Rick's Continues to Piss Away Shareholder Value

I agree it's a shitty stock with shitty management who care more about using the company for personal enjoyment than shareholder value. There was a time in my life I assumed "vice" stocks were fundamentally undervalued and owned RICK, and I lost a bit of my fun money portfolio in the process (while making enough back on cigarettes to make up for it; one of the few vice stocks that does legitimately make money).

Actually part of the problem is that they wete closely tied to the domestic energy boom. The Texas oil boom in particular. I changed my mind on this stock after the weakness it was showing back in June, particularly after it couldn't get going after a homerun quarter and insider's were selling:

tuscl.net

Besides the crash in oil it also looks like the lawsuit was enough to send it below the $10 level I wondered if they were doing buybacks at.

No idea where they will start doing buybacks again or how much time that will buy them.

It's too bad that there is more to the name now then being an energy play, since I think those stocks are getting ready to bounce soon, and I'll be picking up some of the purer energy names in the morning.

And now they poo poo'ed the one recent deal that actually seemed to make sense, Club O. They were getting the club for a relative song and with very advantageous financing terms. I guess they didn't have enough capital to fund both the club purchase and their new expansion into the knock-off energy drink marketplace.

What is disturbing from all of the recent moves that they have made is their continued efforts to try to move away from their core business. Even the name change seems designed to make them look like something other than an adult entertainment company. I am starting to believe that they lack confidence in strip clubs as a long-term, sustainable business model.

Not that interesting a stock anymore. Better and safer returns elsewhere now I think. I think the effects of their legal loss still need to flush out and the Texas oil market needs to stabilize. Might be able to get it in the $8's again.

I don't think that oil prices are going to seriously hurt employment in Texas. Texas diversified its economy well beyond energy decades ago and oil/nat gas extraction constitutes less than 10% of the labor force in that state. Further, most of that oil extraction is being done at break-even points well below the current price per barrel on world markets.

And RICK has been a dogshit stock forever. Every so often, they manage to convince the public that they are doing something that might actually make sense and add value, but it always crashes back down to earth eventually. Only these knuckleheads can take a business model so inherently profitable and continue to fuck it up so badly.

I'm with you on many things today, RickyBoy! I think the drop in oil prices is almost over and the domestic oil industry will be just fine. I bought about $100k in oil stocks for myself this morning betting on it. Could I be a week or month early? Maybe, but when the media is screaming $40 oil, I feel confident we are near the end. The Iranian oil minister even made some comments that these moves by OPEC are not going to put the U.S. sources out of business. Think he called it wishful thinking. Sounds about right to me!

LOL. Remember a year ago when several told Dugly it was a shit stock? Yet he insisted over and over what a genius play it was?

I believe there was even the prediction of doubling or tripling in value? Good thing nobody took that advice.

Jester, I think that this is the quote that you are looking for. The stock was trading at around $11.50 at that time. He posted it in response to my assertion that the stock had limited realistic upside potential, yet much downside risk.

"As for your "limited upside" versus huge risk. Think you got it backwards. The debt situation and other troubles have been known forever, it was going to breakdown would have done so already. As for how big, the upside is. Well, I have a number in mind which is much higher than the $15 which the article I linked gave as a conservative target. I doubt it will happen in one year, might take three, but I think this thing can easily double. So I think maybe $1 downside risk from here, since there are buyers eager to get in on dips, and the board is authorized to buyback stock to hold it up, and more another $11 upside. Maybe if there was a totally devastating headline back into the mid-$8's at which point I would still be up overall, but $3 risk versus $11 potential reward... I like it!"

Since that exchange, the stock peaked at a little over $12 in late October and closed today at $9.70. Little upside, big downside anyone? ;)

Oops, I meant to make it clear that the quote in question was posted on January 1, 2014, over 11 months ago.

I don't know, man, I did say a devastating headline could drop it into the mid $8s and we got two: loss of the lawsuit, and the crash in the price of oil. Was I prepared? Did I warn when it was time to get out?Absolutely! Just look at the link above where the my last word was to go short. Anyone who followed what I said on this one would have got about a 45% gain on this one.

