Last week I reiterated my call for caution in the markets and suggested short term players might even want to go short right now. Today the warning signals got louder. Even though the indices moved little on their own there were warning signs building in derivatives land. Tonight there is more warning signs out in Asia: so far no official news to explain it.
Something big seems to be brewing.
Not clear yet what the move is about, but it's somewhat stealthy. Possibly geopolitical, but, yes, it could also be due to the Fed's policy shift. A good report would just spur that on (along with Yellen's comments today). Or it could be a combo of the two factors. It's often interesting how things seems to happen to "coincidentally" happen at the same time.
Papi; Which job report do you mean? The unofficial ADP one that Dougie was crowing about because it was sooooooo good, or the official Government report, which came in at 1/3 the number and sucked?
@skihomo: One is just private sector the other includes government works. I thought a guy would like you would be happy to see the size of government shrinking.
^^^Asia is where the action is right now
^^^ I thought the "action" was in da "Front Room"?
^^^That's where you spend the money you make with your action.
You mean how the Russell 2000 has been having lower highs for several days and large speculators have more money long and at record levels than the smart money like in 2007? What could possibly go wrong when some are now predicting Dow 30,000 and all the retail investors are all getting bullish at record levels like in 2007?
I noticed a virtual trade I made yesterday is now losing money. I just wanted to observe how price moved though. I see the virtual side of the cboe exchange does not have real time option position updates. I'm wondering who does.
All three of my brokers will show real time option prices.
No real time option pricing updates I mean. My position size isn't changing.
^^^Retail is rough now and for the near term Amazon is eating everybody's lunch
I'm wondering if it's because it's a virtual account.
Korea is definitely a factor.
Maybe I'll set up a virtual account on options express.
^^^Going to be for a while til something shakes loose then everybody will say they were expecting it and the call will be priced in.
@shark: could be. But if you have an options enabled account (even if you don't trade options) you should be able to get real time data. If your allowed could try asking for options trading in your 401k or IRA. Then you should be able to get the real time quotes.
Oh yeah, Trump said something about Syria, next day missile strike. He also said something about North Korea while meeting with the Chinese leader. Might have struck a secret deal to take out someone after strike fleet in place. It would take a few days to get the fleet near NKorea.. Downside Risk. Nuclear war, hundreds of thousands dead, plus side. End of North Korea as a separate threat.
@25: No something looks imminent, as in this month. But also looks like it will only be short term. At least that's what options are saying right now.
I was going to set up my accounts for options trading. I was just wondering why the virtual account had the big price delay in real time data. Probably they don't pay much attention to the virtual side. Might only be 15 minutes but that can be a big move in option prices.
Lol! Yep. Option can move 10% or more in 15 minutes. Real time data costs your broker money, so they usually have some requirements regarding your account before they pass it on to you.
@ Dougster I agree but I always remember second mouse gets the cheese.
@25: that's a good saying, but when were the first mice? Back at the end of Feb or now?
I think back at the end of Feb. I also think they have already worked out something btw China and Tillerson re Korea.
It does make me wonder which broker has the best option pricing with real time position data and lowest fees and commissions. Based on the virtual data, I'm definitely not going to use the cboe site if their virtual is like a real account.
Scotrade is behind the times with their outdated fees not dropping to match fidelity but fidelity has terrible phone response time if you call customer service.
Traders game is a chumps game.
Spend all that time trying to guess what's happening on the short end when long term you're better of leaving it alone.
Why risk your time and the money? Long term and diversification will be the only free lunch.
Wasn't Scottrade sold to TDAmeritrade recently?
Yes it was.
@JG: very true. I mostly don't comment on the short or what I'm doing short term, unless it seems very clear what will happen next. If you mostly just buy and hold and then jump in on good short term setups maybe two or three times a year, it can be worthwhile.
There's a lot more money to be made with options and other strategies rather than buy and hold plus you can reduce your risk versus a buy and hold strategy. You have to know what you are doing though. A buy and hold strategy could earn 5 or 10% a year on one stock with the full price of your stock at risk. I can buy options for the stock at a fraction of the price, reduce my risk, and reap bigger rewards but there is a lot more to keep track of. It's not as easy as buy and hold. It's kind of like running a business.
As for time spent. I find time spent thinking about world and economic affairs is interesting in own right. Along with the math and computer science involved.
Short term a drop to 2337 or maybe even lower especially if Trump attacks NK. They say ignore the news though when it comes to technical analysis. The trend of the vix is up.
