Serious question—why are prediction markets showing Massie the underdog?

Actually I just noticed the chart history on this app thingy and Massie was favored (and not in a ridiculous way, more like 50 something cents vs 50 something cents) until Saturday night last week. Those have been the insider trading peak hours on crypto and futures, so I can definitely see the peak hours. And currently the spread now has dropped to about 1 cent for Massie.

Where’s my boy dustyj at? I’m joining team blue.

Well according to RCP it's been called for Gallrein. Trump's endorsement still carries massive weight.

Sigh. I know that libertarian-leaning individuals tend to not hold onto power very well. It was pretty cool that one individual has stuck around. But alas, he lost because he wanted less government spending on things like the Iran War and the OBBA shopping spree and pushed the Epstein Files release.

I wonder when Ghislaine will get her pardon.

My guess is the small hats rigged it through whatever means possible as theyve wanted him out for years

I’ve been getting into prediction markets. Trying to follow the “whales” - guys that are betting over $100k that have a good win percentage. So far mixed results but keep getting closer.

When I saw him on there he was a massive underdog - late in the race.

To answer your question the wrath of Trump is real and nobody wants to go against him.

Spice, there are two parts of a potential answer to your question. First, the lines change as bets are placed. E.g, the site may start with 50/50 odds but as more money bets against Massie, the book adjusts the odds to get more money bet on Massie so they’ll have funds to offset their payouts. So the odds in the last day or two reflected polling, press, etc. that were predicting Massie would lose.

Secondly, the founders of both Malabo and polymarket have brazenly said they view insider trading as a feature, not a bug. Essentially, their point is that if insiders are betting, it means the odds are adjusting based on better info. While factually true, this is also problematic. It disadvantages the non-insiders but also feels pretty disgusting since they are taking bets on things like when we’ll invade Iran, topple Venezuela, etc.

I think they’ve walked some of those comments back given some recent press and because one of them is banned from the US because the prediction market is not a regulated market.

Shai, you ninja’ed me. And how autocorrect took kalshi and made it ‘Malabo’ is weird.

I saw Massie interview on Tucker a week or so ago. Seemed like a compelling candidate. Then PBD did a brief discussion after the vote. Basically said that Massie made too many enemies.

It would be interesting to see the turnout in that primary. If it was huge or just a tiny number.