Potential Tariff Impacts

This comes down to a simple point. Trump himself signed the USMCA and now he's saying that it doesn't mean shit. The rest of North America and the rest of the world is looking at that and coming to the conclusion that maybe America's other promises don't mean shit. It's called sowing the wind.

I wouldn't be surprised in the least if the Mexican government makes casual travel from America as inconvenient and annoying as they can. Hard to blame them. Did we say an FMM was $30? Our bad, it's $75 now. Oh, and we're going to scan your ID before we let you in to Cascadas or HK...

The answer is bad. It's bad for every American consumer

Yes, Mexico and Canada are retaliating. But, unlike us, they opt to not elect idiots to lead them. Only shit-themselves imbeciles like Trump think across-the-board tariffs (or high visa fees) make any sense. Mexico will probably do the same thing that Canada is doing. Thought out, targeted, counter-measures that will create political pressure within the US, to stop its toddler President from running with the scissors. I doubt US visitors to Mexico are generally Trump supporters. Reducing foreign tourism is unlikely to spur an increase in domestic tourism. Sex tourists, however, are probably more likely to be pro-Trump. Because more desperate poor people mean more abusable sex workers with low rates. So maybe word is going to trickle down from Mexico City to the TJ cops. Put more bolillos up against the wall in the Zona De Tolerancia.

Tariffs - you can look them up, there are a lot. The tariffs on American exports just supplement the Canuck's socialist gov't, as they do for the EU/Europe. Canada benefits from our military protection as an added bonus.

These are just a few simple examples of Canadian tariffs on American exports.
Dairy, Eggs, and Poultry: tariffs on dairy products like milk, and yogurt can exceed 200%, 245.5% on cheese. Wisconsin is the dairy capital of America and borders The Great White North.

There are lumber tariffs too.

For some goods, tariffs depend on the Harmonized System (HS) code and can range to over 100% though most are much lower.

If Canada is our "friend", they need to be fair trading partners. I get protecting your country as it comes first. I'm just tired of America being the world's piggy bank, and it is now publicly crystal with the Doge Audit Reporting. People don't like change. And people don't like being taken advantage of once they know they are.

@ilbbaicnl - just wow. Mexican gov't officials are bought and paid for by the cartels, and look what Canada did to Truckers a few years back plus those who can afford medical care come to the USA as the wait in Canada is terrible.

We've had tariffs under Brandon, and we had them with #45 only we had low inflation so tariffs aren't the Boogey Man for inflation; Dems try to keep it as simple as possible for their minions using Common Core to keep them confused.

Trudeau goes Blackface and no one cared yet if a Conservative had done that Trudeau and his Nomenklatura would have thrown them to polar bears for a snack.

If congress will grow a pair and make the tax cuts permanent, codify a lot of DJT's ExOs, do the corp 15% (this is why over a $1T has been committed to doing business in America), cut taxes on SS and tips (yes, reasonable rules will be needed), and even make English our official language, we will benefit.

See, when all you have are insults and juvie comments, you are just a pathetic loser, and I don't mean a TUSCL Brand PL.

Get back to me in 4 years and we'll see who was right.

^ Hi, did you just invent a bunch of fake tariffs to feel better about Trump's deplorable tariff policy? We've had free trade with Mex & Can since NAFTA in the 90s, and that agreement was last updated as the USMCA under Trump. Stop watching OAN and do some basic reading on the subject.

These tariffs will be devastating economically. They'll cause recessions accompanied by massive inflation in all 3 countries. The potential impact on TJ enjoyers is going to be much more severe IMHO than the re-instatement of a $30 FMM (which I agree is a possibility too).

Your earning power and the value of your savings will decrease, and simultaneously the price of arribas, fichas, and hotels in the Zona will go up.

Let’s see what he says tonight at his address to the Congress, bet he says nothing about the stock market. He knows what he’s doing and it’s not good for most Americans.

Mexico and Canada are probably looking at options to devalue their currencies. That encourages exports (offsetting the effects of US import tariffs) and discourages imports. That will help keep what the BGs charge low in dollar terms.

@mogul1985 we don't have to wait 4 years.

Markets took a nose dive last night, down 1.5%, so we've already lost, what close to a billion dollars in value overnight?

Tariffs are a wrecking ball for markets. I miss the days when Republicans weren't fascists and were instead pro free-markets.

