Markets Today/Tonight
Last week I reiterated my call for caution in the markets and suggested short term players might even want to go short right now. Today the warning signals got louder. Even though the indices moved little on their own there were warning signs building in derivatives land. Tonight there is more warning signs out in Asia: so far no official news to explain it.
Something big seems to be brewing.
Something big seems to be brewing.
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164 comments
I noticed a virtual trade I made yesterday is now losing money. I just wanted to observe how price moved though. I see the virtual side of the cboe exchange does not have real time option position updates. I'm wondering who does.
Spend all that time trying to guess what's happening on the short end when long term you're better of leaving it alone.
Why risk your time and the money? Long term and diversification will be the only free lunch.
They say ignore the news though when it comes to technical analysis.
The trend of the vix is up.
I must confess I have a trading account which is minuscule as a % of my wealth. It is my play money in speculating. After I speculated half of it in energy and commodities, I decided my efforts were pointless and left it alone to finally come back to even, when the rest of my wealth invested in the overall market has done all of us well. I remember my net worth was half of what it is now 10 years ago, and all of my profits have been made investing from 2008-2013, when the chicken littles were quick to point out all of the flaws in the markets, ala SJG.
I had an advisor tell me to never risk more than 10% of your portfolio in individual stocks, and I've always played with less than that.
Anybody can beat almost any investment advisor by diversifying and letting it go and not touching it over a period of 10 years or longer. That's free advice no advisor is willing to let you know due to conflict in their business model. If they tell you it really is as simple as that there wouldn't be an investment advisory business for snake oil salesmen to work.
My own situation is much more complicated as we traded PMS several months back, but over a period of 27 years I very satisfied with the advice I have been given.
No necessarily. Could just mean more people are going to school, taking time off for whatever reason, retiring early.
Now I won't mention how much my SPY puts were up by comparison. That would be a kind of an apples to oranges comparison. :-)
My biggest victory has been being a miser, and hoarding cash instead of spending on frivolous things, like paying hookers for sex.
Living below my means and not worrying about my investments provides me the greatest security. Spider options. Call away....
SJG
SJG
Also I'm not sure so sure N Korea would listen to China either.
Sure, gambling can be fun. And sure lots of people get off on giving financial advice. But we need to be honest about what all of this is, bullshit.
SJG
What I also know is that you are getting a huge ego trip from giving out financial speculation advice, and that advice is worthless at best.
SJG
Your advice: telling people to say out of the markets b/c they are a bubble has been the bad advice.
Dougster, No, I have said to invest your money in your own affairs. These markets are a bubble because they could come down at any time. Investing in your own affairs, at least you have some degree of influence, and also you are getting other benefits in applying your abilities more fully.
SJG
Dougster = Fraudster
SJG
Good point about his comments today on currency!
But just thank about this one: Maybe his statement is just protective. Could it be that he is the Fraud for try to represent himself as some kind of revolutionary/save the world crusader on this board? When all he really wants is, as mikeya put it, a weird sex cult.
Fraudster, Fraudster, Fraudster.
SJG
Now I would say that you are the one zero predictive powers, but, I don't think that's exactly what you right. You actually do have some predictive powers, provide people understand that the way the market behaves is negatively correlated with what you say.
:-)
I do say that the current stock market is an unstainable bubble, but I also acknowledge that no one can predict what it will do tomorrow.
You Fraudster are giving out advice like you have some predictive ability. Fraudster!
SJG
You now I was actually think of maybe in three years or so, start my own quant/hedge fund with some of my buddies. Would that be following your advice? :-)
It's what people want to hear, so count me in as one of your sales men. Of course we would have to be vetted at a tuscl approved club. Mongering skills can translate to good business skills.
On the other, there are at least four of the bigger hedge funds that have consistently beat the S&P over a long period along with GS, so it's an interesting case of a false but beneficial belief.
Dougster, even if you have lived you adult life as a parasite. Undoubtedly you do have other abilities.
SJG
Anyway, if anyone in the world was "born to finance" it is me. I was pretty much set on that course even when I still in the craddle.
Wow! What an exciting day! We are basically at a mini-Cuban Missile Crisis moment. Wonder how the folks in Seoul will be sleeping this weekend?
I decided not to press those SPY puts into the weekend and went with a very small call position into the weekend: about 2.5% of my personal account. I think the most likely scenario (75% chance) is that there is no military conflict but they keep the pressure up on him throughout next week. If the worst case scenario plays our and Seoul does get hit, I think the least of anyone's worries will be how well they did in the market. So I'm now an atheist praying for the best.
