I am not going. Went to the Oaks once, that was enough for me. Nice time, not worth the premium price. I imagine the Derby is even less worth it for us peons.
Clubs are usually crowded with tourists and out of town dancers as well. Waste of time most years, though I’ve gotten several phone numbers and hookups from locals in the weeks *following* the Derby.
I'm not going this year. I've done the infield before and it's just too many people and no view of the track. Next time I go, it will be in the grandstand, but I have too many vacations planned this summer to splurge on going this weekend.
Anyways, I bet on the race every year and I like a good longshot and some risky box exotics. I'm leaning towards My Boy Jack and Bolt d'oro, but haven't yet decided who the third in my trifecta will be.
With a twenty horse field, I am probably going to do a conservative show bet because with so much traffic, the best horse might not even be able to get in position to win. I am more used to betting on 8-10 thoroughbreds in a race versus 20. I like Justify, but am also high on Audible, Bolt d'Oro, and Noble Indy. I just bet on my phone with the TVG app. I am pretty big into horse racing. I hit a superfecta at Keeneland a couple weeks back.
@sinclair - what was the payout on your superfecta? I've hit a few trifectas, but never a super. I use twinspires.com for my horse bets.
The derby is tough to bet on with the size of the field. I hardly ever win money on it, but have come out on top the past 5 Preakness races. Something about the slightly smaller field and track along with getting to watch how the horses ran the derby (and further analyze the ones just joining in for the 2nd leg) just works well with my pick process.
a21985, The payout was $480. I have known a number of people who went to the Kentucky Derby and paid $50-80 (depending how early they bought the ticket) to stand in the infield. They said they could not even see the race. If you are not somebody, good chance at getting in the grandstand. I was talking to a stripper the other day who went to the Derby last year. She said she was not even able to get inside Churchill Downs before the race there were so many people. She missed it.
You don't go to the infield on Derby day to watch the race...
The Churchill Downs organization used to pay various groups, such as Boy Scouts, Girl Scouts, and various other charitable organizations, to clean up the infield after Oaks day, and again after Derby day.
They had to stop allowing minors to participate because of all the used runners, underwear, drug paraphernalia that they were seeing.
I currently live in Louisville and have gone the last few years. Sometimes in box seats, sometimes infield. On a nice day, infield is perfect for me.
That said, skipping it this year to go to a music festival in Baltimore! I'll catch the most exciting 2 minutes in sports while listening to my 80's band lol.
@Countryman5434: If you can say after after going to Blue Diamond, I question that you’ve ever even been there. One of the least “waste of time” clubs in the entire town. :)
Race 12 (Saturday, May 5, 2018: 6:50 p.m./ET; 3:50 p.m./PT)
One mile and a quarter on the main track (three-year-olds)
There are plenty of compelling storylines surrounding the supremely talented crop of three-year-olds racing in this year’s Kentucky Derby (G1). For example, #7 JUSTIFY and #16 MAGNUM MOON, both undefeated colts, will set out to end the Apollo curse, while #18 VINO ROSSO, one of four runners entered for trainer Todd Pletcher, looks to become the first Wood Memorial (G2) winner to score a victory on Derby Day in over 30 years. Additionally, the royally bred #14 MENDELLSOHN, a half sibling to BEHOLDER and INTO MISCHIEF, will attempt to give trainer Aidan O’Brien his first Kentucky Derby (G1) winner, while #6 GOOD MAGIC will try to hand trainer Chad Brown his debut Derby victory. Let’s analyze the field for this year’s Kentucky Derby (G1) in post position order:
#1 FIRENZE FIRE has been beaten by nine and 11 lengths, respectively, in his past two starts (the Gotham (G3) and Wood Memorial (G2).) He draws the dreaded rail and will need a complete ‘180’ to get the job done.
#2 FREE DROP BILLY won the Breeders Futurity (G1) as a two-year-old but has failed to make a trip to the winner’s circle in four starts since. In those four races, he has finished behind #5 AUDIBLE, #12 ENTICED, #4 FLAMEAWAY and #6 GOOD MAGIC. His pedigree suggests he will love going longer and he may get the right trip sitting off a projected fast pace. That said, he may be a notch or two below the best signed on. Siding with others.
#3 PROMISES FULFILLED took the field gate to wire in the Fountain of Youth (G2), then set the pace in the Florida Derby (G1) but faded badly down the lane, losing by 35 lengths. That poor effort last time out is a definite cause for concern. Passing on the likely pacesetter.