@RonJax2: that's exactly what I'm concerned about. Not only about the likelihood of having to pay at least $30 to enter TJ (and who knows, maybe that cost goes up as well), but the costs of ZN hotels, bar drinks, and arribas very likely would go up, making it increasingly not worth going if everything will cost just about the same as the U.S. I'm sure (and I hope) the owners of HK and the other ZN clubs will fight any efforts to discourage tourists; we U.S. mongers are the main source of revenue for them and they'd hate to lose us.

I thought Trudeau made a good point of how Canada did exactly what was asked to do and Trump still put on the full Tariffs. Also he is complaining about a trade deal he signed. Clearly Trump can not be trusted to keep his word. Anyway, I went short weeks ago and am making money everyday. Look at the Tesla crash

Hmm none of my retirement cd's lost a cent. Sorry you billionaire PLs are suffering losses.

Anyone who calls a 1.5% drop in the market a "nose dive" should be laughed out of the room and thumped on their tiny ass head. That's nothing.

Hey, I thought Trump was supposed to be servicing his corporate overlords who are, guess what, mostly publicly traded stocks!

@skibum609 When inflation is at 4% due to tariffs and deportations you're going to find out that your savings in the CD isn't as safe as you thought. You'll probably be here on the complaining about the cost of eggs and lap dances while being completely unaware that you voted for that shit.

Looking at the current top losing stocks, it looks like investors are more worried about negative consumer surveys currently, rather than the tariffs.

@OPIllini96 the other thing I worry about is increased harassment from the police, scammier meseros, and even less engaged or disinterested chicas. People in Mexico are fucking pissed off at Americans right! How is that going to shake out in terms of service and experience?

I'm traveling to Mexico later this month, and fuck, what does one plan to say to people about shit like the "Gulf of America", the designation of cartels as terrorist organizations, and US drone flights over Mexico?

I gather the challenge is to offer empathy without disowning it. Like, you can't be like "don't blame me I voted for the other guy" because in any foreign country people won't see it that way, you're just a Gringo, not a democrat or independent. What's happening is still your fault in the eyes of many overseas.

What a disaster!

A final question for everyone: What impact will tariffs have on border crossings? Like can we expect longer lines, more searches on both sides of the fence? How are they going to be verifying that I'm not smuggling avocados tax-free in my luggage?

Plus ^^ the worry is that the dollar weakened which is the opposite of what should have happened when the tariffs were, started.

Damn man! I’m headed to TJ next week for my maiden voyage. Now I’m second guessing!!!! Been planning this trip for a couple months and all this bs is cause for pause…

@Cravemybbc I'd say go while you can and the arriba is still $120. I don't think enough has changed, yet, to warrant cancelling a trip next week. If you wait, maybe it gets more expensive, or maybe who knows, we won't be allowed to go to Mexico at all.

I would be personally curious for you to report back on any heighten security at the border.

> These tariffs will be devastating economically. They'll cause recessions accompanied by massive inflation in all 3 countries. The potential impact on TJ enjoyers is going to be much more severe IMHO than the re-instatement of a $30 FMM (which I agree is a possibility too).

Your earning power and the value of your savings will decrease, and simultaneously the price of arribas, fichas, and hotels in the Zona will go up.

👆🏻RonJax2’s response is spot on, and I agree 💯 %. IMO, potential tariffs will impact all one way or another.For some the impact will be more severe than others, but nonetheless it’ll be felt hard throughout.

In some places in Mexico, like Culiacán for example, there are a lot of Mexicans who hope Trump will pressure/assist Mexico to destroy the narco gangs. The Morena government tends to turn a blind eye to organized crime, unless there's internal local political pressure to act against it.

When (Bill) Clinton lowered tariffs against China, a lot of factories moved from Mexico to China. There was a lot of hostility towards people of East Asian appearance in Mexico due to that. (Mexicans tend not to sweat the fine points of Asian geography.) Since Baja California Norte has a lot of maquilladoras, that are liable to have huge layoffs, that could be dangerous for bolillos.

I had planned to go to Montreal and Toronto soon but right now, ahhh awkward

@RonJax2: agreed 💯

The tariffs will be horrible for our economy obviously. There is a video of a guy gloating about liberal tears after the election so proud that he voted for Trump. The update is he posted another video saying his daughter's medication went from $10 per month under Biden to over $1800 per month after Trump fucked with prescription drugs. Numerous others have said their insulin prices shot way up. Millions of people will be affected negatively by Trump's incredibly stupid policies.

