fellow professor, analyzing the growth and decline of new cases in countries around the world, showed repeatedly that “there’s a set pattern” and “the numbers speak for themselves.”

While he said he supports social distancing, the widespread shuttering of economies worldwide constitutes a demonstrable error in light of those statistics. In Israel’s case, he noted, about 140 people normally die every day. To have shuttered much of the economy because of a virus that is killing one or two a day is a radical error that is unnecessarily costing Israel 20% of its GDP, he charged.

Prof. Gabi Barbash, Director General at Tel Aviv Sourasky Medical Center, and the former Health Ministry director general, insisted in a bitter TV exchange that Ben-Israel is mistaken, and that the death tolls would have been far higher if Israel and other countries had not taken the steps they did.

But Ben-Israel said the figures — notably from countries, such as Singapore, Taiwan, and Sweden, which did not take such radical measures to shutter their economies — proved his point. (He also posted a Hebrew paper to this effect on Facebook, with graphs showing the trajectories.)

When Barbash cited New York as ostensible proof that Ben-Israel was mistaken, Ben-Israel noted the latest indications from New York were precisely in line with his statistics that indicate daily new cases figures peaking and starting to fall after about 40 days.

Asked to explain the phenomenon, Ben-Israel, who also heads Israel’s Space Agency, later said: “I have no explanation. There are all kinds of speculations. Maybe it’s related to climate, or the virus has a life-span of its own.”

He said the policy of lockdowns and closures was a case of “mass hysteria.” Simple social distancing would be sufficient, he said.

If the lockdowns instituted in Israel and elsewhere were not causing such immense economic havoc, there wouldn’t be a problem with them, he said. “But you shouldn’t be closing down the entire country when most of the population is not at high risk.”

Asked to explain why the virus had caused such a high death toll in countries such as Italy, he said the Italian health service was already overwhelmed. “It collapsed in 2017 because of the flu,” he said.

Barbash, speaking after Ben-Israel had left the studio, insisted that “we’re going to be living with the coronavirus for the next year.” He added: “I strongly urge that we not let mathematicians — who know nothing about biology — determine when we lift the lockdown.”
***
BIO: Isaac Ben-Israel (born 26 July 1949) is an Israeli military scientist, general and ex-politician. He currently serves as the chairman of the Israeli Space Agency and the National Council for Research and Development, under the auspices of the Ministry of Science, Technology and Space of Israel. He finished his service in the IDF ranked General, serving as head of the military Administration for the Development of Weapons and the Technological Industry. Between 2010-2012 he served as chief Cybernetics adviser to PM Netanyahu, during which period he founded the National Cyber Bureau in the PM office and launched the National Cyber Initiative. Ben Israel is now head of the Security Studies program in Tel Aviv University, where he also heads the annual international Cyber Security conference. Between 2007 and 2009 he served as a member of the Knesset for Kadima. Ben Israel is one of Israel's top experts on Space, Cyber and technological related security. He holds a PhD in Philosophy and a BSc in Physics and Mathematics from Tel Aviv University.

NOTE: Yitzhak is a boys' name of Hebrew origin, and the meaning of Yitzhak is "laughter". **Variant of Isaac**. Variations: Itzak, Izaak, Yitzchak

RELATION VIA ISAAC: Itzhak

There seems to be a lot to this virus and thus it seems a lot will be learned after-the-fact when it, and the steps taken to combat it, is studied in years to come - what merit this particular study has I don't think it's the end all be all, there may be something to it, or nothing to it - in the end this is the first and only world-wide pandemic of its kind most that are alive have dealt with and almost all the advanced nations and its experts decided a lockdown was the way to go - whether in hindsight that was the right decision or not, it was the decision reached based on the knowledge at the time in lieu of any better alternative based on what was known - if most of the world overshot and a lockdown was not warranted/needed, IMO better to overshoot than undershoot, but time will tell.

I think it’s time to re-open and let nature and Darwin have its way...

That's interesting. But does having the same pattern of peaking and subsiding mean the same thing as having the same number of cases (or number of cases relative to the population) or having the same mortality rate? The pattern might be the same with the outcomes being very different.

As for me, I'm going to continue to hunker down. I can read, exercise, cook, study, watch Netflix, and play on the internet. I've had a couple virtual dinners with friends where we cook and deliver food to each others' doors and then eat the meal while conversing on FaceTime. I've participated in two Zoom meetings with 25 or 30 people I know. I'm not really suffering.

Correlation is not causation... looking at this from a purely mathematical standpoint doesn't tell us anything. If his "math" could be applied to other outbreaks with the same answers, then that *might* be something. I didn't see any mention of his research being subjected to peer review, so it's hard to judge if this is a real thing or just another attention whore.

I can state one thing I know for sure! Next year this time we will know the exact stats (not counting human error) from now!

⬆ Seems like a fair bet.
Similar mix of factual reporting, questionable reasoning and wild speculation after Kennedy assassination and 9/11.