When the market is leading the news seems like the best setups. I haven't looked at CNN or Bloomberg yet today? Are they commenting on the drop yet?
@Dougster
I must confess I have a trading account which is minuscule as a % of my wealth. It is my play money in speculating. After I speculated half of it in energy and commodities, I decided my efforts were pointless and left it alone to finally come back to even, when the rest of my wealth invested in the overall market has done all of us well. I remember my net worth was half of what it is now 10 years ago, and all of my profits have been made investing from 2008-2013, when the chicken littles were quick to point out all of the flaws in the markets, ala SJG.
I had an advisor tell me to never risk more than 10% of your portfolio in individual stocks, and I've always played with less than that.
This is hysterical. The Government jobs report just deals with Government employment? Total bullshit. The ADP report was wrong and yet, someone isn't man enough to admit it. The very wealthy always post here roflmao.
I don't know what everybody else has commented on this before me, but I got over 30% of my portfolio in mid caps, and the Russell 2000 is posting a moderate gain today of .35 %. I take that as a success.
If you cash out its a success; if you don't its just speculation.
That's what has been said for years and yet it just keeps going higher, even after the short term dips in the market. If it's money I won't be needing for years, cashing out and reinvesting at another time or something different would be more speculative. Not sure we are comparing apples to apples when people discuss investing goals. For some novice people they believe investing is a game to see how much money you can make in as little time as possible. For me it's how I can set myself up for a better future, not a better today. I could care less what the market does today, tomorrow, next week or next year, because I know it will be way higher in 10-30 years. That's when I'll be needing to spend it, not now.
Anybody can beat almost any investment advisor by diversifying and letting it go and not touching it over a period of 10 years or longer. That's free advice no advisor is willing to let you know due to conflict in their business model. If they tell you it really is as simple as that there wouldn't be an investment advisory business for snake oil salesmen to work.
^^^Meat you are right, and also wrong, some people can benefit from an investment advisor, the truth is diversifying is more difficult than many people realize, mainly because of market overlap, with that being said holding for the long term quality equities, and quality debentures is the way to go, my personal preference is solid ETFs and Blue Chips, with a flyer in some new issues in up and coming technologies. My own situation is much more complicated as we traded PMS several months back, but over a period of 27 years I very satisfied with the advice I have been given.
IDK if it still applieds, but pre-2008, analysis would indicate that those that got out of the market in major downturns took longer to recoup their loses than those that rode it thru (of course assuming you didn't get out at the perfect time and didn't get in at the perfect time, which hardly anyone is wble to do).
@skihomo:You need to learn to read. Guess they didn't teach you that in law school. I said the NFP report include government jobs, whereas ADP is only private sector. I didn't say NFP was government only. It's both. Get a clue, moron! Once you understand that you see the difference is explained by the private sector gaining lots of jobs while government lost them. Holy Christ, are you one dumb fuck!
@Jim: I'm a little over 10% in SPY puts right now. Long term accounts (esp other people's) I'm leaving untouched.
IDK the name of the report/metric, but it measures the # of available/unfilled jobs and that it was at the highest level in 7-months - low unemployment rate with a healthy # of unfilled jobs seems like a nice combo - although the low employment-participation rate is worrisome
Papi: " although the low employment-participation rate is worrisome "
No necessarily. Could just mean more people are going to school, taking time off for whatever reason, retiring early.
Now getting back to the day to day action: we had another day of little net movement in the averages, but big gains in implied volatility of options.
The large baby-boom retiree wave is def a big, if not biggest, component of those not in the work-force - and I assume this is a drag on the economy b/c many are not drawing a paycheck but are drawing large gov expenses via Medicare and Social Security
Wow! Just checked the closing price on the Russell 2000 to see it went up almost .75 % today. That's a decent profit by any measure. I made over $5k in one day's mediocre movement. Couldn't do that sitting in cash.
The Russell's under performed quite a bit this year, but I definitely noticed that it had bids all day yesterday. And when something is strongly green when everything is red, it could be a sign of good things to come.
Now I won't mention how much my SPY puts were up by comparison. That would be a kind of an apples to oranges comparison. :-)
Nice! ^^^
My biggest victory has been being a miser, and hoarding cash instead of spending on frivolous things, like paying hookers for sex.
Living below my means and not worrying about my investments provides me the greatest security. Spider options. Call away....
Remember, everything which Dougster tells you is privileged information. The pension and insurance fund managers set the prices by their own moves. But Dougster knows things which they never could. So despite the fact that they act on what they can know, what Dougster is telling you is beyond them. Dougster's advice is not in any way reflected in the current prices.