^ Should I file this alongside your prediction that Trump wouldn't even get 200 EVs because of abortion? And that porn and strip clubs would be outlawed?

^ And that porn and strip clubs would be outlawed?

Don’t put it past Trump to do just that. Porn is one of the issues addressed in Project 2025 - Trump and his cronies reportedly want to shut it down. According to a BBC report:

“ In other proposals, Project 2025 suggests banning pornography and shutting down tech and telecoms companies that allow access to adult material.”

If he succeeds there, you know he’ll go after the strip clubs next. I don’t know if he’ll be successful because the porn and strip club industries have powerful lawyers who will bring up the First Amendment - freedom of speech.

How the hell is there a Mexican President named Sheinbaum?

@OPIllini96 - I'll bet you $10,000 that neither porn nor strip clubs will be outlawed.
I offered @dustyj that bet, if he had such conviction, and he went silent.

I'm not a fan of these tariffs, not because fentanyl isn't a problem or these countries haven't been applying asymmetrical tariffs, but because we're going back on agreements we made and we look unreliable.

But it seems like the lib cope squad here will attribute anything negative that happens on Earth to Trump.

So Puddy Tat what specifically are the positives of these tariffs? They cause all of us to pay higher prices for no reason at all. Please explain the positives in detail.

Don’t like tariffs? Buy American, hire American

(Cuban strippers get a pass)

You can keep complaining about libs as we go into a recession caused intentionally by Trump for no reason at all. Once again libs aren't your enemy. Billionaires are. Who benefits from a recession or depression caused by Trump? Billionaires do. Trump is intentionally fucking up this country.

Hopefully Trump's ego will let him reverse the tariffs because he knows a major market crash would leave him 100% to blame.

^ Positives of the tariffs? Leveling the playing field for American goods. Like I said, I'm not a fan of them because we've gone back on one promise not to impose them already. But we're starting to see massive investments in American business. Chips, cars, it's the return of American manufacturing jobs, that which Barack Obama said weren't coming back.

As for a recession? We've built up a consumer debt time bomb, increased interest rates to deal with Biden's unnecessary spending. Like the real estate crash in 2008, these things don't happen overnight. Trump hasn't had a chance to enact much economic policy. Deportations fairly small compared to the overall number of illegals in the country. Federal workers? I keep hearing how this is going to cripple our economy, but at the same time I'm hearing how DOGE isn't saving money. Both of these cannot simultaneously be true.

You really think DOGE is trying to save money? Elon doesn't do anything that doesn't benefit himself. He's trying to funnel more money to billionaires as always.

I'm just hoping for the best.

@dustyj - unsupported accusation. What he's receiving is just as much in the public domain as anything else. Besides, for what we've given him, we've gotten ridiculous ROI. Tesla, SpaceX, Starlink are all running circles around their federal government counterpart.

pReSIdeNT mUSk isn't the flex the left thinks it is, when he's this generation's best entrepreneur.

Tesla's stock is tanking as people from all over the world are boycotting anything to do with Musk. Trump just lied again about no tax on tips, overtime and social security. Once again none of that is in the tax bill they are voting on.

^ So is Musk using this to enrich himself or not? You're saying he is yet his stock is tanking. If he were that concerned about it he would never have taken on such a high risk enterprise as DOGE.

Why do you think Musk spent 270 million to get Trump elected? The rest of the world can see through Musk and are boycotting Tesla.

Tesla is dropping because Taxpayer funded federal subsidies are being stopped. People who look at Tesla for EVs just don't get it. My portfolio was up 48% in 2024, and sure I've taken a 10% hit the past 2 weeks as adjustments are expected. I'm not at all concerned.

All you dooms-day'ers, or better put Chicken Littles, you'll be fine. Just be sure to stock up on clean underwear and don't get to far from a bathroom. It'll "pass."

Trump will tank the US economy. But idiots will still support him

If no tax on Tips and SS are not included in Congress' tax bill, Congress writes these, all Hell will be unleashed. Sure, there will be rules w/common sense. BTW, SpaceX is much more cost efficient than anything Lockheed or Boeing have done. And tariffs: This is worth repeating I said earlier. Besides drugs and illegals, we have been tariffed and our exports are heavily regulated, and they us "friends"? It's time the USA stops subsidizing THEIR Socialism. Suck it CANADA, MEXICO and EU!

