It's the first Saturday in May and it's time for the Kentucky Derby. Who do you like? For extra credit say why. It looks like an evenly matched field if you look at the odds board, but history says that's usually not because everybody is really good, but because everybody is really average. I faced this scenario in the breeder cup classic many years back and went longshot hunting. Thank you, Volponi, for your 6-length victory at 42-1. You were my biggest bet of the day, both buying and cashing. So, with that in mind and disliking boring 3-1 favorites we will pick Charge it!!! Son of Tapit (outrageous success as a stallion), but very, very green. He went sideways in the stretch in the Florida derby and never changed leads. He still finished second and is eligible to improve in a longer race. He breaks well (great in a 20-horse field) and has stamina on both sides of his pedigree. 20-1 morning odds but try to bet before the race as I expect he goes off around 12-1. My bets are in on him in the futures book at 30-1, 18-1, and we added at 16-1 last Friday. As always Ymmv.
Zandon looked incredibly impressive when I saw him win the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland last month. The way he moved through traffic to come from the back after the 3/4 pole was truly a sight to see.
Mo Donegal was impressive from the video I saw of him at the Wood Memorial. Him being trained by Todd Pletcher is certainly a bonus for a horse.
I know Bob Baffert had a lot of good things to say about Messier but I'm not sure about how he's done since changing trainers after Baffert's suspension.
My plan is to bet the three of them in a box trifecta for the Derby. If I had to pick just a winner I would probably put my money on Zandon but at 3-1 I doubt I will bother to place a straight win bet on him. I may put a little bit on Taiba as a little bit of a longer shot at 12-1 based on what he did at the Santa Anita Derby but it is hard to have too much faith in a horse with only 2 races under his belt and whose primary jockey is riding Epicenter instead of him.
tawny port. granted the only race on the dirt was a finish 7 lengths back away from some of the contenders here. but the way the horse appears to be progressing, with a good trip by a real good jockey in santana i think the horse has a legit shot to close and win. also the trainer cox more often than not enters his horses if he has a legit shot of being real competitive.
I'm high on Epicenter if the track is fast and firm. He has beaten six of the other Derby horses in his prep races. He will get the rail with just two slower horses on his inside. I also think Cyberknife is legit. Tawny Port seems to be an improving horse that is flying under the radar. I was at the Blue Grass almost four weeks ago and was not too impressed by the field that Zandon beat. However, the track condition was good, and I have a feeling with rain, the track Saturday might be similar to what it was at the Blue Grass. In this case, I would give Zandon consideration. Keep in mind when you have twenty horses on the track, the best horse may not win just because there is so much traffic to negotiate. Oaks Day and the early part of the Derby Day card is where you can make a killing.
I have a history of playing short odds horses in the Derby, who lose and win the Preakness; see Point Given. Rain until Friday morning sort of makes a firm track tough. As someone mentioned, 20 horses don't mean the best horse wins. You need a horse that has early speed (change it) and is bred for distance (Charge it). Good luck to all who play the ponies.
I have horrible luck with betting on the horses. My poor luck began in high school when I would go to the old Meadowlands racetrack and bet on the trotters. Maybe it was the stench of old guys eating clams, drinking Pabst Blue Ribbon, and smoking cigars as they picked their bets.
I watched the Haskell live years ago - and even though I lost - it was very impressive to see Kentucky Derby horses live. The speed is amazing - and the horses are just amazing athletes. The jockeys must be fearless - as those horses are flying and they get very close.
I would discount the favorite Zandon(3-1), but there are two other horses with short odds that the consensus thinks has a shot Epicenter (7-1) and Messier (8-1) but I don't really have any favorites this year.
The favorite at the Derby is the mint julep. After I moved into my new house in CA I discovered that I had mint growing in the back yard. So I found a recipe for mint julep and gave it a try. It came in last place for me. :)
Hey Desert, sorry you wet yourself during your conniption fit, but I am still laughing at you, not with you. There is nothing a piece of shit like you can do or say that means anything. I could never be anti-abortion. I pray to Jeebus every day to go back in time and use a coat hanger to get rid of you.
As far as drinking and driving? Why do you think my wife and I love back roads? Slower ride so more time to drink alcohol and smoke weed. If we want a real buzz i add some 98.8% thc crumble to the flower so it's more like doing drugs and drinking than weed and drinking. I haven't been stopped for driving under since the day before Thanksgiving last year on the way home from desires. Cop was perturbed about the 10 empties he found, but pleased that I showed him 2 more, because it affirmed the fact my wife keeps her car like shit. 45 in 20 after 4 hours of drinking and my punishment was him telling me to drive safely and my wishing him a happy thanksgiving. The fourth of July 2020 was funnier because the we were getting high when we got stopped so a giant cloud of smoke came out the window when it went down. After a pleasant chat, near pleasant Valley cc. the cop requested that I return to my own town and commit my crimes there. I said thank you and assured him I would.
You need to understand dumbfuck - I decide what laws, if any, apply to me and no one else. You just don't get it: I am invulnerable to all bad things. Everything always works out. Everything. If you get a chance Desert try mixing some carbolic acid with grapefruit juice and drinking it. It will make your disposition and everyone else's improve.
Lmao Desert if I concentrate, I can see your urine running down your leg. Such a pussy, Wah. Scrub lol. You fucking weak little girl. Cool? Oh, wow man it's the 70's again lol. I understand your jealousy. If I wasn't me I'd be jealous of me too, just like you.
