OT: Walmart Delivery
I've already made over 20% on WMT since I recently bought it during a sell off, but I'm not cashing in. I'm going to keep this as an additional long-term investment.
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Now it is already trading expensive at a 42 P/E, but I still think that analysts are missing the boat. I suspect that it's because many of them are based in the NYC metro area, where Walmart does not have the same presence as it does in most of the rest of the country. The Walmart stores in NY and the New England states are mostly smaller and older, with less grocery coverage. So they aren't experiencing the incredible value of the Walmart delivery service in the same way that others are.
A Benji for W+ gets a year of free deliveries at in-store prices. My only additional expenses are driver tips, which is well worth not having to go into one of those time eating Supercenters. Nowadays I buy the bulk of my groceries there other than meats, produce and specialty cheeses, putting in 1-2 orders per week. Their merchandising has improved dramatically when they started adding specialty brands that are popular with higher-end consumers and teens.
The best part is that I can add almost anything that I need to a weekly grocery order. Today, when I was putting in my weekend order over coffee, I remembered that one of my kids needed a school calculator and that I needed more filters for my A/C unit. Easy-peasy. Once I even added a new toaster, lmao. It has been a real game changer for me, easing burdens for me while still giving me Walmart pricing.
Amazon has already admitted in an earnings call that it cannot compete with Walmart in grocery delivery without a massive buildout. Walmart has turned every Supercenter into a local delivery warehouse and virtually every growing population center is now littered with them, yet they still have plenty of room to grow. I see this stock doubling in a few years as they keep building more Supercenters and more higher-income people, who traditionally avoid their brick and mortar stores because of the crappy shopping experience (myself included), discover the tremendous value of its delivery services.
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last commentGood Investment, cheap often inferior merchandise. You can save money on groceries, I would only buy staples and canned goods, their specialty items like baked goods and deli meats, are full of sugar, and highly processed.
Delivery service is overrated.
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Their canned items are bad. Deli meats inedibe. I like their store baked bread. Especially the seeded rye and steak rolls .
I love the convenience of delivery but the shoppers are usually really bad. Especially if theyre doing multiple orders at a time.
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With meat you have to see it and pick it yourself at any store now. Too many stores dont cool it enough to keep it fresh
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25, I agree with a lot of that. I don't buy deli meats and baked good there either.
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But in a large household like mine, we go through a lot of those "inner aisle" items over the course of a month. Health and beauty, laundry supplies, cleaning supplies, dry goods (pasta, rice, baking supplies, spices, etc.), canned and jarred items needed in certain recipes, pet food, condiments, toilet paper and paper towels, pharmacy supplies...the list is endless. And like I said, their merchandizing has improved dramatically in all of these items. They now carry a lot of the good stuff, including brands that my kids know and want (specialty ramen and chai, Flavortown dipping sauces, some meme stuff lmao, etc.).
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I can also buy milk, brand name coffee cream and butter, Perdue chicken as well as my favorite bacon and smoked sausage at prices far below the local supermarkets. They also carry the same line of pre-prepped bagged salads that Costco carries. But I'll admit that most of their produce and meat sucks.
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But when you add it all up, this is why the bulk of my weekly shopping now happens with Walmart. The driver tip is well worth the cash I'm saving and I can get it all done while I sip my morning coffee and goof off on this thing. I also disagree about the delivery service - I use it easily weekly (sometimes twice a week) and rarely have a problem.
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^ I do get it, I'm no longer shopping for a family, there's many items I probably would buy there if I was, my comments were mostly related to your stock purchase, I too have some WMT, but I like other stocks much better , that have much more upside.
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@RD
Remember you haven't made or lost anything if you haven't sold, if you have a 20% profit, you can lock that profit in by selling 20% of your shares, and buying another stock with your profits.
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25, I hope you don't sell it. I stand by my prediction that this stock is going to double in a few years. Walmart's e-commerce platform is still in early days, just finally turning a profit. Nobody can compete with them in the grocery delivery space, which also pulls through a lot of other ancillary sales. Not Amazon and certainly not the local grocers delivering at high markups through Instacart. There are still plenty of households to convert and many growing population centers in which to throw up more Supercenters.
