OT: future market returns

And here it is everybody. This is the alias Dougster has been hiding under and it's finally been exposed in June 2016!!!!

There is always a hidden gem out there. Research and sometimes good luck will find it. IPO's are way off,but are a choice if you do your homework.

I see the housing market getting back to where it was pre 2008. To me that just means it's going to burst again eventually. Is this the only way people can make a quick buck these days - real estate? It's seems pretty hard to do that in the stock market these days.

Yeah, I think the stock-market is way over-valued. Do a Google search under "CAPE ratio" and you get a rough idea of how the market's PE ratio looks in a historical perspective. We're not nearly as bad as year 2000 -- but the valuations are not all that far below 1929 levels.

When the housing market crashed, we had the choice of letting the investment banks fail, or bailing them out (with taxpayer money), reducing interest rates to near zero, and pumping cheap money in with quantitative easing. The important point is that the stock market has been propped up by low interest rates and has nowhere to go but down. Didn't read Gross's article, but pretty sure that's the main point. As the Fed starts to raise rates, I would expect the market to go lower.

Of course, @Skibum will tell you that immigrants from Mexico are the problem. sarcasm

Seems to me you can own some real estate now and also a bond portfolio (hold 'em to maturity) as a hedge.

But the Feds can't even justify raising rates now - when do you see them realistically raising the rates?

I'm not disagreeing with you one bit random.

^^^ Shailynn, I don't think the housing market is as bad as 2008, at least where I live.

I think Yellen wants to raise rates, but we had another bad jobs report. Still, I don't see how the market can go up from here. Fed really has brilliant people and they are doing their best.

I agree the housing market isn't as bad as 2008 - prices are going way up in my area and it seems that banks are loaning money to anybody that can produce a signature just like they did pre-2008. I'm just hypothesizing that a house crash could happen again.

With crappy job reports the Feds hands are tied, and I don't see anything on the horizon to change the job reports - at least not until early next year at the soonest.

You're all just feeding into the noise, or believing the noise that's fed into you. Would you rather have 10% return on your portfolio with 5-6% inflation, or 5-6% portfolio returns with 2% inflation? There isn't much difference in the real return when comparing inflation rates, especially when we've been in a low inflationary environment and are expected to continue for some time. Of course market growth will slow when prices stagnate. Remember that over time stock markets are going to out pace the rate of inflation better than any other asset class, so you'd do yourself a favor by ignoring the noise and not feeding into it.

"Remember that over time stock markets are going to out pace the rate of inflation better than any other asset class"

Yeah, good point, Meat. Especially for young investors. But if you're retiring soon, I might pay attention to a market that looks over-valued.

The point is ladies and gentlemen that greed, for lack of a better word, is good.

And so are Chackin Fangers

More shit talk

I think there will be similar gains - as the market moves forward. Whether things are over valued or not - there will be opportunities created (in the future) that we can't imagine today. I think any attempts at projecting market activity are highly suspect - and minimally useful.

This is a perfect example of why market advice from the 1% is useless. If you have billions you don't need advice on how to grow your wealth, your only interest is in preserving what you have. Just keep investing for the long term and keep short term funds liquid enough to weather the storms that come through regularly, take profits when you are able to, and never listen to folks that claim to be able to predict the future the only prediction that is accurate is that the markets will rise and fall with regularity with each pullback will come a new wave and the highs will be higher than the previous one.

Amen, I made money before, I can make it again. Patience and luck seem to rule the markets.

The market has been in essentially the same range since the end of 2014. As we approach 60 we have gone to about 80% cash simply because the risk is no longer worth it. One blow up overseas and the market will free fall, so we're just paying down the mortgage so that it is paid off in 5 years instead of the remaining 10. Of course we are earning a solid 1.5% on our cash lol.

Reducing debt is a great plan. With my extra funds its what I'm using it for, as the returns on paying down debt is peace. You no longer have to think about making that payment and can start looking at having more fun with what you have.

From 1980 forward we've had boom and bust after boom and bust. It is all very destructive.

Sooner people can stop supporting this speculative economy the better.

And always remember that when things are crashing, don't walk under high rises. Walk in the center of the street if you need to pass.

SJG

Robin Trower- Record Plant, Sausalito, Ca 8/11/73 youtube.com