#4 FLAMEAWAY won the Sam F. Davis (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs on February 10 and has since finished in the runner-up spot in both the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) and Bluegrass (G2). The Bluegrass (G2) was an especially good effort, but he was clearly second best to #6 GOOD MAGIC and will need to find a way to make up a couple of lengths on that rival while defeating a bunch of tough new customers. It seems like an in-the-money finish may be his ceiling.
#5 AUDIBLE comes into the Derby with two straight wins at Gulfstream Park. He beat #2 FREE DROP BILLY in the Holy Bull (G2) two starts ago and most recently won the Florida Derby (G1), defeating #9 HOFBURG and #3 PROMISES FULLFILLED. His pedigree (by INTO MISCHIEF out of a GILDED TIME mare) says he may have distance limitations, but keep in mind that horses like NYQUIST and CALIFORNIA CHROME outran their ‘miler’ pedigrees in the Derby. This Todd Pletcher trainee has never shown signs that he won’t be able to run farther, either. Merits loads of respect.
#6 GOOD MAGIC won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) in fine style, stamping himself as a major three-year-old to watch. So far this year, the $1,000,000 purchase ran third in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and rebounded with a flashy win in the Bluegrass (G2). This is his third start off a four-month layoff, meaning he should be in peak form for trainer Chad Brown. On top of that, his pedigree (by CURLIN out of a HARD SPUN mare) suggests he’ll be fine racing this classic distance. In with a big shot.
#7 JUSTIFY has always been touted as the real deal and has so far delivered in all three lifetime starts. He broke his maiden with the greatest of ease in February, stalked the pace and blew by his rivals in an allowance race one month later, and recently defeated #11 BOLT D’ORO in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). If he were to win this race, he would be the first horse since APOLLO (in 1882) to win the Kentucky Derby (G1) without having run in his two-year-old year. Your likely favorite resides in a barn (bob Baffert) looking for their fifth Kentucky Derby (G1) win.
#8 LONE SAILOR finished a neck behind #19 NOBLE INDY in the Louisiana Derby (G2) and was well beaten by #15 INSTILLED REGARD and #12 ENTICED in prior starts. His only win in eight career races came over a sloppy track at Saratoga as a two-year-old. He’ll need to run a career best to have any shot at defeating the best three-year-olds of this crop. Seems outmatched on paper.
#9 HOFBURG is a half sibling to Grade I winner EMOLLIENT. This Juddmonte Farm homebred has only three starts to his name, with a maiden special weight win two starts ago and a second place finish to #5 AUDIBLE in the Florida Derby (G1). Clearly this guy has some upside, but he lacks seasoning and hasn’t run a race that suggests he can beat the very best entered. Won’t be easy for him to win.
#10 MY BOY JACK won the Southwest (G3) three starts back over a muddy surface after sitting far off a fast pace. In two starts since then, the Keith Desormeaux trainee ran third in the Louisiana Derby (G2) behind #19 NOBLE INDY and #8 LONE SAILOR after suffering a very wide trip and most recently won the Lexington (G3) three weeks ago. The good news for this deep closer is he should get a fast and contentious pace to run into.
#11 BOLT D’ORO is a consistent colt that has never finished worse than third in six lifetime starts. He won the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and FrontRunner (G1) at Santa Anita as a two-year-old and suffered a wide trip in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), finishing a better-than-looked third. Most recently, the son of MEDAGLIA D’ORO placed second behind #7 JUSTIFY in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). Expect this guy to sit in midfield and make one run. With a fast tempo projected, things could set up right for him, so mark him down as a contender.
#12 ENTICED was an easy winner of the Gotham (G3) at Aqueduct and came back to run second in the Wood Memorial (G2) to #18 VINO ROSSO. We know this guy likes the Churchill Downs dirt; as a two-year-old, he beat #3 PROMISES FULFILLED in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). A nice horse, yes, but this ‘capper feels he might not be quite good enough to wear the roses.
#13 BRAVAZO won the Risen Star (G2) at big odds of 22/1 in March. He came back in the Louisiana Derby (G2) five weeks later and ran a clunker, finishing over 21 lengths behind the winner. The aforementioned run is simply too hard to ignore. Pass.