SJG
Watching the news this evening contemplating taking some profits and buying some more in the oil patch supply companies , I'm thinking Trump definitely has a deal with China about N. Korea, and maybe in return Trump sacrificed the American steel producers. Methinks maybe some Chinese steel might be allowed in(as part of the deal) to produce oil pipelines, drilling equipment, and it might even tie in with his infrastructure program (think bridge , airport, and wall construction projects) The next few weeks will tell.
Sounds rather like gambling on athletic events. There's one born every minute. Have fun 25. But others of has have more interesting things to do.
SJG
It's funny how in one breath san_jose_guy will tell you that fund manager are omniscient/omnipotent and then in the next that HE knows market values are too high. Sorry, SJG, but these fund managers are rarely able to beat the S&P over the long term. Even if they have a big name like Bill Ackman.
I'm not sure 25: he was tweeting that the US could/would take care of N Korea itself if China didn't help, after you commented they might already have a deal.
Also I'm not sure so sure N Korea would listen to China either.
No, I am not saying that the fund managers know everything. I am saying that the fund managers are the main influence over what the current price is. They handle so much money that the market follows them. So when you give advice, you are just rationalizing why the current prices are what they are. You don't know anything the fund managers don't, and they handle so much money that they in large measure determine the prices. These markets are not 'efficient', because a small handful of people are able to steer the prices.
Sure, gambling can be fun. And sure lots of people get off on giving financial advice. But we need to be honest about what all of this is, bullshit.
SJG
Are you I'm not a fund manager myself, SJG? :-)
No, I don't know that you are not a fund manager. If you were, you would be taking advantage of people, leading them to believe that you advice is predictive, rather than just a rationalization for what actions you had already taken.
What I also know is that you are getting a huge ego trip from giving out financial speculation advice, and that advice is worthless at best.
SJG
@Dougster We'll know soon enough, I believe that we are already co-ordinating with China. China really doesn't want a nuclear war on their border, Mr Trump has done an abrupt 180* turn around on his campaign rhetoric, remember we'll be friends with Russia, and I'll label China a currency manipulator and slap sanctions, now he is saying exactly the opposite.
Wrong, b/c for years I have been telling people that the market was nowhere near a top and not to be afraid. Especially during the panics. I've also recommended some good short term play when there have been panics.
Your advice: telling people to say out of the markets b/c they are a bubble has been the bad advice.
Twentyfive, Betting on what the President and on what other countries are going to do?
Dougster, No, I have said to invest your money in your own affairs. These markets are a bubble because they could come down at any time. Investing in your own affairs, at least you have some degree of influence, and also you are getting other benefits in applying your abilities more fully.
SJG
You tell people it is no where near the top because you are a Ponzi Scheme Fraudster.
Dougster = Fraudster
SJG
@25: Yeah, vote for A and you get not A in office instead. The funniest thing is that his followers won't care less if he flips on a 100 issues.
Good point about his comments today on currency!
I think I know who you are talking about. And I've said before that SJG is one third that guy, one third alucard, and one third his own peculiar craziness.
But just thank about this one: Maybe his statement is just protective. Could it be that he is the Fraud for try to represent himself as some kind of revolutionary/save the world crusader on this board? When all he really wants is, as mikeya put it, a weird sex cult.
^^^^^ Fraudster, getting off on giving his bullshit advice which has zero predictive power and is only based on those very insights which have already influenced the fund managers and the current prices.
Fraudster, Fraudster, Fraudster.
SJG
I've been "predicting" the market would go up for years now. You, OTOH, have called it a bubble about to burst. and, at the beginning of 2016 even said it was bursting.
Now I would say that you are the one zero predictive powers, but, I don't think that's exactly what you right. You actually do have some predictive powers, provide people understand that the way the market behaves is negatively correlated with what you say.
:-)
That fits in with my SJG is ALWAYS wrong hypothesis. Take it to the bank.
I'm saying that it is better to invest you money and all of your other talents into your own ventures, and into those undertaken by people in your own close circle of associates.
I do say that the current stock market is an unstainable bubble, but I also acknowledge that no one can predict what it will do tomorrow.
You Fraudster are giving out advice like you have some predictive ability. Fraudster!