These are just a few simple examples of Canadian tariffs on American exports.
Dairy, Eggs, and Poultry: tariffs on dairy products like milk, and yogurt can exceed 200%, 245% on cheese. Wisconsin is the dairy capital of America and borders The Great White North.

There are lumber tariffs too.

For some goods, tariffs depend on the Harmonized System (HS) code and can range to over 100% though most are much lower.

If Canada is our "friend", they need to be fair trading partners. I get protecting your country as it comes first. I'm just tired of America being the world's piggy bank, and it is now publicly crystal with the Doge Audit Reporting. People don't like change. And people don't like being taken advantage of once they know they are.

Trump once again telling ridiculous lies about 200 year olds collecting social security. This has already been debunked but he always likes to repeat obvious lies. His stats are always lies.

^ So, you have access to the SSA database, and have reviewed the actual records? And as far as Medicare/Medicaid goes, the Miami Herald did a study and found $50B in annual fraud. That was in 2007. If anyone over the age of say 90 is collecting SS, they should be checked out, and it isn't all that hard. 60 Minutes interview a granddaughter who had been cashing her deceased grandmother's SS check for 30 years and didn't know that was a problem. This was back like 15-20 years ago.

Trust But Verify. Why would anyone resist?

There should be some process to verify the eligibility of anyone receiving any government assistance no less frequently than annually. Also, as a matter of governmental efficiency, why aren't MEs or funeral workers expected to send in paperwork verifying their identification of the deceased to the federal government? If that process exists, who in the government is responsible for updating that information and are they being held accountable? None of this is difficult or expensive to implement, and the annual savings in fraud protection would more than offset any associated costs.

and Censure Al Green

"Why do you think Musk spent 270 million to get Trump elected?"

So did he do this for money or didn't he? He would never have taken on anything as controversial as DOGE with a money motive. He could have donated them disappeared.

But it is pretty hilarious how you Dems were all on his dick until he calls them out on their overt hostility to free speech. He's still showing us how many things the private sector actually does better than our bloated, fucked up, incompetent federal government.

"The rest of the world can see through Musk and are boycotting Tesla."

Lol. Whatever makes them feel like they still have some agency. How'd that Feb 28 boycott go. I spent a few thousand extra to spite them.

Eventually enough people will see past the inane "Musk is a Nazi" meme. That's why, even with dissatisfaction at some of what Trump is going, the American left is a fucking joke that can't provide an alternative.

^ Meanwhile your boy is starting to backtrack on tariffs, as usual he's putting out mixed signals using Lutnik as his messenger, and I wonder if anyone noticed, Musk at last nights speech was wearing a blue suit and tie, wondering if he's signaling something himself.

Watching the Democrats last night reminded me of my third day in first grade when we had a substitute teacher. Trump may suck, but Democrats are just disgustingly stupid. Racists too. Thats on you Mayor Michelle Shame on you Woo.

Why did Musk take on DOdGE? To undermine oversight of oligarchs businesses. They don’t NEED more money. It is just their way of keeping score.

All politicians lie. There are too many uncomfortable truths for honest people to win elections. The problem with Republicans is they scapegoat people (and countries) that are already in risky circumstances. Whereas Democrats scapegoat the wealthy, who are much less likely to be truly affected by it.

You don't need to know much history to know that fast, large-scale change is a long shot gamble. We all have to look around and ask, should I really be first in line for the gubment to make my dreams come true? Consider the risk of breaking a system that provides advantages and opportunities not found in the same abundance elsewhere.

^Democrats have scapegoated Israel, home to the world's smallest minority Adolph, so calm the fuck down and stop lying.

Democrats' strategy.

Today’s episode is proof that the administration has no choice but to respond to market pressure
I actually agree with Skibum about the democrats and Israel, but the Republicans are doing the exact same thing to Ukraine and both are disgusting, and shameful. That’s no way to treat our allies.

^ Hope you're buying these dips.

I’ve bought a bit more of equities that I already own not terribly concerned about the market, because I know that Trump cares more about the visuals than he lets on. He’d be a lousy poker player, same as the deals that he makes, it’s easy to con a con man.

^ I bought into a biotech I've been watching for a while. Otherwise standing pat. For personal reasons I'm not in a position to put a lot in nor take a lot out right now, but even if I were, I'm not a market timer.

There's a lot more than Trump going on in the markets though.

