Watching irma closely. Historically only about 5 have hit S. Florida from it's present location. That means nothing at all. andrew was't going to hit us.
I am also watching Irma closely. The 5 day NOAA forecast has Irma centered just north of central Cuba and still heading west. But NOAA hurricane tracking has an historic error rate of about 225 miles on their 5 day forecast (average spread between 5 day projection and actual position). That means Irma could - in 5 days - be over Jamaica or the central Bahamas. Like Get Smart's Cone of Silence, the NOAA cone ofuncertanty
Damn tiny laptop!!! It just posted all by itself! To continue - whether anyone wants to read or not - the NOAA cone of uncertainty doesn't work as well as their computer models insist it should!
My, totally amateur, ill informed forecast, has a weakened Irma (cat 1 or 2) bouncing off Cuba and next Sunday burying itself in the South FL swamps for a couple of days.
Sorry Clubber, but my guess is that you are going to get your feet wet again! But hey, If (by some miracle) I am right - Miami will get the worst of the water and wind damage and we all know that Miami does need to be pressure washed now and again! (Cruel sick joke, I know - my apologies to folks down there who do get hammered)
Well if it does indeed go over central Cuba those mountains usually rip the hurricanes apart but they restrengthen once they hit the Florida Straits and if they get into the Gulf it's all shallow warm water giving them lots of fuel.
Just checked the historical data again. Florida is covered with previous hurricane tracks. Now only about 5 storms that haven't hit us. Best chance for us is cuban mountains. Or a south of cuba track. Worse thing about that could be another Texas hit.
Clubber, I look at WU also, especially to look at the different computer model's forecast tracks, but I also check out the histories as well. I go to noaa because they are directing the planes that fly into storms so the nhc has the most recent status. Plus, it is the nhc that has and runs most of the computer weather models, so I read the forecaster's discussion to get an idea what they think is working - or not working - in the forecast tracks of various models.
Note that (whether WU or nhc) every model has Irma making a hard right turn somewhere between Friday and Monday. That is NOT good news for South FL, unless the turn happens early Friday. Every other forecast slams So FL and the Keys.
Stay safe!! I suggest you button up now then go visit your son in ATL for a week or so!
Thanks, but my SO would never leave the animals here and I really have no way to get them to Atlanta. Worse case, I'll send her there later and stay here as I did for andrew.
So much has happened with us in the last year, I don't really know what to do or think. Just play it by ear, I guess.
Im further north than you Clubber it will be tough, but we've been there before, I'm not as young as I was either. but just keep your head up I'll do the same.
Fuck it. Miami is long overdue for an enema. Although, the more recent storm tracks have it headed for the west side of the panhandle. Everyone should know those are all bullshit. It's days and hundreds of miles away, and there are nearly infinite variables that can affect where it goes and how intense it is when it gets there. Like I'm telling all my customers and employees: Don't panic, stay frosty. Make prudent decisions, pray for the best but prepare for the worst. Listen to emergency officials. If they say evacuate, evacuate.
The other part, is that Houston's city council and mayor (democrat party, btw) refused to order an evacuation because they feared the optics of another "Rita" style disaster. They instead left their constituents to suffer, drown, and fend for themselves.
So, even if they do not tell you to evacuate, be able and willing to make smart decisions about your own safety and well-being.
Evacuate? To where? This sucker is nasty. Miami hearld Headline" "Irma becomes strongest Atlantic hurricane outside Gulf and Caribbean ever recorded".
Not really sure what that means. Other than ships, who gives a flip about the Atlantic. Anyway, seems she may be a 4 when it gets here. Better that the andrew 5, was small and quick. This sucker is big and slow. Can do a lot more damage.
When the media reports things like "strongest Atlantic hurricane ever" they forget to include little details like context and perspective. It is the strongest open ocean Atlantic hurricane actually measured - but that measurement only includes hurricanes that US "hurricane hunter" aircraft have flown into (up until 2010 they only flew out as far as the Gulf of Mexico or over the Bahamas and western Carib).
So the "ever recorded" part is really a significant qualifier. Neither NOAA, nor anyone else, can really say how strong other storms were out in the Atlantic over the past 200 years because no one ever measured them. The fact is, Irma is the strongest open ocean Atlantic hurricane in the past 7 years. Any greater claim is misleading.
Of course, that doesn't make the sting any less for the leeward islands - especially the BVI which is dead center bullseye in about 18 hours.
Clubber, are you sure you can't load up the pets, the bike and a few necessities, and maybe even the SO, and head North? It really looks like your neighborhood is gonna' get creamed.
Seriously? I'm at about 9-12 feet above sea level. Florida's highest point, Britton Hill, is 345 feet above sea level in the Florida Panhandle. Looks like it's heading there as well.
