OT: 2019 Kentucky Derby betting

15 comments

• skibum609

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  5 years ago

  I historically suck at betting the kentucky Derby. I simply lose every year, like I will tommorrow. Why do I do it? I love Horse Racing and have bet the Derby every uyear for 45 years. What is even weirder is that out of Derby horses I bet who start in the Preakness, almost 75% win the Preakness. An example would be Point Given who dilsiked the Churchill track and lost as the Prohibitive favorite. Wife and I jumped all over him at higher odds in the preakness and wone huge. The race time favorite loses this year after winning six years in a row. The field is mediocre and very similar. Until his last race War of Will was my favorite, but no matter thereason finishing 9th in your last prep race almost killed it for mand the number 0ne post draw sealed it. Win, Win, Win is a great closer and great closers never win the Derby. He hits the board but when I look at him I see Cryptoclearance, a plodder, so he doesn't win. At the end of the day, despite it being 19 years since a Wood Mmneorial winner has won, I think Tacitus wins. Great bloodlines and I look at him as the bets of the lot. Love to see Mott get the win. I will also play a big trifecta box, using Tacitus; Win, Win, Win on the lower 2/3 and I do love By my standards to hit the board. I will throw in another 2- 4 horses, bety it on NYRA bets and smoke some ghost train haze in my recliner as I watch it in peace.
• Countryman5434

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  5 years ago

  I have no interest in the kentucky derby. It is just a pain in the ass time of year where the traffic is bad and tons of out of towners packed in a city to small for them. If i am home just stay home
• a21985

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  5 years ago

  @country - I went to the derby once, and it was miserable getting in and out of there and finding a reasonable place to stay. That said, I live in a city that is 1/5 the size of Louisville, deals with an influx of 110,000+ people on football Saturdays in the fall, and 500,000+ people the 3rd week of every July, and they seem to handle it infinitely better than Louisville does their 160,000+ visitors for derby weekend.
• skibum609

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  5 years ago

  A2 if you truly love horse racing take a trip to Saratoga on any day other than Traver's day. The track was built in 1867; people picnic on the grounds; they let you bring in your own food and alocohol; people dress nicely; the area is stunning; you park near the training track and stables; they still walk the horses through the crowd and the Jockeys walk through too. They still have steeple chase on Wednesdays. At least 1 $100,000 stakes race per day. It is Mecca for horse racing fans and the August place to be.
• a21985

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  5 years ago

  @skibum - I was actually driving through Albany a few weekends ago and the thought crossed my mind to take a little detour.
• Warrior15

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  5 years ago

  I have lived about 3 hours from Louisville for 18 years now. Never been to the Derby. Just seemed like too much trouble for an event that only lasts a few minutes.
• whodey

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  5 years ago

  I've been to the Derby almost a dozen times over the years and while getting into/out of it can be a pain in the ass the event itself is worth it in my opinion. Much like any major sporting event, the electricity of the crowd building up to and during the race amplify the adrenaline high in a way you simply can't get watching it at home or at a bar. That being said, I'd much rather spend a Saturday at Keeneland in Lexington instead as it is a much more beautiful track. I'm not going to the Derby this year so I haven't really spent the time to deep dive into handicapping the field like I do the years I go. I did do a cursory review of the field and went to a local track (Turfway Park) to place a box trifecta on Bob Bafferts three horses Improbable, Game Winner, and Roadster. Those three seem to have the field covered now that Omaha Beach scratched. I also threw $20 on Tacitus to win based on having seen him run strong in the Wood Memorial just in case.
• flagooner

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  5 years ago

  Is there a white horse? Or is horse racing like the NBA?
• sinclair

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  5 years ago

  I like Tacitus's tactical speed, but I need to see where the odds go. I wait until right until post time to bet, trying to find the value. I like Tacitus at the morning line, but if it goes to 5/1, forget it. The same goes for Maximum Security. He is a good horse, but as people keep dropping money on him, I'm looking elsewhere for value. One horse that has been flying under the radar is Vekoma with an average speed figure of 101. Castellano gets the mount. Only Improbably and Game Winner have higher average speed figures. Be cautious on any horses coming out of the Arkansas Derby with just a 20 day layoff. Ten furloughs plus heavy traffic is going to take every bit of energy these thoroughbreds have saved up.
• flagooner

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  5 years ago

  Spinoff is a good bet if he stays above 15-1. He's in good form, finished second in the Louisiana Derby, earning a career-best Brisnet speed figure (102) in the process. His final fractions during the last three-eights of a mile (37.95 seconds) and last eighth-mile (12.82) were also impressive. Post position 19 isn’t doing him any favors, but his breeding is impeccable.
• twentyfive

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  5 years ago

  ^ should I bet a large portion of my portfolio on Spinoff ;)
• flagooner

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  5 years ago

  Hell if I know. I just highjacked that from an article online.
• twentyfive

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  5 years ago

  ^ Damn I thought you were in with the fixer, I’d better cancel my bet I hope I’m not too late.
• flagooner

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  5 years ago

  LOL
• a21985

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  5 years ago

  Well, that sucked. Would've come out ahead a moderate amount had Maximum Security not been DQ'ed. Silver lining is a list minute $25 show bet on Country House I made before post time when I noticed he wasn't gonna drop below 60 to 1 got me at least most of my money I lost back. I asked for an race where the favorite didn't win, but this was not at all what I expected or wanted.