SJG
@Dougster i personally don't care what his followers think, Mr. Trump is the president of the United States at present and he has to be running into some cold hard reality now, so at this point he may very well be crazy but he still needs to act in the best interests of this country. If it means doing the opposite of what he said when he was running for office then he really has no choice in the matter, the funny part is how the timing of the crises that occur is causing the negative news stories he generates, to veer wildly, in directions that even a novelist couldn't make up. If you think about it what he is doing (don't listen to what he is saying) is just the normal predictable moves that anyone sitting in that seat would be making.
SJG does bring up an interesting point/paradox though. If fund managers really have zero predictive ability, and, OTOH SJG has non-zero predictive ability, even though it's negative. Then it's actually better to listen to him than a fund manager... provided you understand that guys like SJG and the other guy who called me "Fraudster" are negatively correlated versus zero correlated.
SJG: "I'm saying that it is better to invest you money and all of your other talents into your own ventures, and into those undertaken by people in your own close circle of associates."
You now I was actually think of maybe in three years or so, start my own quant/hedge fund with some of my buddies. Would that be following your advice? :-)
This thread is so much easier to follow without looking at that idiot from San Jose's nattering nabobs of insanity.
Dougster, I'm no friend/buddy of yours, but starting a hedge fund with long positions and short coverings is a good sale that makes most people who nothing about investing feel safe. Full upside market potential with gains from short protections if you can call them right with minimal risk in calls and puts.
It's what people want to hear, so count me in as one of your sales men. Of course we would have to be vetted at a tuscl approved club. Mongering skills can translate to good business skills.
I was a little bit surprised a buy order got executed late yesterday for the Russell 2000 index yesterday. It should either go up or down. I bet the odds of that are close to 100%.
On the one hand it is good that there is so much skepticism that there is nothing you can do better than buy and hold an index fund. That's probably true for 99% of the population. And among those who think it doesn't apply to them it might be even higher than that. :-)
On the other, there are at least four of the bigger hedge funds that have consistently beat the S&P over a long period along with GS, so it's an interesting case of a false but beneficial belief.
@shark: I actually took some profits in PM yesterday and rolled the money into IWM yesterday. Not my own account, but one I'm looking after.
I mean use your abilities to do something constructive!
Dougster, even if you have lived you adult life as a parasite. Undoubtedly you do have other abilities.
SJG
@SJG: as I mentioned before there is no way a sane person could consider me and my co-workers parasitic. The services we provide are in such high demand that the revenue per employee in my group eclipses even Google.
Anyway, if anyone in the world was "born to finance" it is me. I was pretty much set on that course even when I still in the craddle.
...And now getting back to this thread.
Wow! What an exciting day! We are basically at a mini-Cuban Missile Crisis moment. Wonder how the folks in Seoul will be sleeping this weekend?
I decided not to press those SPY puts into the weekend and went with a very small call position into the weekend: about 2.5% of my personal account. I think the most likely scenario (75% chance) is that there is no military conflict but they keep the pressure up on him throughout next week. If the worst case scenario plays our and Seoul does get hit, I think the least of anyone's worries will be how well they did in the market. So I'm now an atheist praying for the best.
"Anyway, if anyone in the world was "born to finance" it is me. I was pretty much set on that course even when I still in the craddle."
A societal cancer.
SJG
^^^^^^^^^^ Dougster = Rosemary's Baby
SJG
I think a better option than striking at North Korea would be making an agreement with China to cut off food supplies if NK doesn't stop shooting missiles and making threats. They might consider that a strike but it wouldn't be a military one and China would be on our side. As far as I'm concerned, I would rather see China invade NK rather than the US do anything except back up China. The agreement would be to remove the leadership of NK or change the government, not become part of China.
No idea why you think that way. Other than you are insane.
No matter what, Dougster and his disciples will be figuring out how to make money off of it by speculating.
Don't help Dougster. Best is to not even talk to him.
SJG
Speculation = Fatalism
SJG
@shark: I think it all comes to a head on whether he goes ahead with the nuclear test which he has been told not to carry out. It will all be known by the time the markets open on Sunday. If he doesn't he can talk at big a game as he won. But he lost. He'll be like txittyfag(dot) here after we crushed him. If goes ahead with the test but strike on the South he's written his on death sentence it's just a matter of time. If does go ahead with a strike on the South God help us all.
There's no such thing as fate, SJG. Interestingly there is no such thing as free will either.
^^^^^^ All potential more money for Dougster and his minions.
May their wings melt like was before a fire.
SJG
Not fate, fatalism.
