I watched most of today’s presentation. What struck me most was how well Tesla is using its first mover advantage. They are years ahead of everyone in terms of product design and manufacturing efficiency. They have a huge profit margin and are using that cash flow to increase production while lowering their cost. Unless they make a huge misstep, no one will catch them. They plan to increase production from 2 million units to 20 million within a few years. That won’t leave any room for competitors.
For decades we just had "the big 3" w.r.t. American automotive manufacturing - to have a little company like Tesla be able to come in and survive and eventually be where they are now is pretty-remarkable - one would assume others tried before and failed, and many in the past probably saw it as impossible and didn't even try - even other EV startups like Rivian and Lucid are having a rough-go-of-it.
Elon Musk may not only be the smartest guy in the room but likely in the world.
I’ve been a Tesla skeptic too, mostly because of the need for rare earth elements, lack of infrastructure, and limits on solar. But, they did a pretty good job of explaining how to address all this. Once production reaches a certain level, electric cars will be cheaper to build and operate than ICE vehicles. The power train is much simpler. And, economies of scale will make Tesla untouchable.
In the early days, Tesla was essentially making cars manually. No automation. At that point, they were a joke.
They’ve made the transition to a highly automated manufacturing process where scale matters. They’ve also managed their supply chain. And, as Toyota did with ICE vehicles, they’ve used design simplification and constant improvement to lower cost while improving quality. This is not the same company it was three years ago.
It’s a game changer largely because government is forcing the change through subsidies and regulations. Tax credits for EVs. Bans on drilling raising gas prices. Severe emissions limits adding thousands to the cost of an ICE vehicle.
The change is coming because government says it will.
In the presentation, Elon said the real game changer will be autonomous driving. When that happens, there will be less need for privately owned vehicles, especially in urban areas. More people will use Uber-style services. The economics of transportation will be turned on it’s head.
Personally, I think it will 20-30 years before autonomous driving is technically possible. But, it will happen.
Tesla is only as good as its ability to stay ahead of others with battery technology and self-driving functions. Every major auto manufacturer and a mountain of tech startups are all pouring many billions each year in developing new innovations in these areas. The second that a competitor develops a battery with materially better range or a vastly improved self-driving system, Tesla is fucked unless they can acquire it through a buyout or partnership.
^ we all would, but the technology isn’t ready yet it appears to be several years away at this point, then it’s going to need become easier to use, and costs will need to come down, best guess would 20-25 years yet.
“I see Mrk advocating for us to lose all of our liberties for the sake of ,,,,,,, exactly what?”
Nope, I’m just telling you we’ve already lost our liberty, and describing who will benefit. The game is rigged and Elon figured out how to win. As a consumer, we can either take advantage of the rules, or not.
In a fair world, the government wouldn’t put its thumb on the scales and pick winners. But, if the government offers to sell us quality steak at $.98/pound, what choice do we have ?
Some of you people are the type of Americans that have a weakness for “successful/wealthy” Con-Artists/criminals
Elon Musk is just the latest and grates con-artist false prophets in America, he just has a Public Relations team that manufactures fans and admirers for him.
This is so obvious that people find it hard to believe, but it is the UNDENIABLE reality.
If Musk is nothing but a con man, could someone explain how Space X is revolutionizing the space industry and running rings around everyone, including NASA ?
I can’t wait til they go back in the day and make a Fred Flinstone car, economical and ecological. I could just get in and peddle my feet on the ground with the help of my friend Barney as we drive off to the salt mines. Very sustainable….
Space X technological success is due to all of the Spacex engineers and other employees who are willing to work crazy hours at lower-than-average pay because they are truly inspired by what they’re doing.
Elon Musk is just a conman conning them on workin an something that he is taking undeserved credit for, like most con-man/businessman in the capitalist system.
“It is the sufferings of the many which pay for the luxuries of the few.”
~ Greta Tintin Eleonora Ernman Thunberg ~ Born: 3rd January 2003 Stockholm, Sweden ~ Occupation: Student, environmental activist
Since Henry Ford invented the assembly line, all cars have been assembled in the same way. A single line where assembly takes place one piece at a time. Tesla will now begin using a modular line where 4 or 5 lines converge for final assembly of modular pieces. This will allow for much faster assembly, with many workers simultaneously building the car. It will require half the floor space. And, it will make it easier to automate tasks.
This is truly revolutionary in the world of industrial engineering.
The game is rigged, and Elon figured it out? Lmao, Elon the hero, how fucked up is that. He's a smoother version of dipshit Donald Trump. Mark, there is a famous P.T. Barnum quote and he meant it specifically for people who post the garbage you have posted. Look it up and remember: he said it, not me.
Elons arrogance will sink him. Without subsidies he would not have made it but he keeps poking to government in the eye with his arrogance. The day the government realizes that without gas to tax they will not be able to maintain the roads that Tesla kinda depends on (and has been using for free); they will find a way to tax instead of subsidize EVs. Then the field gets more level.
The newest study on self-driving cars show society is reacting negatively to them, the more accidents they're in and support for them has dropped substantially. Why on fucking earth do we need such bullshit? Seriously. Explain why.