#14 MENDELSSOHN was purchased for $3,000,000 by the Coolmore partners, which makes sense considering he is a half-brother to champions BEHOLDER and INTO MISCHIEF. The son of SCAT DADDY won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) last year and most recently beat Kentucky Oaks (G1) contender RAYYA by 18 lengths in the UAE Derby (G2), an effort that was nothing short of eye-popping. This is the only horse to run a mile-and-three-sixteenths prepping for this race. Only having to go a sixteenth of a mile longer, he should have no problem with the added distance. The only concern is he faces a much tougher group than what he saw at Meydan and he was racing over a speed-biased track that produced fast times that night. Super talented, nonetheless, and is a major player.
#15 INSTILLED REGARD was a distant third to #7 JUSTIFY and #11 BOLT D’ORO in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). His biggest win to date came in the Lecomte (G3) at Fair Grounds. It appears a minor award is his ceiling unless he significantly improves.
#16 MAGNUM MOON won a pair of ‘Derby preps at Oaklawn Park in his last two starts. The Todd Pletcher trainee notched a three-and-a half-length victory in the Rebel (G2) on March 17 and followed that up with a decisive score in the Arkansas Derby (G1) one month later. The talent is there to be a major force, but he lacks seasoning. In fact, he drifted out badly in the final furlong of the Arkansas Derby (G1), which is a concern for many handicappers. Will be attempting to win his fifth start in five lifetime races. Contender.
#17 SOLOMINI hit the board in the Rebel (G2) and Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park in his past two races, both times finishing behind #16 MAGNUM MOON. He also ran second to #6 GOOD MAGIC in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) as a two-year-old. The ‘other’ Bob Baffert entrant does not have much acceleration and typically grinds away down the lane. Needs to pick up the pace a bit.
#18 VINO ROSSO was a disappointing fourth in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) two starts ago but turned it around in the Wood Memorial (G2), stalking the pace before out-finishing #12 ENTICED to the wire while drawing off late. His pedigree (by CURLIN out of a STREET CRY mare) suggests he may even improve more as the distances get longer and he gets older. Another legit player from the Todd Pletcher barn.
#19 NOBLE INDY, the fourth Todd Pletcher entrant, ran third in the Risen Star (G2) two months ago and returned to the Fair Grounds on March 24 to defeat BRAVAZO and subsequent Lexington Stakes (G3) winner MY BOY JACK in the Louisiana Derby (G2). ‘INDY was game in victory that afternoon, holding off the two aforementioned challengers through the length of the lane. Improving at the right time, but this is the acid test.
#20 COMBATANT has yet to win in five races against winners. That said, his only career victory came over the Churchill Downs dirt, so we know he likes this track. His most recent effort resulted in a fourth place finish behind #16 MAGNUM MOON and #17 SOLOMINI in the Arkansas Derby (G1). Tough post and tough spot.
#21 BLENDED CITIZEN is on the also eligible list and needs a defection to get in the race.
14 comments
Clubs are usually crowded with tourists and out of town dancers as well. Waste of time most years, though I’ve gotten several phone numbers and hookups from locals in the weeks *following* the Derby.
Tequila juleps? Bourbon-infused tacos? Fancy Derby sombreros? The opportunities are endless!
Anyways, I bet on the race every year and I like a good longshot and some risky box exotics. I'm leaning towards My Boy Jack and Bolt d'oro, but haven't yet decided who the third in my trifecta will be.
The derby is tough to bet on with the size of the field. I hardly ever win money on it, but have come out on top the past 5 Preakness races. Something about the slightly smaller field and track along with getting to watch how the horses ran the derby (and further analyze the ones just joining in for the 2nd leg) just works well with my pick process.
The Churchill Downs organization used to pay various groups, such as Boy Scouts, Girl Scouts, and various other charitable organizations, to clean up the infield after Oaks day, and again after Derby day.
They had to stop allowing minors to participate because of all the used runners, underwear, drug paraphernalia that they were seeing.
That said, skipping it this year to go to a music festival in Baltimore! I'll catch the most exciting 2 minutes in sports while listening to my 80's band lol.
Won a trifecta 4-5 years ago with some buddies. We each put in $20 and hit for about $4000. Broke down to about $500-600 each.
