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Lotto Gambling - Ever Done It?

Sep 3, 2020, 4:04 PM

They never tell you what you need to know.

So I’m involved with a group... Everyday people wager on what the Illinois Fireball 3 “Fireball” number will be. The number is 0 through 9 (0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9) and its picked twice a day. The other 3 “normal” numbers don’t matter.

After doing research over the past 4,800 draws all numbers were pretty much picked evenly at somewhere between 9.5% and 10.5% of the time, with #5 being the post picked - at least out of the last 4,800 draws.

In comparison over the past 2 weeks, 9 was picked 7 times (the most) and 0 was picked only 2 times (tied for the least along with 3).

It’s truly random, I’ve tried to crack it but it’s impossible. I thought if you picked 2 numbers and were consistent with them you’d win 20% of the time, but that would only work if you’re talking over 1,000s of draws.

Any theories on how to pick better?

comments (14)

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whodey5 years ago

The only sure way to keep from losing money when it comes to the lotto is not to play.

Aside from that, just ask Juice since everyone knows he is the ultimate gambling guru.

twentyfive5 years ago

There was a story about a bunch of Midwestern farmers finding a flaw in the algorithm of the lottery and exploiting it to win millions of dollars.

inc.com

Papi_Chulo5 years ago

I play Powerball and Mega Millions once in a while but most of the time I forget and I haven't played in a few months mainly out of lack of habit.

Papi_Chulo5 years ago

What is the avg Fireball jackpot?

shailynn5 years ago

Papi I think the average Fireball jackpot is only $500.

That's irrelevant to the game I'm playing, I am just concerned with the last digit - the fireball. I thought it would be easy, I could guess right around 20% of the time - I'm guessing correct about 12% of the time.

Papi_Chulo5 years ago

✌

winex5 years ago

@Shailynn, what do you put in to play? And what do you win when you guess right?

shailynn5 years ago

@winex, high end bourbon bottles.

So, if a bottle is valued at $300, someone will usually list it at $320 (few extra dollars to cover shipping) then each person would pay $32 to “buy a spot.”

I’ve bid on bottles ranging from $150 all the way up to $1,400. So I’ve “bought spots” ranging from $15 to $140

twentyfive5 years ago

what does a “spot” entitle you to ?

shailynn5 years ago

Of your number hits then you win the bottle.

So, the Illinois fireball is running today at noon. If I were to pick the number 8 today “buying my spot” and 8 hits, I win the bottle. If number 3 hits today, I lost my money. I can buy multiple numbers if I wish to increase me chances.

twentyfive5 years ago

Got it thanks

winex5 years ago

OK, so essentially it sounds like a fair game. (i.e. the buy in is 10% of the potential pay out)

Assuming that the Illinois Fireball is a fair game and that all 10 numbers have an equal probability of being drawn, then picking the same number every game should result in a 10% win rate over time.

But the key words in that last sentence are "over time".

Each draw is an independent event and statistics have no memory. Any number can go on a "hot streak" or a "cold streak" at different points in time. Over the long run, it should all even out. (Again, assuming an unbiased draw - differences in things like weights or imperfections in the shape of the balls can add bias to the equation)

So if you are hitting 12% on 2 numbers, it sounds like you simply haven't played long enough for things to even out.

rickdugan5 years ago

Hell no. Playing the lotto is about as smart as playing slot machines. If the odds were not heavily against you they would not exist. I would always rather be the house than play against the house. Statistically speaking you'd get better use out of that money by lighting it on fire to get your smoker/grill going.

Indeed if casinos could get away with not offering poker tables many would do so. They make far less per square foot of floor space on table rakes than they do on slot machines and other games against the house. The only reason they bother is because these games are popular and a % of the players also dump money on the other crap. If a casino doesn't offer the poker then it'll lose customers to the nearby casinos that do.

Cashman12345 years ago

It’s kinda interesting that you are gambling on gambling.

It’s more interesting that the distribution of numbers seems fairly even. That shows it’s mostly chance.