Comments by mark94 (page 22)

There are lots of videos on YouTube showing the current state of autonomous driving. They are close. But, yes, I think you have to drive the last 50 yards on your own. I expect Tesla will offer monthly subscriptions at various levels for self driving. They’ll price it affordably to change the way people drive. Even so, it will be billions in pure profit.

It will be a head wind for Tesla but there is also lots of good news pushing it forward. If the 12 month credit crunch turns into a multi year depression, everyone will suffer. Otherwise, I think Tesla might dip a bit then come back stronger. Over the next year, they will announce cars that are priced under $30,000 and save on high gas prices. They are well positioned for tough economic times.

The shoe that is dropping is the credit market is drying up. As Elon said, the next 12 months are going to be tough. The difference with Tesla is they can weather this storm with their $20 Billion in cash and no debt. They will continue building new car and battery factories, using their own money. Other car companies will close factories and may even go bankrupt because of their debt. When we come out of the next 12 months, Tesla will be perfectly positioned to dominate the car and energy storage businesses.

For 99% of the public, the best strategy is to consistently put money into the S&P 500 index fund ( or the Total Stock Market index ) and not take it out until retirement. That’s what I did. Two things have changed for me 1. As a combination of investment returns over the decades, and a simple lifestyle, I’ve got money I can put at risk 2. I have never seen a company with as much upside as Tesla combined with their healthy balance sheet. For me, in my situation, going all in on Tesla is a calculated risk worth taking. If it collapses, it doesn’t affect how I live. If it appreciates the way I think it will, I’ll have what Dave Ramsey calls generational wealth. It would provide financial security to my entire family for at least 2 generations.

From Twitter Janet Yellen: “If the debt ceiling isn’t raised, there would be hard choices to make about what bills go unpaid.” Wanna guess which bills will not go unpaid? ILLEGALS cellphones. ILLEGALS hotel lodging. ILLEGALS medical. ILLEGALS monthly assistance. AND OF COURSE ZELENSKYS WELFARE CHECKS!

And, as best I can tell, none of the value from this energy business is included in Tesla stock value. It just hasn’t gotten on the radar of the stock analysts, who view Tesla as a car company.

Another business segment in its infancy where Tesla is the leader is large scale energy storage. These are huge batteries that are sold to utilities and large companies. They store energy when the grid has excess capacity ( early morning ) and release it when demand peaks. They can also be used as backup power. Or, they can be integrated with wind and solar farms. This is a new business where demand has exploded. The total potential market is trillions of dollars. Tesla has a backlog in years of orders. Their profit margin on their battery systems is 40%. They are scrambling to add capacity.

At the moment, Tesla stock is up 3% on the day. It’s up nearly 20% in the last 30 days, when I went all in on Tesla. The trend is your friend. Of course, it could all come crashing down but I’m betting it won’t.

The difference between those 5 stocks, and Tesla, is that Tesla is still in its infancy in most of its business segments. Tesla is innovating, and taking chances, in ways that more established tech companies no longer do. But, unlike other tech start ups, Tesla can use its car business to self fund all its other initiatives.

Tesla is using its AI, called Dojo, to train machines ( in this case cars ) to emulate human activity. They have millions of miles of video and other data about driving which they’ve fed into Dojo. Then, using AI, Dojo has figured out how best to drive in every situation. Then, it teaches the car how to do this. I always figured self driving was a pipe dream. A thousand programmers could spend a hundred years writing code and never anticipate every driving situation. AI has solved that problem. All the other AI companies are doing things like writing papers or researching science. No other company is using AI to train machines. That’s where robotics comes in. Other robotics companies, like Boston Dynamics, write code to tell their humanoid robots to carry out specific tasks. Only Tesla is combining AI with robotics to train machines to carry out complex tasks currently done by humans. For example, Tesla feeds data into Dojo about how factory workers do their jobs in various situations, then trains the robots to do this. The robots are fairly simple to make. By adding AI software, the robots become extremely valuable. They can be trained to perform any repetitive job that human workers now perform. You might build a $10,000 robot then sell it for $200,000 after training it with AI. It’s the unique combination of AI with humanoid robots that sets Tesla apart from everyone else. Elon Musk described Tesla’s business as a factory builder. With robotics, they could build automated factories for every industry.

I’ve been a steady index fund investor all my life, except when I made a big bet on Apple, made some money, and sold much too soon. This time, I plan to stay invested in Tesla a few years and see what happens.

https://youtu.be/pbRoQ1cZDXo

https://youtu.be/gLpFfZjKhWU

Let’s not forget the dirty dozen. He had a great scene dropping grenades on Nazis,

In answer to the original question, I think it all depends on whether Biden agrees to a budget deal that accepts a lot of what House Republicans have passed. The Fed has been trying to use Monetary policy to fix a Fiscal problem caused by government spending. If we get government spending under control, the economy will get much better very quickly.

“ I just can't stomach putting more than 15% or so in a single stock.” Neither could I until I analyzed Tesla. The upside potential from all these business segments is staggering. They have $20 Billion in cash and no debt. They are self funding all their growth. I just don’t see much downside. Now, I kept enough money in cash and index funds so that I’ll be fine if Tesla goes in the crapper but I don’t think they will.

A big part of Tesla’s value will come from Robotaxis. Once Tesla figures out self driving ( likely in the next 12 months ), it’s a simply matter to configure a car to provide rides on demand without a driver. You use a $25,000 car which requires little fuel cost and no human labor to provide provide ride service for the life of the car. That might be a million dollars of revenue for each $25,000 car. Once these are in place, the economics of ground transportation changes, especially in cities. If you can use an app to summon a car to transport you across town for $5, there is less need for everyone to own a car. Then, you no longer need parking lots. Etc. The only thing stopping this is safe self driving software and Tesla is very close to that.

Cathy Wood at Ark Investment predicts Tesla stock will be $2,000 by 2027. It’s currently $180 ( $160 a month ago ). After doing my own research, I believe she is in the right ballpark. I guess I’ll find out.

For the first time in my long life, I’ve put a significant portion of my net worth into a single stock. Tesla. I did this after a deep dive into all its business segments. I’m convinced this is similar to getting into Apple just before the iPhone. An explanation would take a half hour, so I won’t go into it. There are about a dozen products and services I expect them to unveil over the next 18 months. I expect each announcement will cause the stock to pop. Their energy, artificial intelligence, robotaxi, self driving, and robotics businesses could all be trillion dollar businesses The current stock value doesn’t consider any of these businesses. In just the first month, I’m up 10%. A good start.

Biden: “ They want to put you in chains ! “ Does anyone still believe that ?

I’ve read lots of suggestions about the need to establish a Welcome Wagon ( am I showing my age ? ) for educating people moving from Blue States to Red States. There are some pretty funny videos along that line.

“California's budget deficit has soared to nearly $32 billion, Gov. Gavin Newsom said Friday “

question on Quora... "I am moving out of California due to the crime and homelessness for Florida, yet I do not want to be around the MAGA conservatives, what cities would be the best to look at when we start looking for a new home there?" Suggestions ?

Tax receipts for the state of New York are down a massive 40% from last April. I think the smart voters are fleeing to Florida and Texas. A day of reckoning is coming for the blue states.

The reason poor people voted for Trump is they believe they can be rich someday. All the Dems offer them is welfare and food stamps.