As I'm typing this, WMY is holding at 83+ and showing no signs of dipping much more. I'm wondering if I'm going to miss by chance to get in while the gettin's good by holding out for an $80 purchase price.
For years Walmart was the sleepy mature stock that people bought for the dividend and as a defensive play during downturns. It was thought that they catered mostly to lower income consumers. During economic downturns, it benefitted from higher income consumers "trading down" to get the cheaper prices. But historically, when the economy improved, those higher income consumers would trade back up. But I don't see those trade-ups happening again the the future.
Walmart spent years investing heavily in its e-commerce platform. They also completely revamped their grocery merchandising to carry more items that are popular with higher income consumers and have become much more nimble in meeting changing demand. Additionally they kept building Supercenters at a rapid pace, which now double as local delivery warehouses, during periods when others were scaling back on brick and mortar capacity.
Now it is all starting to pay off for them. Even at its current price, well down from the YTD high, it is up 39% from just one year ago. It's stock is now trading at multiples more reminiscent of a tech company.
Their delivery service for basics like groceries and other products has become so good that nobody can compete with them. Same day in most of the country courtesy of the vast network of Supercenters, often within a couple of hours if you want to pay up a little, at the same prices they charge in store.
Amazon has already conceded that they would need a massive buildout of infrastructure to compete with Walmart grocery delivery. Smaller grocery stores are trying using services like Instacart, but given that they are already more expensive and Instacart needs to mark the food up yet more, I don't see that as a winning long-term strategy.
Just brilliant. What Walmart has done will one day be a classic B-School case study.
The best part is that, since 60% of Walmart's sales are now grocery and 80% of the U.S. grocery supply is sourced domestically, almost half of its sales are already buffered from tariffs. To the extent that the other 50% of its sales are impacted by tariffs, Walmart is uniquely positioned to force suppliers to share the pain.
I'm sorely tempted to bite the bullet and pull the trigger now. Mark my words, I think that this stock will be trading at $150 within a few years as the company continues to further expand its grocery and other product delivery reach.
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last commentBuy it, it’s not bad there are better plays by you’ll see some growth.
BTW dont count on groceries being 80% tariff free, still plenty of foreign goods in your local grocery and Walmart is no different
I think it might be worth a shot
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Walmart just bought an entire mall complex (all the surrounding retail pads as well) right outside of downtown Pittsburgh.
Everyone is wondering what they’re going to do with that, and will they gobble up other cheap retail space across America?
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They're a beast. They've doubled paid W+ membership in just a few years to 60+ million with plenty of room to grow. I think that they are already hurting grocery chains and will eventually start taking chunks out of Amazon's sales, especially as they get more more large urban penetration.
The combination of low prices, same day delivery and one stop shopping is potent. I order from them now once or twice a week. It's incredibly convenient. Mostly it's grocery staples and various household sundries, but when I need something else I can just add it to my next order. When my kid needed a new alarm clock, I just tacked it on. Same with various kitchen utensils, a toaster, beach towels, etc. I barely ever have to go to a brick and mortar store anymore, except for produce and meat because Walmart does a poor job in those departments.
As they continue to expand their footprint over the next several years, I think that a lot of retailers are going to be in trouble.
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WMY was supposed to be WMT btw - typing too fast, lol.
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^ you might have missed your window of opportunity
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^ Seems so, at least for now. It wouldn't surprise me though if there is some more panic selling in the coming days. This market is so jumpy that all it would take is some other bad news, like a new retaliatory tariff from China or the EU, or a bad piece of economic data, to send it on a downward dip once again.
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I think the VIX hit 60, unless you’re just gambling I don’t think it’s smart to buy until the market finds a defined bottom
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I'm a Republican but good fucking luck trying to predict Trump's actions. You'll just go mad.
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@25: That happened overnight. The VIX is still back down to around 48 now, but that's still very high. The question is how much more is WMT going to come down even if the broader market tanks. It's been getting a hell of a lot of price support at $83.
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I’m ok about Walmart but like I said there’s better options in the retail space, I personally like to spread it around, look at Costco they have 140 million paid memberships and they don’t need to screw around with the cheaper shoppers, or look at BJs another small piece of that group, with much more room to run than Walmart. Like I said, Walmart isn’t a bad choice, reason I like the other two better, less moving parts, means less to go wrong.
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We'll have to agree to disagree on Costco vs. Walmart. Costco has had a nice run, but it's way too expensive now to buy more shares. I also don't believe that they are as recession resistant as Walmart due to the high ticket charges. I also believe that they are way late to the delivery game and that it's going to cost them in the long run.
Maybe we'll look back on this a couple of years ago and see who was right. 😊
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That should be "a couple of years from now."
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I’m fine with that I actually own all 3 companies Costco has been in my portfolio for over 30 years, Walmart about 12 years, and I bought BJs about 3 years ago after my wife bought a membership in the new store that opened nearby. Of the Three companies we shop Costco the most, and we also spend the most per visit at Costco as well.
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Here is the issue. My daughter works as a buyer for s retail chain. The order things month in advance. With these tariffs changing every day they do not know what to do. They are not going to order stuff that will be double the price. Its a mess trying to run retail.
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I don't try to time stock buys, just stick with mutual funds on autopilot. Some of my funds have WMT in them ( a whopping 1%). Still an interesting stock to follow.
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You could always buy smaller amounts and dollar cost average over a period of time, it’s not necessary to overload, just set a price for yourself and make incremental purchases
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I already have long-term WMT exposure in the ETFs I hold in my retirement account. The point of my play account is to take advantage of short-term market dislocations and make moves that I can cash in on in a year or less. But it requires getting in at very attractive price points.
Anyway, que sera, sera.
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Nobody gets to buy at the very bottom or sell at the very top, except for by random chance, what you’re describing is gambling not investing. That’s where the old adage about bears make money bulls make money pigs are made into bacon!
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Pulled the trigger at 81.96. So now we'll see if i get to cash in before this time next year.
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