A societal cancer.
SJG
SJG
Don't help Dougster. Best is to not even talk to him.
SJG
SJG
May their wings melt like was before a fire.
SJG
SJG
SJG
Other options are Quantopian and QuantConnect. QuantConnect if you are dealing with options. In that case you use Python or a .NET language.
SJG
SJG
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/weather/
SJG
A quick Google search.
https://www.engadget.com/2017/01/16/smar…
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As much as I fucking hate Trump, his crazy, reckless, ignorant approach to foreign policy might actually work here. The Chinese must be thinking "hey this guy Trump is crazy as fuck and might just make a preemptive attack on N. Korea." We better put some real economic pressure on Jong-un. So Trump might succeed where everyone else failed by virtue of being crazy and unpredictable.
The decisions they make are not alone in a void. They mostly have an administration of thousands that consult and try to govern from that, but since we live in a society that always wants to place fault on someone it runs uphill to the top. It's really not Trumps decision to do these things, it's just a puppet like nod "yes" or "no" whether action is taken or not.
Do you really think he knows anything more than you or me before being elected? Obviously not, but seriously I try not to even think about current issues because on the big picture it means little. If shit were to hit the fan we would have worse things to worry about than markets. We would be hoarding non perishable goods and ammunition and building our own bunkers, and that's if the shut came over to our country. If that happens currencies would be rendered useless along with the financial markets. Have a little faith because it goes a long ways.
I'm not leading any revolution, imaginary or otherwise. But I do believe in hard work and letting people develop their abilities, and in supporting people to believe in themselves and not succumb to herd pressure. And surprise surprise, to further these ends I am building a counter cultural group.
You are the antithesis of everything I believe in. May you suffer from untreatable ED!
SJG
SJG
Sammy Hagar Standing Hampton Album Cover
http://www.inthestudio.net/wp-content/up…
Gareth Knight
http://www.angelfire.com/az/garethknight…
Lots and lots of books, connected to Dion Fortune, his own tarot deck
http://www.angelfire.com/az/garethknight…
Magical Battle of Britain: Past and Present Perspectives
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AAM-lc8H…
Game theory dictates that it's generally good to have your opponents think you're crazy even if you're not.
Good, because you're a fag.
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You're probably right, but what works for @Juice in a poker match may not be the right choice for a superpower. I vastly prefer Obama's temperament and personality -- the way he would think things through carefully, rationally, and ask for other opinions. Trump's just the opposite; the kind of guy who Tweets out his emotions at 3AM is not the guy you want to give the nuclear codes. And the bombing so far in Syria and Afganistan just seems like so much dick-waving.
I doubt Trump is crazy enough to launch some preemptive attack on NK. If FatBoy continues to misbehave, Trump will probably move some battleships around or install more Troops in S. Korea. Hopefully there's some diplomatic solution involving sanctions. @25 usually has good political instincts, and I think he's right in saying that all paths toward a non-military solution go through China.
@Meat wrote "Do you really think he knows anything more than you or me before being elected?:
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The President should know more. Trump seems sort of lazy, ignorant, and vindictive. He inherited a lot of money and don't think he's ever had to sweat the details like the rest of us. IDK, maybe all the saber -rattling, dick-waving, and bombing will work out okay. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.
My initial feeling is this is not such a good system, but then again what does trump really know? This definitely is not in his wheel house of experience. I hope the generals have good judgement.
I'm glad I don't hold those puts into the week, but I suspect any market bounce will be short lived since there were other things bothering the market and Korea is likely not over yet. Nevertheless, just a few small hurdles to clear, IMO, and we could be back in a raging rally once again.
That sound like your master philosophy for everything Dougster.
SJG
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To my untrained eye, they looked just like painted Pringles cans. One of them blew up today on launch. How embarrassing is that!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CdtAFIl2…
Hmmmm very intelligent comment. I think i remember seeing it earlier, too. I wonder who else could be as smart enough to recognize this connection?
SJG
Mexico City, Paradise on Earth
http://doxyspotting.com/?p=136401
Georges Delerue: Platoon - Finale, I think it would be very difficult to learn to write music like this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=of_SZH1s…
full soundtrack, written by multiple parties
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KfxqZagH…
https://www.amazon.com/Modern-Tantra-Con…
Sane occultism, by Dion Fortune, copies of 1967 UK edition available.