Lmao Desert, you make me laugh. You seem like an angry 15 year old. Come here and I will slap your face like the bitch teen you are. You're as tough as Chelsea Manning, just slightly less male.
in the last 10 races the favorite has won 5 times.
maybe the next 10 that amount will dwindle. i can't stand when favorites win, especially races like these. this is the type of race that if you hit something you could wind up paying taxes and still have enough to buy a brand new car as well as several vip sessions.
Rain on Saturday cannot impact my pick of Charge It because I have him in futures bets, not what will be on the odds board. If he doesn't start, they all pay zero with no refund. If it rains, he probably doesn't win. If he wins 1/3 of my futures bets are in at 30-1.
Desert you are literally the biggest Fag in history. Come to Jacksonville lol as if you would ever show up. You are a keyboard tough guy. I have no idea how old you are or how big you are. All I know is we ever run into each other; I will hurt you so badly that when I offer to stop if you cut your tiny penis off with a plastic spork; you will gladly do so. Since you think all desires reviews are fake why not come out here, prove to yourself what a dumb fuck you are, experience what a real adult American strip club is like, and that way you will have something to remember while the hospital tapes your penis back on. Gievn its size and heft all they need is a tiny strip of scotch tape. Every post you make Desert leads me to believe that you were assigned male at birth....
I have to say I didn't expect Rich Strike to come from behind like that. The horse wasn't even in the Derby 36 hours ago until another horse was scratched and came from deep in the field to win at 80-1.
I wanted Summer Is Tomorrow (obviously), but I love a good long shot win! That horse is kind of an asshole though- kept trying to bite the pony next to him after the race was over... took a while to calm him down! I guess horses can be divas too 🤔🤷🏼♀️😁
^ My niece did, I asked her why she wanted me to bet an 80-1 shot she said she could bet $5 and she'd be rich if her horse wins, couldn;t argue with her logic, so I bet it for her, damn she's 14 and she's rich, for now anyway ! 😁
At least til she goes to the mall .
29 comments
Latest
Mo Donegal was impressive from the video I saw of him at the Wood Memorial. Him being trained by Todd Pletcher is certainly a bonus for a horse.
I know Bob Baffert had a lot of good things to say about Messier but I'm not sure about how he's done since changing trainers after Baffert's suspension.
My plan is to bet the three of them in a box trifecta for the Derby. If I had to pick just a winner I would probably put my money on Zandon but at 3-1 I doubt I will bother to place a straight win bet on him. I may put a little bit on Taiba as a little bit of a longer shot at 12-1 based on what he did at the Santa Anita Derby but it is hard to have too much faith in a horse with only 2 races under his belt and whose primary jockey is riding Epicenter instead of him.
Did you know Secretariat’s heart was estimated to weigh 23 pounds but the average equine heart is only 8 to 9 pounds
https://www.cbssports.com/general/news/k…
I watched the Haskell live years ago - and even though I lost - it was very impressive to see Kentucky Derby horses live. The speed is amazing - and the horses are just amazing athletes. The jockeys must be fearless - as those horses are flying and they get very close.
As far as drinking and driving? Why do you think my wife and I love back roads? Slower ride so more time to drink alcohol and smoke weed. If we want a real buzz i add some 98.8% thc crumble to the flower so it's more like doing drugs and drinking than weed and drinking. I haven't been stopped for driving under since the day before Thanksgiving last year on the way home from desires. Cop was perturbed about the 10 empties he found, but pleased that I showed him 2 more, because it affirmed the fact my wife keeps her car like shit. 45 in 20 after 4 hours of drinking and my punishment was him telling me to drive safely and my wishing him a happy thanksgiving. The fourth of July 2020 was funnier because the we were getting high when we got stopped so a giant cloud of smoke came out the window when it went down. After a pleasant chat, near pleasant Valley cc. the cop requested that I return to my own town and commit my crimes there. I said thank you and assured him I would.
You need to understand dumbfuck - I decide what laws, if any, apply to me and no one else. You just don't get it: I am invulnerable to all bad things. Everything always works out. Everything. If you get a chance Desert try mixing some carbolic acid with grapefruit juice and drinking it. It will make your disposition and everyone else's improve.
I’ve heard some horses don’t like racing in muddy conditions. Or is that not much of a factor?
you left out his fetish for horsecock
they guy dreams about the derbies but it's not about racing!
maybe the next 10 that amount will dwindle. i can't stand when favorites win, especially races like these. this is the type of race that if you hit something you could wind up paying taxes and still have enough to buy a brand new car as well as several vip sessions.
Desert you are literally the biggest Fag in history. Come to Jacksonville lol as if you would ever show up. You are a keyboard tough guy. I have no idea how old you are or how big you are. All I know is we ever run into each other; I will hurt you so badly that when I offer to stop if you cut your tiny penis off with a plastic spork; you will gladly do so. Since you think all desires reviews are fake why not come out here, prove to yourself what a dumb fuck you are, experience what a real adult American strip club is like, and that way you will have something to remember while the hospital tapes your penis back on. Gievn its size and heft all they need is a tiny strip of scotch tape. Every post you make Desert leads me to believe that you were assigned male at birth....
That was a great race!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3v5w_RY…
At least til she goes to the mall .
And any video games that have microtransactions!