Serious question—why are prediction markets showing Massie the underdog?

Actually I just noticed the chart history on this app thingy and Massie was favored (and not in a ridiculous way, more like 50 something cents vs 50 something cents) until Saturday night last week. Those have been the insider trading peak hours on crypto and futures, so I can definitely see the peak hours. And currently the spread now has dropped to about 1 cent for Massie.

Where’s my boy dustyj at? I’m joining team blue.

Well according to RCP it's been called for Gallrein. Trump's endorsement still carries massive weight.

Sigh. I know that libertarian-leaning individuals tend to not hold onto power very well. It was pretty cool that one individual has stuck around. But alas, he lost because he wanted less government spending on things like the Iran War and the OBBA shopping spree and pushed the Epstein Files release.

I wonder when Ghislaine will get her pardon.

My guess is the small hats rigged it through whatever means possible as theyve wanted him out for years

I’ve been getting into prediction markets. Trying to follow the “whales” - guys that are betting over $100k that have a good win percentage. So far mixed results but keep getting closer.

When I saw him on there he was a massive underdog - late in the race.

To answer your question the wrath of Trump is real and nobody wants to go against him.

Spice, there are two parts of a potential answer to your question. First, the lines change as bets are placed. E.g, the site may start with 50/50 odds but as more money bets against Massie, the book adjusts the odds to get more money bet on Massie so they’ll have funds to offset their payouts. So the odds in the last day or two reflected polling, press, etc. that were predicting Massie would lose.

Secondly, the founders of both Malabo and polymarket have brazenly said they view insider trading as a feature, not a bug. Essentially, their point is that if insiders are betting, it means the odds are adjusting based on better info. While factually true, this is also problematic. It disadvantages the non-insiders but also feels pretty disgusting since they are taking bets on things like when we’ll invade Iran, topple Venezuela, etc.

I think they’ve walked some of those comments back given some recent press and because one of them is banned from the US because the prediction market is not a regulated market.

Shai, you ninja’ed me. And how autocorrect took kalshi and made it ‘Malabo’ is weird.

I saw Massie interview on Tucker a week or so ago. Seemed like a compelling candidate. Then PBD did a brief discussion after the vote. Basically said that Massie made too many enemies.

It would be interesting to see the turnout in that primary. If it was huge or just a tiny number.

Opponents of Massie poured enough money into the race to make it the most expensive primary election in US history. This money financed dishonest attack ads and other influence campaigns. Which, like it or not, are very effective, particularly at the scale that the money made possible.
Wealthy Trumpers don't like it that Massie opposes the impunity of Epstein's wealthy co-conspirators. Massie did what legislators in a pluralistic democracy are supposed to do. He worked with socialist legislators on the Epstein issue, even though he opposes their socialism. The influence campaigns used this to falsely claim that Massie had pro-socialist leanings.
Pro-Netanyahu PACs also have lots of money. They don't like it that Massie asserts that the war against Iran is not consistent with America First. Which makes sense, because, while Iran wants to destroy Israel, it apparently only wants the US to disengage from the Middle East. For MAGA evangelicals, Israel is a special case. Because their preachers regularly points out to them that Genesis says The Lord will bless those who bless the descendants of Abraham, and curse those who curse them. Ignoring the fact that the Arab claim to descend from Abraham through Ishmael is as legit as the Jewish claim to descend from Abraham through Issac.
It seems like most analysts are saying many who voted for Massie in previous Republican primaries either didn't vote or voted in the Democrat primary.

Thomas Massie won the majority of voters under 55. It was the Fox News watching elderly Boomers coming out in large numbers that got Gallrein the win. Trump showed what his priorities are by working to get Massie out of Congress: continued efforts to bury the Epstein story, high levels of government spending and a pro-Israel foreign policy. Once all the Boomers pass away, the US will abandon our pro-Israel foreign policy because younger voters do not support that.

Great comments in this thread, both about the election and the prediction markets. I forgot about the age differences in sentiment, and primaries skew older and those who will nod their head to anything they are told to do. I’ll have to look at that one podcast mentioned.

Of course money helps however it doesn't always buy a win. Rockefeller started this over 130 years ago giving $250K ($10M in 2026 Dollars) to help get McKinley elected. That was a huge deal back then.

Bass (spent about $1.5M with $2M+ on hand) with a good chance of winning just because she is a Dem, and LA/CA voters are Useful Idiot Voters.

Pratt (spent about $250K with about $300K left) is giving her a good run by exposing why she is just a Marxist/DNC/Bolshevik Tool.

LA residents have zero to lose by electing Pratt as he has a Marxist City Council to deal with. A win for Pratt would be very intriguing. Re-electing Bass will just make LA more expensive and less livable. At least Meth-Heads will get new teeth to rot over and over.

In the past, pro-Democrat money has supported MAGA candidates in Republican primaries, as they are easier to beat in the general. Haven't seen reports this happened in this race. But dark money enabled by Citizen's United means it could happen in secret.

Dem PACs wouldn't have poured money in favor of the more MAGA candidate in Massie's race, because that district would never go blue in the general election.

How puckered up and tight do you think mogul’s cloaca is? From a distance of say….anonymous internet bullshit board, it looks simply “closed.” Just like his mind.

^ So vote for Bass, I don't care as I don't live there. As LA gets worse let's see how far people can handle the pain. Your lack of rational thought is amazing. Enjoy your new teeth.

I watched Pratt on Rogans podcast. Seemed like a reasonable dude. He just might win. And the commercials are hilarious. Batman one is really well done.

@jaybud999 mogul is incredibly paranoid about anything. He believes Moslems want to impose sharia law and force people to convert or die, immigrants come here to kill or drug deal or do gang stuff, dems are all marxist commies, he has said he is very fearful to tell any dancer or even anyone else which hotel he is staying at for “security concerns”, and he just made a thread claiming he finds it “very suspicious” if multiple reviews for the same club are posted soon after each other.

@nicespice: How much are you making with the prediction markets!??

So far, negative ten dollars 😂

Gotta at least suspect that Trump delayed bending over for Iran, to keep the AIPAC money in play against Massie: apnews.com .

I wonder how many free dances nicespice would give Massie to console him for his loss.

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