I think they've already blown their lead. Car buyers tend to have brand/model loyalty (people who buy Ford tend to buy Fords forever, etc) and while a lot of Tesla buyers were obviously excited about their purchase before they got the cars, the customer satisfaction isn't what it needs to be to have a sustained margin over other carmakers. Also, despite Musk talking about the cybertruck for a *decade*, literally since 2013, nobody has one yet. I have a couple of neighbors with Rivian trucks and they love them.
"... The newest study on self-driving cars show society is reacting negatively to them, the more accidents they're in and support for them has dropped substantially. Why on fucking earth do we need such bullshit ..."
Well - if the technology comes through it would be a help to the diabled and elderly who o/w may not be able to get around on their own; or safely-so - one would assume it could also significantly lower DUIs, as well as distracted drivers which I believe is the #1 reason for accidents - it would also eliminate the need for so many cars which are often parked idle for most hours of the day (e.g. while one is at work, or overnight; etc) - a lot of young people today seem to prefer not to own cars; self-driving-cars would likely allow for a flleet of inexpensive robo-taxis which many would prefer over owning and maintaining a car - of course this is all predicated on the tech working how it's intended.
===> "The newest study on self-driving cars show society is reacting negatively to them, the more accidents they're in and support for them has dropped substantially."
I suspect that this is more because most people understand that these cars are being allowed on the road prematurely, before the tech is there to make them truly reliable. Once the tech catches up and they are truly Level 5 autonomous, I suspect that most people will be singing a different tune. Imagine being able to work on your computer or play video games on your way to your destination, get drunk and get home safely, sleep in your car overnight while it drives you to your vacation destination, etc., etc.
But with that said, the tech is so damned far behind that I doubt that I will see it in my lifetime. Also imagine how much more infrastructure we would need if almost everyone preferred driving over mass transit, planes and trains for short and intermediate distance trips.
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Tesla started outselling Mercedes, BMW and Audi years ago in the USA.
Here's the stats for 2022:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/2643…
Elon Musk may not only be the smartest guy in the room but likely in the world.
They’ve made the transition to a highly automated manufacturing process where scale matters. They’ve also managed their supply chain. And, as Toyota did with ICE vehicles, they’ve used design simplification and constant improvement to lower cost while improving quality. This is not the same company it was three years ago.
The change is coming because government says it will.
Personally, I think it will 20-30 years before autonomous driving is technically possible. But, it will happen.
If I could hop in a vehicle, sleep or do work, watch a movie and arrive to my destination 6 hours later without any effort I’d fly a lot less.
Nope, I’m just telling you we’ve already lost our liberty, and describing who will benefit. The game is rigged and Elon figured out how to win. As a consumer, we can either take advantage of the rules, or not.
In a fair world, the government wouldn’t put its thumb on the scales and pick winners. But, if the government offers to sell us quality steak at $.98/pound, what choice do we have ?
I will play along and common your discussion.
“Elon Musk has a gift for capturing people’s imaginations with grandiose futuristic promises. Unfortunately, he happens to be a total fraud.
Increasingly, more and more people are recognizing Musk as a scam artist and a guy who’s been sanctioned for securities fraud several times.”
https://www.tme.net/blog/musk-fraud/?amp
Some of you people are the type of Americans that have a weakness for “successful/wealthy” Con-Artists/criminals
Elon Musk is just the latest and grates con-artist false prophets in America, he just has a Public Relations team that manufactures fans and admirers for him.
This is so obvious that people find it hard to believe, but it is the UNDENIABLE reality.
:D
Bacon!!
Space X technological success is due to all of the Spacex engineers and other employees who are willing to work crazy hours at lower-than-average pay because they are truly inspired by what they’re doing.
Elon Musk is just a conman conning them on workin an something that he is taking undeserved credit for, like most con-man/businessman in the capitalist system.
“It is the sufferings of the many which pay for the luxuries of the few.”
~ Greta Tintin Eleonora Ernman Thunberg
~ Born: 3rd January 2003 Stockholm, Sweden
~ Occupation: Student, environmental activist
This is truly revolutionary in the world of industrial engineering.
The day the government realizes that without gas to tax they will not be able to maintain the roads that Tesla kinda depends on (and has been using for free); they will find a way to tax instead of subsidize EVs.
Then the field gets more level.
They deserve it
Well - if the technology comes through it would be a help to the diabled and elderly who o/w may not be able to get around on their own; or safely-so - one would assume it could also significantly lower DUIs, as well as distracted drivers which I believe is the #1 reason for accidents - it would also eliminate the need for so many cars which are often parked idle for most hours of the day (e.g. while one is at work, or overnight; etc) - a lot of young people today seem to prefer not to own cars; self-driving-cars would likely allow for a flleet of inexpensive robo-taxis which many would prefer over owning and maintaining a car - of course this is all predicated on the tech working how it's intended.
I suspect that this is more because most people understand that these cars are being allowed on the road prematurely, before the tech is there to make them truly reliable. Once the tech catches up and they are truly Level 5 autonomous, I suspect that most people will be singing a different tune. Imagine being able to work on your computer or play video games on your way to your destination, get drunk and get home safely, sleep in your car overnight while it drives you to your vacation destination, etc., etc.
But with that said, the tech is so damned far behind that I doubt that I will see it in my lifetime. Also imagine how much more infrastructure we would need if almost everyone preferred driving over mass transit, planes and trains for short and intermediate distance trips.