SJG
I was gong to mention I back tested a stock back to August last year not even trading options where I could have made 88%. Better the longer I go back. I plan on checking father back. I have no automated software to check what I'm looking at. I think I see a lack of tools for the ordinary public since I have to take data manually and set up trading conditions and calculate the data Using excel. Actually I'm using very simple data points so I'm wondering how far back it works on this one etf. Also wondering how many other etfs out there that might be like it. I'm not going to mention which Etf I'm looking at.
sharkhunter, also fatalism
SJG
@sharkhunter: TradeStation has good back testing tools. If you trade enough or have a large enough account you can get access to them for free. The have a simple secret language "EasyLanguage".
Other options are Quantopian and QuantConnect. QuantConnect if you are dealing with options. In that case you use Python or a .NET language.
What kind of odds to they give you these days, betting for and betting against the weather forecast?
SJG
Sorry, I meant "scripting language" not secret language.
You meant diabolical conspiracy language.
SJG
@SJG: You mean weather futures? Or slightly indirectly ag futures?
Wow SJG is a dumb bastard. He works in tech but doesn't know what Python or .Net is.
How about roulette wheel futures?
SJG
How about hedges against your imaginary revolution? I heard they are going for pennies, er, pico-pennies on the dollar.
If NK launches a nuclear strike on the South, it's all over for North Korea. It's just a matter how many will die and how quickly. China has nukes and we have nukes and I don't think China is going to sit by while NK launches nukes but I could be wrong. It would make the US send nukes to NK. I doubt China wants that either since they will have to track them to make sure nothing goes off course towards China. We do have some new tech I read about that is like a massive barrage that can be fired from naval ships. Think automatic rail gun fire like in the movie Transformers but make it like automatic gun fire from several guns on each ship. We could take out their missiles shortly after they launch long before NK can hit any targets. I heard we developed the defensive system as a counter defense against new Chinese rocket systems so that the Chinese could not take out our navy in a surprise attack. I heard all this in a video from someone trying to sell me a subscription. Well parts of it. I extrapolated the rest about NK. The video said nothing was secret information.
It's going to be a rough few days, that's for sure. Too much going on to process right now, we need to see where the other shoe drops. My bet is the Chinese are furiously working on as many back channels as they have, I don't think they want this. My bet is it gets resolved quietly, and the militaries stand down (I hope)
Thanks Dougster. I will check out the information. I've done some programming many years ago and like the idea of automating trading to remove emotions from decisions. I have access to some software already so I will see what I already have access to. I was just surprised to see an EtF the other day I could have made a fortune on. Might be getting ready to drop like a rock though.
Someone made a prediction that North Korea would be united with South Korea this year. Made me wonder if that was some crazy Nostradmus prediction.
I don't think there is much doubt North Korea would quickly lose any war they start. Get wiped off the map. But how many S Korean causalities would it cost? Unless you are talking hundreds or maybe very lows thousands doesn't seem worth it.
I'm wondering if officially, all of our naval ships aren't equipped with smart bullets yet. A quick Google search. engadget.com
As much as I fucking hate Trump, his crazy, reckless, ignorant approach to foreign policy might actually work here. The Chinese must be thinking "hey this guy Trump is crazy as fuck and might just make a preemptive attack on N. Korea." We better put some real economic pressure on Jong-un. So Trump might succeed where everyone else failed by virtue of being crazy and unpredictable.
Yeah, I never understood the full out personal insult attacks on any of our presidents, including Carter and Obama.
The decisions they make are not alone in a void. They mostly have an administration of thousands that consult and try to govern from that, but since we live in a society that always wants to place fault on someone it runs uphill to the top. It's really not Trumps decision to do these things, it's just a puppet like nod "yes" or "no" whether action is taken or not.
Do you really think he knows anything more than you or me before being elected? Obviously not, but seriously I try not to even think about current issues because on the big picture it means little. If shit were to hit the fan we would have worse things to worry about than markets. We would be hoarding non perishable goods and ammunition and building our own bunkers, and that's if the shut came over to our country. If that happens currencies would be rendered useless along with the financial markets. Have a little faith because it goes a long ways.
Fraudster,
I'm not leading any revolution, imaginary or otherwise. But I do believe in hard work and letting people develop their abilities, and in supporting people to believe in themselves and not succumb to herd pressure. And surprise surprise, to further these ends I am building a counter cultural group.
You are the antithesis of everything I believe in. May you suffer from untreatable ED!
SJG
@RandomMember Mr Trump love him or hate him needs to succeed, I hate to think of the consequences of failure at this juncture.
^^^^ Well put!
