Stock Ticker RICK Really Flying this Morning
Up +13% this morning as I write this on an earnings beat and much better than expected guidance.
But what the hell is going on here? We know what incredible financial acumen RickyBoyDugan and txtittyfuck possess, and they both said this stock was a terrible buy in the mid $8's. Now it is up nearly 50% since that point just a few months.
Who on earth could have guessed that it would have moved like it did despite what all the nay-sayers said. Well, me that's who! And this despite the two "financial experts" I named above saying it was a garbage stock all the way up and I was an idiot for buying it.
Now I know I haven't been very nice to RickyBoy and tittyfuck in the past, but, as some token niceness to them on my part, I even gave this one to them on a silver platter and told them to get in just ahead of earnings:
https://www.tuscl.net/postread.php?PID=2…
I wonder if RickyBoy and tittyfuck will be willing to admit they are wrong now? With egos as titanic as theirs? Doubt it! My bet is they just dig themselves deeper and propose an even more elaborate conspiracy theory to explain the rally. Occam's razor boys. Occam's razor. If a stock is this strong for this long, maybe it's because the market realized it was undervalued despite what your kindergarten thinking told you?
But what the hell is going on here? We know what incredible financial acumen RickyBoyDugan and txtittyfuck possess, and they both said this stock was a terrible buy in the mid $8's. Now it is up nearly 50% since that point just a few months.
Who on earth could have guessed that it would have moved like it did despite what all the nay-sayers said. Well, me that's who! And this despite the two "financial experts" I named above saying it was a garbage stock all the way up and I was an idiot for buying it.
Now I know I haven't been very nice to RickyBoy and tittyfuck in the past, but, as some token niceness to them on my part, I even gave this one to them on a silver platter and told them to get in just ahead of earnings:
https://www.tuscl.net/postread.php?PID=2…
I wonder if RickyBoy and tittyfuck will be willing to admit they are wrong now? With egos as titanic as theirs? Doubt it! My bet is they just dig themselves deeper and propose an even more elaborate conspiracy theory to explain the rally. Occam's razor boys. Occam's razor. If a stock is this strong for this long, maybe it's because the market realized it was undervalued despite what your kindergarten thinking told you?
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24 comments
But feel free to put your retirement fund in it if you want. ;)
I knew that when a guy with mediocre (being polite I really mean poor) ability to "analyze" these things finally felt confident enough to speak up about how bad it was again, that we were near a bottom and it was time for me to buy again. (See thread above.) And that's exactly how it worked out.
RickyBoy: "Nothing has changed"
Well price is about 40% hire since you first said how terrible it was about 6 months ago. Don't worry though, RickyBoy, I'm sure it's just some temporary conspiracy and the whole house of cards will come crashing down soon enough. :-)
The debt investors aren't fooled. There are no magic pills coming for this company; no debt reorganizations; no secondary offering; no off balance sheet transactions; etc., etc. Every time that they need a few more million to keep things running they are going to take an elephant dick up their collective ass to get it.
Oh, and oohhh, another $7mm in market cap swapped hands today. Oh yeah, that stock is a big time trader's dream. LOL.
Time will tell, but a lot has to go right in order for them earn their way out of this debt mess. And since I firmly believe that the chain's management is far more concerned with sucking whatever they can into their own pockets and in glory seeking than they are in running a responsible company, I think that they will end up screwing it up even if all else goes their way.
How much for that doggie in the window? Ruff ruff!
Too funny!
And no problem means I can make funny of your shit "analysis" for a long time to come.
But let's consider your point. Surely, you would agree that txtittyfan is a serious stock trader, no? Just a week or so ago txtittyfuck was bragging about he has been holding the much better stock HAL all that time. I doubt he owns any shares give that he can't muster up a trade of more than $3,000 and doesn't have the cajones when he does to hold it more than a few hours. But let's suppose his fantasy was real. How has HAL compared to RICK during the time? HAL is up 4% - not even keeping up with the S&P, while RICK is up close to 40%. Hmmmm... But I guess, in this fantasy world of his, he can go to the bank and tell them "well I may have only made 4%, but it was on a serious stock, not some novelty holding, so I feel much better than if I had made 40% on what RickyBoy calls a dog". Yeah, great reasoning.
Amazing how it can be so bad, but rise so much, on volume, for so long.
Just let us know, once again, the next time you think the sky is falling on this one. Seems to present good buying opportunities. :-)
(Sometime you also ought to get somebody who knows something (hint - not txtittyfuck) to tell you were a company growing at 20% with 1.7 EPS is heading for.)
:-)
But you do your thing there Warren Buffet. ;)
Ruff ruff baby!
