Lotto Gambling - Ever Done It?
shailynn
They never tell you what you need to know.
After doing research over the past 4,800 draws all numbers were pretty much picked evenly at somewhere between 9.5% and 10.5% of the time, with #5 being the post picked - at least out of the last 4,800 draws.
In comparison over the past 2 weeks, 9 was picked 7 times (the most) and 0 was picked only 2 times (tied for the least along with 3).
It’s truly random, I’ve tried to crack it but it’s impossible. I thought if you picked 2 numbers and were consistent with them you’d win 20% of the time, but that would only work if you’re talking over 1,000s of draws.
Any theories on how to pick better?
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Aside from that, just ask Juice since everyone knows he is the ultimate gambling guru.
https://www.inc.com/bill-murphy-jr/this-…
That's irrelevant to the game I'm playing, I am just concerned with the last digit - the fireball. I thought it would be easy, I could guess right around 20% of the time - I'm guessing correct about 12% of the time.
So, if a bottle is valued at $300, someone will usually list it at $320 (few extra dollars to cover shipping) then each person would pay $32 to “buy a spot.”
I’ve bid on bottles ranging from $150 all the way up to $1,400. So I’ve “bought spots” ranging from $15 to $140
So, the Illinois fireball is running today at noon. If I were to pick the number 8 today “buying my spot” and 8 hits, I win the bottle. If number 3 hits today, I lost my money. I can buy multiple numbers if I wish to increase me chances.
Assuming that the Illinois Fireball is a fair game and that all 10 numbers have an equal probability of being drawn, then picking the same number every game should result in a 10% win rate over time.
But the key words in that last sentence are "over time".
Each draw is an independent event and statistics have no memory. Any number can go on a "hot streak" or a "cold streak" at different points in time. Over the long run, it should all even out. (Again, assuming an unbiased draw - differences in things like weights or imperfections in the shape of the balls can add bias to the equation)
So if you are hitting 12% on 2 numbers, it sounds like you simply haven't played long enough for things to even out.
Indeed if casinos could get away with not offering poker tables many would do so. They make far less per square foot of floor space on table rakes than they do on slot machines and other games against the house. The only reason they bother is because these games are popular and a % of the players also dump money on the other crap. If a casino doesn't offer the poker then it'll lose customers to the nearby casinos that do.
It’s more interesting that the distribution of numbers seems fairly even. That shows it’s mostly chance.