I think the fact that I went through andrew with little other than water damage is a testament to my home building skills. Yes, I could head north, but truthfully, don't see the need. I lost one piece of glass and that was "protected" by county approved covering. MY covering, no failures. Now it is projected Irma will be weaker than andrew, but bigger, which will cause more exposure to the extremes. We shall see!
I finished everything about an hour ago. Went to Home Depot for a couple of worker bees. They did a great job, although a lot more costly than normal times,
Glad you guys have your homes prepared. Now get down to the beaches and warn all of the palm trees to hold onto their nuts because this isn't going to be any ordinary blow job. :)
I have never been as apprehensive about a hurricane as I am this one. A big part of it centers around the other recent major changes in my life. That, and I was 43 when andrew hit. Now I'm 68 and certainly not the same physically nor mentally. Also, I don't have the same support group I had those 25 years ago. So much has changed.
I turned in about midnight, and here it is at 4 AM and I'm wide awake since 3 AM. No way can I sleep. I just pray this storm leaves us all with our health, as everything else can be replaced.
Oh, another thing. I am quite sure we will be without power for a long time. We live out in the rural area, so power restoration isn't a top priority for our area. We shall see, but I have bad feelings about this monster approaching us.
I would say that it makes it worse because the most destructive/dangerous part of a hurricane is in the NE quadrant. Moving the center west means pulling the NE quadrant even closer.
We've had Harvey, now Irma, and hurricane Jose is in the Atlantic. Climate scientists have predicted that warmer waters, water atmosphere, would probably make bad hurricanes even worse.
Still making making fun of Al Gore and his climate religion, @Dallas?
I am sure right now no one in the crosshairs has any desire for any politi bullshit, let's get through this then we can argue it out after everyone is safe.
ain't almost no place really safe. hurricane, flood, tornado, earthquake, tusamani, wild fires... not to forget human caused events... hang in there and hope things go well.
My parents (both retired) live in Pasco County. They were going to stay put, but due to the recent developments, they are evacuating. They are going to go stay with my aunt and uncle who live in South Carolina. Since all the major roads have pretty much turned into parking lots, they are going to be taking back roads to get to their destination. Meanwhile, most of their neighbors have chosen not to evacuate.
Stay safe if you live in an area that is going to be effected by the hurricane.
Yes Random, I can still laugh at Al Gore, Barry Soetero and the cult of man made catastrophic global warming. Unlike some here, I have actually taken the time to look at the actual history of Atlantic hurricanes and I know that as bad as Irma may be (it still hasn't gotten to the US) it is not the worst hurricane to threaten the US. It isn't the largest, not is it even going to be the strongest. Harvey was not the worst to hit Texas (not by a long shot - 1900 Galveston, or 1967 Bealuah and about a half dozen others were worse).
Irma, Harvey, Joey and the other 8 named storms so far this year, plus about 8 or so more by the end of November, will make 2017 an historically AVERAGE year for Atlantic hurricanes. Unlike the past 25 years of far BELOW average hurricane activity (when warmist cult members were insisting global warming was going to cause an increase in disaster dealing hurricanes).
So absolutely, I will continue to laugh at uninformed, befuddled fools, who fall for idiot propaganda and believe the sky is falling every time it rains.
Clubber, I am glad you are not longer in the bullseye. Keep safe, please!
Clubber reporting in. So I've now been through one of the 3 cat 5 storms to make landfall in the US AND the biggest baddest recorded Atlantic storm.
I think I would have preferred to sit those out, but alas, I didn't. Anyway, still lots of squalls, but the crux of irma has passed me. I shall wait a bit before I venture out.
BTW, everyone in Florida well get to enjoy this "lady"!
Since everyone here apparently made it out alive, I can go back to making fun of flat-earth climate deniers.
Did you here, @Dallas, that Rush Limbaugh said that on his radio show that Irma was a left-wing conspiracy theory intended to scare people about climate change? Then three days later he evacuated his own place in Florida! LOL! What a fucking idiot!!
You've got plenty of idiot climate-science deniers in the Trump administration. In fact most of cabinet including Trump, Pence, Bannon, Pruittt, Kreutzer, Inhofe, Lamar Smith (probably also @JohnSmith), Rick Perry. Of those, Rick Perry is the biggest idiot. Probably others. I think rejecting the general consensus of the scientific world (and being generally incompetent) is a prerequisite for serving in the Trump administration.
Interestingly, in my travels, I've seen little structural damage. Most all damage is to foliage and crop. Both very important in my area. Getting places open is the big thing now, to me.
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Oh man...
My, totally amateur, ill informed forecast, has a weakened Irma (cat 1 or 2) bouncing off Cuba and next Sunday burying itself in the South FL swamps for a couple of days.
