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All the Coronavirus Statistics Are Flawed

joker44

In the wind

"What we’re experiencing now is the fog of pandemic. The officials tracking COVID-19 are swimming in statistics: infection rates, case-fatality ratios, economic data. But in these early stages of the fight against the coronavirus, these figures each have their own particular limitations. We are already seeing how, in the haze of confusing data, political leaders are trying to marshal that uncertainty to override the advice of public-health experts. Indeed, President Donald Trump seems eager to seize on anything that can justify his push to reopen public life in mid-April, perhaps while daily cases are still increasing."

Interesting article published 3/26/20 in the Atlantic examining the *shortcomings* of Covid19 statistics as well as statistics regarding the economy.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv…

Below are the shortcomings of Covid19 HEALTH statistics; see the article for economic statistics shortcomings.

"To better identify both optimistic propaganda and useless pessimism, it’s important to see the limitations of the data we have before us.

Let’s start with the health statistics. A quick glance at available data in America will show coronavirus infection rates rising at a terrifying clip. In the U.S., the number of total confirmed cases is doubling every three days—quicker than in Italy, France, or the U.K.

But we have to be careful about drawing hard conclusions from that one statistic. Confirmed cases are a function of confirmed tests. After a tragically late start, U.S. testing capacity has doubled in the past week. Is the U.S. currently experiencing rapid growth in coronavirus cases, or rapid growth in coronavirus testing, or both? The answer should sound familiar: We don’t know yet, and it will be a while before we do.

Other metrics used to gauge the scale of the outbreak, such as hospitalizations and deaths, have their own limitations. Not all states are reporting hospitalizations, and once hospitals are full, additional cases might not show up in reported figures. Death statistics are also a function of case-by-case diagnosis and cause-of-death methodology. Many deaths due to COVID-19 may have been—and many more may continue to be—misdiagnosed as the result of pneumonia or another respiratory ailment.

With time and increased testing, the state of this outbreak will come into focus. But leaders should be humble, and citizens must be patient, about the fact that no single metric is gospel right now. Even many health statistics taken together can offer at best an incomplete picture of the scope of the crisis."

TL;DR = Drawing conclusions or predicting medium-term consequences from current data is potentially reckless without considering data-gathering shortcomings