SJG
Sammy Hagar Standing Hampton Album Cover inthestudio.net
Gareth Knight angelfire.com
Lots and lots of books, connected to Dion Fortune, his own tarot deck angelfire.com
Magical Battle of Britain: Past and Present Perspectives
youtube.com
Random: "So Trump might succeed where everyone else failed by virtue of being crazy and unpredictable"
Game theory dictates that it's generally good to have your opponents think you're crazy even if you're not.
SJG: "You are the antithesis of everything I believe in."
Good, because you're a fag.
You're probably right, but what works for @Juice in a poker match may not be the right choice for a superpower. I vastly prefer Obama's temperament and personality -- the way he would think things through carefully, rationally, and ask for other opinions. Trump's just the opposite; the kind of guy who Tweets out his emotions at 3AM is not the guy you want to give the nuclear codes. And the bombing so far in Syria and Afganistan just seems like so much dick-waving.
I doubt Trump is crazy enough to launch some preemptive attack on NK. If FatBoy continues to misbehave, Trump will probably move some battleships around or install more Troops in S. Korea. Hopefully there's some diplomatic solution involving sanctions. @25 usually has good political instincts, and I think he's right in saying that all paths toward a non-military solution go through China.
The President should know more. Trump seems sort of lazy, ignorant, and vindictive. He inherited a lot of money and don't think he's ever had to sweat the details like the rest of us. IDK, maybe all the saber -rattling, dick-waving, and bombing will work out okay. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.
Right now Korean crisis seems contained, no nuclear tests, keep in mind Trump is at Mar-A-Lago with no senior members of NSC staff, Chinese have moved three army divisions closer to their border with N. Korea, seems like its all over but the shouting, my bet is markets move up nicely Monday. This always felt at least to me a bit contrived, Trump offering some showmanship, to make his approval ratings rise a bit, that should help him with his domestic agenda.
I just learned that Trump has given his front line advisors autonomy to make decisions without his approval. Two sides of the coin here, because to a certain degree this is common, but not as common during possible acts of battles and strategic military. Trumps point is that things will get done as opposed to Obamas administration where things went up the chain of command and then back down again resulting in little being done.
My initial feeling is this is not such a good system, but then again what does trump really know? This definitely is not in his wheel house of experience. I hope the generals have good judgement.
Yes it was nice to see no nuclear test by North Korea today. The markets should like that. The only glitch is that they are saying the missiles paraded seemed to be more advanced than anticipated. So we'll have to see how hard Trump wants to press things.
I'm glad I don't hold those puts into the week, but I suspect any market bounce will be short lived since there were other things bothering the market and Korea is likely not over yet. Nevertheless, just a few small hurdles to clear, IMO, and we could be back in a raging rally once again.
@Dougster the missiles on NK's parade are almost surely mock-ups, I doubt they would put the real thing on display for a pre-emptive strike or international scrutiny.
Market was looking for an excuse to sell off before going back up to new all time highs. The mother of all bombs and talk about NK was the perfect excuse. I'm wondering if the Russell index will sell off to reach a strong support level before bouncing or just take off making people chase it up. If respective parties can get some kind of health care deal going, then do tax reform, markets might pop up big if they got that all done relatively soon. Someone needs to stress tax cuts, health care reform are what both sides on the Republican side claim they want and that compromise may be in everyone's favor. Personally I would raise taxes on the rich or not give them tax breaks while giving tax breaks to the middle class and poor and those 48 and older on health care premiums. The rich would get tax breaks if it benefited the other poorer classes. Tax breaks on corporations benefit those poorer in my opinion if it creates lots of good paying jobs here in the US.
"Game theory dictates that it's generally good to have your opponents think you're crazy even if you're not."
That sound like your master philosophy for everything Dougster.
SJG
To my untrained eye, they looked just like painted Pringles cans. One of them blew up today on launch. How embarrassing is that!
My concern is that someone in power starts thinking if we do nothing, then eventually NK will be able to sell and launch nuclear missiles into the US or sell them to Iran who could launch them at Israel or Europe and then we are faced with a nuclear war. Israel's strategy I read if they are attacked by nuclear weapons is not just to counter strike but to launch attacks on all their enemies. They have nukes too. There may be a bunch of radiation circling the globe before we know it. If that ever becomes the case, no one will probably care about the stock market because money will become worthless.
^^^ I honestly don't know how you go about dealing with tin-pot dictators once they have nuclear weapons.
"No one will probably care about the stock market because money will become worthless."