When that happens it will be your big tip to buy even more. Today I was up over 1%, taking back any losses from last week, but then again I won't need this money for 10-40 years, assuming a stripper doesn't give me a terminal disease.
Not sure if the above link works for everyone, but it's new article from Economist on Fed unwinding of QE. Says pretty much what @Meat said earlier about doing it in a way that's predictable. An excerpt:
"There are different ways to shrink the balance-sheet. The most aggressive approach would be to sell bonds. This would please QE’s critics, who claim a large balance-sheet distorts financial markets. But nobody is certain what the effects of unwinding QE will be, and the Fed wants its policies to be predictable. So it is more likely to let the balance sheet gradually “run off”, by ceasing to reinvest, in new securities, the money it receives when its bonds mature. That happens constantly. For example, $425bn of its Treasuries come due in 2018 and another $350bn in 2019. The Fed could stop reinvesting some proportion of this money. Or it could pick the simplest option, which is to halt reinvestments altogether."
SJG
SJG
SJG
But if you listen to Fraudster and his ilk, you will come to believe that only gambling on things you have zero control over, like betting on tomorrow's weather, is all that matters.
SJG
French president debates are tomorrow. I doubt any short terms players are looking to be either very long or very short going into the weekend. I certainly think it's a 50% chance of anything bad, but (current) it's asymmetric risks to the downside. Likely I'll have some far out of the money puts which will probably go to zero, but if not should get at least a triple or quadruple out of them.
Its time to stop listening to Dougster.
SJG
That's what my prediction centers around, the normalizing of interest rates and an increase in the risk free rate. This will disincentive everyone who has been into the stock market. Plus, companies will not be able to refinance their debts any longer which allows them to buy back their stock. With more supply on the market from less buy backs the forces at play will drive down stock prices for a period of time.
Basically I'm saying is that this scenario is a normal market cycle that I think will happen in a year or two.
SJG
[Talk Gnosis] Martinism & Gnosticism
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XZz7z784…
[Talk Gnosis] Sex for Gnostics
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ENv6Fz_k…
San Jose guy, you do realize you e alienated yourself with that comment from the majority of people who live and breath, that have money invested in pensions, 401k's, IRAs, employer plans, brokerage accounts, college savings plans, and mutual funds along with a host of other vehicles.
Your own propaganda against investing in the markets is really showing your ignorance and stupidity about this topic. People who do invest in their own own abilities and talents andvare successful in themselves believe it or not also invest in markets, because it is the prudent thing to do. So you see you should invest in your own abilities and talents for which you have control, and in order to diversify you also need to invest in the markets because people's facilities will deteriorate over time, so they can't use their talents and abilities forever. Therefore successful long term investing in the markets will allow them to continue to be independent with wealth long after their health begins to decline. By not investing in the markets really says to that person that you have missed the opportunities to hedge against inflation. That's a sad position that you take SJG!
SJG
London Chaos Magic Girl
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-4YN9p6…
"Chaos Magik" started in North London in the 1970's, breaking with the tradition of Aleister Crowley and Kenneth Grant. So what is different about North London from the rest of London? What is North London like?
more Chatty Chaos Magik Girl
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vpr8Ovof…
"Casino Royale" FULL SOUNDTRACK ALBUM 1967 STEREO
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EhmZULZX…
That girl with the two silenced pistols is a great image.
bouffant,
https://www.pinterest.com/pin/1053420787…
https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-WjQBmYWaRPM/V…
SJG
SJG
if heads: stocks are overvalued! it's a bubble! stay out! (so bubble burst is not reflected in current prices)
if tails: everything is already perfectly reflected in current prices!
But I guess he is such a nut job that since he doesn't notice the contradiction he thinks nobody else will either.
SJG = complete psycho
https://www.tuscl.net/postread.php?PID=4…
SJG
8" Platform Heels
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qktif7jy…
9" Platform Heels
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VX08KmK1…
Elsa in 10 inch Pleaser Beyond Heels Stockings 12 GAGE Clothing
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7MhIhVj…
( I plan to have a stage and a pole, and a high ceiling, in my own home. For photo sessions. I'll supply every girl with extreme heels, stockings, and other naughty things. )
There is no profit in prognostication. Nobody is clairvoyant.
Managed accounts I left untouched and didn't hedge. Haven't touched them for months really, except some rotation of PM into IWM, which appears to have been well timed.
clairvoyance is not required...
https://www.tuscl.net/postread.php?PID=4…
SJG