Sorry Clubber, but my guess is that you are going to get your feet wet again! But hey, If (by some miracle) I am right - Miami will get the worst of the water and wind damage and we all know that Miami does need to be pressure washed now and again! (Cruel sick joke, I know - my apologies to folks down there who do get hammered)
Seems no chance of a north swing. A big ass high up in the north Atlantic will keep it pinned south. :(
Just checked the historical data again. Florida is covered with previous hurricane tracks. Now only about 5 storms that haven't hit us. Best chance for us is cuban mountains. Or a south of cuba track. Worse thing about that could be another Texas hit.
I like to use weather underground at www.wunderground.com/hurricane. It seems to be more for the layman then for a meteorologist,
I especially like their historical view. All recorded storm tracks from where current storm is located.
Note that (whether WU or nhc) every model has Irma making a hard right turn somewhere between Friday and Monday. That is NOT good news for South FL, unless the turn happens early Friday. Every other forecast slams So FL and the Keys.
Stay safe!! I suggest you button up now then go visit your son in ATL for a week or so!
Thanks, but my SO would never leave the animals here and I really have no way to get them to Atlanta. Worse case, I'll send her there later and stay here as I did for andrew.
So much has happened with us in the last year, I don't really know what to do or think. Just play it by ear, I guess.
So, even if they do not tell you to evacuate, be able and willing to make smart decisions about your own safety and well-being.
Not really sure what that means. Other than ships, who gives a flip about the Atlantic. Anyway, seems she may be a 4 when it gets here. Better that the andrew 5, was small and quick. This sucker is big and slow. Can do a lot more damage.
So the "ever recorded" part is really a significant qualifier. Neither NOAA, nor anyone else, can really say how strong other storms were out in the Atlantic over the past 200 years because no one ever measured them. The fact is, Irma is the strongest open ocean Atlantic hurricane in the past 7 years. Any greater claim is misleading.
Of course, that doesn't make the sting any less for the leeward islands - especially the BVI which is dead center bullseye in about 18 hours.
Clubber, are you sure you can't load up the pets, the bike and a few necessities, and maybe even the SO, and head North? It really looks like your neighborhood is gonna' get creamed.
Seriously? I'm at about 9-12 feet above sea level. Florida's highest point, Britton Hill, is 345 feet above sea level in the Florida Panhandle. Looks like it's heading there as well.
I think the fact that I went through andrew with little other than water damage is a testament to my home building skills. Yes, I could head north, but truthfully, don't see the need. I lost one piece of glass and that was "protected" by county approved covering. MY covering, no failures. Now it is projected Irma will be weaker than andrew, but bigger, which will cause more exposure to the extremes. We shall see!
I know, but couldn't resist. An even worse forecast 8 AM today for us in S. Florida. Direct hit!
Hope to wrap up preparations today.
To all my Florida friends...
Make smart decisions and keep yourselves and families safe.
I don't expect I 'll get there under the present circumstances, sadly!
I turned in about midnight, and here it is at 4 AM and I'm wide awake since 3 AM. No way can I sleep. I just pray this storm leaves us all with our health, as everything else can be replaced.
Still making making fun of Al Gore and his climate religion, @Dallas?
I'll take a hurricane over any of those you mention.
Stay safe if you live in an area that is going to be effected by the hurricane.
Irma, Harvey, Joey and the other 8 named storms so far this year, plus about 8 or so more by the end of November, will make 2017 an historically AVERAGE year for Atlantic hurricanes. Unlike the past 25 years of far BELOW average hurricane activity (when warmist cult members were insisting global warming was going to cause an increase in disaster dealing hurricanes).
So absolutely, I will continue to laugh at uninformed, befuddled fools, who fall for idiot propaganda and believe the sky is falling every time it rains.
Clubber, I am glad you are not longer in the bullseye. Keep safe, please!
I think I would have preferred to sit those out, but alas, I didn't. Anyway, still lots of squalls, but the crux of irma has passed me. I shall wait a bit before I venture out.
BTW, everyone in Florida well get to enjoy this "lady"!
Did you here, @Dallas, that Rush Limbaugh said that on his radio show that Irma was a left-wing conspiracy theory intended to scare people about climate change? Then three days later he evacuated his own place in Florida! LOL! What a fucking idiot!!
You've got plenty of idiot climate-science deniers in the Trump administration. In fact most of cabinet including Trump, Pence, Bannon, Pruittt, Kreutzer, Inhofe, Lamar Smith (probably also @JohnSmith), Rick Perry. Of those, Rick Perry is the biggest idiot. Probably others. I think rejecting the general consensus of the scientific world (and being generally incompetent) is a prerequisite for serving in the Trump administration.