Of the countries that we publicly know have nuclear weapons, North Korea seems pretty erratic. I don't think Putin would make a terrible miscalculation. If you think Israel possesses them, I could see them retaliating against Iran in a big throw down between them? As we all know, the U.S. is the only country to actually use them in a fight...and hopefully their conventional arsenal is enough to avoid nuclear weapons in the future.
Political/religious extremism scares me in all forms (even in America), but to think of any of them with access to any nuclear material is scary.
China won't use them on the U.S. because they are more interested in selling stuff to the U.S. If you were running a business, would you want to nuke your best customer? Russia won't use them because they won't need to. They'll eventually win the Ukraine war because they have three times the population of the Ukraine and the Ukrainians will run out of soldiers first. American supplied weapons won't help if there is no one to use them. Also, Americans eventually get tired of these overseas interventions like Vietnam, Afghanistan and the Ukraine and leave. The Russians know that and won't give up.
It would be suicidal for some small country to use them so that won't happen. This leaves the United States. As U.S. policymakers become more aware we are a country in decline and are losing our position as the dominant power on the planet they may be tempted to use them, but I don't think they will. We are totally unprepared for a nuclear attack and always have been. There are almost no bomb shelters. Our military couldn't even stop someone from flying a plane into the Pentagon.
There are a lot of people, including notable scholars and historians, who claim that no weapon has ever been created that has not been used in anger. The United States did use atomic weapons, fission devices, in WW2. Hundreds of thousands died to prevent the deaths of millions. Thermonuclear weapons, fusion devices, have never been used in anger. These are the weapons that can destroy entire metropolitan areas and plunge the globe into an extinction level nuclear winter. These are the weapons that historians fear will still have their moment.
I think they will be used by terrorists. The US does not need to use them, our conventional forces can overwhelm anyone. Israel will never need to use theirs, their conventional forces hold the trump card over all their regional enemies. The UK and France would not use theirs first. North Korea might, although we could repond with overwhelming conventional force. India or Pakistan may still use theirs against each other. India would be foolish to launch first against China. China may follow through on their "Japan Exception" policy if Japan responded to an invasion of Taiwan or closing of the South China Sea. There may be Putin loyalists in the Russian strategic services who would obey a launch command. It would be suicidal for Iran to launch against Israel.
Because Biden and the democrat party (including Obama's administration) are so weak on preventing Iran from creating nuclear weapons, that is the greatest threat. Not only would Iran provide them to terror groups and attempt to retain deniability, but fear of a nuclear Iran is spurring nuclear weapons research in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere. There are hard-line Islamists in SA who would provide nuclear weapons to terrorists. I can also see Iran launching against SA to prevent the latter from obtaining nuclear weapons.
Terrorists attacking the US are most likely (supplied by Iran or eventually SA), Iran at SA and NoKo at RoK and US are second, India v Pakistan and Russia at Ukraine/NATO are third, and China at Japan is fourth. There is a book called "One Second After", detailing a fictional EMP attack against the US that is pretty realistic and very frightening. I suggest it if anyone is interested in losing sleep for a couple of nights.
Iran, under pressure from protests and sanctions will provide a nuke to terrorists under the mistaken impression it will be used against Israel , who will not know who they should make pay for it. Having the best intelligence service in the world, Israel will know and will nuke Iran. Less than 7 years. I look at the rest of my life as a race between who/what dies off first: skiing; me; or the world as we know it.
Israel has 80+ nukes many of which are sub based and why we encourage the Muslims to go after a country who's motto is "never again" has always mystified me. What is going on right now in the world is nor different for Jews than the run up to the Holocaust and they now have the most nationalistic government in their history. The Muslims will overplay their hand, the way stupid players do at hold-em.
How seriously do I hold this belief? I have stopped adding to retirement accounts because who has the largest balance isn't going to matter in the future, so we spend it now.
Overstated concerns as it's just lots of rehetoric from bad actors. Anyone who uses them will literally have the whole world come down on them hard and fast. Normalization of the use of nuclear weapons leads down a path that no nation on earth wants. It would also end in the total destruction of the instigator which defeats the point of using them at all.
Going with 0.1% at best (and that's an uncomfortable number) but the probability has increased from historical norms based on the actions leading to internal instability of these irresponsible actors (Iran, North Korea and RuZZia pricipally). It's less likely state sponsored and more likely from a rogue group resulting from disintegration of the state.
General Miley has more balls in just one hair of his nutsack than bunker Vlad. Scrub gets another 400 rubles for successful troll post. I see a Lada in your future.
If you are talking about a true military nuclear weapon I doubt it. I think the mutually assured destruction aspect of several countries possessing large nuclear arsenals is enough to keep even countries like North Korea or Iran from actually using them.
If you include a dirty bomb rigged up by a terrorist group I still think the odds are low, probably around the 3-5% range.
