Recession over?

9/6/2009 2:14:22 AM

I say no. What do you say? Are you planning on spending as much money, about the same, or less than what you used to back in 2007? I'm spending less. I say that but I haven't been tracking it very well. I believe it's less because I'm not making any more money than I did last year. I'm not spending any money this weekend on strip clubs.

Even if government spending causes a temporary increase in GDP, I don't believe that will last if consumer spending is still contracting. Another million people out of work in another 4 months should put a further damper on consumer spending. Maybe things will get twice as good as in August and that number will only be another 500,000 people out of work in 4 months. For projections, I read the old style of counting unemployed would put the current unemployment at 16.8%.
http://www.shadowstats.com/
The height of the unemployment I believe could reach about 33% in another 3 years. That would be worse than the Great Depression. At least our money is still available and still worth something for those of us working. Hopefully our government doesn't make it worthless.

16 comments

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Clubber

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15 years ago

Over or not, I doubt I'll ever recover what I lost in my investments during my lifetime. One positive to being older, I guess.

Dougster

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15 years ago

Yes, I agree the recession is over. Was fun while it lasted.

Player11

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15 years ago

I don't think its over by a long shot. At this stage of my life money for pussy is primary. I am in late career, just fun and games; no face time for me. Investing for the future is secondary. The key is for me is having plenty of cash, cut spending, and concentrate on the girl which delivers the best value. Yesterday is history, today is a gift, and the future is a mystery. I want to get the most out of today. A dancer friend told me "If you have a leg in the past and another in the future, your pissing on yourself in the present."

deogol

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15 years ago

Oh we have a lot more pain to go through. No matter the accounting system, the banks are still carrying crap that was bankrupting them under "mark to market." They are getting more of it every day with more than 1 out of 10 mortgages going bad just in California.

October is traditionally hard on the stock markets. I expect it to be really bad this go around - so cash out while you can.

Christmas will be interesting, but with all the unemployment (and traditional lay offs around that time) sales are gonna suck.

And yes, I believe the statistics handed out by the government are sugar coated to how fucked we really are. I think everyone has a friend who is screwed one way or another by this economy.

CTQWERTY

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15 years ago

Well, the problem began in the banking sector. We've stabilized it by writing government checks. But where does the financing come to even remotely replace what built the bubble in the first place? Until the banks start lending again, a major booster for the economy is off-line.

If we get 33% unemployment, what will be the point of going to work? Crime will be a problem and folks will break in to steal whatever you have of value as soon as you leave. Then there's what CNBC's Jim Cramer experienced: someone breaking in and living in his apartment when he went to work during the day. Talk about a time share!

casualguy

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15 years ago

Jim Cramer has an apartment? It must be a large one if someone was living in it while he was at work. I'm concerned about the crime rate going up too. I mean what are the extra million people who are going to run out of unemployment benefits by the end of the year going to do without a job or money? Eventually their savings will be depleted and banks and friends will cut off their loans. Unfortunately most of my money in locked up in a 401K which I can't take out or move it to something safer unless I quit working first and I don't want to do that. Seems like congress should pass a law that lets employees transfer their own vested money in 401K accounts out to a self managed brokerage IRA if they've been working for a company for over 10 years.

casualguy

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15 years ago

Oh, I have thought of the solution. Just wait for one of my relatives to lose their job and then I would have my own home protection plan. One relative worried about his job won awards for being a marksman. He can shoot. Unfortunately someone already broke into his house and stole all his rifles and shotguns and everything else of value. The other thing on my side is that people fear the police here. They are well trained and well armed in my little town. The city appraised everyone's home here at a higher value a year ago so now we have one of the highest appreciating areas in the country. Now we get to pay more taxes. I guess it could be worse. I read that half of all mortgages may be underwater within a couple of years.

casualguy

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15 years ago

Half of all mortgages across the nation. Mortgages here can't be underwater if their home is worth more.

jess_cowgirl84

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15 years ago

Oddly enough, I've made more this year than probably any years past...but that could be because I needed it more and worked harder...however on a disappointing note, I am spending more as an outcome of my "sense of accomplishment"! *such backward ass thinking* :D

gatorfan

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15 years ago

I think the news media loves to sensationalize topics like this and keep talking about it as if they know. All we need to know: are we making better money than before this stuff happened and do things feel better than before this happened. With the media talking about everything bad all the time, how are we ever going to feel better.

txtittyfan

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15 years ago

Statistically, the pundits will begin saying it is over. After all, after a severe decline we are apt to get a bounce to "replenish the pantry". However, IMO there has been a radical shift in the populations attitude to consumption. We are no longer going to be purchasing for bigger and better, but will purchase for replacement of old or broken. This will diminish demand until the populus feels better which will take quite a few years. I still believe we have a few years before a sustained recovery. There was an interesting post in a website "zero hedge.com" back in July that had some interesting analysis of this so called recession is over argument. Long term we could be in a serious hurt as the next bubble being created is the "US Govt" bubble on the international scene.

how

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15 years ago

"Recession" has a specific meaning, 2(+) consecutive quarters of declining GDP. So, whether anyone "thinks" or "believes" the recession is over, it is actually not.

What about predictions for the near future in our economy? Given the actions taken by congressional leadership since they took over in January 2007, I'd say we can expect greater devaluation of our currency and a jolt of inflation as they pump more paper currency into the system.

Player11

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15 years ago

The recession has not kept me from enjoying SC activities or meeting a girl for some otc fun.

It has put a dent in what I contribute to my investments.

CTQWERTY

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15 years ago

CasualGuy, I am alluding to the first couple of chapters of Jim Cramer's autobiography. I believe it goes he went out to LA to work as a reporter after college, and, not making much, rented an apartment. He kept coming home at night and noticed things moved. Then one morning he believes he saw a guy waiting around the corner of his place for him to leave for work. He then left and never came back, preferring to sleep in his car under the freeway with his Boy Scout Tomahawk in one hand and a loaded handgun in the other.

Oh, the early years when a freshly minted college grad is making their way in the world!

casualguy

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15 years ago

Thanks for explaining that CTQWERTY. I thought maybe it was more recent. I don't follow Jim Cramer too much since he seems more like a comedian to me. He does have a few useful pointers though and is entertaining at times.

CTQWERTY

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15 years ago

I agree he can be over-the-top. But his first book was a little bit of a surprising read.

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