One mile and a quarter on the main track (three-year-olds)
There are plenty of compelling storylines surrounding the supremely talented crop of three-year-olds racing in this year’s Kentucky Derby (G1). For example, #7 JUSTIFY and #16 MAGNUM MOON, both undefeated colts, will set out to end the Apollo curse, while #18 VINO ROSSO, one of four runners entered for trainer Todd Pletcher, looks to become the first Wood Memorial (G2) winner to score a victory on Derby Day in over 30 years. Additionally, the royally bred #14 MENDELLSOHN, a half sibling to BEHOLDER and INTO MISCHIEF, will attempt to give trainer Aidan O’Brien his first Kentucky Derby (G1) winner, while #6 GOOD MAGIC will try to hand trainer Chad Brown his debut Derby victory. Let’s analyze the field for this year’s Kentucky Derby (G1) in post position order:
#1 FIRENZE FIRE has been beaten by nine and 11 lengths, respectively, in his past two starts (the Gotham (G3) and Wood Memorial (G2).) He draws the dreaded rail and will need a complete ‘180’ to get the job done.
#2 FREE DROP BILLY won the Breeders Futurity (G1) as a two-year-old but has failed to make a trip to the winner’s circle in four starts since. In those four races, he has finished behind #5 AUDIBLE, #12 ENTICED, #4 FLAMEAWAY and #6 GOOD MAGIC. His pedigree suggests he will love going longer and he may get the right trip sitting off a projected fast pace. That said, he may be a notch or two below the best signed on. Siding with others.
#3 PROMISES FULFILLED took the field gate to wire in the Fountain of Youth (G2), then set the pace in the Florida Derby (G1) but faded badly down the lane, losing by 35 lengths. That poor effort last time out is a definite cause for concern. Passing on the likely pacesetter.
#4 FLAMEAWAY won the Sam F. Davis (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs on February 10 and has since finished in the runner-up spot in both the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) and Bluegrass (G2). The Bluegrass (G2) was an especially good effort, but he was clearly second best to #6 GOOD MAGIC and will need to find a way to make up a couple of lengths on that rival while defeating a bunch of tough new customers. It seems like an in-the-money finish may be his ceiling.
#5 AUDIBLE comes into the Derby with two straight wins at Gulfstream Park. He beat #2 FREE DROP BILLY in the Holy Bull (G2) two starts ago and most recently won the Florida Derby (G1), defeating #9 HOFBURG and #3 PROMISES FULLFILLED. His pedigree (by INTO MISCHIEF out of a GILDED TIME mare) says he may have distance limitations, but keep in mind that horses like NYQUIST and CALIFORNIA CHROME outran their ‘miler’ pedigrees in the Derby. This Todd Pletcher trainee has never shown signs that he won’t be able to run farther, either. Merits loads of respect.
#6 GOOD MAGIC won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) in fine style, stamping himself as a major three-year-old to watch. So far this year, the $1,000,000 purchase ran third in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and rebounded with a flashy win in the Bluegrass (G2). This is his third start off a four-month layoff, meaning he should be in peak form for trainer Chad Brown. On top of that, his pedigree (by CURLIN out of a HARD SPUN mare) suggests he’ll be fine racing this classic distance. In with a big shot.
#7 JUSTIFY has always been touted as the real deal and has so far delivered in all three lifetime starts. He broke his maiden with the greatest of ease in February, stalked the pace and blew by his rivals in an allowance race one month later, and recently defeated #11 BOLT D’ORO in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). If he were to win this race, he would be the first horse since APOLLO (in 1882) to win the Kentucky Derby (G1) without having run in his two-year-old year. Your likely favorite resides in a barn (bob Baffert) looking for their fifth Kentucky Derby (G1) win.
#8 LONE SAILOR finished a neck behind #19 NOBLE INDY in the Louisiana Derby (G2) and was well beaten by #15 INSTILLED REGARD and #12 ENTICED in prior starts. His only win in eight career races came over a sloppy track at Saratoga as a two-year-old. He’ll need to run a career best to have any shot at defeating the best three-year-olds of this crop. Seems outmatched on paper.
#9 HOFBURG is a half sibling to Grade I winner EMOLLIENT. This Juddmonte Farm homebred has only three starts to his name, with a maiden special weight win two starts ago and a second place finish to #5 AUDIBLE in the Florida Derby (G1). Clearly this guy has some upside, but he lacks seasoning and hasn’t run a race that suggests he can beat the very best entered. Won’t be easy for him to win.