^ I think the “terrorist” issue is there’s plenty of them out there willing to do it, they just can’t get their hands on it. Let’s face it, there’s probably countries willing to supply the materials but can’t face the risk, because if one is detonated (let’s say a small dirty bomb somewhere) who ever supplied it will be found eventually.
The right wing terrorists are much smaller in numbers than the left wing ones
Additionally the few right wing attacks weve had thus far were mass shooters targeting people, not really property
Its groups like blm that love destroying property, blowing things up, and also targeting people and businesses if they can confirm their race or political views
Q: How likely do you think a nuclear bomb will be used in war or a terrorist attack somewhere in the world over the next decade?
A: Very likely
Q: If you think it’ll happen who do you think will nuke who?
A: USA 🇺🇸 will nuke North Korea 🇰🇵 as a warning to China 🇨🇳 and Russia 🇷🇺 and everyone else in the world to try to perpetuate American imperialism and to maintain American political, economic, cultural, and media influence beyond the boundaries of the United States.
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Political/religious extremism scares me in all forms (even in America), but to think of any of them with access to any nuclear material is scary.
It would be suicidal for some small country to use them so that won't happen. This leaves the United States. As U.S. policymakers become more aware we are a country in decline and are losing our position as the dominant power on the planet they may be tempted to use them, but I don't think they will. We are totally unprepared for a nuclear attack and always have been. There are almost no bomb shelters. Our military couldn't even stop someone from flying a plane into the Pentagon.
The possibility of a Islamic terrorist using a suitcase Nuke, as shown in “24” is probably very close to reality
I think they will be used by terrorists. The US does not need to use them, our conventional forces can overwhelm anyone. Israel will never need to use theirs, their conventional forces hold the trump card over all their regional enemies. The UK and France would not use theirs first. North Korea might, although we could repond with overwhelming conventional force. India or Pakistan may still use theirs against each other. India would be foolish to launch first against China. China may follow through on their "Japan Exception" policy if Japan responded to an invasion of Taiwan or closing of the South China Sea. There may be Putin loyalists in the Russian strategic services who would obey a launch command. It would be suicidal for Iran to launch against Israel.
Because Biden and the democrat party (including Obama's administration) are so weak on preventing Iran from creating nuclear weapons, that is the greatest threat. Not only would Iran provide them to terror groups and attempt to retain deniability, but fear of a nuclear Iran is spurring nuclear weapons research in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere. There are hard-line Islamists in SA who would provide nuclear weapons to terrorists. I can also see Iran launching against SA to prevent the latter from obtaining nuclear weapons.
Terrorists attacking the US are most likely (supplied by Iran or eventually SA), Iran at SA and NoKo at RoK and US are second, India v Pakistan and Russia at Ukraine/NATO are third, and China at Japan is fourth. There is a book called "One Second After", detailing a fictional EMP attack against the US that is pretty realistic and very frightening. I suggest it if anyone is interested in losing sleep for a couple of nights.
Israel has 80+ nukes many of which are sub based and why we encourage the Muslims to go after a country who's motto is "never again" has always mystified me. What is going on right now in the world is nor different for Jews than the run up to the Holocaust and they now have the most nationalistic government in their history. The Muslims will overplay their hand, the way stupid players do at hold-em.
How seriously do I hold this belief? I have stopped adding to retirement accounts because who has the largest balance isn't going to matter in the future, so we spend it now.
Going with 0.1% at best (and that's an uncomfortable number) but the probability has increased from historical norms based on the actions leading to internal instability of these irresponsible actors (Iran, North Korea and RuZZia pricipally). It's less likely state sponsored and more likely from a rogue group resulting from disintegration of the state.
General Miley has more balls in just one hair of his nutsack than bunker Vlad. Scrub gets another 400 rubles for successful troll post. I see a Lada in your future.
If you include a dirty bomb rigged up by a terrorist group I still think the odds are low, probably around the 3-5% range.
Additionally the few right wing attacks weve had thus far were mass shooters targeting people, not really property
Its groups like blm that love destroying property, blowing things up, and also targeting people and businesses if they can confirm their race or political views
"Additionally the few right wing attacks weve had thus far were mass shooters targeting people, not really property"
The good people of Oklahoma City might disagree with you on that one. It has been a while, but that is still the worst domestic terrorist attack.
I will play along and answer your questions:
Q: How likely do you think a nuclear bomb will be used in war or a terrorist attack somewhere in the world over the next decade?
A: Very likely
Q: If you think it’ll happen who do you think will nuke who?
A: USA 🇺🇸 will nuke North Korea 🇰🇵 as a warning to China 🇨🇳 and Russia 🇷🇺 and everyone else in the world to try to perpetuate American imperialism and to maintain American political, economic, cultural, and media influence beyond the boundaries of the United States.