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I think in the coming years they are going to cause Amazon, Instacart, local grocery chains and maybe even Costco a lot of pain as more families try out and like the Walmart delivery service and come to rely upon the incredible convenience and value. Heck local grocery store chains better hope that Walmart doesn't find a way to solve its produce and meat challenges or Instacart and some of those regional grocery chains could be seriously fucked.
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@RD
No question that the stock is solid, right now retail in general has a very big headwind with Trump's China fight, I don't know how it's going to shake out neither does anyone else, you need to stay diversified, I'm not telling you to sell, I am just pointing out that you can use winnings to pursue diversification. I like COST better, for a number of reasons, that doesn't mean I dislike WMT.
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Interesting, rick. Just wait for drone deliveries. Don't use it myself, but I saw a Walmart in greater Tampa area try out some drones for deliveries. There was a tent in the parking lot just for that.
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I’m not sure whether this is more a thread about the value of the stock, or personal opinions of the company itself. I’ll just assume it’s about personal opinions.
I personally prefer Winco and Aldi. Neither have curbside pickup, but both places have a layout where it’s easier to walk in and walk out with what’s needed anyways. If I was still living in central Texas, then of course I must bow before all that is HEB.
I thought Walmart’s curbside was cool way back like maybe a decade ago when I was using emeals and they had a feature of syncing grocery shopping with Walmart. But alas, meal portions was way too big, and I couldn’t keep up with using their meal planning stuff. Maybe if I had a whole family to shop for rather than mostly me, then I would have kept up with it more.
I do like Walmart’s beauty box. It’s $7 and they send random things to try once a quarter like press on nails or lotion or something. It’s versatile products that is more relevant than some of the other subscription boxes I’ve seen.
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Probably the best play would be to trade on the volatility. Buy when the market gets scared then sell when TACO.
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Tue first time Ibsaw an Aldi Inwas disappointed. Its more expensive than Smiths here and has brands I nwver heard ofm
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I'm a Republican but have made money on a couple TACO trades.
Thank Father, Son, and Holy Ghost that someone can get him to chicken out; he often doesn't get the true implications of what he's pushing for.
When Trump TACO's on China (and I think he will), WMT could pop.
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Stocks are only profitable if you have a huge amount and an manipulate your sales or hold on to them for a long time.
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Thats a relative concept. If a stock goes up, you make more profit the more units you have… but you still made some profit even with one stock
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The stock market goes up, on average, 8-10% a year.
If you're consistently "not profitable," it's because you're a dumbass.
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^ wise statement - just buy, diversity and hold, you’ll probably be okay.
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It’s interesting to see how Walmart if perceived in different parts of the country. For example, in some towns/areas Walmart if pretty much the only game in town so everyone shops there. Then I’ll go to another city that may have several other good options for groceries and I’ll say “hey do you ever go to Walmart?” to someone and they’ll say “what? Only poor people go there.”
Seems to be the same with Aldi and Trader Joes. If the city had a Trader Joe’s it seems most people there think Aldi is trash, but if it’s somewhere with no Trader Joe’s then Aldi is often perceived as pretty cool.
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===> "I’m not sure whether this is more a thread about the value of the stock, or personal opinions of the company itself."
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Honestly both. One feeds into the other.
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Back when this service was e-delivery service was first rolled out in 2020, it was not great. The interface was clunky, they were often out of stock on things that were ordered and they did not carry a lot of the brands that I (and my kids) prefer. They got a little more traction on their stock, but it wasn't a real hit.
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Boy what a difference a few years makes. They made the interface much better, fixed their inventory issues and now carry a lot of items that are popular with spoiled kids and higher income consumers. This has led to rapid growth in its e-commerce business and a very steep upward climb in the share price since the beginning of 2024. I am one of those people who previously did very little shopping at Walmart, but now rely upon it much more heavily.
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Just yesterday I put in an order for about $140 in goods that easily would have cost me $175+ ($200+ if I had ordered it through Instacart) in my local grocery store. Even with a $14 tip (10% of order cost) to the driver and an extra $3 for expedited delivery, I still came out ahead and I didn't have to leave the house - it was all right at my front door in under 2 hours from the time of order.