How about this RickyBoy. Willing to stick your neck out? How about you tell me a stock that you think will do better by this time next year? Now, I'm kind of guessing you will say "anything", so how about this? I'll put you down along with txtittyfan as saying HAL does better. You good with that? :-)
RickyBoy: "Ruff ruff baby! "
Man, I love your allusions to Gordon Gekko. Let me guess. A childhood hero of yours? Someone who you thought you would become. Before your disastrous first marriage, and then realization of your employment issues (inability to work in a standard environment). After that you just became Leisure RickyBoy. Guy who spent ten years figuring out how to pay hookers, and, at the end published The System considering it a work Nobel Prize worthy. Fell a bit short of becoming Gordon Gekko didn't you, poor little RickyBoy? :-)
Goobers like Fraudster are out there getting hot and bothered over modest improvements while serious people, i.e. lenders, will no doubt continue to bend this company over the table, as they should.
Ruff ruff!
A couple of question for you, RickyBoy.
a) Given that it "smells like a sewer at 12" does that mean you will be shorting it? If so let us know (before the fact too, don't try and pull a tittyfan). I want it on the record.
b) Are up for my challenge here? Come back a year later and compare the performance of this stock against HAL (which tittyfan likes) to see which does better. Or if you don't like HAL, put up a choice of your own to compare against?
As for "long term" holding. I actually looked at this a just trading stock until the last blowout earnings report and reading the transcript for the conference. Now I think it's something that should be fine for at least six months, maybe even a year. (Thing that worries me most is if the entire market can keep going at the current blistering pace another year.) I won't have offered the year comparison before yesterday, but there it is. You up for it? :-)
They are still choked with debt and they are being forced to borrow additional money at near distressed debt rates and on onerous terms. The only option they have is to earn there way out, but this gives them little margin for error.
As a long-term holding, this thing sucks. Lenders know it and so do the more serious equity investors, else there would be another 5% holder besides Dimensional.
But have fun there tiger.
@Dougster: You are approaching RICK as a trading vehicle - a perfectly valid approach.
@rickdugan: You are approaching RICK as an investment - also a perfectly valid approach.
IMO, RICK is a useless piece of paper to be used as an investment. However, RICK is a perfect piece of paper to trade - small float, relatively low volume, big swings in price; exactly what a nimble trader can exploit profitably. Heavy emphasis on nimble.
This does not mean that HAL is ineligible as a trading or investment vehicle.
The stock market features many companies that are lousy companies but are lovely investments. I could name three such companies whose shares have been in my retirement account for years performing most sweetly for me.
RICK definitely won't make the buy and hold, don't monitor list. I'm sure it's okay for 6 months now, probably a year, but my main concern would be the lawsuit hanging over their head. Still, my confidence in the long term prospects are much higher after the last conference call than ever before. Maybe Eric has decided now is the time to get serious about his dreams of building an empire and he is going to get it together finally? This could very well be the year market gives him that chance.
The most interesting I noted in the earnings transcript was how he mentioned employment and business picking up amongst their customers in Texas along with the fact many people are moving into the state. This suggests some other areas of the market, currently written off, that there might be a chance to pick up before a stampede. (And finding overlooked sectors is not easy these days.)
As for HAL, it actually had a nice uptrend until recently and I thought tittyfan might be onto to something. But then, I realized that it was tittyfan so more likely the opposite given his track record. :-)
I feel the price of oil will fall next year, but oil services is way too specialized a space for me to have a feeling of HAL will fair in all of it. I'll stick with more straightforward stuff like currencies unless I had alot of time to learn something about the space.
One thing, I'm sure of, however, is that if both HAL and RICK go up next year, RICK will go up more. RICK is a high beta name, so if does finish the year up, it should finish up more than any standard, safe pick. You'd have to look at something super speculative if you were in stock picking contest mode. It will move big one way or the other, and that way is certainly looking like up now. I'm comfortable having about 8-10% of my investment capital in it medium term but won't go beyond that, and I would definitely look at it every day.
I love how RickyBoy was so quick to throw txtittyfan under the bus on this one to try and weasel away from things he said in the past. By saying market timing is for fools he calls his buddy txittyfan a fool since txtittyfan does day trade (albeit very poorly). Not too surprising since I'm the past RickyBoy said only idiots try and time the market. Then when I pointed out he was calling txtittyfan an idiot he oh, oh I only meant trying to time the currency markets, equities is fine... So funny how RickyBoy can't keep his story straight especially when you put a bit of heat on him and compare to things he said before.
Looks like Etrade is starting to believe more in RICK. Margin requirements lowered from 50% to 40%.