^ if you like biotech, buy NVO
I’m loading up on the big tech, PLTR, NVDA,

Everyone is a market timer, just depends on when they decide to buy. My advice to everyone is buy in small increments, and when it goes down buy more

^ If you want to define it that way. I've always had my 401k on autopilot, index or target date funds. That shit, I've always just let fly.

NVO, that ship has sailed. LLY's got a better drug and a few more where that came from, and more of a drug portfolio in general. If you've got risk tolerance, look at the companies developing the next generation of obesity drugs.

I have more LLY than NVO, but for a small investor LLY is expensive, I still like NVO, I’ll give you another even though I own a ton of COST, it’s expensive you can buy BJ for a lot less and it has room to run. I own both COST since 1994, and I have a ton of that as well

"These are just a few simple examples of Canadian tariffs on American exports.
Dairy, Eggs, and Poultry: tariffs on dairy products like milk, and yogurt can exceed 200%, 245.5% on cheese."

^Mogul1984, those are only if they go over quota, as negotiated by trump himself in the USMCA. Lol.

@gammanu95 "Also, as a matter of governmental efficiency, why aren't MEs or funeral workers expected to send in paperwork verifying their identification of the deceased to the federal government?"
When my wife passed away on 21-Feb-2024, the funeral home contacted SS/Medicare and her Supplemental Part D and they did quickly drop her. I have no doubts that low-end funeral homes don't do this, and they should be dealt with. When people are over say 100, verifying is reasonable.

When my wife was on SS Disability in 2004 when she had Small Cell Lung Cancer, she was on SSD for 1 year. When she went back to work, we notified SSA and they said "we keep people on for 6 months in case they have a relapse." She just put the money in a saving account in case SS wanted it back. Why? While she was SSD, SSA after the first 6 months said they did a review and were over-paying and wanted some back. They also said they "could" do another review.

SSA is seriously jacked-up. While on SSD, SSA put her on Medicare A/B. We had coverage and didn't want it, my insurance covered her. We couldn't get her off. After she was back to work, SSA left her on Part A and never took her off even though she didn't need. Oracle brought her back after a 1 year, and put her back in her same role. 5 years later her role was off-shored and she was laid-off. Her MS was at the point where it was good to stop working even though she worked from home; actually, she started WFH in 2000 when Oracle wanted some people set-up at home in case of storms or disasters. When she was laid-off, she went on SSD for MS for like 3 years. When she turned 65, she just rolled onto SS. And her Medicare card showed her Part A was "2004", even though she never used it.

I worked with an analyst who worked at MITRE with SSA after he graduated from MIT with a MS in CompSci in the late 1970s. We worked together in 2007-2009. He said "you think SS is fucked now - it was back in 1980 so imagine how much more fucked it is now."

"There should be some process to verify the eligibility of anyone receiving any government assistance no less frequently than annually."
Remember back with Clinton when he put work requirements on Welfare recipients? A lot managed to get jobs to get off Food Stamps, and many kept Medicaid. Obama quickly reversed all that and people piled on really fast.

My experience: my wife had MS since 2001 (when she was diagnosed.) We had a Long Term Care policy she got at Oracle. Each year a nurse would come by to do a review to ensure she still qualified for coverage. There is no cure for MS, and each year she slowly degraded; from cane, to walker to powerchair to slow dementia. They do the same for para/quads, everyone no matter they verify.

SS Disability is a huge corrupt mess. sure, a lot are disabled and should be covered. However, they need to be validated annually. My wife use to watch Judge Judy (I despised that show!) A lot of people on there were is SSD, and Judy would call them out when it was clear they shouldn't be. "Trust BUT Verify."

Looks like what OPIllini96 feared in happening, at least at the border in Arizona: https://www.youtube.com/watch?…

Bottom line: by percent of GDP and self-sufficiency, they need us more than we need them.

Close the border and permit no trucks registered in Mexico entry until they undergo an inspection here. Cancel all visas from Mexico.

@ilbbaicnl: that’s not a good sign. I predict it’s a matter of time before that policy gets to both PedEast and PedWest in San Ysidro. I know when I was in TJ last month, the foreigners line to get in was longer than usual, because the agents (there were just two on duty - this was on a Saturday night) filled out, stamped, and gave FMM forms to everyone. We didn’t have to pay the $30 FMM fee that night at least, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they started requiring it to enter TJ. That definitely would have a major impact on mongering in the Zona Norte because frankly not as many guys - particularly those going for just a few hours - would be willing to pay.

80% of the people caught with fentanyl on the Mexican border are Americans