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Better still, they have a ton of room still to grow with their e-commerce platform. They are still in the early phases of penetrating a whole new marketplace of higher income consumers who have not traditionally been Walmart's customer base. The brilliance of turning all of their Supercenters into local delivery hubs and in expanding their merchandising cannot be understated.
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None of their competitors can compete with this - they just don't have the combination of size and infrastructure. IMO over the coming years they're going to take serious market share from Costco and Amazon and may very well cripple Instacart and some regional grocery store chains - I just don't see what any of these companies can do to build up enough in the next few years to compete with this. Amazon is already tacitly ceding the grocery delivery space to them and with it any pull through merchandise sales. Costco's is the only outfit who might stand a realistic chance, but its warehouses are just too spread out to provide blanket coverage in different regions.
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Mark my words, it will be trading at $200 in 3 years. And to others who talked about diversification, I am already diversified in my main retirement account, but have taken a chunk position in my play account and intend to ride it for the long haul.
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===> "I’ll say “hey do you ever go to Walmart?” to someone and they’ll say “what? Only poor people go there.”"
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@shailynn: This is exactly why Walmart still has so much room to grow. The people paying $100 for W+ and using its e-commerce platform aren't the traditional lower-income consumers who visit their brick and mortar stores.
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It's going to take time to keep overcoming that perception, but it will happen as more people try it, realize how incredibly convenient the delivery service is and discover that they can now actually get the stuff they want now - at cheaper prices to boot. Some examples in my order yesterday were a high end pasta sauce with Sam Marzano tomatoes and no citric acid (still pricey but $2 cheaper than my local Publix), specialty scented hand soaps that my kids like, condiments recently made popular by a Food network host and some ramen brand that is now part of a meme that the kids are familiar with.
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Walmart is on the precipice of something huge.
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Anybody buy Rick’s strip club stock lately? If there’s a bell weather for anyone who has on how to not follow any stock advice, that would be it.
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I own a lot of WMT. My cost basis is under $20! It is a great defensive stock. Being on the road a lot, I shop at a fair amount of Walmarts. I can make one stop and get food, beer, personal care items, office supplies, car parts, etc in the same building. The Walmart locations in bigger urban centers are usually chaos, but the Walmart stores in smaller towns are cleaner and more organized. It is just a reflection on the type of people in the area. I haven't gotten a Walmart+ subscription yet, but I order stuff from Walmart.com frequently. I like it better than Amazon.
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I've made money with wmt, although I usually sell puts instead of buying stocks. Their dividend is less than 1%. Brick and mortar retail can be tough, my Walgreens (wba) has gone from $28 to $11.25 and stopped paying dividends. It could happen to walmart. Right now I like F (ford). I'm down on F, bought at $14 and it's $10.38 today. But, before buying I had made a lot selling puts. Their dividend is almost 6%, and they often have additional dividends as well. The best time to buy tsla or btc has past, but I'm still holding both.
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@rick what happens if you dont tip the driver? Theyre directly working for walmart, not a third party like doordash etc right…
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@RD
My opinion on Walmart, it’s a solid business, in response to “only poor people shop at Walmart “ at one time it was the most common opinion amongst a certain group, but that’s not true any more.
Walmart’s M. O. is to overwhelm anyone who enters with so much variety that it’s impossible not to make a purchase if you enter the store, the only problem with their business right now is the slow checkout, which gives a large edge to Amazon, they conceivably will develop a solution to this, which might give them an edge over competitors in the Brick and Mortar space, but Amazon has an advantage it the delivery side. As far as Costco is concerned they aren’t really trying to compete with either Amazon or Walmart, the have their own advantage with their almost customer culture base, I don’t see pure supremacy of any of these brands, I do believe right now Costco is the strongest of the three, and the longer this trade war goes the better it gets for Costco’s brand, they do have more of the upscale customers along with better sales per square foot, and higher spend per ticket (unique customer) and higher quality goods.
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