#10 MY BOY JACK won the Southwest (G3) three starts back over a muddy surface after sitting far off a fast pace. In two starts since then, the Keith Desormeaux trainee ran third in the Louisiana Derby (G2) behind #19 NOBLE INDY and #8 LONE SAILOR after suffering a very wide trip and most recently won the Lexington (G3) three weeks ago. The good news for this deep closer is he should get a fast and contentious pace to run into.
#11 BOLT D’ORO is a consistent colt that has never finished worse than third in six lifetime starts. He won the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and FrontRunner (G1) at Santa Anita as a two-year-old and suffered a wide trip in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), finishing a better-than-looked third. Most recently, the son of MEDAGLIA D’ORO placed second behind #7 JUSTIFY in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). Expect this guy to sit in midfield and make one run. With a fast tempo projected, things could set up right for him, so mark him down as a contender.
#12 ENTICED was an easy winner of the Gotham (G3) at Aqueduct and came back to run second in the Wood Memorial (G2) to #18 VINO ROSSO. We know this guy likes the Churchill Downs dirt; as a two-year-old, he beat #3 PROMISES FULFILLED in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). A nice horse, yes, but this ‘capper feels he might not be quite good enough to wear the roses.
#13 BRAVAZO won the Risen Star (G2) at big odds of 22/1 in March. He came back in the Louisiana Derby (G2) five weeks later and ran a clunker, finishing over 21 lengths behind the winner. The aforementioned run is simply too hard to ignore. Pass.
#14 MENDELSSOHN was purchased for $3,000,000 by the Coolmore partners, which makes sense considering he is a half-brother to champions BEHOLDER and INTO MISCHIEF. The son of SCAT DADDY won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) last year and most recently beat Kentucky Oaks (G1) contender RAYYA by 18 lengths in the UAE Derby (G2), an effort that was nothing short of eye-popping. This is the only horse to run a mile-and-three-sixteenths prepping for this race. Only having to go a sixteenth of a mile longer, he should have no problem with the added distance. The only concern is he faces a much tougher group than what he saw at Meydan and he was racing over a speed-biased track that produced fast times that night. Super talented, nonetheless, and is a major player.
#15 INSTILLED REGARD was a distant third to #7 JUSTIFY and #11 BOLT D’ORO in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). His biggest win to date came in the Lecomte (G3) at Fair Grounds. It appears a minor award is his ceiling unless he significantly improves.
#16 MAGNUM MOON won a pair of ‘Derby preps at Oaklawn Park in his last two starts. The Todd Pletcher trainee notched a three-and-a half-length victory in the Rebel (G2) on March 17 and followed that up with a decisive score in the Arkansas Derby (G1) one month later. The talent is there to be a major force, but he lacks seasoning. In fact, he drifted out badly in the final furlong of the Arkansas Derby (G1), which is a concern for many handicappers. Will be attempting to win his fifth start in five lifetime races. Contender.
#17 SOLOMINI hit the board in the Rebel (G2) and Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park in his past two races, both times finishing behind #16 MAGNUM MOON. He also ran second to #6 GOOD MAGIC in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) as a two-year-old. The ‘other’ Bob Baffert entrant does not have much acceleration and typically grinds away down the lane. Needs to pick up the pace a bit.
#18 VINO ROSSO was a disappointing fourth in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) two starts ago but turned it around in the Wood Memorial (G2), stalking the pace before out-finishing #12 ENTICED to the wire while drawing off late. His pedigree (by CURLIN out of a STREET CRY mare) suggests he may even improve more as the distances get longer and he gets older. Another legit player from the Todd Pletcher barn.
#19 NOBLE INDY, the fourth Todd Pletcher entrant, ran third in the Risen Star (G2) two months ago and returned to the Fair Grounds on March 24 to defeat BRAVAZO and subsequent Lexington Stakes (G3) winner MY BOY JACK in the Louisiana Derby (G2). ‘INDY was game in victory that afternoon, holding off the two aforementioned challengers through the length of the lane. Improving at the right time, but this is the acid test.
#20 COMBATANT has yet to win in five races against winners. That said, his only career victory came over the Churchill Downs dirt, so we know he likes this track. His most recent effort resulted in a fourth place finish behind #16 MAGNUM MOON and #17 SOLOMINI in the Arkansas Derby (G1). Tough post and tough spot.
#21 BLENDED CITIZEN is on the also eligible list and needs a defection to get in the race.