The other side never had the guts to make a prediction beyond do nothing. When I asked if they would short they said "no". Even when I let them pick any stock in the market against one they were too scared to name one. So my 45% performance against their zilch. I think I definitely get an A on this one.

Better yet I also prove that I'm more than happy to admit when I'm wrong and reverse positions. Facts change, my opinion changes. Never any danger if you follow that rule and don't let your ego get in the war.

Normally I don't mess with stocks this illiquid but analyzing this one indicates that they might actual give very long lead times and very clear signals before their moves. This ticker gave a very clear and long signal before it busted out of the mid $8s and a very clear and long signal on the way down.

No indications yet of what it will do after it stabilizes after this fall or where that stabilization will be. My guess is the mid $8s, but we'll just have to wait and see when the time comes.

RickyBoy should also remember he has been saying this stock would crater since it was in the mid $8's, which it has yet to drop below. So yeah he did predicted a drop but is kinda like the guy who kept saying S&P will drop since it was at 1300, finally getting a drop in his direction and saying he was right all along, I'm going to wait until it gets under mid $8s (if ever) before I start praising the accuracy of his predictions on this one. And mid$8s would be a reasonable drop in market cap to account for the loss of the lawsuit plus account for over correction which the markets like to do.

I wonder if RickyBoy still thinks it will drop below $8 or has changed his mind yet?

RickyBoy: "As I predicted some months back"

How come you only mention your prediction when the price was around $10.50 and not your first prediction when it was at $8.50? LOL!

So Dugly is confidant RICK is going to have a great year, tell's several of us how wrong we are for predicting it won't. Shuts up about it for 6 months, in which is does nothing, then suddenly reverses the original prediction but is still trying to claim we were wrong?

Yep, sounds like Dugly.

RickyBoy??? Why so quiet now? Think it's going under $8? A good short here? Any opinions???

Lol!

I'm not really sure what else you want me to say Dougster. Your words are there in black and white. All the rest of your tapdancing is just a weak attempt at revisionist history. ;)

My opinion is the same as it ever was. It was a bad idea at 8.50, a worse idea at 10 and a downright atrocious idea at anything north of 11. And my opinions as to why that is remains the same: horrible financials and even worse ongoing management decisions.

Funny in your revisionist history it's now merely a"bad" buy at $8.5 but not "atrocious" until $11. Looks like you have changed your mind since you first said it would crater from $8.5 in a month few month. Here we are a year and a half later though, and it's higher...

rickdugan: "As I predicted some months back, those who bought this dogshit stock north of $10, and continued to hold it, are no doubt sorry that they did. "

Well it's up 14% since RickyBoy said this, north of $10 at $10.94 and moving up. Meanwhile the S&P is only up 2%.

RickyBoy did a very good job of speaking up only after it had already pretty much bottomed, as has been his track record on this ticker. The fact that he finally found the cojones to say something is one of the reasons I decided to flip from short back to long a couple of weeks after he (wrongly) got excited that further "collapse" was coming (really there only a short term 15% dip, which has now bee erased):

tuscl.net

But hey, I'm sure any day now we'll all wake up and they will have to declare bankruptcy. Right, RickyBoy?

Lol!

Has it doubled in value yet like Dugly predicted?

"Buy it! No sell it! Buy it again!"

Really great call, RickyBoy. Really great call.

RICK up today when 90% of the rest of the board red. What could it mean?

Lol!

Dougster, i have to say that your unbridled disdain for rick is admirable. If you are this persistant about him i can only imagine the tenaciousness you have for important matters.

Well if there's one thing I can't stand it's dipshit assclowns and RickyBoy fits that bill.

Really good stock analysis, RickyBoy. Really good analysis.

Anyone catch the close in stock ticker RICK today? Really good analysis, RickyBoy. Really good analysis.

Lol!

Really good analysis, JamesSTD. Really good analysis.

Lol!

Looks like another good quarter for stock ticker RICK:

prnewswire.com

I'd take profits on any pop in the stock price today though. It looks like the markets want to sell into the Fed rate hike which I think we get next month. A 20% gain over a few months ain't too bad though.

(The $1.5 million in buybacks is interesting.)

Out!

...for now

Really good analysis RickyBoy and JamesSTD. Really good analysis.