Hmmmm very intelligent comment. I think i remember seeing it earlier, too. I wonder who else could be as smart enough to recognize this connection?
^^^^^^ What country are you referring to there Random?
SJG
Mexico City, Paradise on Earth doxyspotting.com
Georges Delerue: Platoon - Finale, I think it would be very difficult to learn to write music like this. youtube.com
full soundtrack, written by multiple parties youtube.com
Sane occultism, by Dion Fortune, copies of 1967 UK edition available.
When the market does decide to do a 10% pullback, which is normal any time now, guys like SJG and others of his ilk will be screaming the sky is falling.
When that happens it will be your big tip to buy even more. Today I was up over 1%, taking back any losses from last week, but then again I won't need this money for 10-40 years, assuming a stripper doesn't give me a terminal disease.
@SJG -- Both Assad and Jong-un could qualify as tin-pot dictators. Both have superpower friends, but N. Korea is the one with nukes.
Not sure if the above link works for everyone, but it's new article from Economist on Fed unwinding of QE. Says pretty much what @Meat said earlier about doing it in a way that's predictable. An excerpt:
"There are different ways to shrink the balance-sheet. The most aggressive approach would be to sell bonds. This would please QE’s critics, who claim a large balance-sheet distorts financial markets. But nobody is certain what the effects of unwinding QE will be, and the Fed wants its policies to be predictable. So it is more likely to let the balance sheet gradually “run off”, by ceasing to reinvest, in new securities, the money it receives when its bonds mature. That happens constantly. For example, $425bn of its Treasuries come due in 2018 and another $350bn in 2019. The Fed could stop reinvesting some proportion of this money. Or it could pick the simplest option, which is to halt reinvestments altogether."
...and Trump has made his latest flip-flop to be in favor of low interests rates and maybe staying with Yellen.
What we seem to be hearing on tonight's news is that failure by K Korea's missile launch, wasn't as much a failure as it seems. That our cyber or electronics had a hand in causing something to happen. Let's stay tuned and see what develops.
Kind of strange the financials were rallying yesterday after Trump's big "low rate" bombshell on Friday. Seemed to me like a "fake move". I think there is only a bit of time left in this dip off the highs, but not over just yet...
2018 is when the first 20% correction that we will see. Party on!
Why do you think 2018?
Actually it seems like it may be time to get out of any short positions, and start preparing to find bargains in the market, I look for companies that are strong with assets that are greater than their market caps.
2018, obviously Dougster, our own trustworthy guide into the New World Order.
SJG
Actually @Meat it is starting to look like a correction is inevitable before the third quarter this year, no panic it will work through. It is starting with retail sales, that's where they often start
^^^^^ twentyfive, a committed believer.
SJG
^^^Pathetic, broke, homeless, dope, committed to never getting ahead, just barely subsisting. Boy what a dummy.
I guess that makes me twentyfive's shadow.
SJG
twentyfive, everyone has skills. Best if they use them, use their money, time, and talent together, and with a circle of associates which they can build up.
But if you listen to Fraudster and his ilk, you will come to believe that only gambling on things you have zero control over, like betting on tomorrow's weather, is all that matters.
SJG
I don't think it's quite time to get out of short positions yet, but it's very close. Good time to get shopping list of what to buy if we clear a few more hurdles here.
French president debates are tomorrow. I doubt any short terms players are looking to be either very long or very short going into the weekend. I certainly think it's a 50% chance of anything bad, but (current) it's asymmetric risks to the downside. Likely I'll have some far out of the money puts which will probably go to zero, but if not should get at least a triple or quadruple out of them.
^^^ so meant less than 50% chance of anything bad.
Time to get out of short positions?
Its time to stop listening to Dougster.
SJG
Should they listen to you instead, san_jose_fag?
I believe in time rates will normalize so I'm guessing another year. The rationale has the risk free rate will go up so why would people continue to take risks in stocks when they can get a guarantee fixed rate paying 3-4% with no market risk?
That's what my prediction centers around, the normalizing of interest rates and an increase in the risk free rate. This will disincentive everyone who has been into the stock market. Plus, companies will not be able to refinance their debts any longer which allows them to buy back their stock. With more supply on the market from less buy backs the forces at play will drive down stock prices for a period of time.
Basically I'm saying is that this scenario is a normal market cycle that I think will happen in a year or two.
@SJG if you have nothing positive to add to the convo get the fuck out of here and go back to psycho .com, or where the fuck ever you came from.
People are better to invest in themselves, rather than in things which they have zero control over and very little knowledge about. You guys should stop propagating your toxic bull shit.
SJG
[Talk Gnosis] Martinism & Gnosticism youtube.com
[Talk Gnosis] Sex for Gnostics youtube.com
^^^"You guys should stop propogating your toxic bullshit."
San Jose guy, you do realize you e alienated yourself with that comment from the majority of people who live and breath, that have money invested in pensions, 401k's, IRAs, employer plans, brokerage accounts, college savings plans, and mutual funds along with a host of other vehicles.
Your own propaganda against investing in the markets is really showing your ignorance and stupidity about this topic. People who do invest in their own own abilities and talents andvare successful in themselves believe it or not also invest in markets, because it is the prudent thing to do. So you see you should invest in your own abilities and talents for which you have control, and in order to diversify you also need to invest in the markets because people's facilities will deteriorate over time, so they can't use their talents and abilities forever. Therefore successful long term investing in the markets will allow them to continue to be independent with wealth long after their health begins to decline. By not investing in the markets really says to that person that you have missed the opportunities to hedge against inflation. That's a sad position that you take SJG!
^^^^@JG he is a broke loser he doesn't make enough money to get a haircut how the hell would he ever invest in anything. How about just we ignore the turd even though he is the obvious stain.
People would do better in a host of different ways by 'investing' investing in themselves. That they would not automatically see this, says that they have already been alienated from their own abilities. It had been alienated labor, now it is alienated bourgeoisies.
SJG
London Chaos Magic Girl youtube.com
"Chaos Magik" started in North London in the 1970's, breaking with the tradition of Aleister Crowley and Kenneth Grant. So what is different about North London from the rest of London? What is North London like?
more Chatty Chaos Magik Girl youtube.com
"Casino Royale" FULL SOUNDTRACK ALBUM 1967 STEREO youtube.com
That girl with the two silenced pistols is a great image.
bouffant, pinterest.com
Twentyfive, clearly a guy with more dollars than sense.
SJG
SJG once again showing how utterly stupid and desperate he is for attention.
SJG's brain is made out of shit.
As for the markets: feels like there is a million raging bulls just waiting for the French elections to clear. A few of them decided to breakout early today.
And remember, what Dougster is telling you could not possibly be already reflected in current pricing.
SJG
I think sjg just tosses a coin between which of two contradictory positions he'll argue from day to day:
if heads: stocks are overvalued! it's a bubble! stay out! (so bubble burst is not reflected in current prices)
if tails: everything is already perfectly reflected in current prices!
But I guess he is such a nut job that since he doesn't notice the contradiction he thinks nobody else will either.
SJG = complete psycho
well when you have a brain made of shit and can't comprehend things it is not a good situation
When Dougster speaks we need to act at once! tuscl.net
SJG
8" Platform Heels youtube.com
9" Platform Heels youtube.com
Elsa in 10 inch Pleaser Beyond Heels Stockings 12 GAGE Clothing youtube.com ( I plan to have a stage and a pole, and a high ceiling, in my own home. For photo sessions. I'll supply every girl with extreme heels, stockings, and other naughty things. )
SJG's brain is made of shit!
SJG speaker for the Asperger's organization and president of brains made of shit organization.
Well there seems to be some relief today. For all who have short positions, is this insurance or protection you're hedging, or are you trying to make profit in this environment?
There is no profit in prognostication. Nobody is clairvoyant.
I handle an asymmetric strangle (229 puts + 237 calls on SPY) + long positions in GS going in plus some smaller positions. I wasn't sure which way the election would go, but thought the move would be big enough the strangle would work. That's my personal account.
Managed accounts I left untouched and didn't hedge. Haven't touched them for months really, except some rotation of PM into IWM, which appears to have been well timed.
clairvoyance is not required...
GS I picked up pretty much last minute on Friday. Wasn't sure why there wasn't more buying when Trump announce review (i.e. cutting) of bank regs. Figured everyone was scared of France, but I'd take a shot.
PM would actually be a good example of dumb luck. I bought it for the dividend which was around 3.5% at the time, then it goes and runs up 20% (much more than I expected) in just a few months. So I had no choice but to take profits and put it in IWM.
"ET's to Dougster, tell then to put their profits in IWM. If you do a good job with this Dougie, they'll keep listening to you from now on. But remember, you only get a 72 hour lead. And if you expect your clairvoyance to continue, we expect you to deliver. Handle it well and we'll make sure you get some extra cash so you can pay some naked ape hookers for sex."
SJG
What about the great job reports of late